The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXXI: Georgia

Last time, the Bullet Train to November crossed through the green and unusually independent landscape that is Vermont, a state with only one Congressman. Today, the train rolls down the Atlantic Seaboard (well, almost) to the Empire State of the South, a state older than the actual Empire State itself...

GEORGIA

The southernmost of the original Thirteen Colonies, Georgia was also the last to establish (1733). The area was initially explored by Spanish explorers for over a century before a dispute emerged in 1670 with the English founding of what eventually became South Carolina and the settling of Spanish missionaries on Georgia's Sea Islands. A proposed British colony, the Province of Georgia (named for King George II) was first brought up in 1724 as Spanish Florida and an associated runaway slave concern in South Carolina, combined with the establishment of a French fort near what is now Montgomery, Alabama threatened to harm British trade interests in the region. On February 12, 1733, 113 British colonists arrived at what eventually became Savannah. Georgia became the fourth state to ratify the United States Constitution on January 2, 1788, but broke from the Union to join the Confederate States of America in January 21, 1861 and was the last state to be readmitted, on July 15, 1870. Georgia has established ten state constitutions, the most recent coming in 1983. Only Louisiana (11) has had more state constitutions.

Today, Georgia is the ninth largest, and third fastest-growing state with 18 of America's 100 fastest-growing counties situated in the state, dominated by the rapidly growing suburbs of Atlanta, whose metropolitan area is home to over 5 million Georgians (over half of the state), a tenth of which reside in the actual capital city itself. The move of hundreds of thousands to the Peach State has been accelerated by the state's emerging economy, especially in and around Metro Atlanta, home to Coca-Cola, Home Depot, United Parcel Service, Chick-fil-A, Georgia Pacific and Delta Air Lines (among others). Atlanta is a popular sight in the cable television industry with media mogul Ted Turner's cable empire which includes CNN and TBS, and the headquarters of The Weather Channel in suburban Atlanta. Tourism, agriculture (including tobacco, poultry and peaches), textiles, food processing and electric equipment are among the key industries of Georgia's economy, and the world's busiest passenger airport, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, is located south of downtown Atlanta. One notable fact: the Girl Scouts were founded in Savannah in 1912 (and yes, when it comes to their cookies, I traditionally get the Thin Mints).

Among the more well-known Georgians: pianist/singer Ray Charles (whose rendition of Georgia On My Mind is the state song), libertarian commentator and radio talker Neal Boortz, Blue Collar comedian Jeff Foxworthy, civil rights leader and NAACP chairman Julian Bond, R&B singer James Brown (the Godfather of Soul), Baseball Hall of Famer Ty Cobb (The Georgia Peach), actress Julia Roberts, various rappers with ties to what is known as ATL such as Ludacris and Big Boi, American Idol host Ryan Seacrest, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, and civil rights leader Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

Historically, Georgia has been a stronghold for Democrats (who were more conservative than the national party) who dominated state government from 1872 after Reconstruction until 2003. Following the passage of civil rights legislation in the 1960s, the state emerged as a cornerstone of the "New South" with foresight towards a future of economic prosperity and tolerance, culminating in the 1976 election of one-time Governor Jimmy Carter to the White House. In 2003, the one-party dominance ended with the defeat of Governor Roy Barnes by Republican Sonny Perdue in an upset, which later resulted in the loss of the State Senate and State House, leading today to Georgia's current Republican leanings, and many conservative Democrats have crossed over to support Republicans such as one-time U.S. Senator and Governor Zell Miller. Republicans dominate in the suburbs of Metro Atlanta and in rural areas statewide, while Democrats perform best within Atlanta and other cities and regions (such as the Black Belt which encompasses central and southwest Georgia) that have significant African American populations.

But the Peach State will be more competitive in this year's presidential election: over 30 percent of Georgia is African American (fourth largest in the country) and Bob Barr, a former Congressman from the Atlanta suburbs, is running as the Libertarian Party's nominee. Both of these factors could help Barack Obama and produce a close race that could still favor John McCain, but not overwhelmingly so. Class 2 Senator Saxby Chambliss will be up for reelection this year and will be favored against former State Human Resources Commissioner Jim Martin, but unlike most states, Republicans have the upper hand in House pickup opportunities with two Democrats who faced defeat in 2006 repeating the same process this year, more so in one case.

NOTE: Due to a recent redistricting that took effect with this Congress and because the S-Factors reflect those of the old districts from the 109th Congress, there will be no S-Factors on this segment.

