The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XLIX: Illinois

After traversing through the beaches and citrus groves of Florida, the Bullet Train to November now heads to a very familiar state in the 2008 race for the White House, where this year the political message runs on a message of change...

ILLINOIS

The largest state in the Midwestern United States, Illinois is often seen as a microcosm of the entire country. One such example is the city of Peoria, where it was said within Vaudeville circles that a certain act's success in Peoria would guarantee it success anywhere. The question "Will it play in Peoria?" now applies to test marketing on various subjects from household products to policy polls, of which Peoria remains a frequent test market despite recent demographic changes in other parts of the country.

Illinois boasts the nation's fifth-largest economy worth $589 billion, with leading industries including chemicals, food processing, plastics, coal mining, and electronics, as well as a significant agriculture base that produces soybeans, corn, dairy and cattle among other crops. In fact, the state's corn crops produce 40 percent of the nation's ethanol and its soybean crops rank first among the 50 states in most years. The state is also fifth in electricity production (first in nuclear power capacity) and seventh in consumption, and serves as a major hub for transportation due to its centralized location. While a largely rural state, the state's population is dominated by Chicago, the nation's third-largest city where over one-fifth of the state's 12.8 million residents reside and which serves as a major center of financial services, tourism and publishing.

Illinois has historically been a swing state, but in recent years has become the Midwest's most Democratic state, largely due to the influence of heavily Democratic Chicago as well as recent inroads by Democrats in the traditionally Republican suburbs of Chicago. Outside of Chicagoland, the northern and central portions of the state tend to be more Republican while southern Illinois has traditionally voted Democratic. The state served as the political base of Presidents Abraham Lincoln and Ulysses S. Grant, and the birth state of another president, Ronald Reagan. This year, Barack Obama will attempt to become the third president from the Land of Lincoln and make history as the first African American elected to hold the White House. With that in mind, Illinois' other U.S. Senator, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin will be up for reelection and is heavily favored, and the state's congressional delegation, particularly on the Republican side, will aim to fight back against an expected Obama wave.

District 1 (S-Factor 34.5 DEM): Democrat Bobby Rush has been the standard-bearer for this staunchly Democratic district that covers much of Chicago's South Side as well as such south Cook County suburbs as Evergreen Park and Blue Island. He should have no trouble defeating Republican Cook County correctional officer Antoine Members this year. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 34.5 DEM): In this heavily liberal and Democratic district based in southern suburbs of Chicago including Calumet City, Harvey and Chicago Heights, Democrat Jesse Jackson Jr. (that's right, the son of Jesse Jackson) is heavily favored over Republican Anthony Williams. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 10.5 DEM): Dan Lipinski is a moderate by Chicago Democratic standards, and it subjected him to primary challenges from more liberal Democrats in this western Cook County district that includes parts of Chicago and suburbs such as Berwyn, Palos Hills and Oak Lawn. However, they have not been successful with Lipinski pulling off 53 percent of the vote against more liberal competition and the incumbent is now favored to defeat Republican realtor Michael Hawkins. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 30.3 DEM): This unusual district connects two heavily Hispanic portions of Chicago through a narrow strip along Interstate 294, with the northern portion containing a significant Puerto Rican population and the southern part including a large Mexican population. Incumbent Democrat Luis Gutiérrez, who is of Puerto Rican descent, will be heavily favored to win another term over Republican Daniel Cunningham. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 17.5 DEM): Four years after succeeding Governor Rod Blagojevich in this North Side Chicago district that includes the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, Democrat Rahm Emanuel was rewarded for his work as chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (the D-Trip) in the 2006 Dem takeover with the position of House Democratic Caucus Chairman. This year, Emanuel is favored to defeat Republican commercial real estate broker Tom Hanson. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 2.5 GOP): This historically Republican seat is situated in the bulk of the affluent DuPage County suburbs of Chicago, including such towns as Wheaton, Lombard and Carol Stream as well as parts of northwestern Cook County. After a 32-year reign by the late Henry Hyde, Republican Peter Roskam stepped in to succeed the former Chairman of the House Judiciary (1995-2001) and Foreign Affairs (2001-2007) Committees and notable pro-life advocate (known for the Hyde Amendment), but not without a fight: Roskam had to fend off decorated Iraq War vet and Democrat Tammy Duckworth in a race that some thought would swing in Duckworth's favor due to her enormous war chest ($4.52 million versus Roskam's $3.44 million). In the end, Roskam prevailed with 51 percent of the vote. This year, Roskam will face another Democratic Iraq War vet, former Illinois Homeland Security Advisor Jill Morgenthaler, who the D-Trip has hailed as an "emerging" candidate but lacks the warchest of Duckworth (only $740K in total receipts and $101K cash on hand compared to Roskam's warchest of $2.39 million and COH totals of $694K). Then again, imagine what the impact of an Obama campaign in the Senator's home state can do... Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 34.5 DEM): This district is situated in the downtown and west and south sides of Chicago and some western Cook County suburbs. Longtime Democrat Danny Davis will be heavily favored to knock off Republican businessman and Navy vet Steve Miller. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 4.5 GOP): Democrat Melissa Bean entered Congress in 2004 by upending longtime (think 35 years) Republican Phil Crane in a district that covers several northwestern suburbs of Chicago, including Schaumburg, Palatine and McHenry. Republicans have tried unsuccessfully to unseat Bean, who has crafted a more moderate image in comparison to most other Chicagoland Democrats. Wholesaler and former minor league hockey player Steve Greenberg is the GOP candidate in a district that is historically Republican, but compared to Bean's $3 million in receipts, and $349K cash on hand, Greenberg has raised $940K and has only $24K left in the bank. With Obama at the top of the ballot, it will not be easy to wrest this one out of the Donkey Brigade. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 19.8 DEM): This covers some of Chicago's North Shore suburbs, including Evanston, Skokie, Des Plaines and Niles, as well as part of Chicago's North Side. Generally liberal in orientation, it is heavily favorable territory for Democrat Jan Schakowsky over Republican businessman and Air Force vet Michael Younan. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 10 (S-Factor 3.8 DEM): Parts of Lake County (Waukegan, Highland Park) and some other affluent northern Chicago suburbs (Northbrook, Arlington Heights) fall into this historically Republican district situated along the North Shore that has been the domain of moderate Republican Mark Kirk since he succeeded John Edward Porter in 2000. In 2006, Kirk faced a strong challenge from marketing executive Dan Seals who held the incumbent to 53 percent in 2006. There will be a rematch this time, and with Obama at the top of the ticket, Kirk will need every bit of the $4.83 million he has raised to knock off Seals and his $3 million. Prediction: Tossup.

