Happy Thanksgiving!

Today is Thanksgiving Day, and like many Americans I will be spending this day with my extended family. Regardless of whatever situation may come, and even though this may not be the best of times but perhaps instead may turn out to be the worst of times in recent memory, we shall be grateful and give thanks for what we have achieved in our daily lives and shall look forward to the future as we pull through in these trying times with an uncertain economy already in progress, a period of transition and rebuilding within our environs, and a daunting challenge to renew our standing in the world. While I personally find it very difficult to display a sense of optimism with the events that have transpired, being optimistic about the future is one aspect that I take into account every day. After all, there is nothing better for me to think about on this day than being thankful to those who have been thankful to me over the years and to hope for a better tomorrow.

Best regards,

Kyle S.

The results are in!

Sorry for the delay, but here are the final results from tonight:

Barack Obama is now the 44th President of the United States, having officially been declared the winner of the race just after the West Coast polls closed.

Democrats have picked up Senate seats in Virginia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Colorado and New Mexico, with competitive races in Georgia, Oregon, Minnesota and Alaska still undecided. The current Senate composition for the 111th Congress is 56 Democrats, 40 Republicans, and 4 seats to be decided.

A number of GOP House seats have gone to the Democrats, though a few seats that were held by Democrats are now in the Republicans' hands (see below for one seat).

The Democrats also picked up a governorship in Missouri.

And here in Fort Bend, the results are a grab bag...

Democrat Chris Bell and Republican Joan Huffman (my two picks) will go to a runoff for the State Senate District 17 seat.

Democrat Richard Morrison has edged Republican Greg Ordeneaux for County Commissioner Precinct 1.

Sugar Land voters supported all four parts of a plan to bring a Cultural Entertainment District here, Missouri City residents voted strongly in favor of a bond issue to improve city parks and the golf course at Quail Valley, and Rosenberg residents (two-thirds in fact) rejected a zoning ordinance proposal.

And in Congressional District 22, Republican Pete Olson defeats incumbent Democrat Nick Lampson to take District 22 back for the Republicans.

As for the White House: John McCain won here...with 50.9 percent compared to 48.6 percent for Obama.

More details later.

Welcome to Election Day 2008

Today is Tuesday, November 4, 2008...Election Day.

Today, all across the United States, millions of Americans will be casting their votes in a historic election that aims to set public policy for the next generation. There are many scenarios that will arise from today's vote, which will aim to shape the destiny of the United States in the coming years.

In America, we will be deciding a new president, the 44th President of the United States. Democrats will look to make history with Senator Barack Obama, who will aim to become the first African American President of the United States, while Republicans will look to move on after the Bush years with Senator John McCain. In addition, a third of the United States Senate (including two special elections), all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, and eleven governorships along with an assortment of ballot initiatives will be at stake. In addition, control of state legislatures is at stake in all 50 states.

In Fort Bend County (my home base), these are the races in my jurisdiction:

• Special election for an open State Senate Seat. This is SD17 which used to be the Kyle Janek seat; former Congressman Chris Bell will attempt to pick up the seat against another Democrat (even though Bell is viewed by the Democratic establishment as the only true Democrat in the race) and four Republican opponents; the leading GOP candidates are former Bush 41 staffer/Republican activist Austen Furse and former State District Judge Joan Huffman. Whether or not a runoff ensues depends on tonight.
  
• The Presidency (of course).
• U.S. Senate (John Cornyn will fight back a dark horse challenge from Rick Noriega).
• Congress (Nick Lampson will attempt to fend off a strong challenge from Pete Olson).
• Various statewide offices, judicial offices and county offices, as well as State Representative (My State Representative, Charlie Howard, is unopposed).
• Four bond proposals related to a new Cultural Entertainment District in Sugar Land, including a minor league baseball stadium, an indoor concert venue, and other facilities along with tax adjustments to pay for the project.
  