District 1: Jack Kingston represents a conservative district situated in southeast Georgia, including Brunswick, Valdosta, St. Simon's Island and parts of Savannah, and should be safe for another term (he has been reelected with no less than two-thirds of the vote each time) against retired Army officer and Iraq War vet Bill Gillespie. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2: Sanford Bishop is perhaps the most conservative African American Democrat in all of Congress, representing a relatively competitive district based in southwest Georgia including Columbus, Americus, Albany, Bainbridge and Thomasville. Republicans will try with disabled vet Lee Ferrell. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3: This is a heavily Republican district in western Georgia that cuts across the Columbus area and stretches northward to the southern edge of Metro Atlanta (Newnan, Peachtree City). Republican Lynn Westmoreland represents this district and is heavily favored for another term over attorney Stephen Camp. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4: This heavily African American suburban Atlanta seat, based largely in central and southern DeKalb County, is represented by Hank Johnson, one of the first two Buddhists to serve in Congress. Johnson won this seat in 2006 by defeating controversial incumbent Cynthia McKinney in the Democrat primary, aided by unease with McKinney's controversial mannerisms (most notably the assault of a Capitol Police officer). Johnson then won the general election easily in 2006 and will easily be re-elected this year with no Republican on the ballot. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5: This heavily Democratic district is situated in the heart of Atlanta. The Republicans are not fielding a candidate to challenge African American Democrat John Lewis, who once served as the chairman of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee during the Civil Rights Movement. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6: Most of Atlanta's affluent northern suburbs (including Sandy Springs, Alpharetta, Dunwoody, Canton and Roswell) are situated in this heavily Republican district that has quite a history to it: it was represented previously by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and current U.S. Senator Johnny Isakson. The current representative is Tom Price, who won the seat with no Democrat on the ballot in 2004 and easily won in 2006 over a Democrat opponent. The Democrat this year is businessman and Air Force vet Bill Jones. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7: John Linder represents a heavily conservative district situated in Atlanta's northeastern suburbs around Gwinnett County, including Duluth and Lawrenceville. Since his first election in 1992, Linder has become known nationally for his advocacy of the FairTax, which aims to replace the current tax code with a 23 percent national sales tax. Financial executive Doug Heckman, a veteran of the Iraq War, is the Democrat nominee. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 8: While most Democrats enjoyed relatively good results last year, Jim Marshall faced a tough race in 2006 against former Congressman Mac Collins, who nearly defeated Marshall in this Macon-centric district. Republicans have recruited Mercer University Vice President and Chief Technology Officer Rick Goddard, a retired Air Force officer, to challenge Marshall in what is being touted as one of the better pickup opportunities for the GOP. Goddard has raised more individual funds than Marshall, who leads in cash on hand. However, Marshall's background as a Vietnam Veteran and one-time stint as mayor of Macon could be beneficial. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 9: Republican Nathan Deal represents much of northern Georgia, including some northern exurbs of Atlanta and areas south of Chattanooga, Tennessee. He will be heavily favored over teacher Jeff Scott. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 10: Paul Broun Jr. came to Congress in 2007 from this heavily Republican district based in northeast Georgia and including Augusta, Toccoa and Athens, after Charlie Norwood died from cancer. Broun is now heavily favored to win the seat for a full term over Iraq War vet Bobby Saxon. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 11: Phil Gingrey is a safe bet for re-election over pilot and Air Force veteran Bud Gammon in this strongly conservative district based in Marietta, Rome and other areas to the west and northwest of Atlanta. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 12: John Barrow faced a very close race in 2006, fending off a challenge from former Congressman Max Burns, who won the seat over a scandal-plagued Democrat opponent in 2002 and whom Barrow knocked off in 2004. This year, radio announcer John Stone, a former congressional aide, is stepping up to the plate in this rather competitive Savannah-to-Augusta district that also includes Milledgeville, Vidalia and Statesboro. Barrow has the edge. Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 13: This has to be confusing...I don't get it. David Scott first won this seat that cuts across the southern edge of Atlanta as well as several western and southern suburbs such as Smyrna, Douglasville, Union City and Riverdale. Physician and clinic director Deborah Honeycutt has raised an enormous amount of individual donations, totaling $2.72 million ($290K cash on hand) compared to Scott's $119K ($139K cash on hand). However, this is not a competitive race as the district is very favorable if not safe for Democrats: the population is 44 percent African American and 10 percent Hispanic. Even more bizarre: an ethics watchdog group named Scott one of the most corrupt members of Congress in 2007. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Arizona.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXX: Vermont

Last time, it was a quick race and fast break through the state of Indiana, a traditional red state in a sea of blue. Now, the Bullet Train to November is taking another trip eastward, going to a small state that differs geographically (in a sense) from its regional brethren but has a very unusual political perspective...

VERMONT

Originally part of a French colony that became known as New France in 1609, Dutch and British settlers, along with more French settlers, began to arrive here. Eventually, New York, New Hampshire and (for a while) Massachusetts laid claim to the land leading up to the creation of the New Hampshire Grants which led to an independent Vermont on January 18, 1777. On March 4, 1791, Vermont became the 14th state (and the first outside of the original 13 colonies) admitted to the Union.

Today, while Vermont may not have a coastline unlike the rest of New England, it makes up for it with the geographical feature in its nickname, the Green Mountains, which are part of the Appalachian Mountains and are described as such due to their extensive forests which withstand even the harshest conditions in the winter such as snowfall. Another prominent geographical feature is Lake Champlain, which covers half of the state's western border with New York. The state also produces one-quarter of the nation's maple syrup (275,000 US gallons to be specific) and has a growing base of specialty foods and novelties exported nationally such as Ben & Jerry's ice cream products.

Vermont's political attitudes are unique. The state, one of four that previously was its own country, was a Republican stronghold (even consistently voting against Franklin D. Roosevelt in each of his elections) until the 1970s and is now a favorably (but not overwhelmingly) Democratic state. Voters here have many choices when it comes to their candidates, as there are no laws that restrict the participation of third parties in elections, the largest being the Liberty Union and Vermont Progressive parties. Interesting facts: Vermont is the only state that has not been visited by President George W. Bush, and the town of Brattleboro recently voted for a petition calling for the indictments of Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney for violations of the U.S. Constitution. With only one congressional seat, no Senate seat up for grabs this year, and a fairly notable gubernatorial race (incumbent Republican Jim Douglas is favored, but not guaranteed, to win re-election), not much is happening this year in Vermont.

