The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXXI: Georgia

Last time, the Bullet Train to November crossed through the green and unusually independent landscape that is Vermont, a state with only one Congressman. Today, the train rolls down the Atlantic Seaboard (well, almost) to the Empire State of the South, a state older than the actual Empire State itself...

GEORGIA

The southernmost of the original Thirteen Colonies, Georgia was also the last to establish (1733). The area was initially explored by Spanish explorers for over a century before a dispute emerged in 1670 with the English founding of what eventually became South Carolina and the settling of Spanish missionaries on Georgia's Sea Islands. A proposed British colony, the Province of Georgia (named for King George II) was first brought up in 1724 as Spanish Florida and an associated runaway slave concern in South Carolina, combined with the establishment of a French fort near what is now Montgomery, Alabama threatened to harm British trade interests in the region. On February 12, 1733, 113 British colonists arrived at what eventually became Savannah. Georgia became the fourth state to ratify the United States Constitution on January 2, 1788, but broke from the Union to join the Confederate States of America in January 21, 1861 and was the last state to be readmitted, on July 15, 1870. Georgia has established ten state constitutions, the most recent coming in 1983. Only Louisiana (11) has had more state constitutions.

Today, Georgia is the ninth largest, and third fastest-growing state with 18 of America's 100 fastest-growing counties situated in the state, dominated by the rapidly growing suburbs of Atlanta, whose metropolitan area is home to over 5 million Georgians (over half of the state), a tenth of which reside in the actual capital city itself. The move of hundreds of thousands to the Peach State has been accelerated by the state's emerging economy, especially in and around Metro Atlanta, home to Coca-Cola, Home Depot, United Parcel Service, Chick-fil-A, Georgia Pacific and Delta Air Lines (among others). Atlanta is a popular sight in the cable television industry with media mogul Ted Turner's cable empire which includes CNN and TBS, and the headquarters of The Weather Channel in suburban Atlanta. Tourism, agriculture (including tobacco, poultry and peaches), textiles, food processing and electric equipment are among the key industries of Georgia's economy, and the world's busiest passenger airport, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, is located south of downtown Atlanta. One notable fact: the Girl Scouts were founded in Savannah in 1912 (and yes, when it comes to their cookies, I traditionally get the Thin Mints).

Among the more well-known Georgians: pianist/singer Ray Charles (whose rendition of Georgia On My Mind is the state song), libertarian commentator and radio talker Neal Boortz, Blue Collar comedian Jeff Foxworthy, civil rights leader and NAACP chairman Julian Bond, R&B singer James Brown (the Godfather of Soul), Baseball Hall of Famer Ty Cobb (The Georgia Peach), actress Julia Roberts, various rappers with ties to what is known as ATL such as Ludacris and Big Boi, American Idol host Ryan Seacrest, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, and civil rights leader Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

Historically, Georgia has been a stronghold for Democrats (who were more conservative than the national party) who dominated state government from 1872 after Reconstruction until 2003. Following the passage of civil rights legislation in the 1960s, the state emerged as a cornerstone of the "New South" with foresight towards a future of economic prosperity and tolerance, culminating in the 1976 election of one-time Governor Jimmy Carter to the White House. In 2003, the one-party dominance ended with the defeat of Governor Roy Barnes by Republican Sonny Perdue in an upset, which later resulted in the loss of the State Senate and State House, leading today to Georgia's current Republican leanings, and many conservative Democrats have crossed over to support Republicans such as one-time U.S. Senator and Governor Zell Miller. Republicans dominate in the suburbs of Metro Atlanta and in rural areas statewide, while Democrats perform best within Atlanta and other cities and regions (such as the Black Belt which encompasses central and southwest Georgia) that have significant African American populations.

But the Peach State will be more competitive in this year's presidential election: over 30 percent of Georgia is African American (fourth largest in the country) and Bob Barr, a former Congressman from the Atlanta suburbs, is running as the Libertarian Party's nominee. Both of these factors could help Barack Obama and produce a close race that could still favor John McCain, but not overwhelmingly so. Class 2 Senator Saxby Chambliss will be up for reelection this year and will be favored against former State Human Resources Commissioner Jim Martin, but unlike most states, Republicans have the upper hand in House pickup opportunities with two Democrats who faced defeat in 2006 repeating the same process this year, more so in one case.

NOTE: Due to a recent redistricting that took effect with this Congress and because the S-Factors reflect those of the old districts from the 109th Congress, there will be no S-Factors on this segment.

