The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XI: South Carolina

As ten states have now passed, we can now breathe some more. But there is no quitting the bullet train to November, and our next state takes us to one that defines Southern Hospitality...

SOUTH CAROLINA

The Palmetto State may have been the eighth state to join the Union, but it was the first to secede to the Confederacy (and the beginning of the Civil War courtesy of Fort Sumter). It was originally part of the colony known as The Carolinas until a 1712 split that created this state and North Carolina. The state is home to a significant African-American population and is largely Southern Baptist, and before 1830, South Carolina also had North America's largest Jewish population. For sports fans, there is much to offer, albeit outside of the professional realm. The Clemson Tigers and South Carolina Gamecocks draw very large number of spectators to their football games, and smaller schools (think The Citadel, Winthrop and the College of Charleston) have competitive programs as well. South Carolina is home to a multitude of golf courses, many for the leisure set, but PGA and LPGA events have been held here historically. Water activities, from surfing to shrimping, are also commonplace. The state gave us Smokin' Joe Frazier, Althea Gibson, Jesse Jackson, James Brown, and Stephen Colbert. Oddly enough, South Carolina elects its Adjutant general, tapes all its DUI videotapes, and operates its own school buses.

South Carolina, as goes with the rest of the South, was a pillar in the Democrats' Solid South until the 1960s following the passage of the Civil Rights Act. Jimmy Carter was the last president to win the state, in 1976. As the national Democrats became more liberal, the state began to slowly shift to the Republicans, yet it did not come overnight, as the state was filled with (and continues to be filled with) conservative Democrats in some areas. U.S. Senator and centenarian Strom Thurmond was one such example, switching from Democrat to Republican in 1964. Today, the Republicans dominate politics in the state, with a Republican Governor, two Republican Senators, a Republican majority in the House, and Republican control of the South Carolina General Assembly. However, the state's large African-American population could put the state, and a couple of congressional seats in play with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket.

District 1 (S-Factor 9.5 GOP): Four-term incumbent Henry Brown represents this coastal stretch of the state from Charleston up to Myrtle Beach. It has been in the GOP column since 1980, but wealthy philanthropist Linda Ketner is looking to change that. Already, Ketner has amassed individual donations on par with Brown and has a rather significant amount of cash on hand ($382K). Brown, though has even more cash stockpiled (nearly $1.3 million). A fifth of the district's population is African-American, but the significant Republican edge should help Brown. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 6.3 GOP): Joe Wilson has for the most part had no trouble winning his largely Republican district stretching from Columbia and its suburbs to Hilton Head Island. His Democrat opponent this time will be Iraq War Veteran Rob Miller, who has raised a respectable amount ($296K to Wilson's $408K) but still faces uphill odds. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 13.5 GOP): A largely rural and socially conservative district, the home district of Clemson University has been in Republican hands since the Republican Revolution of 1994 (when eventual U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham took the seat). Incumbent Gresham Barrett should be safe from Democrat challenger and USAF vet Jane Dyer. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 14.0 GOP): Bob Inglis represents the most Republican district in South Carolina, home to a growing base of business conservatives that comprises of research firms and automotive manufacturers and social conservatives from the ultra-conservative Bob Jones University. The five-term Republican from Travelers Rest (a rather ironic name for a congressman's place of residence), who served three terms from 1993 to 1999 and came back in 2005 when Jim DeMint left to run for the U.S. Senate, will be facing retired college administrator and Vietnam vet Paul Corden, who had to battle through a Democrat primary -- and runoff which he won last night -- to earn the nomination. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 5.3 GOP): Granted, this is a conservative rural district with suburbs on both ends (Charlotte, N.C. in the north, Columbia in the south) and a large black population (32 percent). It has never elected a Republican since Reconstruction, and House Budget Committee Chair John Spratt should be favored over college professor Albert Spencer in what is mostly a Republican-leaning district largely because of suburban Charlotte's York County. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 11.8 DEM): House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn represents the bluest district in the state, a majority-black one stretching from Columbia to North Charleston and Florence. Businesswoman Nancy Harrelson is the GOP nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Maine.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part X: Minnesota

Previously, I went through Colorado, a state that Democrats claim is their golden ticket come November given their recent successes in that state and their upcoming convention being held in that state's capital city of Denver. Now the focus shifts to the state where Republicans will be gathering this year to put a new spin on the Elephants Club...