At-Large (S-Factor 9.0 DEM): When self-described Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders jumped to the U.S. Senate to succeed Republican-turned-independent Jim Jeffords, this race became a relatively competitive one with Democrats offering up Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Welch and Republicans recruiting Martha Rainville, then the Adjutant General of the Vermont National Guard (yes, the Green Mountain Boys). Both candidates promised clean campaigns, with Welch prevailing 53%-45%. No Republican is on the ballot this year, but two third-party candidates are on the ballot, typical given the nature of Vermont's unpredictable politics: retired nurse and Socialist activist Jane Newton (Liberty Union) and Iraq War vet Thomas James Hermann (Progressive). Also running: independents Mike Bethel (a community activist), Cris Ericson (a pro-marijuana activist), and Jerry Trudell (a photographer). Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Georgia.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXIX: Indiana

Last time, we focused on California, the largest of the 50 states with 53 congressional districts but few races of interest. Now, the Bullet Train to November roars east to the Midwest -- to a traditional red state situated in a sea of blue and swing states...

INDIANA

Living up to its motto, The Crossroads of America, Indiana is filled with many villages and industrial towns intertwined within a vast landscape of urban landscapes and rural spaces, but not too vast -- the state is the smallest in the contiguous United States west of the Appalachian Mountains. Home to Native American tribes as far back as 8000 B.C., Indiana was claimed by French settlers in the 1670s and later by Great Britain a century later. The United States claimed the territory at the end of the American Revolution and in 1816, Indiana was annexed as the 19th state admitted to the Union.

Today, Indiana boasts a significant manufacturing base with the nation's largest steel producer situated in northwest Indiana, along with pharmaceuticals (Eli Lilly is based in Indianapolis), transportation, machinery and electrical equipment. Situated in the Corn Belt, Indiana is a major agricultural producer of corn (as well as ethanol and biodiesel), soybeans, dairy and specialties such as melons and mint. All of this is attributed to a low-tax, business-friendly economy. In sports, Indiana is known for a rich basketball heritage and is known as the birthplace of high school basketball, which was best exemplified in the 1954 state championship won by tiny Milan High School which beat the much larger Muncie Central High School and was the basis for the 1986 film Hoosiers. In auto racing, the world's largest one-day sporting event, the legendary Indianapolis 500, takes place at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, known popularly as The Brickyard. Some of the more well-known Hoosiers include 9/11 Commission vice chairman Lee Hamilton, Basketball Hall of Famers Larry Bird and John Wooden, musician John Mellencamp, political commentator Tavis Smiley, late night talk show host David Letterman, novelist Kurt Vonnegut, and musician and "King of Pop" Michael Jackson, as well as several astronauts, including seven-time spaceflight record holder Jerry Ross and Frank Borman, one of the first (out of 24) men to fly around the Moon.

Compared to other midwestern states, Indiana is a reliably Republican and conservative state; 1912, 1932, 1936 and 1964 have been the only times since 1900 where the Democrat nominee for President carried the Hoosier State. The GOP fares best in the suburbs of major cities such as Indianapolis as well as eastern Indiana and Fort Wayne while Democrats perform best in the city of Indianapolis and in northwestern and southern Indiana (the latter area of which tends to elect conservative Democrats). The state's congressional delegation is usually reflective of the national political mood, and is currently a 5-4 majority in the Democrats' favor. Democrat prospects are limited this year, as the Donkey Brigade has already picked up three seats in 2006, leaving only a lone dark horse opportunity in the House, a competitive gubernatorial race, and stronger-than-average polling numbers for Barack Obama as their only key bellwethers in 2008. For the GOP, at least one of the three seats it lost in the last cycle is in their crosshairs while at the same time defending Governor Mitch Daniels.

