The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XLIX: Illinois

After traversing through the beaches and citrus groves of Florida, the Bullet Train to November now heads to a very familiar state in the 2008 race for the White House, where this year the political message runs on a message of change...

ILLINOIS

The largest state in the Midwestern United States, Illinois is often seen as a microcosm of the entire country. One such example is the city of Peoria, where it was said within Vaudeville circles that a certain act's success in Peoria would guarantee it success anywhere. The question "Will it play in Peoria?" now applies to test marketing on various subjects from household products to policy polls, of which Peoria remains a frequent test market despite recent demographic changes in other parts of the country.

Illinois boasts the nation's fifth-largest economy worth $589 billion, with leading industries including chemicals, food processing, plastics, coal mining, and electronics, as well as a significant agriculture base that produces soybeans, corn, dairy and cattle among other crops. In fact, the state's corn crops produce 40 percent of the nation's ethanol and its soybean crops rank first among the 50 states in most years. The state is also fifth in electricity production (first in nuclear power capacity) and seventh in consumption, and serves as a major hub for transportation due to its centralized location. While a largely rural state, the state's population is dominated by Chicago, the nation's third-largest city where over one-fifth of the state's 12.8 million residents reside and which serves as a major center of financial services, tourism and publishing.

Illinois has historically been a swing state, but in recent years has become the Midwest's most Democratic state, largely due to the influence of heavily Democratic Chicago as well as recent inroads by Democrats in the traditionally Republican suburbs of Chicago. Outside of Chicagoland, the northern and central portions of the state tend to be more Republican while southern Illinois has traditionally voted Democratic. The state served as the political base of Presidents Abraham Lincoln and Ulysses S. Grant, and the birth state of another president, Ronald Reagan. This year, Barack Obama will attempt to become the third president from the Land of Lincoln and make history as the first African American elected to hold the White House. With that in mind, Illinois' other U.S. Senator, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin will be up for reelection and is heavily favored, and the state's congressional delegation, particularly on the Republican side, will aim to fight back against an expected Obama wave.

District 1 (S-Factor 34.5 DEM): Democrat Bobby Rush has been the standard-bearer for this staunchly Democratic district that covers much of Chicago's South Side as well as such south Cook County suburbs as Evergreen Park and Blue Island. He should have no trouble defeating Republican Cook County correctional officer Antoine Members this year. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 34.5 DEM): In this heavily liberal and Democratic district based in southern suburbs of Chicago including Calumet City, Harvey and Chicago Heights, Democrat Jesse Jackson Jr. (that's right, the son of Jesse Jackson) is heavily favored over Republican Anthony Williams. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 10.5 DEM): Dan Lipinski is a moderate by Chicago Democratic standards, and it subjected him to primary challenges from more liberal Democrats in this western Cook County district that includes parts of Chicago and suburbs such as Berwyn, Palos Hills and Oak Lawn. However, they have not been successful with Lipinski pulling off 53 percent of the vote against more liberal competition and the incumbent is now favored to defeat Republican realtor Michael Hawkins. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 30.3 DEM): This unusual district connects two heavily Hispanic portions of Chicago through a narrow strip along Interstate 294, with the northern portion containing a significant Puerto Rican population and the southern part including a large Mexican population. Incumbent Democrat Luis Gutiérrez, who is of Puerto Rican descent, will be heavily favored to win another term over Republican Daniel Cunningham. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 17.5 DEM): Four years after succeeding Governor Rod Blagojevich in this North Side Chicago district that includes the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, Democrat Rahm Emanuel was rewarded for his work as chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (the D-Trip) in the 2006 Dem takeover with the position of House Democratic Caucus Chairman. This year, Emanuel is favored to defeat Republican commercial real estate broker Tom Hanson. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 2.5 GOP): This historically Republican seat is situated in the bulk of the affluent DuPage County suburbs of Chicago, including such towns as Wheaton, Lombard and Carol Stream as well as parts of northwestern Cook County. After a 32-year reign by the late Henry Hyde, Republican Peter Roskam stepped in to succeed the former Chairman of the House Judiciary (1995-2001) and Foreign Affairs (2001-2007) Committees and notable pro-life advocate (known for the Hyde Amendment), but not without a fight: Roskam had to fend off decorated Iraq War vet and Democrat Tammy Duckworth in a race that some thought would swing in Duckworth's favor due to her enormous war chest ($4.52 million versus Roskam's $3.44 million). In the end, Roskam prevailed with 51 percent of the vote. This year, Roskam will face another Democratic Iraq War vet, former Illinois Homeland Security Advisor Jill Morgenthaler, who the D-Trip has hailed as an "emerging" candidate but lacks the warchest of Duckworth (only $740K in total receipts and $101K cash on hand compared to Roskam's warchest of $2.39 million and COH totals of $694K). Then again, imagine what the impact of an Obama campaign in the Senator's home state can do... Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 34.5 DEM): This district is situated in the downtown and west and south sides of Chicago and some western Cook County suburbs. Longtime Democrat Danny Davis will be heavily favored to knock off Republican businessman and Navy vet Steve Miller. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 4.5 GOP): Democrat Melissa Bean entered Congress in 2004 by upending longtime (think 35 years) Republican Phil Crane in a district that covers several northwestern suburbs of Chicago, including Schaumburg, Palatine and McHenry. Republicans have tried unsuccessfully to unseat Bean, who has crafted a more moderate image in comparison to most other Chicagoland Democrats. Wholesaler and former minor league hockey player Steve Greenberg is the GOP candidate in a district that is historically Republican, but compared to Bean's $3 million in receipts, and $349K cash on hand, Greenberg has raised $940K and has only $24K left in the bank. With Obama at the top of the ballot, it will not be easy to wrest this one out of the Donkey Brigade. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 19.8 DEM): This covers some of Chicago's North Shore suburbs, including Evanston, Skokie, Des Plaines and Niles, as well as part of Chicago's North Side. Generally liberal in orientation, it is heavily favorable territory for Democrat Jan Schakowsky over Republican businessman and Air Force vet Michael Younan. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 10 (S-Factor 3.8 DEM): Parts of Lake County (Waukegan, Highland Park) and some other affluent northern Chicago suburbs (Northbrook, Arlington Heights) fall into this historically Republican district situated along the North Shore that has been the domain of moderate Republican Mark Kirk since he succeeded John Edward Porter in 2000. In 2006, Kirk faced a strong challenge from marketing executive Dan Seals who held the incumbent to 53 percent in 2006. There will be a rematch this time, and with Obama at the top of the ticket, Kirk will need every bit of the $4.83 million he has raised to knock off Seals and his $3 million. Prediction: Tossup.