District 11 (S-Factor 0.8 GOP): With Jerry Weller getting roasted over land deals in Nicaragua among other issues, the incumbent Republican has decided to call it a career after seven terms in this district that largely sits in burgeoning Will County (Joliet) as well as some areas of north central Illinois including Bloomington. The Democrats have scored a major coup with State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson, while Republicans have had quite a scenario: losing its initial nominee, Chicago Ridge police chief and New Lenox mayor Tim Baldermann, when he pulled out of the race. Now they have another, much more well-heeled candidate in businessman Marty Ozinga, who runs a family-owned concrete business. Halvorson is aided by political experience and the ballot presence of Obama, while cash competitiveness (as well as the unpopularity of Governor Blagojevich) may help Ozinga. The polls tell a different story...Halvorson has consistently been in the lead. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 12 (S-Factor 5.0 DEM): Longtime Democrat Jerry Costello will be favored for another term in this southern Illinois district (East St. Louis, Belleville, Carbondale) over college student and Navy vet Tim Richardson. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 13 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): Moderate Republican Judy Biggert has generally won reelection without difficulty in this historically Republican seat based in Chicago's southwestern suburbs including Naperville, Downers Grove, Bolingbrook and Orland Park. Obama's presence at the top of the ticket along with the usual playbook of the Democrats (tie the incumbent to a president who isn't even on the ballot) could be beneficial to marketing executive Scott Harper, who the D-Trip is hailing as an "emerging" candidate. Money talks: Biggert has $1.25 million in receipts, $405K cash on hand, and experience. Harper has $873K raised, $253K available, and the prospect of Obamatails. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 14 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): When former House Speaker Dennis Hastert bid adieu to his historically Republican seat, it launched a free-for-all of sorts with a number of candidates from both parties apiece seeking this district situated largely in the growing Fox Valley exurbs of Chicago (Aurora, Elgin) and stretching out to towns such as DeKalb and Dixon. The Republicans nominated investment banker and dairy magnate Jim Oberweis, a former candidate for U.S. Senate in 2002 and 2004 and for Governor in 2006, to run in a district that also includes the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, or Fermilab. And out of the Fermilab came physicist and businessman Bill Foster, who snagged the nomination for the Democrats. In the end, Foster defeated Oberweis in a special election where he won 53 percent of the vote. Both men are running again, this time with Foster having the advantages of incumbency (and Obamatails present). Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 15 (S-Factor 5.8 GOP): Moderate Republican Tim Johnson will be favored for another term in this Central Illinois district that includes areas such as Champaign, Mattoon and Danville over Vietnam vet and retired State Department employee Steve Cox. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 16 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): Don Manzullo has represented this northern Illinois seat that stretches out from the Rockford area eastward to some suburbs of Chicago such as Crystal Lake since 1992. Barrington Hills Village President Bob Abboud is the Democrat-in-waiting. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 17 (S-Factor 4.8 DEM): Freshman Democrat Phil Hare has no opponents in this district that includes the Decatur, Quincy and Quad Cities (Moline, Rock Island) areas. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 18 (S-Factor 5.3 GOP): Ray LaHood is leaving behind this historically Republican seat based in Peoria and Springfield that landed in his hands in 1994 when he succeeded then-outgoing House Minority Leader Bob Michel in a year when Republicans took control of the House. A wunderkind is the GOP nominee this time around in 27-year old State Representative Aaron Schock, who started his career as a member of the Peoria School Board when he was a 19-year-old Bradley University student and later served as its President before entering his current position in 2004. The Democrats had a rockier situation with finding a nominee, first settling on former NBA coach and TV commentator Dick Versace until he bowed out of the race. Substituting Versace is former radio and television broadcaster Colleen Callahan, who will have an uphill battle of sorts going up against Schock. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 19 (S-Factor 7.5 GOP): John Shimkus represents the most conservative district in Illinois, situated in rural southern Illinois including Springfield, Centralia and Collinsville. The Democrat-in-waiting is Illinois Department of Public Health official Daniel Davis. Prediction: Solid GOP.

Next stop: The last state...

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XLVIII: Florida

With only six days left before America decides, the Bullet Train to November now heads southeast from the rugged terrain of Utah to a state marked by rapid growth, an economy of leisure, and a reputation for not being your normal swing state...