Finally, in other parts of Fort Bend, a competitive County Commissioner's race is ongoing, and the community of Weston Lakes is looking to build its inaugural municipal government, among other initiatives.

I will be updating this blog to let you know what is going on...stay tuned!

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part L: New York

And so, after six long months of traversing through the American political landscape, I am proud to say that the Nifty Fifty House Party for 2008 has finally reached its final stop this year. After crossing through the home state of Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, the Bullet Train to November heads eastward to a state that plays a significant role in the American and world economy, and this year, a significant role in the future of Congress...

NEW YORK

From its early beginnings in the 1600s as the Dutch colony known as New Netherlands, the Empire State has played a pivotal role in the life of the United States, whose Constitution was ratified by New York, the 11th state to do so, on July 26, 1788. Much of the state is dotted with forests, rivers and farms, and the nation's largest state park, Adirondack Park, is situated here. Despite its relative sparseness, 92 percent of New Yorkers (the whole state) reside in urban areas largely concentrated around New York City. In fact, its center of population is located in Orange County, an exurban county outside New York City, which comprises two-thirds of the state's population and forms the core of the BosWash megalopolis that stretches from the Boston area to the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C. While it is a slow growth state with a large out-of-state migration rate, New York is a leading destination for immigrants from all over the world; 20 percent of New Yorkers are foreign-born.

The New York economy is the third largest in America, worth $1.02 trillion, which would be the world's 16th largest economy if New York was an entire nation. The state's agricultural outputs include nursery stock, dairy, cattle, maple syrup and various fruits and vegetables including cabbage (the nation's largest producer), onions, apples, cherries and grapes (including 30,000 acres of vineyards). Its industrial sectors include publishing, auto parts, garments and scientific equipment, largely concentrated in Upstate New York, while nanotechnology is a major sector in the Albany and Hudson Valley regions and imaging equipment serves an integral part of Rochester's economy. New York City, the nation's largest city, is a major global cultural and financial center, home to many of the largest corporations in the world, various financial services firms, exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ, and numerous attractions from Lincoln Center and Central Park to Times Square and the Statue of Liberty.

A swing state as recent as 1988, New York has emerged as one of the most Democratic states in the country. The state's political liberalism is largely the result of heavily Democratic New York City, where all but one member of its current congressional delegation is a Democrat, as well as the conservative nature of the current Republican Party establishment. Outside of New York City, its suburbs tend to be swing areas, but have leaned more towards the Democrats in recent years. While Upstate New York tends to be more conservative and Republican than the Big Apple, its Republican base is more moderate in comparison to the national party, while Upstate Democrats tend to do well in more urban areas such as Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester and Albany.

One unique aspect of New York politics is electoral fusion, where multiple political parties (such as the Conservative, Working Families and Independence parties) unite behind one candidate. In New York City, it was used to fight Tammany Hall (via the 1933 election of Republican mayor Fiorello La Guardia), the infamous Democratic machine that controlled the city's political establishment well into the postwar era before collapsing in the 1960s. Conservatives usually back Republicans, while Working Families candidates tend to hand out endorsements to Democrats, and candidates of the Independence Party comprise of candidates from both major parties. This year, Barack Obama is expected to carry New York, which is not surprising given that Republicans last won here in Ronald Reagan's 1984 landslide. Meanwhile, the GOP is being targeted for defeat in four of its six congressional seats, with pickups certain in three cases (and especially in one), and another race being closely fought.

Fusion Legend: R = Republican, D = Democrat, C = Conservative, I = Independence, WF = Working Families