District 1: Jack Kingston represents a conservative district situated in southeast Georgia, including Brunswick, Valdosta, St. Simon's Island and parts of Savannah, and should be safe for another term (he has been reelected with no less than two-thirds of the vote each time) against retired Army officer and Iraq War vet Bill Gillespie. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2: Sanford Bishop is perhaps the most conservative African American Democrat in all of Congress, representing a relatively competitive district based in southwest Georgia including Columbus, Americus, Albany, Bainbridge and Thomasville. Republicans will try with disabled vet Lee Ferrell. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3: This is a heavily Republican district in western Georgia that cuts across the Columbus area and stretches northward to the southern edge of Metro Atlanta (Newnan, Peachtree City). Republican Lynn Westmoreland represents this district and is heavily favored for another term over attorney Stephen Camp. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4: This heavily African American suburban Atlanta seat, based largely in central and southern DeKalb County, is represented by Hank Johnson, one of the first two Buddhists to serve in Congress. Johnson won this seat in 2006 by defeating controversial incumbent Cynthia McKinney in the Democrat primary, aided by unease with McKinney's controversial mannerisms (most notably the assault of a Capitol Police officer). Johnson then won the general election easily in 2006 and will easily be re-elected this year with no Republican on the ballot. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5: This heavily Democratic district is situated in the heart of Atlanta. The Republicans are not fielding a candidate to challenge African American Democrat John Lewis, who once served as the chairman of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee during the Civil Rights Movement. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6: Most of Atlanta's affluent northern suburbs (including Sandy Springs, Alpharetta, Dunwoody, Canton and Roswell) are situated in this heavily Republican district that has quite a history to it: it was represented previously by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and current U.S. Senator Johnny Isakson. The current representative is Tom Price, who won the seat with no Democrat on the ballot in 2004 and easily won in 2006 over a Democrat opponent. The Democrat this year is businessman and Air Force vet Bill Jones. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7: John Linder represents a heavily conservative district situated in Atlanta's northeastern suburbs around Gwinnett County, including Duluth and Lawrenceville. Since his first election in 1992, Linder has become known nationally for his advocacy of the FairTax, which aims to replace the current tax code with a 23 percent national sales tax. Financial executive Doug Heckman, a veteran of the Iraq War, is the Democrat nominee. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 8: While most Democrats enjoyed relatively good results last year, Jim Marshall faced a tough race in 2006 against former Congressman Mac Collins, who nearly defeated Marshall in this Macon-centric district. Republicans have recruited Mercer University Vice President and Chief Technology Officer Rick Goddard, a retired Air Force officer, to challenge Marshall in what is being touted as one of the better pickup opportunities for the GOP. Goddard has raised more individual funds than Marshall, who leads in cash on hand. However, Marshall's background as a Vietnam Veteran and one-time stint as mayor of Macon could be beneficial. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 9: Republican Nathan Deal represents much of northern Georgia, including some northern exurbs of Atlanta and areas south of Chattanooga, Tennessee. He will be heavily favored over teacher Jeff Scott. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 10: Paul Broun Jr. came to Congress in 2007 from this heavily Republican district based in northeast Georgia and including Augusta, Toccoa and Athens, after Charlie Norwood died from cancer. Broun is now heavily favored to win the seat for a full term over Iraq War vet Bobby Saxon. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 11: Phil Gingrey is a safe bet for re-election over pilot and Air Force veteran Bud Gammon in this strongly conservative district based in Marietta, Rome and other areas to the west and northwest of Atlanta. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 12: John Barrow faced a very close race in 2006, fending off a challenge from former Congressman Max Burns, who won the seat over a scandal-plagued Democrat opponent in 2002 and whom Barrow knocked off in 2004. This year, radio announcer John Stone, a former congressional aide, is stepping up to the plate in this rather competitive Savannah-to-Augusta district that also includes Milledgeville, Vidalia and Statesboro. Barrow has the edge. Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 13: This has to be confusing...I don't get it. David Scott first won this seat that cuts across the southern edge of Atlanta as well as several western and southern suburbs such as Smyrna, Douglasville, Union City and Riverdale. Physician and clinic director Deborah Honeycutt has raised an enormous amount of individual donations, totaling $2.72 million ($290K cash on hand) compared to Scott's $119K ($139K cash on hand). However, this is not a competitive race as the district is very favorable if not safe for Democrats: the population is 44 percent African American and 10 percent Hispanic. Even more bizarre: an ethics watchdog group named Scott one of the most corrupt members of Congress in 2007. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Arizona.