FLORIDA

Once home to Spanish, English and French settlements centuries ago, Florida became the 27th state admitted to the Union on March 3, 1845, and seceded just 16 years later to briefly join the Confederate States of America. Since returning to the Union following the end of the Civil War, Florida has emerged as one of the fastest-growing states in the country, having grown with each Census by over 20 percent over its history, and is now the fourth most populous state, on the verge of surpassing New York to become number three on the rankings of largest states within a few years.

The state's economy, the nation's fourth largest, is largely defined by a tourist economy of 60 million visitors annually; such attractions include amusement parks such as Walt Disney World, Busch Gardens, SeaWorld and Universal Orlando, Major League Baseball spring training particularly in the central portion of the state, cruise ship ports at the Port of Miami, auto racing events such as the Daytona 500, and hundreds of miles of beaches throughout the state. Other major industries include international banking in Miami, a large aerospace economy buoyed by the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, and agriculture including two-thirds of America's citrus production.

As opposed to its strongly Democratic past, present-day Florida is best defined as a swing state, having only voted for the Democrat in 1964, 1976 and 1996. South Florida, including the Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach areas which have a significant Jewish population, has traditionally voted more liberal and Democratic compared with the rest of the state, with a notable exception being its Cuban American population which has historically been more conservative and Republican in comparison. Meanwhile, northern areas of the state such as Pensacola and Jacksonville with significant military voting blocs as well as the Fort Myers area in southwest Florida tend to vote Republican. The swing area in Florida is along the burgeoning jurisdiction of Interstate 4, which connects the rather competitive Orlando and Tampa/St. Petersburg areas (though most of the suburbs in both metro areas tend to vote Republican whereas the larger cities are more Democratic). Senior citizens, who make up a quarter of the state's population, are also a key and growing voting bloc in Florida which makes issues such as retirement security highly important.

In the race for the White House, the 2000 election was especially controversial as recount proceedings dragged on into December of that year, with the final result being a 537-vote margin in favor of George W. Bush, who would also go on to win the 2004 election by a more comfortable five percent margin. This year, recent polls have been slightly favoring Barack Obama over John McCain for the state's 27 electoral votes, while several House seats across the state are facing some competition in one form or another.

District 1 (S-Factor 18.8 GOP): This is Joe Scarborough's old congressional district, based in Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach and Destin and largely influenced by military and veterans' issues. While Democrats have a plurality in this conservative district, it has proven to be favorable territory for Jeff Miller, who should have no troubling defeating Democratic businessman and Vietnam vet Jim Bryan. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 2.0 GOP): The capital city of Tallahassee and Panama City dominate this rather competitive district that has been held by Democrat Allen Boyd since 1996. Marketing executive Mark Mulligan is the GOP nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 16.5 DEM): This is the most unusual district outside of South Florida, taking in majority African-American segments of Jacksonville and Orlando, as well as parts of Gainesville. Corrine Brown, the only person ever to hold the seat since the creation of its current incarnation, is running unopposed. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 15.0 GOP): Ander Crenshaw will be favored for re-election in this conservative district based in Jacksonville and some of its surrounding areas including Atlantic Beach, Yulee, Lake City, and areas east of Tallahassee. Democrats will try with professional engineer and Navy vet Jay McGovern. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 4.5 GOP): Ginny Brown-Waite seized this district from Democrat Karen Thurman in 2002. It is based in the southern tail of the Nature Coast region that includes much of Tampa's northern suburban areas including Brooksville, Homosassa Springs and Zephyrhills. Her 2006 Democratic opponent, John Russell is running again. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): Cliff Stearns represents a district that includes Ocala and western areas of Jacksonville, as well as the portion of Gainesville that includes the University of Florida, Stearns is favored for re-election against Democratic entrepreneur and attorney Tim Cunha. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): Republican John Mica, chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, will be favored for re-election in this district, which stretches from St. Augustine southward to Palm Coast, Daytona Beach, and northern suburbs of Orlando including Deltona and Altamonte Springs, against Democrat Faye Armitage. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 8 (S-Factor 3.3 GOP): This competitive district, based in Orlando and some of its surrounding suburbs (Eustis, Conway, Ocoee), has been the domain of Republican Ric Keller since 2000. But Keller, who faced a close challenge from Democratic businessman Charlie Stuart in 2006, has alienated some voters in part due to his breaking of a pledge to serve no more than four terms, and faced another close call -- this time in the GOP primary -- against scandal-plagued radio talker Todd Long, winning with only 53 percent of the vote. As for the Democrats, Stuart lost this year's primary, but their nominee is of note: attorney and former telecom executive Alan Grayson is best known for his recent crusade against fraudulent contractors in Iraq. Grayson may also benefit from a growing Hispanic population (particularly Puerto Ricans). While Keller is not to be counted out, the prospects for reelection already are dimming, if they haven't already. Prediction: Tossup.