District 11 (S-Factor 0.8 GOP): With Jerry Weller getting roasted over land deals in Nicaragua among other issues, the incumbent Republican has decided to call it a career after seven terms in this district that largely sits in burgeoning Will County (Joliet) as well as some areas of north central Illinois including Bloomington. The Democrats have scored a major coup with State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson, while Republicans have had quite a scenario: losing its initial nominee, Chicago Ridge police chief and New Lenox mayor Tim Baldermann, when he pulled out of the race. Now they have another, much more well-heeled candidate in businessman Marty Ozinga, who runs a family-owned concrete business. Halvorson is aided by political experience and the ballot presence of Obama, while cash competitiveness (as well as the unpopularity of Governor Blagojevich) may help Ozinga. The polls tell a different story...Halvorson has consistently been in the lead. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 12 (S-Factor 5.0 DEM): Longtime Democrat Jerry Costello will be favored for another term in this southern Illinois district (East St. Louis, Belleville, Carbondale) over college student and Navy vet Tim Richardson. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 13 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): Moderate Republican Judy Biggert has generally won reelection without difficulty in this historically Republican seat based in Chicago's southwestern suburbs including Naperville, Downers Grove, Bolingbrook and Orland Park. Obama's presence at the top of the ticket along with the usual playbook of the Democrats (tie the incumbent to a president who isn't even on the ballot) could be beneficial to marketing executive Scott Harper, who the D-Trip is hailing as an "emerging" candidate. Money talks: Biggert has $1.25 million in receipts, $405K cash on hand, and experience. Harper has $873K raised, $253K available, and the prospect of Obamatails. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 14 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): When former House Speaker Dennis Hastert bid adieu to his historically Republican seat, it launched a free-for-all of sorts with a number of candidates from both parties apiece seeking this district situated largely in the growing Fox Valley exurbs of Chicago (Aurora, Elgin) and stretching out to towns such as DeKalb and Dixon. The Republicans nominated investment banker and dairy magnate Jim Oberweis, a former candidate for U.S. Senate in 2002 and 2004 and for Governor in 2006, to run in a district that also includes the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, or Fermilab. And out of the Fermilab came physicist and businessman Bill Foster, who snagged the nomination for the Democrats. In the end, Foster defeated Oberweis in a special election where he won 53 percent of the vote. Both men are running again, this time with Foster having the advantages of incumbency (and Obamatails present). Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 15 (S-Factor 5.8 GOP): Moderate Republican Tim Johnson will be favored for another term in this Central Illinois district that includes areas such as Champaign, Mattoon and Danville over Vietnam vet and retired State Department employee Steve Cox. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 16 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): Don Manzullo has represented this northern Illinois seat that stretches out from the Rockford area eastward to some suburbs of Chicago such as Crystal Lake since 1992. Barrington Hills Village President Bob Abboud is the Democrat-in-waiting. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 17 (S-Factor 4.8 DEM): Freshman Democrat Phil Hare has no opponents in this district that includes the Decatur, Quincy and Quad Cities (Moline, Rock Island) areas. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 18 (S-Factor 5.3 GOP): Ray LaHood is leaving behind this historically Republican seat based in Peoria and Springfield that landed in his hands in 1994 when he succeeded then-outgoing House Minority Leader Bob Michel in a year when Republicans took control of the House. A wunderkind is the GOP nominee this time around in 27-year old State Representative Aaron Schock, who started his career as a member of the Peoria School Board when he was a 19-year-old Bradley University student and later served as its President before entering his current position in 2004. The Democrats had a rockier situation with finding a nominee, first settling on former NBA coach and TV commentator Dick Versace until he bowed out of the race. Substituting Versace is former radio and television broadcaster Colleen Callahan, who will have an uphill battle of sorts going up against Schock. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 19 (S-Factor 7.5 GOP): John Shimkus represents the most conservative district in Illinois, situated in rural southern Illinois including Springfield, Centralia and Collinsville. The Democrat-in-waiting is Illinois Department of Public Health official Daniel Davis. Prediction: Solid GOP.

Next stop: The last state...