District 1 (S-Factor 3.8 DEM): Since first being elected in 2002, Tim Bishop (D/I/WF) never won this district with more than two-thirds of the vote, and this year, attorney and Iraq War vet Lee Zeldin (R/C) is running a dark horse bid for this otherwise fairly competitive seat based in eastern areas of Long Island, including Riverhead, Centereach, Smithtown, and the Hamptons. In a normal season, it would be a competitive race, but a poor GOP climate nationally will make a pickup opportunity a hard sell. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 8.3 DEM): When Rick Lazio challenged Hillary Clinton for the U.S. Senate seat held by Pat Moynihan in 2000, Steve Israel (D/I/WF) ran for this seat -- and won. Since then, this fairly competitive district, largely based in western Suffolk County including such areas as Huntington, Brentwood, Commack and Babylon, as well as a portion of Oyster Bay in Nassau County, has become a safe seat for the incumbent. Businessman Frank Stalzer (R/C) will try. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 2.5 DEM): In 2006, House Homeland Security Committee Ranking Member Peter King (R/C/I) faced a strong challenge for his historically Republican Long Island seat that includes Levittown, Oyster Bay and Lindenhurst against Nassau County Legislator Dave Mejias, but prevailed with 56 percent of the vote. The only Republican congressman on Long Island, King is heavily favored this year for reelection over economic development consultant Graham Long (D/WF). Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 10.0 DEM): Carolyn McCarthy (D/I/WF) will be favored to defend this seat against Mineola Mayor Jack Martins (R/C), who is running a dark horse campaign for this fairly Democratic district based in southwest Nassau County that includes Valley Stream, Hempstead and Garden City. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 18.0 DEM): Gary Ackerman (D/I/WF) is heavily favored for reelection in this largely liberal district that covers northern areas of Queens (Flushing, Bayside, Jamaica Estates) and Nassau County (Manhasset, Port Washington) over Republican attorney Liz Berney and Conservative retired immigration officer Jun Policarpio. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 38.0 DEM): Gregory Meeks (D/WF) is heavily favored for reelection in this heavily Democratic Queens (Jamaica, Saint Albans, Cambria Heights) district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 7 (S-Factor 27.5 DEM): Incumbent Joe Crowley (D/WF) will cruise to victory in this Bronx (Pelham Bay, Morris Park)/Queens (Jackson Heights, College Point) district for another term over Bronx Conservative Party Treasurer William Britt (R/C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 27.3 DEM): Jerrold Nadler (D/WF) will win another term in this district that cuts across Manhattan's Upper West Side and such neighborhoods as Greenwich Village and SoHo, as well as parts of Brooklyn (Bensonhurst, Seagate, Coney Island) over financial executive Grace Lin (R/C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 14.0 DEM): Anthony Weiner (D/WF) is a potential Democratic candidate for Mayor of New York City in 2009. This year, the Brooklyn (Flatlands, Mill Basin) and Queens (Kew Gardens, Forest Hills)-based incumbent will be heavily favored over Alfred Donohue (C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 10 (S-Factor 39.8 DEM): Ed Towns (D) fended off a primary challenge from hip hop activist, essayist and former reality TV cast member Kevin Powell in the Democratic primary last month and is now heavily favored to defeat Salvatore Grupico (R/C) in this Brooklyn-based (Bedford-Stuyvesant, Canarsie, Ocean Hill) district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 11 (S-Factor 39.3 DEM): Freshman Yvette Clarke (D/WF) is strongly favored for reelection in this district that takes in the heart of Brooklyn, including Crown Heights, Flatbush and Prospect Heights. Republicans are fielding Hugh Carr, and Conservatives have realtor Cartrell Gore. Neither one has a shot. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 12 (S-Factor 32.8 DEM): Nydia Velázquez (D/WF), who in 1992 became the first ever Puerto Rican woman elected to Congress and the current chair of the House Small Business Committee, should have no trouble defeating frequent candidate Allan Romaguera (R/C) in this district that splits across the NYC boroughs of Brooklyn (Red Hook, Sunset Park), Queens (Maspeth, Woodside), and Manhattan (part of the Lower East Side). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 13 (S-Factor 1.3 DEM): While there are many Republican seats that Democrats are targeting this year and have a good shot at snagging, nothing compares to this district based in Staten Island and portions of Brooklyn including Bay Ridge and Dyker Heights. In fact, it was the last seat to become open (minus one death and two primary defeats that took place afterwards). Vito Fossella was favored for reelection to this district, the most Republican of the New York City seats, until he was stopped for a DWI while driving to see his family -- a family other than the one he is actually married to (Fossella was convicted of this charge on October 17th). When it was revealed that he had an extramarital affair and fathered a child out of wedlock, many called for Fossella to resign or retire, the latter of which did happen.