District 9 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): After succeeding his father Michael Bilirakis in 2006, incumbent Gus Bilirakis will be favored over attorney Bill Mitchell in this north suburban Tampa district. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 10 (S-Factor 1.3 DEM): Since 1970, Republican Bill Young has been the standard bearer in this swing district based in much of Pinellas County including St. Petersburg and some of its surrounding areas including Pinellas Park, Largo and Dunedin. Young will face Dunedin mayor Bob Hackworth. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 11 (S-Factor 11.8 DEM): Freshman Democrat Kathy Castor is safe in this district based in Tampa and St. Petersburg. She will easily defeat Republican architect Eddie Adams Jr., whom Castor defeated in 2006. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 12 (S-Factor 5.0 GOP): In this district centered in suburbs east of Tampa including Lakeland, Brandon and Winter Haven, Republican Adam Putnam, who first came to this district in 2001 as the youngest member of Congress and is now House Republican Conference Chairman, will be favored over Democratic Navy vet Doug Tudor. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 13 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): Something must be fishy about this Sarasota-centric district. In 2002, Katherine Harris, the Florida Secretary of State who became famous for her role in the 2000 election snafu, became the district's representative. Then, while Harris became the GOP U.S. Senate nominee -- and lost -- against incumbent Bill Nelson in 2006, Republican auto dealer Vern Buchanan barely held on to victory over Democratic banker Christine Jennings with a mere 369 votes. The recount, triggered by Jennings, dragged on into the new Congress. Jennings is running once again, but Buchanan will have the advantages of incumbency and favorable polling numbers aiding him in this fairly competitive district. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 14 (S-Factor 9.8 GOP): The name Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy, while it is a rather unusual name, has some meaning in the early-20th century sports world. The first Connie Mack was the longtime two score and a half manager of the Philadelphia Athletics long before they moved to California, and the second served as an executive for that team before going into real estate in Fort Myers. The third became a U.S. Senator from Florida, and the fourth came to Congress in 2004 to replace then-newly minted CIA Director Porter Goss in this strongly Republican Fort Myers-based district and is now heavily favored to defeat businessman Robert Neeld. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 15 (S-Factor 3.8 GOP): After 14 years in Congress, Republican Dave Weldon has decided to go back to his medical practice, putting his district situated in such cities as Vero Beach, Kissimmee and Melbourne in play. Republicans have recruited State Senator Bill Posey for this seat, while physician Steve Blythe has the Democrats' nomination. The D-Trip is not watching this race. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 16 (S-Factor 2.5 GOP): This historically Republican district that serves as a boundary of sorts between Central and South Florida, going from Port Charlotte to Punta Gorda and parts of the West Palm Beach area, became competitive in 2006 when then-incumbent Republican Mark Foley came under the microscope for sending explicit e-mails to former Congressional pages and turned what would have evolved as an "emerging race" by the D-Trip in 2006 into a full-fledged battle as Foley resigned. Democratic entrepreneur Tim Mahoney wound up benefitting, defeating Republican State Representative Joe Negron, whose name could not replace Foley on the ballot despite holding Mahoney to 49.5 percent and a margin of 1.8 percent. On the GOP side, Negron is not running again, but the Elephant Stampede is still targeting this seat with Army vet and attorney Tom Rooney, who beat two other well-funded challengers to win a very expensive primary. The nastiness enabled Mahoney to become a slight favorite until revelations that Mahoney himself had an affair with a mistress (and at least one other) began to emerge. Now Mahoney is damaged goods with only a few days remaining 'til the Sunshine State decides. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 17 (S-Factor 35.3 DEM): This is one of two majority African-American districts in South Florida, taking in northern areas of Miami and stretching northward to Hollywood and Pembroke Pines. Kendrick Meek is unopposed. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 18 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): Ileana Ros-Lehtinen made history in 1989 by becoming the first Cuban American woman ever to be elected to Congress. Her district covers much of Miami, Coral Gables and the Florida Keys. The D-Trip is targeting this race with Colombian American businesswoman Annette Taddeo, who has raised an impressive warchest of $966K and has the backing of the D-Trip. But Ros-Lehtinen's warchest is more significant ($1.64 million and $730K cash on hand versus Taddeo's COH of $5K) and polls have shown Ros-Lehtinen with a double-digit advantage. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 19 (S-Factor 20.8 DEM): Robert Wexler will be heavily favored for re-election in his strongly Democratic West Palm Beach-area district (which also includes Greenacres, Margate and Coral Springs) against building contractor Edward Lynch. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 20 (S-Factor 17.8 DEM): Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who first represented this Fort Lauderdale-area district (which also includes Aventura, Dania Beach, Weston and Wilton Manors) in 2004 to succeed unsuccessful U.S. Senate candidate Peter Deutsch, will be favored for re-election without a Republican opponent. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 21 (S-Factor 5.8 GOP): Democrats are targeting all three of South Florida's Cuban-American districts, and of the three, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, whose district is situated in areas west of Miami including Hialeah, Kendall and Olympia Heights, is the most vulnerable. Former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez is running a strong campaign against the eight-term incumbent in a race that pits two of the most prominent Cuban American leaders in all of South Florida. On the financial front, Diaz-Balart has amassed a warchest of $2.74 million and has $2.63 million cash on hand (the latter from previous races), while Martinez has been competitive with $1.77 million raised and $693K in the bank. For the most part, Diaz-Balart has been barely ahead of Martinez with polling margins generally in the single digits. But in a poor GOP climate, Martinez could pull off an upset. Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 22 (S-Factor 3.3 DEM): Being the former State Senate Minority Leader and the best-financed challenger in the nation in 2006, Ron Klein was the perfect candidate for Democrats in this district that stretches southward along the Atlantic Ocean from West Palm Beach to Boca Raton. Klein used his enormous warchest which eventually amounted to $4.19 million to take out longtime Republican Clay Shaw. This year, he will face Iraq War vet Allen West, a retired Army officer and African American Republican whose fundraising has struggled to keep pace with Klein (the incumbent has $3.79 million in receipts and $1.82 million cash on hand while West has only $476K in funds raised and $129K COH). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 23 (S-Factor 30.5 DEM): One bad apple spoiled the resume for Alcee Hastings, who was being sought for the chairmanship of the House Intelligence Committee, as revelations of his 1989 conviction for corruption and perjury that resulted in the loss of his federal judgeship came back to haunt him. But Hastings is a safe bet for reelection in this heavily Democratic, majority African American district situated in the Florida Everglades against med school professor and physician Marion Thorpe Jr. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 24 (S-Factor 3.0 GOP): This suburban Orlando/Space Coast district (Winter Park, Titusville, Port Orange) was drawn to elect then-Florida House Speaker Tom Feeney, who served in this position during the controversial 2000 Florida recount, in which Feeney was in charge of efforts to certify Florida's Republican electors to the Electoral College. Now Feeney is facing controversy over reports that, among other controversies, Feeney went to Scotland on a golfing trip paid for by disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. In fact, Feeney recently put out an ad apologizing for the trip. The D-Trip is targeting this seat with former State Representative Suzanne Kosmas whose warchest of $1.71 million in receipts has been competitive with Feeney's $1.99 million. However, with a Dem internal showing Kosmas with a double-digit lead (23 points to be specific) and the NRCC pulling the plug on Feeney, a pickup appears likely. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 25 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): This is the newest of the three Cuban-American seats in South Florida, situated in the southern end of the state between Fort Myers and Miami. Mario Diaz-Balart has represented this seat from the start (the district was created following the 2000 Census). The D-Trip is also targeting the seat, with the former chair of Miami-Dade's Democratic establishment, Joe Garcia, who also happens to be the former Executive Director of the Cuban American National Foundation. This profile has bolstered Garcia's campaign, which has amassed $1.48 million in total receipts. But the younger Diaz-Balart also has a strong warchest, boasting a total of $2.3 million raised and a huge cash on hand advantage: $1.62 million to Garcia's $235K. Like the race in the nearby 21st District, this race will also be close. Prediction: Leans GOP.