District 1 (S-Factor 8.0 DEM): This is one of the more liberal districts in an otherwise conservative-leaning state, taking in areas close to Chicago including the gritty industrial town of Gary and such surrounding cities as Hammond and Merrillville. Longtime incumbent Peter Visclosky is heavily favored for another term against carpenter Mark Leyva. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): Joe Donnelly was one of the first Democrats nationally, and second in Indiana, to pick up a Republican congressional seat in 2006, knocking off Chris Chocola in this South Bend-based district. Businessman Luke Puckett is the Republican nominee, but has not generated much enthusiasm. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 16.0 GOP): Democrats' three-seat pickup in the Hoosier State almost became a four-seat grab bag when Mark Souder faced a surprisingly close race against Fort Wayne City Councilman Tom Hayhurst last time, winning with only 54% of the vote in a district concentrated around Fort Wayne and northeast Indiana that gave 68% of the vote to President Bush. Hayhurst is not running this year, but 27-year old attorney Mike Montagano is and has raised respectable amounts as well, with $309K in individual donations to Souder's $287K. Montagano also has $352K cash on hand compared to Souder's $323K. But time will tell if Montagano can repeat the surprise of 2006. The D-Trip views this race as "emerging", but will it be enough to pull off a shocker? Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 17.0 GOP): House Veterans' Affairs Committee Ranking Member Steve Buyer represents a strongly Republican western Indiana seat based in Lafayette, Bedford and suburbs south and west of Indianapolis (but not Terre Haute), and should be a sure bet for re-election. Attorney Nels Ackerson has had decent fundraising numbers (Ackerson leads Buyer in individual donations $347K to $119K), but the D-Trip isn't even watching and Buyer's cash on hand totals of $629K far outpace Ackerson's $178K. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 19.0 GOP): This is one of the nation's most Republican districts, based in Indianapolis' heavily Republican and affluent northern and eastern suburbs (Carmel, Shelbyville) as well as areas southwest of Fort Wayne such as Huntington. But Dan Burton himself almost didn't make it past this year's GOP primary, winning by only seven points against former Marion County Coroner John McGoff, a margin that is not surprising given Burton's AWOL status on 11 percent of votes in 2006 and his casting the only nay vote on a rule banning members of Congress from accepting gifts from lobbyists. Still, Burton is definitely not in any trouble against businesswoman and former congressional aide Mary Etta Ruley, but his weak primary showing could suggest retirement in 2010. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 10.5 GOP): Mike Pence has emerged as one of the more well-known conservatives in all of Congress, having previously chaired the Republican Study Committee (now headed by Texas' Jeb Hensarling). His eastern Indiana district, based in the Richmond and Muncie areas, should deliver the former attorney and talk radio host another term over Methodist minister Barry Welsh. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 8.8 DEM): Following the death of Julia Carson last December, Indianapolis City-County Councillor André Carson stepped in to succeed his grandmother, and becoming only the second congressional Muslim in the process (as well as the youngest Democrat in Congress). He defeated his young Republican opponent, State Representative Jon Elrod, with 54 percent of the vote in this Indianapolis-centric district. However, Elrod ended his 2008 bid for the seat. While this is not a terribly safe district for Democrats, Carson can now be expected to win a full term against the new GOP opponent, social worker Gabrielle Campo. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): This was the first district to flip Democrat in 2006, with Brad Ellsworth pulling off a surprisingly large 61-39 victory over John Hostettler, who was known for his select base of campaign donors and consistent close races. The former Sheriff of Vanderburgh County (which includes Evansville), Ellsworth is now favored for another term against former congressional aide Greg Goode, but is not necessarily safe given the district's history of competitiveness. Remember, this is the "Bloody Eighth" which in addition to Evansville also includes Terre Haute and Vincennes and where close races and "throwing out the bums" is a common occurrence. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 6.8 GOP): This is the marquee congressional race in Indiana, and the fourth race pitting former State Representative Baron Hill against trucking executive Mike Sodrel in this southeastern Indiana seat stretching from the Indiana University campus in Bloomington to the Indiana suburbs of Louisville (New Albany, Jeffersonville), Kentucky. In 2002, Hill won it. In 2004, Sodrel did. In 2006, Hill took it back as one of the first 15 before Democrats were projected to take over the House. And now, despite Hill having the edge, Sodrel's electoral strength keeps the race interesting. And I am getting dizzy. Prediction: Leans DEM.

Next stop: Vermont.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXVIII: California

Sorry for the delay, but I am just now getting back to blogging after the onslaught of Hurricane Ike in my home base. Even though some back home are still in the dark (and I have personally decided to take an additional week of vacation from my usual spot), I am now ready to move on with the Nifty Fifty since time is of the essence. I still encourage you to help the victims of this storm and consider the hell they had to go through.

Last time, the Bullet Train to November roared through the state of Oregon, the most competitive of the three states in the lower 48 overlooking the Pacific Ocean. The train is now taking a short jog south to the largest state in the Union (in terms of population and electoral votes), one that lights up with the wonders of artificial intelligence in the north and the stars of American culture in the south...

CALIFORNIA

While California is not the largest state in the Union, it is home to more people than any other state, and has its share of geographical diversity. In particular, it boasts of expansive forestland that is only surpassed in size by Alaska, a powerful agricultural region that grows a third of America's food supply, vast deserts that produce some of the nation's hottest summertime temperatures, and a dramatic western boundary defined by the Pacific Ocean and coastal mountain ranges. Its roots can be traced to the colonization by the Spanish Empire of what was then known as Alta California (or Upper California) in the late 1700s. In 1821, an independent republic was formed including California as well as Mexico. A quarter-century later, in 1846, following the Bear Flag Revolt against Mexico, California was ceded to the United States following the Mexican-American War, and on September 9, 1850, California became the 31st state admitted to the Union. Shortly before its admittance, in 1848, the California Gold Rush kicked off an enormous influx of settlers and economic growth over several decades, culminating in California's position today amongst the world's ten largest economies.

Today, California is noted for its diversity: it boasts a significant Hispanic population, along with the largest Roman Catholic population of any state (10,079,310 as of 2000 to be exact), and large Jewish (including over half a million in Los Angeles), Muslim (including 100,000 in San Diego), Buddhist (as of 2000, 40% of American Buddhists could be found in Southern California) and Mormon (the largest outside of Utah) populations, as well as a growing Hindu population. Economically, the state is defined by technology in the Silicon Valley (San Jose), entertainment in Los Angeles (including Hollywood), aerospace and military operations in Southern California, and a strong agriculture economy aided by the Central Valley (including Fresno) and wine-growing regions situated in the Napa and Sonoma Valleys in the north and Paso Robles and Santa Barbara in the south. As of 2006, California's GDP is surpassed only by eight other countries, with computers as the state's top export.