MINNESOTA

Minnesota's three nicknames can be derived from three sports teams, one of which is now in Texas (North Star State = the NHL's Dallas Stars), another which is now down 2-3 in this year's NBA Finals (Land of 10,000 Lakes = the Los Angeles Lakers), and a third of which graces the state's BCS university (The Gopher State = the Golden Gophers of the University of Minnesota). While it is a very large state, three-fifths of it are situated in the Minneapolis-St. Paul region, known collectively as the "Twin Cities". Minnesota is one of the most educated states in America, which is not surprising given that a great amount of educational software provided to us in elementary school was by the Minnesota Educational Computing Corporation, or MECC (think The Oregon Trail), which eventually evolved into The Learning Company (who also provided us with a wealth of educational computer programs).

Minnesota is also a leader in alternative energy, with over 300 service stations offering E85 fuel, and a wind power presence in the state's southwestern portions. With much thanks to the Twin Cities, Minnesota also houses a vibrant arts scene, with strong attendance figures at performing arts venues throughout the region, and the state has even produced its own stars including Bob Dylan, Prince, Soul Asylum, comedian Craig Kilborn, the Coen Brothers, Judy Garland, and Snoopy (Peanuts creator Charles Schulz hails from Minnesota). The Minnesota State Fair is a major attraction that draws hundreds of thousands of guests every year, and winter sports from hockey to curling to ice fishing are common pastimes. Minnesota is home to 3M, retailers Target and Best Buy, and the world-renowned Mayo Clinic.

Politically, progressive policies, along with intensive community involvement, have been the hallmark of the state. Minnesotans are heavily involved in regular exercise, have low rates of everything bad (third lowest infant mortality rate for instance) and high rates of everything good (91% health insurance rate). Its political stylings are very quirky. The Democrats are not Democrats, but instead DFLers (short for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party). The Independence Party, a very strong third party here, is the state's version of Ross Perot's Reform Party, which helped elect professional wrestler Jesse Ventura Governor in 1998. The Republicans are led statewide by Governor Tim Pawlenty, and this year the GOP will be holding its national convention in St. Paul's Xcel Energy Center. However, Minnesota has not shaken off its progressive batter, and the DFL has fielded liberal humorist Al Franken to take on Republican U.S. Senator Norm Coleman, all making for a very interesting election cycle where the Donkey Brigade also aims to reduce the GOP's congressional delegation to a quarter.

NOTE: The primary is on September 9, 2008. Predictions could change based on various circumstances.

District 1 (S-Factor 0.5 GOP): When Gil Gutknecht ran in 1994, he promised voters in this southern Minnesota district (Rochester, Mankato, and the Mayo Clinic) he would serve no more than six terms. Gutknecht chose to run for a seventh, and his ploy backfired in his 2006 defeat to Tim Walz, a teacher, coach and retired member of the National Guard from Mankato. Since then, well over a million dollars been raised by Walz, the more moderate of the 2007 newcomers from Minnesota. Republicans (and the NRCC) have coalesced around Mayo Clinic physician Brian Davis, but State Senator Dick Day will march on to the primary. Wonder if this will make things a little dicey for the GOP, along with the fact that each of the two elephants-in-waiting have cash-on-hand figures under $100K. Prediction: Favor DFL.