Next stop: 2 states left...and they are big ones!

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XLVII: Utah

With just under a week left before America goes to the polls, the Bullet Train to November crosses into a western state marked by diverse topography and a common leap of faith...

UTAH

The 45th state admitted to the Union (January 4, 1896), Utah is one of the fastest growing states in the country, having only grown by less than 10 percent once, in the 1940 Census when it grew by 8.4 percent from 1930. In fact, the state as of 2007 grew by 18.5 percent compared to its population in 2000. The state's beginnings are traced to Brigham Young, leader of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, who led Mormon pioneers to what eventually became Salt Lake City, now the capital of Utah. Today, the Mormon Church makes up around three-fifths of adult Utahns. The Beehive State contains a variety of geographical features, including the Wasatch and Uinta mountain ranges in the north, the Four Corners Monument at its southeast corner, the valleys and basins of the Wasatch Front (home to three-quarters of the state's population), five national parks (Arches, Bryce Canyon, Canyonlands, Capitol Reef, and Zion), and the Great Salt Lake, the largest salt lake in the western hemisphere. And in a state where the motto is Industry, the economy is powered by information technology, ranching, mining (including coal), petroleum refining, government services, and tourism, from the powdery snows of the Wasatch Range's ski resorts to the Sundance Film Festival. In 2002, Salt Lake City hosted the Winter Olympics.

Utah's large Mormon population and dynamic economy makes it a stronghold for the Republican Party. In fact, Democrats last carried Utah in the 1964 landslide by President Lyndon B. Johnson over Republican candidate Barry Goldwater, and in 2004 it was George W. Bush's best state, winning its five electoral votes with 71.5 percent of the vote. Given the conservative nature of the state's political lexicon, Democrats in the state tend to be more conservative than the national party. This year, Utah is expected to go to John McCain in the Electoral College, Jon Huntsman, Jr. is heavily favored to win another term as Governor, and the congressional delegation is predictable in partisan terms -- with a new name in one case.

District 1 (S-Factor 20.5 GOP): Rob Bishop should be heavily favored for re-election in this strongly conservative district that covers northwestern Utah, including the entire Great Salt Lake and its surrounding environs including Ogden, Layton, Logan and Tooele as well as northwest Salt Lake City. The Democrats are fielding Morgan Bowen, a former corporate executive who is now a teacher for a Mormon seminary. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 15.8 GOP): This is also a strongly conservative district, but not as much as the other two, containing the capital city of Salt Lake City as well as eastern and southern areas such as Murray, Sandy, Moab and St. George. Incumbent Democrat Jim Matheson will be favored for another term against homebuilder Bill Dew. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 25.0 GOP): Immigration turned out to be Chris Cannon's Achilles' heel in this cycle as the incumbent Republican went down in defeat against Jason Chaffetz, a former Chief of Staff to Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. and former BYU football player who has a rather colorful political past: he once served as a statewide co-chairman of the 1988 presidential bid of Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis, and later converted to the GOP after the campaign was over. Chaffetz, whose father was briefly married to Dukakis' wife, is now heavily favored to win this seat over Democratic professor and TV journalist Bennion Spencer in a district that stretches southward from outlying areas around Salt Lake City such as West Valley City and Provo to Richfield in west central Utah. Prediction: Solid GOP.

