The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXXII: Arizona

With Election Day now four weeks away, the Bullet Train to November is speeding fast and showing no signs of stopping. Today, the train rolls westward from the Southern charm of Georgia to a landscape familiar to one very familiar face in the 2008 election...

ARIZONA

The last of the contiguous 48 states (and comprising the southwestern arm of the Four Corners), Arizona was the fastest growing state in the Union in 2006. What became Arizona was first part of Spain, and later evolved into part of Mexico. The Mexican-American War led to Mexico surrendering its northern territories to the United States which almost went bankrupt due to the purchase, followed by the Gadsden Purchase of 1853 which involved the acquisition of areas south of the Gila River. What was the western half of the Territory of New Mexico eventually became the Arizona Territory which evolved into the 48th state in the Union on February 14, 1912.

The landscape of Arizona is diverse, with two metropolitan areas that have dramatically different climates: Flagstaff, situated in northern Arizona, tends to have many days where the low temperature is below freezing, while the Phoenix and Yuma areas further south are home to some of the hottest temperatures (over 100°F) in the country during the summer months. Additionally, a monsoon season is present in this state during the summer which produces a significant amount of the state's rainfall. Many diverse geographical features exist here as well, including the Grand Canyon, a colorful gorge created by the Colorado River that is one of the seven natural wonders of the world situated in a namesake national park that is one of the nation's first, as well as various mountains and plateaus. Spring training is also a common sight in Arizona, as it is home to the Cactus League that plays host to such teams as the Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers and its home team, the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Since the 1950s, Arizona has largely voted for Republicans at the presidential level with the exception of Bill Clinton's 1996 victory here. The Grand Canyon State introduced America to U.S. Senator Barry Goldwater, whose 1964 presidential campaign revived American conservatism and paved the way for a foundation that culminated in the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan. This year, Arizona's senior U.S. Senator (and Goldwater's successor at this position), John McCain is the Republican presidential nominee. Not all in Arizona is red, though. Governor Janet Napolitano, a Democrat, was reelected in 2006 with 62.6 percent of the vote, and the state's congressional delegation is split at 4-4. Additionally, southern Arizona has been more favorable to Democrats as well as moderate Republicans. This year, with McCain at the top of the GOP ticket, Republicans will attempt to take back two seats it lost in 2006, while Democrats look to build on their recent gains.

District 1 (S-Factor 2.0 GOP): Plagued by scandal (plus indictments) and a poor GOP climate, Rick Renzi is calling it a career after three terms in a district that includes much of Northern Arizona (Flagstaff, Casa Grande, Prescott and the Navajo Nation). The Democrats are thrilled about their candidate, State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick, who has
raised $768K in individual funds and $197K in PAC money (as of June 2008), and has the support of the D-Trip. The Republicans are fielding Sydney Hay, who is President of the Arizona Mining Association. Compared to Kirkpatrick, however, fundraising totals for Hay have not been as rosy: $242K indie, $52K PAC, also as of last June. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 8.0 GOP): Trent Franks has represented this northwestern Arizona district that cuts across northwestern suburbs of Phoenix (Glendale, Peoria, Surprise), Lake Havasu City, and includes a small strip that stretches eastward to take in the Hopi reservation (which is separate from the Navajo reservation due to longstanding tensions between the two tribes). Franks is favored to win re-election over retired professor and music conductor John Thrasher, who challenged Franks in 2006. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 5.8 GOP): John Shadegg has generally had no trouble winning this district that stretches across northern areas of Phoenix and Maricopa County. Democrat and tax attorney Bob Lord has raised impressive numbers against Shadegg, has garnered the attention of the D-Trip, and looks to gain voters disillusioned with Shadegg's initial decision not to seek re-election earlier this year...and then un-retire. However, the district's Republican leanings give Shadegg the edge. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 14.5 DEM): Ed Pastor should have no trouble defeating manufacturing executive Don Karg in this heavily Hispanic district situated in the heart of Phoenix. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 3.3 GOP): While libertarian-leaning and conservative in nature, this Scottsdale- and Tempe-based district in northeastern Maricopa County fell to the Democrats as former Tempe mayor and State Senator Harry Mitchell defeated conservative Republican J.D. Hayworth in the 2006 electoral bloodbath. Given the nature of his district, Mitchell will face a strong challenge from Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, who beat five other Republicans to win the party's nomination and could be helped by John McCain's presidential bid. But Mitchell has a warchest large enough to stay competitive ($1.07 million indie, $628K PAC, and $1.37 million cash on hand vs. Schweikert's $560K indie, $12K PAC, $272K in personal funds, and $521K COH.). Time will tell if McCain's coattails will be of any help to Schweikert. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 11.5 GOP): Jeff Flake has emerged as one of the most vocal fiscal hawks in Congress, consistently opposing many pork barrel projects and offering up amendments to strike them. Love him or hate him, Flake has emerged as an emerging star in the GOP and his district, based in Phoenix's eastern suburbs (including Mesa and Chandler), is heavily Republican and safe for Flake over university librarian Rebecca Schneider. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 9.3 DEM): This largely Democratic, majority-Hispanic district, based in Arizona's southwestern areas, including south Maricopa County, west Tucson and the Yuma area, favor Raúl Grijalva for another term against contractor Joseph Sweeney. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 0.8 GOP): Gabrielle Giffords snagged this competitive southeast Arizona seat that covers parts of Tucson and its suburbs in 2006 by defeating conservative former State Senator Randy Graf, who beat another candidate backed by Giffords' moderate predecessor, Jim Kolbe, the only openly gay Republican in the House at the time. Republicans have recruited a strong candidate in State Senate President Tim Bee, who had the endorsement of Kolbe -- and later lost it. While this bit of news may be quite disappointing, a competitive race will be expected -- with one hurdle -- Giffords has raised a combined total of $2.47 million in individual and PAC donations versus Bee's $1.12 million. Cash on hand: Giffords $2.08 million, Bee $688K. But still a fight worth watching. Prediction: Leans DEM.

Next stop: West Virginia.

UPDATE: Things have gotten more competitive in Pennsylvania's 3rd District. In this Erie-centric district, a poll has recently come out that shows Lake Erie Arboretum Director Kathy Dahlkemper with a slight lead over incumbent Phil English, 49-45. That, along with an increased shot of attention by the D-Trip, bumps the race to Leans GOP. There will be more updates in states that have already gone under the knife with new fundraising totals and plunny of polls coming out in the coming days. Stay tuned!