District 2 (S-Factor 2.3 GOP): Of the three suburban Twin Cities districts, this covers the south (Apple Valley, Eagan, Burnsville, Lakeville and the counties of Carver, Dakota and Scott). John Kline first came into existence when he spooked redistricted DFLer Bill Luther in 2002. FBI whistleblower Coleen Rowley held Kline to 56% in 2006, but she will not be back this time. Instead, Kline will face former Watertown Mayor Steve Sarvi. Sarvi brags of an internal poll that shows this district as a pickup opportunity, but Kline's funding train is so far outpacing Sarvi for the moment. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 0.3 GOP): Moderate Republican Jim Ramstad represents the most affluent of the three suburban Twin Cities districts (Edina, Minnetonka, Bloomington, Eden Prairie, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth, Coon Rapids), centered in areas west of Minneapolis that are fiscally conservative, socially moderate. Usually, the Republicans dominate life in this district, but an upsurge of moderate DFLers courtesy of the 2006 legislative elections have given the DFL hope, especially now that Ramstad won't be seeking office after nine terms. But the GOP has someone for the seat: former House Republican Leader Erik Paulsen, to fall in the footsteps of Ramstad and Bill Frenzel, whom the incumbent succeeded. The DFL battle, however, was about as messy as the national presidential picture. It all came down to State Senator Terri Bonoff, who built her campaign around the suburban-oriented moderate tack taken by Hillary Clinton, and Iraq War Veteran Ashwin Madia, whose campaign was centered on the change path taken by Barack Obama. In the end, Madia, himself a former Republican (even supporting John McCain in 2000) upended the favored Bonoff. Paulsen has the inside track, but Madia could ride along Obama's coattails. The question is: who has the pull? Prediction: Tossup.

District 4 (S-Factor 12.8 DFL): St. Paul, where Norm Coleman was once mayor, is the dominant focus of this heavily Democratic district which is represented by Betty McCollum. Accountant Ed Matthews is running on the GOP side. Prediction: Solid DFL.

District 5 (S-Factor 20.8 DFL): This is the most liberal district in all of Minnesota, taking in Minneapolis and some surrounding areas, and Keith Ellison, the most liberal of Minnesota's three newcomers from 2006, made history by becoming the first African American member of Congress from Minnesota and Congress' first-ever Muslim. While his candidacy came with some doubts at first in 2006, he is now a legitimate bet for re-election in 2008 over minister Barb Davis White. Prediction: Solid DFL.

District 6 (S-Factor 5.0 GOP): The last of the suburban Twin Cities districts centers on its northern and eastern suburbs (Blaine, Ramsey, St. Cloud, Woodbury, Andover). Michele Bachmann is the most conservative of the three Minnesotans new to Congress this cycle. While she fought off child safety advocate Patty Wetterling by an eight-point margin, some initial gaffes have somewhat stalled her credibility. Elwyn Tinklenberg, a moderate DFLer, is hoping to help shut the GOP out of the state's congressional delegation, but the money edge points to Bachmann. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 5.0 GOP): The northwestern and western shavings of Minnesota, from Bemidji to Moorhead and Fergus Falls on down to Willmar, comprise this heavily rural district. House Ag Committee Chair Collin Peterson has often won re-election to this relatively conservative district, and his GOP challenger, Glen Menze, has yet to impress (and it is most likely going to be a struggle). Prediction: Solid DFL.

District 8 (S-Factor 4.5 DFL): This is my grandfather's native district, centered in his birthplace of Duluth and all of northeastern Minnesota, including Brainerd and International Falls. The district's congressman, House Transportation and Infrastructure Chair Jim Oberstar, has served in the House for 17 terms, even knocking off former U.S. Senator Rod Grams in 2006 with nearly 64%. So far, the GOP has yet to field a challenger. Prediction: Solid DFL.

Next stop: South Carolina.

Nifty Fifty UPDATE: Virginia

Last night, congressional primaries were held in Maine, North Dakota, South Carolina and Virginia. The latter of the four was already covered, so here's what happened in Virginia last night...

In the 8th District (Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church and Reston), Mark Ellmore defeated Amit Singh for the Republican nomination in a heavily Democrat district currently held by the flamboyant Jim Moran. This is a disappointment for the Ron Paul crowd as Singh was of that variety. No changes here, still Solid DEM.

District 10 (Manassas, Herndon, McLean, Winchester, Loudoun County) will see a rematch between veteran incumbent Frank Wolf and 2006 Democrat dark horse Judy Feder, whose campaign gave Wolf a relatively closer-than-expected victory margin. Wolf easily dispatched challenger Vern McKinley while Feder defeated retired Air Force Colonel Mike Turner. Wolf should still be favored.