Next stop: Florida.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XLVI: North Carolina

In eight days, America will be deciding who will go to the White House, Congress and everywhere else in between. Today, the Bullet Train to November heads into the homestretch heading to a state that was once part of the Solid South and has now emerged as a prosperous, diverse state...

NORTH CAROLINA

Situated on the Atlantic Seaboard and stretching westward to the Appalachian Mountains, North Carolina has emerged into one of the largest states in the Union, having experienced double-digit population growth since Reconstruction, a fact reflected in the 2000 Census where the population of the Tar Heel State swelled by over 1.4 million, or 21 percent. Historically a rural state, North Carolina has emerged into a growing, diverse and affluent state with emerging numbers of Hispanic and Asian immigrants as well as transplants from across the country transforming the state as a whole. Charlotte and Raleigh have become major economic centers with jobs in a variety of service sectors such as banking in Charlotte and biotechnology in Raleigh. On the agricultural front, it is the nation's leading producer of tobacco, and also counts dairy products, nursery stock and sweet potatoes among its outputs. Not all economic news is positive; its textile and furniture sectors, two historically strong suits of North Carolina's economy, have experienced a downturn due to jobs moving overseas which have impacted many of the state's small towns.

Politically, North Carolina, the 12th state admitted to the Union on November 21, 1789, was once considered part of the Democrats' Solid South, but it is now a Republican-leaning state, having voted Republican since 1968 in all but one case: 1976, when it gave its electoral votes to Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia (the western edge of North Carolina makes up part of Georgia's northern border). At the state level, Democrats hold their own with the Governor's Mansion, a majority in the state legislature, and a 7-6 majority in the state's congressional delegation. This year, John McCain and Barack Obama will do battle for the state's 15 electoral votes, while the race for Governor pits Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory against one another, and Elizabeth Dole fights to defend her Senate seat against State Senator Kay Hagan. In the House, two races are being watched, one is a real race and the other is a dark horse.

District 1 (S-Factor 9.3 DEM): This district, based in such eastern North Carolina cities as Rocky Mount, Kinston, New Bern and Roanoke Rapids, is about equally split in demographics between Anglos and African Americans (with a five percent advantage for the latter group) and is favorable for Democrats. The incumbent, Democrat G.K. Butterfield, is heavily favored over Republican businessman Dean Stephens. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 2.5 GOP): Democrat Bob Etheridge should have no trouble dispatching Republican contractor Dan Mansell in this south Triangle area district that covers the southern and eastern areas outside Raleigh as well as a portion of the capital city itself. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 15.0 GOP): Walter Jones is a former Democrat who became a Republican after an unsuccessful 1992 congressional bid and won this seat in the 1994 GOP landslide. But some conservatives were turned off by the fact that Jones, who previously had supported the war in Iraq and even went as far as leading the effort to relabel french fries as "freedom fries" in response to opposition by France, now rallied against the war. That prompted a challenge from Onslow County (Jacksonville) Commissioner Joe McLaughlin, but Jones prevailed with 60 percent of the vote. Now Jones is heavily favored for re-election in his eastern North Carolina (Jacksonville, Greenville, Morehead City and the Pamlico Sound) district against USMC vet and meteorologist Craig Weber. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 5.5 DEM): This fairly Democratic district that connects the Triangle area cities of Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill is being sought after by businessman B.J. Lawson, a libertarian Republican who is running in a district that has traditionally voted Democrat. But Lawson, a businessman and physician by trade, will have a tough time trying to get past longtime incumbent David Price, who lost this seat once to a Republican in '94 -- and got it back in '96. The Ron Paul crowd will definitely be watching this race as a dark horse opportunity. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 15.8 GOP): Virginia Foxx came to Congress in 2004 when this northwestern district stretching from Boone and Mount Airy to the suburbs of Winston-Salem was vacated by eventual U.S. Senator Richard Burr. Teacher Roy Carter is the Democrat nominee. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 17.3 GOP): Longtime Republican Howard Coble will be favored for another term against med school professor Teresa Sue Bratton in this Piedmont Triad district wrapped around Greensboro that stretches southward to Pinehurst. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 2.3 GOP): While competitive on paper, this district based in Wilmington area should remain safely in the hands of Democrat Mike McIntyre. The Republican nominee is airline pilot Will Breazeale, a veteran of the Iraq War. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 2.5 GOP): Robin Hayes faced a nailbiter in this swing district that covers southern areas of North Carolina between the Charlotte and Fayetteville areas. Teacher and former textile worker Larry Kissell held the incumbent, hurt by his last-minute vote for CAFTA that he initially opposed until House leadership urged him to change his vote (which was the decider in a 217-215 decision), to 329 votes in 2006. This year, Kissell is running again and recent polling has been favorable towards the Democrat, while Hayes leads Kissell in funds, $3.15 million to $1.16 million. Which side has the mojo? Prediction: Tossup.

