The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XL: Kansas

In Montana, Democrats have benefited in the traditionally Republican state from ticket-splitters. Now, the Bullet Train to November heads to this state where the Donkey Brigade prides its success on what I call a defacto three-party system, even though there are only really two parties...

KANSAS

Centered in the Heartland of America, Kansas contains the very center of the continental United States (48 states), located near the town of Lebanon in Smith County. The land was home to Native Americans before the area was explored in 1541 by Francisco Vásquez de Coronado. In 1803, the Louisiana Purchase was secured including most of what would become Kansas; a southwestern portion of the present-day state was a portion of the Republic of Texas until the Mexican-American War ended in 1848. In 1854, the Kansas Territory was formed, at the time stretching to the Continental Divide, and sparking a debate over whether to declare itself a free state or a slave state, as New England abolitionists collided with pro-slavery settlers from Arkansas and Missouri. This fight resulted in the territory earning the nickname of Bleeding Kansas. In the end, Kansas was admitted to Union on January 29, 1861 as the 34th state, a free state.

Present-day Kansas has a split profile when it comes to its population growth. It is one of the slowest growing states in the country, the result of rural flight, and over 6,000 ghost towns are believed to exist here. The Kansas economy is marked on the agricultural side by wheat and sunflower production in most years (as well as cattle, soybeans, corn and other crops), and on the industrial side by the aerospace, food processing, publishing and petroleum sectors, among others.

In Kansas, the Republican Party has long dominated the political situation, as evidenced by the fact that no Democrat has been elected to the Senate from the Sunflower State since 1932, the longest partisan shutout for any state from the Senate. In 2004, George W. Bush only lost Douglas (Lawrence, home of the University of Kansas) and Wyandotte (Kansas City) counties en route to winning 62 percent of the vote. In recent years, while the GOP continues to dominate politics here, Democrats have won in Kansas by winning over disillusioned moderate Republicans, who often squabble with more conservative Republicans over control of their party. For example, Governor Kathleen Sebelius' victories in 2002 and 2006 have been attributed largely to this split, which has created a defacto three-party system of sorts: Democrats, moderate Republicans and conservative Republicans. The split played a role in the election of two Democrats to the state's congressional delegation in 1998 and again in 2006, and those two seats are being challenged this year, especially in one case.

District 1 (S-Factor 19.8 GOP): Jerry Moran's district, known as the Big First, covers the rural bulk of Kansas, including Dodge City, Salina, Emporia, and Hutchinson. He will be heavily favored in this strongly Republican seat over attorney James Bordonaro. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 6.8 GOP): This was one of the big upsets of 2006, where conservative incumbent Jim Ryun lost to Democrat (and former Republican) Nancy Boyda, 51 to 47 percent. While Boyda is vulnerable, Kansas Republican primaries are known for their infamous battles between religious conservatives and more traditional Republicans, a divide that often has left the latter cluster of moderate Republicans no choice but to cast protest votes for Democrats, all because of the right wing of the Vocal Fringe having to have their cake and eat it, too. Ryun, a former distance runner who had set a number of world track and field records in the 1960s, ran in the primary in a bid to reclaim his old seat, but lost to the more moderate State Treasurer, Lynn Jenkins. This race is definitely competitive, with Boyda raking in $1.54 million and Jenkins posting $1.4 million as of last September and Boyda leading Jenkins in the cash on hand department, $622K to $553K. Whose side will prevail? Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): Even further evidence of the Kansas Elephant Divide: in 1998, former Johnson County District Attorney Dennis Moore became the first Democrat to represent this suburban Kansas City district (Kansas City, Overland Park, Olathe, Lawrence) since 1960 by defeating conservative Vince Snowbarger in a district that had long voted for moderate Republicans. Moore has held on to this seat in large part due to his relatively moderate voting record and the Republicans' continuous infighting. State Senator Nick Jordan is this year's Republican nominee and only faced nominal opposition in the primary. Already, Jordan has raised $1.02 million and has $430K cash on hand. Moore's warchest is comparable: $1.69 million in total receipts and $380K cash on hand. But in a toxic GOP climate, will the fifth takeback opportunity be the charm for the GOP? Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 11.5 GOP): Wichita and Sedgwick County dominate this district which Todd Tiahrt has held since knocking off longtime incumbent Democrat Dan Glickman in 1994. State Senator Donald Betts is the Democrats' nominee this year. Prediction: Solid GOP.

Next stop: Oklahoma.