The four-way Democratic battle in District 11 (Annandale, Woodbridge, Burke, Fairfax, Vienna) concluded with Fairfax County Board Chair Gerry Connolly finishing on top over three other candidates including former Congresswoman Leslie Byrne. The race was a toss-up due to Republican businessman Keith Fimian's robust early numbers (which include some of his own cash), though Connolly's individual money totals are not much different from Fimian, whose self-investment of $325K artificially still puts Fimian well ahead in fundraising. Based on these numbers, along with the Democrat trend that has been ongoing in Northern Virginia, and former Governor Mark Warner (2002-2006) the early favorite against former Governor Jim Gilmore (1998-2002) for retiring Senator John Warner's open seat, this race could shift toward Leans DEM, but for now it is still a Tossup.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part IX: Kentucky

Six days have passed...and this blog seems to be getting rather lonely. But now with eight states down, we now go to a state that is part Southern, part Midwestern...

KENTUCKY

The landscape of this state can be summed up in one word...Bluegrass. Many parcels of land across the state have this type of lawn which is also immortalized in its nickname, "The Bluegrass State". But bluegrass is far from the only natural sight in this state, with an extensive cave system (the longest in the world), and the most productive coalfield in America also present here. Kentucky's economy is diverse, playing host to agricultural staples such as horses and tobacco as well as industrial outputs including transportation, chemical products and machinery. Many automobiles are manufactured here from the Chevrolet Corvette to the Ford F-150. Two sporting events, thoroughbred racing (including the Kentucky Derby) and college basketball, dominate the state's sport culture.

Historically, the Democratic Party has dominated politics here, and a majority of registered voters here are Democrats, with a 20% advantage over Republicans. George W. Bush won this state both times, as did Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. With the exception of John F. Kennedy, since the Civil War, Kentucky has always been a deciding factor as to whether or not the next President of the United States is a Democrat as it is a traditional must-win state for Democratic candidates.

Not much competition can be expected in this state, where four out of its six congressional districts field Republicans. In 2007, Governor Ernie Fletcher was defeated for re-election by Democrat Steve Beshear, and the year before Anne Northup was one of many Republicans who lost to Democrats (John Yarmuth) in the congressional bloodbath of 2006. But with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell facing the previous unexpected possibility of defeat in a toxic GOP year, everything old appears to be new again.

District 1 (S-Factor 9.8 GOP): Western Kentucky (Paducah, Henderson, Hokpinsville) dominates this district, and before Ed Whitfield came ashore in the Republican Revolution of 1994, conservative Democrats dominated at the local, state and federal levels. Democrats continue to dominate at the local levels, but the socially conservative Whitfield should have no trouble getting past former non-profit executive Heather Ryan. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 12.3 GOP): Ron Lewis is not seeking re-election, two years after facing a spirited challenge from retired Army officer and former State Representative Mike Weaver who held Lewis to 55 percent of the vote in 2006. State Senators David Boswell and Brett Guthrie will pit each other against themselves in the general election, but Guthrie is the favored candidate to represent many of the most distant portions of Louisville Metro, parts of the "Bourbon Trail", and cities such as Bowling Green and Owensboro (not to mention the birthplace of one of my party's icons, Abraham Lincoln). Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 2.5 DEM): The most Democratic district in all of Kentucky lies here in the bulk of Louisville Metro, a swing district where John Yarmuth defeated then-incumbent Anne Northup in 2006. The Republican nomination was supposed to go to attorney and military reservist Erwin Roberts, but Northup re-entered the race after Roberts pulled out of the race due to a military mandate. Now, it is a far different story as Yarmuth is the incumbent while Northup, fresh off a 2007 loss in the gubernatorial primary to the now defeated Ernie Fletcher, may have to deal with the notion of the Yarmuth camp that she is a perennial dunce. Furthermore, Yarmuth has the early cash advantage. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 11.3 GOP): Geoff Davis narrowly survived a challenge from former Congressman Ken Lucas in 2006 in this conservative district that strectches from the northeast suburbs of Louisville all the way to Ashland, encompassing the suburbs of Cincinnati along the way. The Democrat nominee, physician Michael Kelley, has generated very little enthusiasm. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 7.8 GOP): In spite of all the controversy surrounding his constituents' pork (including a family entertainment center in his name and steering national security money towards his considerably safe district), no Democrat has filed to take on veteran 14-term Republican Hal Rogers, whose jurisdiction (the second-poorest district in America) spans the southeastern portion of the state, including Somerset, Morehead and Pikeville (Independent and Army Veteran Jim Holbert is the only challenger thus far). Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 6.3 GOP): Lexington and the capital city of Frankfort dominate this district, which is held by Democrat Ben Chandler, the grandson of former Baseball Commissioner, U.S. Senator and Governor Happy Chandler. The Republican nominee is attorney and Army veteran Jon Larson, but it should have little effect on Chandler, a Blue Dog. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Minnesota.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part VIII: Colorado