District 9 (S-Factor 12.5 GOP): Sue Myrick has had no trouble winning in this heavily Republican district based in Charlotte and some of its surrounding suburbs such as Gastonia, Mint Hill and Belmont. Businessman Harry Taylor is the Democrat-in-waiting. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 10 (S-Factor 14.8 GOP): Patrick McHenry represents this heavily Republican district based in west central parts of North Carolina including Hickory, Mooresville, Lenoir and Shelby. Democrat Dan Johnson, an attorney by trade and a former congressional aide, is running a dark horse campaign against the two-term incumbent and has more cash-on-hand than McHenry: $398K to $362K despite McHenry outraising Johnson, $1.42 million to $626K). However, the D-Trip is highlighting this race on its Red to Blue slate, even though polling has for the most part favored McHenry. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 11 (S-Factor 6.3 GOP): Democrat Heath Shuler was a star quarterback at the University of Tennessee before the arrival of Peyton Manning. But in the NFL as the quarterback of the Washington Redskins, Shuler stumbled and was even called out by ESPN as the all-time ninth biggest bust in the history of the NFL Draft. Shuler is now back in Washington, after knocking off Republican incumbent Charles Taylor in 2006. His western North Carolina district that is centered on Asheville is conservative by nature, but Shuler has managed to steer ahead of the course due to his somewhat conservative voting record, particularly in regards to social issues. Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower is the elephant-in-waiting. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 12 (S-Factor 13.3 DEM): This was the poster child for gerrymandering in the 1990s. Following the 1990 Census, the Justice Department ordered the creation of majority African-American districts (to comply with the Voting Rights Act) mostly in the South. One such district was this one which was drawn to take in majority black areas across the state in Charlotte, the Piedmont Triad (Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point) and the Triangle (Raleigh/Durham). That version, criticized as "political pornography" by the Wall Street Journal, unconstitutional in Shaw v. Reno (in 1993) and triggered another redraw in North Carolina and other states. From the beginning (1992), the district's representative has been Mel Watt, who is heavily favored for re-election against retired businessman Ty Cobb Jr. in this ethnically split (47 percent white, 45 percent black) district that now connects African-American population centers in Charlotte and Greensboro. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 13 (S-Factor 3.3 DEM): Meanwhile, parts of Raleigh and Greensboro are connected by this district that is fairly competitive, but has been represented by Brad Miller since it was created in 2002. Former State Senator Hugh Webster is the Republican-in-waiting. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Utah.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XLV: Arkansas

As the Bullet Train to November nears Election Day, the journey continues to a state that is home to strange regional political bedfellows, a well-recognizable mass merchant, and a town that is perhaps one of the best places to give birth if your baby wants to become President...

ARKANSAS

One of many states derived from the Louisiana Purchase, Arkansas was admitted as the 25th state to the Union on June 15, 1836. Today, Arkansas serves as part of the Bible Belt and is three-quarters Protestant, with 39 percent of Arkansans affiliated with the Baptists. Economically, the state is powered agriculturally by poultry, cattle, rice, eggs and soybeans among others, and also industrially by auto parts factories, food processing (Tyson Foods is based here), tourism, and of course, Wal-Mart. That's right, the world's largest retailer, founded at the hands of retail pioneer Sam Walton in 1962, is based in Bentonville.

There are some interesting facts about this state: some of Arkansas' counties have two county seats, the result of past travel difficulties from generations past, and there are few efforts to eliminate such an arrangement despite dramatic improvements in transportation over generations. Additionally, it is the only state with a law specifying its pronunciation, the result of Kansas residents who pronounced the state as ar-KANSAS instead of the official pronunciation, AR-kan-saw. And the small city of Hope (pop. 10,467) gave the world former Governor and 42nd President of the United States, Bill Clinton, as well as former Governor and 2008 Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, who ran a surprisingly strong campaign emphasizing on a socially conservative, economically populist message.

In the modern South, Republicans tend to dominate the political conversation. That is not the case in Arkansas, where Democrats run the show at the state level, with super-majorities in the Arkansas General Assembly, control of most local offices, the Governor's Mansion, both U.S. Senate seats (the only state among the former Confederate states with this distinction) and an overwhelming majority of registered voters. However, Democrats as a whole tend to be more conservative, as it is a social conservative stronghold with 74 percent voting for a gay marriage ban and has proposed legislation banning abortion if Roe v. Wade ever gets overturned. The Republicans perform strongest in the state's northwestern corner around the Fort Smith area and in the north central region around Mountain Home. While it was the only state in the country to give a majority (50 percent) of the presidential vote to one candidate in 1992 (Clinton), George W. Bush won the Natural State by a nine-point margin in 2004. This year, Arkansas' congressional delegation is especially predictable.

District 1 (S-Factor 0.8 DEM): Democrat Marion Berry is unopposed in this district based in the state's northeastern areas including Jonesboro and the Arkansas Delta region. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 0.5 DEM): While competitive on paper, this Little Rock-centric seat has been a generally easy call for Vic Snyder. Only a Green Party candidate (Deb McFarland) is challenging him. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 10.8 GOP): This heavily Republican seat, situated in northwest Arkansas including Fort Smith and Fayetteville, makes for a safe seat for incumbent John Boozman. There is only one candidate challenging Boozman: a Green Party candidate in Abel Tomlinson. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 1.0 DEM): Mike Ross is overwhelmingly favored to win another term in his somewhat split southern Arkansas (Pine Bluff, Texarkana, Hot Springs, El Dorado and of course Hope) district against...you guessed it, a Green Party candidate in Joshua Drake. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: North Carolina.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XLIV: Nebraska

After traversing across the oceanic landscape of New England via Massachusetts and Rhode Island, the Bullet Train to November is roaring west this time, heading to a state in the heartland with perhaps the most unusual state legislature of any in America...