While California is known for stars drawn to the bright lights of Hollywood and tech-savvy executives who hail from across the country to dawn upon the Silicon Valley, the Golden State has had its share of those who grew up here: actor/filmmaker Clint Eastwood, Apple co-founders Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak, actress Cameron Diaz, comedians Will Ferrell and Jack Black, High School Musical stars Zac Efron and Vanessa Hudgens, NASCAR driver Kevin Harvick, jazz musician Vince Guaraldi (who composed music for the Peanuts cartoon adaptations), film directors George Lucas and Robert Redford, late night talker Carson Daly, pro golfer Tiger Woods, brokerage executive Charles Schwab, sports radio talker Jim Rome, and former White House intern Monica Lewinsky, who became even more well-known for an infamous 1990s sex scandal involving President Bill Clinton that gained notoriety during his second term.

Politically, California has a diverse pedigree. It tends to lean towards Democrats in presidential elections; George H.W. Bush was the last Republican to win the Golden State in 1988. The state is governed in the form of a republic, with executive, legislative and judicial branches and direct participation by its electorate. While Democrats have had success at the ballot box recently, Republicans in recent years have had success at winning the Governor's Mansion, most recently with incumbent Arnold Schwarzenegger, a former bodybuilder and actor who is considered a moderate by national GOP standards. Democrats control both houses of the California State Assembly, which along with Arnold will have to grapple with a $16 billion budget deficit in the upcoming budget year. It was the first state to ban recognition of homosexual marriage (and the second to legalize it) and the second state to legalize abortion. Republicans are strongest in Orange County and in the San Joaquin Valley (Stockton, Modesto), while Democrats do best in Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay Area and in most coastal areas along the Pacific Ocean. The rest of state including the Inland Empire, the Central Valley (Fresno) and San Diego tends to be more competitive, and on Capitol Hill, Democrats have controlled both Senate seats with ease since 1992 while few if any congressional seats are considered at stake courtesy of an incumbent protection plan that was implemented following the 2000 Census. This year, the Elephant Stampede is attempting to take back one seat it lost in 2006, while the Donkey Brigade is focusing a flurry of mostly dark horse bids.