And if Fossella not seeking reelection was enough to turn heads in the "forgotten borough", the process to find a Republican successor was even more startling. One by one, such notables as District Attorney Dan Donovan and State Senator Andrew Lanza passed over the race, and Republicans settled on Wall Street executive Frank Powers, but not without a family feud: his son Fran Powers considered running as the Libertarian nominee. Then, on the morning of June 22nd, the elder Powers died of a heart attack. And so the party started searching again, and a similar crop of candidates (albeit a lower tier) passed on the race as well, leaving the GOP with former State Assemblyman Bob Straniere, who once represented Staten Island, but moved to Manhattan after he was defeated for reelection in a 2004 primary. To quote a former Staten Island Congressman:

"They couldn't have made a worse mistake. The party was already in desperate shape. They've all but buried it."

- Former Congressman Guy Molinari (R-NY, 1981-1989)

Meanwhile, the Democrats came right off the bat with New York City Councilor Mike McMahon (D/WF) who is now favored to win over Conservative high school development director Tim Cochrane and Independence insurance executive Carmine Morano. Given the nature of this odd race and the GOP climate as it stands, I am going to risk my reputation (and me possibly being called a "liberal" which I am certainly not) on this one... Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 14 (S-Factor 26.3 DEM): Carolyn Maloney (D/WF) first assumed this affluent, liberal district in 1992 when she defeated moderate Republican Bill Green for this East Side Manhattan and Queens (Astoria, Sunnyside) district. Republican attorney Robert Heim and Libertarian Isaiah Matos will try. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 15 (S-Factor 42.3 DEM): This district based in Upper Manhattan including Harlem, Washington Heights and Marble Hill has been the domain of House Ways and Means Committee Chair Charlie Rangel (D/WF) since 1971, and Republican paralegal Ed Daniels will find it very difficult to knock off the longtime incumbent. Martín Koppel is running as the Socialist Workers candidate and Craig Schley is running as an independent. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 16 (S-Factor 43.0 DEM): Another tough district for Republicans: José Serrano (D/WF) should have no trouble fending off Ali Mohamed (R/C). George W. Bush only got ten percent here in 2004 and in 2000, six percent in this district based in the Bronx including neighborhoods such as Bedford Park, Melrose, and Fordham. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 17 (S-Factor 21.0 DEM): Eliot Engel (D/I/WF) will easily defeat Robert Goodman (R/C) in a district that covers neighborhoods and towns such as Riverdale and Woodlawn in the Bronx, Nanuet, Suffern and Spring Valley in Rockland County, and Mount Vernon and Yonkers in Westchester County. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 18 (S-Factor 10.5 DEM): Nita Lowey (D/WF) will be heavily favored for another term in this fairly liberal district that covers portions of Westchester (White Plains, Ossining, New Rochelle) and Rockland (New City) counties over Jim Russell (R/C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 19 (S-Factor 1.0 GOP): In 2006, Democrat John Hall scored an upset victory over incumbent Republican Sue Kelly in this district that stretches across several of New York's Hudson Valley suburbs including all of Putnam and parts of Westchester, Orange, Rockland and Dutchess counties. Republicans' chances at taking back this seat were sidelined when Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board Chairman Andrew Saul dropped out of the race despite posting receipts of $1.47 million through March of this year. The Republican nominee is Iraq War vet and national security activist Kieran Michael Lalor. Fundraising is a major obstacle: Lalor trails the incumbent both in receipts ($544K versus Hall's $2.17 million) and money in the bank ($40K versus the incumbent's $465K). Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 20 (S-Factor 2.0 GOP): Kirsten Gillibrand (D/WF) was the Democrats' control switcher in 2006, becoming the 15th Democrat to pickup a Republican seat that year by defeating Republican John Sweeney, who came under fire due to an incident of domestic violence in which his wife had called police complaining that Sweeney had been "knocking her around". And 15 was the magic number Democrats needed to obtain a majority. The Republicans are fighting back with former New York Secretary of State and former state Republican Party Chair Sandy Treadwell (R/C/I), a former journalist for Sports Illustrated. While he is one of the stronger Republican recruits in this cycle and has raised a total of $6.9 million ($5.9 million of which came from his own pocket), a trifecta of obstacles exist: Gillibrand has $4.48 million in total receipts this cycle (with $3.15 million coming from individual donors), the power of incumbency, and a toxic GOP atmosphere in her favor. The district covers a large swath of Upstate New York surrounding the capital city of Albany including Glens Falls and Saratoga Springs in the north and Hudson in the south. Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 21 (S-Factor 8.8 DEM): While the retirement slates are filled with Republicans, longtime Democrat Mike McNulty is one clear exception. The 10-term incumbent decided not to seek reelection to his traditionally Democratic Capital District (Albany, Schenectady, Troy) seat. The Democrats are looking to former New York State Energy Research and Development Authority President and former State Assemblyman Paul Tonko (D/WF) to keep the seat blue. Republicans, meanwhile, are offering Schenectady County Legislator Jim Buhrmaster (R/C). The Independence Party candidate is Albany County Legislator Phil Steck, who unsuccessfully challenged Tonko for the Dem nod. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 22 (S-Factor 6.0 DEM): This is a fairly competitive seat situated in such cities as Binghamton, Ithaca, Poughkeepsie and Middletown, but Maurice Hinchey (D/I/WF) with should have no trouble knocking off teacher and former congressional aide George Phillips (R/C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 23 (S-Factor 0.0): John McHugh (R/C/I) will be favored for another term against attorney Mike Oot (D/WF) in this split Watertown- and Plattsburgh-centric district. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 24 (S-Factor 0.0): In 2006, when longtime Republican Sherwood Boehlert called it a career after 24 years in this Upstate district based in Utica as well as outlying areas of Syracuse, Oneida County District Attorney Mike Arcuri (D/WF) stepped up to the challenge to flip the seat, facing off against Republican State Senator Ray Meier and winning with 54 percent of the vote in what was seen as a highly competitive seat that year. This year, with the advantage of incumbency, Arcuri will be favored to defeat construction executive Richard Hanna (R/C/I), who has been competitive with $744K in total receipts versus Arcuri's $1.48 million (and outpaces the incumbent in the bank, $345K to $132K), but is facing a difficult GOP climate. Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 25 (S-Factor 3.5 DEM): Longtime Republican incumbent Jim Walsh faced a close race in this swingy Syracuse-to-suburban Rochester district where he was held to 51 percent of the vote. Walsh is retiring, but his 2006 challenger, former congressional aide Dan Maffei (D/WF), is running once again and will aim to flip the seat against former Onondaga County Legislature Chairman Dale Sweetland (R/C) and Green and Socialist candidate Howie Hawkins, a co-founder of the United States Green Party. Sweetland has struggled mightly in fundraising, with only $365K in receipts compared to Maffei's $2.01 million. Based those numbers as well as recent polling (double-digit leads for Maffei), for the Elephant Stampede, this seat can be considered a goner. Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 26 (S-Factor 3.3 GOP): In 2006, then-NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds barely prevailed against industralist Jack Davis, 52-48 in a district that connects suburbs in the Buffalo and Rochester areas including North Tonawanda, Greece, Lockport and Batavia. This year, Reynolds is retiring and businessman Chris Lee (R/C/I) has stepped up to the plate to hold the seat for the GOP. On the Dem side, Davis ran again while the D-Trip had high hopes for Iraq War vet Jon Powers, who was seen as a stronger candidate to take the seat for the Democrats. However, Powers ended up finishing second in the primary, but the well-funded Davis didn't snag the nomination. Instead, it went to environmental attorney Alice Kryzan, who eventually got the D-Trip's endorsement. So far, Lee maintains a slight advantage as evidenced by polling numbers as well as fundraising totals, with Lee having raised $1.52 million including $620K of his own money and Kryzan raking in $801K including $157K coming from Kryzan herself. Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 27 (S-Factor 7.3 DEM): Buffalo and its southern suburbs dominate the district of Brian Higgins (D/WF), who won this seat in 2004 when Republican Jack Quinn decided to call it a career. Higgins is favored to win over tanning salon entrepreneur Dan Humiston (R/I) and retired PR executive Budd Schroeder (C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 28 (S-Factor 15.5 DEM): Incumbent Louise Slaughter (D/I/WF), Chairwoman of the House Rules Committee, will be favored in her bid for a 12th term in this district that stretches out from Niagara Falls to the Rochester area. Accountant David Crimmen (R/C) will try to prove otherwise. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 29 (S-Factor 4.8 GOP): Randy Kuhl (R/C/I) represents the most conservative district in the Empire State, situated in the Southern Tier of the state including the Elmira, Corning and Olean areas, as well as suburbs south of Rochester. Kuhl came to Congress in 2004 to succeed moderate Republican Amo Houghton as the standard bearer for this district. But getting reelected has not been easy for Kuhl; in 2006 he only won 52 percent against retired naval officer Eric Massa (D/WF) a former aide to four-star General and 2004 Democratic presidential candidate Wesley Clark who left the GOP over the war in Iraq. Massa is running again, and the fundraising picture tells a story: both men are waging competitive bids with Massa posting $1.79 million in total receipts and $234K cash on hand and Kuhl racking up $1.35 million with $209K in the bank. One recent independent poll shows Kuhl trailing Massa in recent polling, albeit by single digits. Not surprisingly, this is a bad GOP year: a toxic climate, a shaky economy, a fundraising crisis, and squandered and ineffective political ideas will make reelection difficult for even the safest elephants all across America. As for this race, it will be tough to a T. Prediction: Tossup.