NEBRASKA

The 37th State admitted to the Union on March 1, 1867, Nebraska marks the beginning of the Arbor Day holiday, and Nebraska City is home to the headquarters of the National Arbor Day Foundation. The state's economy revolves around an agricultural sector focused on beef, soybeans, corn and pork and also on such manufacturing and service industries as telecommunications, freight transport, and insurance. While Hastings marks the birthplace of Kool-Aid, and CliffsNotes originated out of Rising City, Omaha, the largest city in the state, is home to one of the world's wealthiest persons, Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett, whose holdings range from GEICO insurance and Dairy Queen restaurants to Benjamin Moore paints and one of the largest furniture chains in my home base, Star Furniture.

Since 1940, Democrats have only carried Nebraska in the electoral college once -- in 1964 during Lyndon B. Johnson's landslide. In 2004, George W. Bush won the Cornhusker State with 66 percent of the vote and this year is expected to be no different with John McCain favored to win comfortably here even as his campaign is running into obstacles of various sorts. Two things come to define Nebraska politics: it is the only state in the Union with a unicameral, or one house, legislature, and also the only nonpartisan state legislature as well. Additionally, it is one of two states that splits its electoral votes -- two to the statewide winner and the rest by congressional district. This situation has yet to occur. In 2008, one House seat is up for grabs courtesy of a repeat challenger.

District 1 (S-Factor 11.0 GOP): The state capital of Lincoln as well as the eastern Nebraska cities of Beatrice, South Sioux City, Fremont and Norfolk fall into this heavily Republican district. Jeff Fortenberry will be favored over Iraq War vet Max Yashirin. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 8.8 GOP): Omaha dominates this district which has been held by Republican Lee Terry since he first won it in 1998. In 2006, Terry was held to 55 percent against businessman Jim Esch, who is running as the Democrat nominee once again this year. A Dem internal suggests a competitive race with the Democrat trailing by only one point. Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 22.8 GOP): Adrian Smith did not win the former seat of former Nebraska Cornhuskers football coach Tom Osborne (who ran unsuccessfully for Governor) easily in 2006, as Smith faced an unexpectedly competitive race against Yale-educated ranch hand and professor Scott Kleeb, but came out a winner anyway with 55 percent. Kleeb is now running for Chuck Hagel's open U.S. Senate against former Governor and U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns, while Smith is now favored to defeat former Grand Island School Board Member Jay Stoddard. Prediction: Solid GOP.

Next stop: Arkansas.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XLIII: Rhode Island

After crossing through the state of Massachusetts, the Bullet Train to November now shifts southward -- without leaving the region -- to the smallest state in the Union, the first of the 13 original colonies to declare independence, and the last to ratify the Constitution...

RHODE ISLAND

The Ocean State is known for its independence streak, a fact marked by the roots of its forefathers. In 1524, an Italian navigator by the name of Giovanni de Verrazzano was in search of an all-water route to China and landed in present-day Block Island, and was guided with Native Americans to present-day Newport Harbor, where his crew surveyed the land. The same Block Island was later visited by Dutch explorer Adriaen Block in 1614. In 1636, a colonist banished from Massachusetts for his religious views by the name of Roger Williams settled here, along with various others over the years. In 1663, a Charter uniting Rhode Island and Providence Plantations (the state's mainland) was granted, and over a century later, on May 4, 1776, Rhode Island became the first of the 13 original colonies to declare its independence from Great Britain, and the last of the thirteen (to avoid having its exports taxed) to ratify the Constitution on May 29, 1790.

Rhode Island in the present day is shaped a diverse population, with the largest percentage of Portuguese Americans of any state, largely concentrated in Bristol County, in the eastern portion of the state. Large communities of Irish, Italian and French Canadian populations, along with Portuguese and Hispanic groups, have contributed to the state's Roman Catholic dominance, which amounts to nearly 64 percent of the state, the highest in the nation. However, none of the state's counties are among the ten most Catholic, as its parishioners are spread out across Rhode Island. Utah is the only other state with such a one-faith dominance. On the economy, health services, tourism and manufacturing (including fashion jewelry, electrical equipment and shipbuilding) are among the state's leading sectors, along with agricultural outputs in dairy (including eggs), vegetables and nursery stock.

Democrats have dominated the Ocean State since the Great Depression, largely centered in the state's urban areas. The party dominates the Rhode Island General Assembly, controls both U.S. Senate seats and holds both U.S. House seats. Republicans have won campaigns in the past with reform candidates critical of one-party rule and the state's tax rates, which are among the highest in the nation. Governor Donald Carcieri, who has called for tax reductions to improve the business climate here, is one such example. It is one of the Democrats' strongest suits in presidential elections, giving John Kerry 59 percent of the vote in 2004, one of his strongest performances. The state offers comprehensive health insurance to low-income children, abolished the death penalty in the 1840s, and is one of two states with legal indoor prostitution. This year, the political storm here is relatively quiet.

District 1 (S-Factor 16.0 DEM): The Kennedy empire is alive and well here in this district that covers northern and eastern portions of this state including Newport, Bristol, Woonsocket, Pawtucket and parts of Providence. Patrick Kennedy, son of Massachusetts U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy, will be heavily favored for another term against Republican Jon Scott. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 12.0 DEM): Jim Langevin is the only paraplegic member of Congress as the result of an accidental shooting in 1980 that left him paralyzed from the waist down. Langevin will be favored over Republican Mark Zaccaria in this district that covers Cranston, Westerly, Warwick, and parts of Providence. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Nebraska.