District 1 (S-Factor 10.3 DEM): Mike Thompson represents a liberal-leaning district situated along the northern coastline of California, and stretching all the way across the vineyards of the Napa Valley to suburbs west of Sacramento. The elephant-in-waiting for this race is businessman Zane Starkewolf, who is running as a "Green Republican", highlighting the strongly environmental nature of this district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 11.5 GOP): This strongly GOP seat stretches along Interstate 5 northward from suburbs and exurbs north of Sacramento to the Oregon state line, picking up the cities of Chico, Redding and Yuba City along the way. The district's longtime incumbent, Wally Herger, should be safe for a 12th term against Trinity County Supervisor Jeff Morris. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 6.3 GOP): The 9/11 attacks influenced the desire to return to Congress of former five-term Long Beach/Orange County congressman, two-term California Attorney General and 1998 GOP gubernatorial nominee Dan Lungren in 2004 after Doug Ose chose not to seek re-election. Lungren will once again be facing emergency room physician, Vietnam veteran and 2006 nominee Bill Durston in this district that cuts across suburbs of Sacramento (Folsom, Elk Grove), the northern and eastern edges of Solano County, and rural counties (Alpine, Amador, Calaveras) east of Sacramento. Durston has more individual donations than Lungren as of last June ($271K to $246K), but Lungren has even more cash-on-hand ($615K to $189K) than Durston. This race is confusing: it appears to be a competitive one, but Lungren has yet to experience tailspin. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 10.0 GOP): Longtime Republican John Doolittle, faced with controversies surrounding the Jack Abramoff bribery scandal, is calling it a career in his heavily Republican suburban Sacramento/Lake Tahoe district. The Republican nominee is State Senator Tom McClintock, a conservative star in California's GOP establishment who has run in a number of statewide races (most notably a third-place finish in the successful 2003 recall challenge to Gray Davis). The Democrats are once again fielding Charlie Brown, who held Doolittle to 49 percent in 2006. While Doolittle is no longer in the picture, the two are running competitive races (and a recent poll even shows Brown ahead), but the district's GOP nature will likely benefit McClintock. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 13.3 DEM): Sacramento dominates this largely Democratic district held by Doris Matsui, who inherited the seat from her deceased husband, Bob Matsui in 2005. Mortgage broker Paul Smith is the GOP nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 20.0 DEM): Normally, most suburban districts tend to be of a market-based orientation and hold a variety of social viewpoints (e.g. a district can be either pro-life and pro-gay or pro-choice and anti-gun control). On the latter, this one tends to be of a liberal bent, as it is a strongly Democratic one situated in Bay Area suburbs north of the Golden Gate Bridge in Marin and much of Sonoma counties. Incumbent Lynn Woolsey, the first member of Congress to call for the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, should have no trouble dispatching college professor Mike Halliwell. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 7 (S-Factor 19.0 DEM): It's practically impossible to imagine House Education and Labor Committee Chairman George Miller losing his strongly liberal Contra Costa/Solano-centric seat to human resources executive Roger Petersen. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 34.5 DEM): This is the home district of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and one of the most liberal ones as well as it is situated in much of San Francisco. The Republicans are fielding interior designer and party activist Dana Walsh who has raised respectable numbers ($361K in individual donations), but is still at a disadvantage given the enormous S-Factor for this district. Making this race even more interesting: anti-war activist Cindy Sheehan, whose loss of her son in the Iraq War triggered an insurgent anti-war protest, is running an independent candidacy here, but her fundraising numbers ($200K individual, $5K PAC) are paltry compared to Pelosi's relatively close position on the White House totem pole and ample funds ($1.16 million individual, $1.2 million PAC). Bottom line: Love her or hate her, don't expect Pelosi to receive her walking papers, but do expect a backlash of sorts from some voters -- left and right. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 35.8 DEM): While Nancy Pelosi's district is deep, deep blue, this district has a darker shade of it, as it is situated in heavily liberal Oakland and the liberal college town of Berkeley. Barbara Lee, the only member of Congress (House or Senate) to vote against authorizing military force in the wake of 9/11 and a strong supporter of a Department of Peace, will be heavily favored for another term against non-profit supervisor Charles Hargrave, the latest in a string of many elephants-in-waiting for this seat. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 10 (S-Factor 9.5 DEM): Ellen Tauscher was one of the first Democrats to knock off an incumbent Republican since the Republican Revolution in 1994, defeating Bill Baker in 1996 for one of the more conservative Bay Area seats (though it is still favorable to Democrats), situated largely in Contra Costa and Solano counties and jutting south to pick up Livermore in Alameda County. Businessman Nicholas Gerber is the GOP nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 11 (S-Factor 2.8 GOP): This is one of the seats the GOP hopes to pick up this year, as it is also one of a number of "scandal seats" that Democrats picked up largely because of the "culture of corruption" that Democrats used to bring down corruption-plagued Republican Richard Pombo, with wind energy executive Jerry McNerney picking up the seat. Republicans are now fighting back with Dean Andal, a former member of the State Board of Equalization (which is an elected commission dealing with tax policy). Andal maintains a significant amount of money on hand ($663K), but McNerney still has a significant cash advantage (with $1.38 million COH). The district covers such Bay Area and Silicon Valley suburbs as San Ramon, Pleasanton and Morgan Hill, as well as parts of the San Joaquin Valley around Stockton. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 12 (S-Factor 22.3 DEM): Following the tragic 1978 death of Leo Ryan in an ambush related to the Jonestown Massacre, committed at the hands of Jim Jones' infamous Peoples Temple in Guyana, Republican William Royer picked up this Bay Area seat for Ryan's term won in 1978, and later lost the seat in 1980 to Tom Lantos, the only Holocaust survivor ever to have served in Congress. The chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee early in this Congress, Lantos died on February 11, 2008 from complications due to esophageal cancer. The replacement turned out to be a survivor of the ambush that killed Leo Ryan: former Ryan staffer turned State Senator Jackie Speier, who is now heavily favored to hold this heavily Democratic seat, situated in west San Francisco and a significant chunk of San Mateo County (including Daly City and San Bruno), over former Public Utilities Commissioner Greg Conlon. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 13 (S-Factor 21.3 DEM): Pete Stark holds a unique position in Congress as the only openly atheist member of Congress; Unitarian Universalists, of which Stark is one of them, promote diverse views on the concept of deity. While this would stir controversy in a more conservative congressional district such as the one of yours truly, Stark is safe in this liberal East Bay district that includes such towns as San Leandro, Fremont and Hayward. Insurance agent Raymond Chui will try. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 14 (S-Factor 17.3 DEM): This Silicon Valley district was previously a bastion of moderate Republicanism, but the region's hostility to the Religious Right's 1992 rise in the GOP shifted this district, situated in such cities as Palo Alto (home of Stanford University) and Redwood City, toward the Democrats and in the process benefitted Anna Eshoo. This year, Eshoo will be heavily favored for another term over realtor Ronny Santana. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 15 (S-Factor 13.8 DEM): When libertarian Republican Tom Campbell decided to run for the U.S. Senate in 2000, Mike Honda stepped in to take this liberal-leaning district situated in areas of the Silicon Valley surrounding San Jose to its north and west, stretching southward from Milpitas to Campbell and Los Gatos, all the way to Gilroy. Businesswoman Joyce Stoer Cordi is the Republican nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 16 (S-Factor 15.8 DEM): Zoe Lofgren will be heavily favored for another term against businesswoman Charel Winston in this San Jose-centric district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 17 (S-Factor 16.5 DEM): The Monterey Bay region dominates this district, which Sam Farr has represented since taking over in 1994 when Leon Panetta resigned to become Chief of Staff to President Clinton. Farmer and real estate developer Jeff Taylor, who ran as a write-in candidate in 2006, is running again, this time with his name on the ballot. But it will not make any difference in this liberal-leaning district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 18 (S-Factor 3.5 DEM): This was Gary Condit's old seat, situated in the San Joaquin Valley around Stockton, Merced and Modesto. The scandalous 2001 disappearance of Washington intern Chandra Levy doomed Condit, who ended up losing his seat the following year to former Condit staffer Dennis Cardoza. Now in his third term, Cardoza will not have to worry about re-election. After all, he's running unopposed for his fourth. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 19 (S-Factor 9.0 GOP): Northern Fresno, along with various rural areas northward such as Turlock, Madera and Chowchilla, dominates the home base of unopposed incumbent George Radanovich. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 20 (S-Factor 5.0 DEM): Fresno and Bakersfield are the dominant focal points of this heavily Hispanic district, held by Jim Costa. Businessman Jim Lopez is running as the GOP nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 21 (S-Factor 11.8 GOP): Devin Nunes has served this district since its creation in 2002. Retired businessman Larry Johnson will try in this southern Central Valley (Visalia, Porterville) district, but will not get far. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 22 (S-Factor 15.3 GOP): Freshman Republican Kevin McCarthy has had a pretty good year in his first term: succeeding longtime Republican (and one-time boss) Bill Thomas, the then-chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, serving as co-chair of the committee that wrote this year's Republican platform, and now his Bakersfield-based district is safe for another term. No opponents have stepped forward. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 23 (S-Factor 9.5 DEM): Lois Capps inherited this moderate-to-liberal district from her deceased husband, former Congressman Walter Capps, in 1998. It is a coastal district, wrapping around the coastlines surrounding San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and Oxnard. The Republican nominee is financial planner Matt Kokkonen. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 24 (S-Factor 4.5 GOP): Elton Gallegly has served this district situated in much of Ventura County (Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley and the Ronald Reagan presidential library) and inland Santa Barbara County (including Lompoc) since 1987. In 2006, Gallegly stated he would retire, but due to California election laws, he remained on the ballot and therefore stated he would run for his final term. Now, Gallegly is running for another term. Despite all of this confusion, Gallegly is safe for another term against nurse Marta Jorgensen. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 25 (S-Factor 6.8 GOP): With Democrats now in power, and prospects of a GOP comeback appearing remote at best this year, former House Education Committee Chair (albeit for about a year) Buck McKeon could possibly retire in 2010. For now, McKeon is a safe bet against law office manager Jackie Conaway in this district that stretches from northern Los Angeles County out to inland areas situated along the Nevada border. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 26 (S-Factor 3.8 GOP): Since 1980, David Dreier has been the standard bearer for this district situated along the foothills of the San Gabriel Valley around such Southland suburbs as Rancho Cucamonga, Glendora and Arcadia. Dreier is facing a competitive challenge from magazine distributor Russ Warner who has raised a respectable amount of individual donations ($522K) but still comes up short of Dreier, who has $569K in individual donations. Aiding Dreier: a Dem internal from July showed Warner trailing by 12 percent. Aiding Warner: a fairly bad GOP climate and attention from the D-Trip as a "race to watch". Bottom line: Dreier should be favored to win another term, but don't count Warner out just yet. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 27 (S-Factor 12.3 DEM): Brad Sherman represents a San Fernando Valley-based district that includes the Northridge area and often favors the Democrats. Businessman Navraj Singh is the GOP nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 28 (S-Factor 24.0 DEM): Longtime Democrat Howard Berman, now chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee in the wake of the death of Tom Lantos, is running unopposed in this San Fernando/North Hollywood-based district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 29 (S-Factor 12.3 DEM): Adam Schiff has represented a relatively Democratic district based in areas north of Los Angeles (including Pasadena, Glendale and Burbank) since 2000 when he defeated Republican incumbent Jim Rogan. Rogan served as one of the House Managers in the impeachment of President Clinton, an issue that was not very popular in a district situated in the vicinity of Hollywood. This year, Schiff is heavily favored for another term against financial advisor Charles Hahn. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 30 (S-Factor 19.5 DEM): Henry Waxman holds a powerful position on Capitol Hill: he is the Chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Waxman is unopposed for reelection, not surprising as his district is a favorably liberal one situated in western areas of Los Angeles County including Beverly Hills, Malibu and Santa Monica. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 31 (S-Factor 29.0 DEM): Xavier Becerra is running unopposed in his Hollywood-based district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 32 (S-Factor 16.3 DEM): Hilda Solis is unopposed for reelection in this east Los Angeles County seat which includes such suburbs as El Monte, West Covina and Azusa and is largely Hispanic. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 33 (S-Factor 35.0 DEM): Diane Watson represents such western areas of Los Angeles as Culver City and Baldwin Hills, and should have no trouble defeating college student David Crowley. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 34 (S-Factor 22.3 DEM): Lucille Roybal-Allard, daughter of late former Congressman Ed Roybal, will be favored over economist Christopher Balding for another term in this district that stretches from Downtown L.A. to such suburbs as Huntington Park, Downey and Bellflower. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 35 (S-Factor 31.8 DEM): Maxine Waters is heavily favored for another term over non-profit executive Ted Hayes in a district stretching from south central Los Angeles to nearby cities Hawthorne, Inglewood and Gardena. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 36 (S-Factor 10.8 DEM): Jane Harman was first elected to this South Bay (Redondo Beach, Torrance, Venice) district in 1992 and left it in 1998 for an ill-fated gubernatorial bid. The seat went to Republican Steven Kuykendall, but Harman reclaimed it in 2000 and has held it ever since. In this relatively moderate district, she is heavily favored against retired aerospace physicist Brian Gibson. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 37 (S-Factor 26.5 DEM): Following the death of Juanita Millender-McDonald, then the Chairwoman of the House Administration Committee, Laura Richardson stepped in to claim this Long Beach-centric district. No Republican has filed to challenge Richardson, not surprising given that the district is strongly favorable to Democrats. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 38 (S-Factor 19.3 DEM): No Republican has filed to challenge Grace Napolitano in this largely Hispanic district based in the eastern portion of the county (including Montebello, Norwalk, Pomona and La Puente). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 39 (S-Factor 12.8 DEM): Whittier, Lynwood and Lakewood are among the eastern Los Angeles suburbs that comprise this district, which has been held by Linda Sanchez, sister of fellow California Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, since 2002. Businesswoman Diane Lenning is the Republican nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 40 (S-Factor 7.5 GOP): Ed Royce has represented this Orange County-based seat situated largely in Fullerton, Orange and areas surrounding Anaheim since 1992, and is favored to win another term over mental health consultant Christina Avalos. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 41 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): This is a safely GOP district based in eastern San Bernardino County including Hesperia and Redlands and stretching all the way to the Nevada and Arizona borders, but Jerry Lewis, the former House Appropriations Committee Chairman, has been attacked by a watchdog group over his ties to a lobbying firm run by former Congressman Bill Lowery. However, Lewis is expected to win another term (he won in 2006 with two-thirds of the vote) over Democrat and attorney Tim Prince. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 42 (S-Factor 9.8 GOP): Gary Miller is expected to win another term in this district which includes such Orange County suburbs as Yorba Linda, Mission Viejo and Brea as well as parts of extreme southeastern Los Angeles County such as Diamond Bar and Chino in San Bernardino County. Montebello School Board Member Ed Chau is the Democrat in waiting. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 43 (S-Factor 12.8 DEM): Many areas of southwestern San Bernardino, including San Bernardino, Ontario and Rialto, are situated in this district which has been held by Joe Baca since taking over for deceased 18-term Congressman George Brown, Jr. in 1999. Baca will be safe for another term against John Roberts, a city councilman and retired fire fighter from Fontana. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 44 (S-Factor 5.3 GOP): Ken Calvert has served in Congress since first being elected in 1992. The Democrats' nominee is Corona-Norco School Board President Bill Hedrick for this district that stretches from Riverside and Corona in Riverside County to San Clemente in the OC. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 45 (S-Factor 2.8 GOP): Mary Bono Mack assumed this seat in 1998 following the tragic death of entertainer-turned-Congressman Sonny Bono. While this Palm Springs-based district appears competitive on paper, former State Assemblywoman Julie Bornstein has only now gotten the notice of the D-Trip -- as a "race to watch", meaning that while Bono Mack is favored to win, Bornstein still has a shot at an upset. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 46 (S-Factor 5.3 GOP): Dana Rohrabacher, a former Reagan staffer whose early days were spent on such liberal causes as protesting against the Vietnam War, succeeded Dan Lungren (now representing a Sacramento-area district; he's on here) in 1989 and has had relatively no trouble holding this seat. Huntington Beach mayor Debbie Cook is a high-profile candidate, and fundraising numbers have been decent ($136K individual and $21K PAC compared to Rohrabacher's $271K individual and $47K PAC). However, Cook faces an uphill battle of sorts in this conservative-leaning district that stretches from Rancho Palos Verdes and Long Beach in L.A. County to Huntington Beach and Costa Mesa in the OC. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 47 (S-Factor 5.0 DEM): This is the bluest district in the OC, based in the cities of Anaheim, Santa Ana and Garden Grove. The incumbent, Loretta Sanchez, herself a former Republican, came to Congress by defeating colorful Congressman and one-time presidential candidate Bob Dornan in 1996, albeit by a very close margin of less than 1,000 votes. Sanchez is safe for another term against Santa Ana School Board Member Rosie Avila. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 48 (S-Factor 7.5 GOP): This was the home base of current Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Chris Cox, situated in such areas as Irvine, Laguna Beach, Tustin and Newport Beach. Now represented by John Campbell, it is still a Republican district and safe for Campbell against attorney Steve Young (NOT the former quarterback) who has been Campbell's general election rival both in the special to succeed Cox and the general in 2006. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 49 (S-Factor 9.8 GOP): Darrell Issa should be expected to win another term in this largely Republican district situated around the Camp Pendleton military installation, which straddles along the Los Angeles and San Diego television markets (including Temecula, Oceanside and Vista) and would make difficult advertising territory for non-incumbents such as retired businessman Robert Hamilton. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 50 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): Allegations of bribery in regards to the obtaining of defense contracts befell Duke Cunningham, a former Vietnam War ace who is now serving time in prison, and brought former Congressman Brian Bilbray back to Washington from this district based in areas north of San Diego including Escondido, Carlsbad and Solana Beach. Attorney Nick Leibham has raised a considerable amount of cash (though Bilbray still has more cash on hand with $528K to Leibham's $267K) and the D-Trip has given Leibham's campaign some attention. But will it be enough? Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 51 (S-Factor 7.8 DEM): Bob Filner should be safe for another term against businessman David Lee Joy in a district that straddles along the California-Mexico border and includes parts of southern San Diego and Chula Vista as well as El Centro, located in the eastern part of the district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 52 (S-Factor 8.8 GOP): Duncan Hunter made a second-tier run for president this year, ending his bid after the Nevada primary. The former House Armed Services Committee chairman is calling it a career after a remarkable 14-term run, having come to Congress along the coattails of fellow Californian Ronald Reagan in 1980. This has become a race pitting two Bush (41 and 43) Iraq wars against one another, with Hunter's son Duncan D. Hunter, an Iraq War vet and businessman, as the GOP nominee. The Democrats are putting up a dark horse bid with former naval officer and Gulf War vet Mike Lumpkin, but the Republican nature of this district which covers such San Diego suburbs as El Cajon, Poway and the Scripps Ranch area of San Diego will make it a difficult fight. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 53 (S-Factor 12.3 DEM): San Diego's downtown areas, along with some of its surrounding areas including Lemon Grove and Imperial Beach are situated in this fairly liberal district that has been represented by Susan Davis since she knocked off Brian Bilbray (see CA-50) in 2000. Teacher and USMC vet Michael Crimmins is the elephant-in-waiting. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Indiana.