CONCLUSION

After six months of going through 50 states, a third of the Senate, and non-voting delegates (one of which will be brand new going into the 111th Congress), all I can say is that it has been a pleasure to cover the arduous task of taking a look at every congressional seat in the United States. It was not an easy job taking a closer look at what will amount to be our most important election in a lifetime, and in fact, given the rigors of this series, the blog's priorities were heavily shifted from the local political scene in my home base (as well as other topics of my blog), which personally made my blog look somewhat out of place.

In the end, after tinkering and experimenting with various features, the final five states in this segment set the formula: each segment began with one or two opening paragraphs that focused largely on aspects of that state's economic base because the economy is the dominant and number one issue on the minds of American voters this year. Then it focused on one or two paragraphs relating to the political situation both traditionally and in the current year. Finally, the districts were reviewed, and in reviewing everything from fundraising totals to voter trends to the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates, I did the best I could to make my analysis as credible, informative, and unbiased as possible, even though there were times when I let out my inner partisan, which was the last thing I would have wanted in my analysis.

As the 2008 election season draws to a close, I clearly understand that competing with a flurry of more established (and in some cases, more biased, whether left or right) sources was not very easy, but as I look back at the last six months, all I can say is that I am very proud of the analysis I have done and regret nothing. This was the very first time I had ever embarked upon such an ambitious project, and while it was not perfect in the end, the one thing that does matter is that all I tried to be in my analysis was honest, because in a world where one slip of the tongue can deliver a crushing blow to one's credibility and self-esteem, honesty matters more than anything.

As for 2008, this year will be a historic election, and one that will set the stage for the direction of the next generation of Americans. I am looking forward to Election Day, and I am sure the same rings true for millions of Americans across the entire country who feel just as optimistic about the future of their country as I do.