Last night, in the Twin Cities region of Minnesota, Barack Obama triumphed over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential sweepstakes. With Obama having secured the needed delegate votes to become the standard bearer of the Democrats for the 2008 election cycle, he decided to kickoff his general election campaign against John McCain in, of all places, the Xcel Energy Center in Minnesota's capital city of St. Paul, home of this year's Republican National Convention, where the GOP will set its own platform (and trust me, it will not be as southern fried as in the past) for this cycle. As for the Democrats, their convention is set to take place in a state that has been anointed as their key to victory in the West…

COLORADO

Known as the Centennial State (for it was admitted to the Union in 1876), with hundreds of mountain peaks in the five-figure range (courtesy of the Rocky Mountains) and its location at the northeast quadrant of Four Corners, Colorado is a spectacular sight all to its own. But landscaping is far from the only feature of this state. Colorado is also one of the richest states in the nation, with a diverse economy dominated by beer production, mining, agriculture, finance, the Denver Mint, technology, and government services ranging from the NOAA to a Supermax prison. Owing to Colorado's strong economic growth, the state is dominated by transplants who came to Colorado in search of a new frontier in their lives.

Colorado's political scene is diverse. The heart of the state's Republican establishment lies in Colorado Springs, home to the Air Force Academy and Focus on the Family, while Democrats perform strongest in Denver and also in the college towns of Boulder and Fort Collins. The rest of the state, from the Denver suburbs to the Western Slope and a number of its ski resorts, can get swingy depending on who the candidates are, or how the parties are viewed in particular. In short, Colorado tends to take a libertarian approach to its politics, a common trait among western states.

Right now, the trend favors the Democrats, who in 2006 gained the Governor's Mansion, a congressional seat, and several state legislative seats. That, along with the 2008 Democratic National Convention being held in Denver and a competitive battle for the now-open U.S. Senate seat of Wayne Allard, makes for a difficult situation for the Republicans. The question is, will it show in the House?

NOTE: The primary is on August 12, 2008. Predictions could change based on various circumstances.

District 1 (S-Factor 18.3 DEM): This is the most heavily Democratic district in the state, encompassing the capital city of Denver and a few surrounding areas (i.e. Englewood, Glendale). Diana DeGette has been the district's standard-bearer since her first victory in 1996 when she succeeded 12-term incumbent and one-time presidential candidate Pat Schroeder. The Republican candidate is George Lilly, a salesman and Army Veteran who is among many Ron Paul Republicans running this year including many in urban areas such as this one. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 8.3 DEM): Mark Udall is leaving the House to run as his party's U.S. Senate nominee in the wake of Wayne Allard's retirement (In fact, Udall had been planning it well before Allard called it a career). This district is expected to remain Democratic due to its liberal base in Boulder, home of the University of Colorado, though it also takes in many of Colorado's natural features from ski slopes to national forests to wilderness preserves, all in the north central part of the state which can get red at times, as well as some suburbs of Denver including Westminster and Thornton. The Democrats have turned this contest into a multi-million dollar blockbuster primary with former State Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, Former State Board of Education Chair Jared Polis, and State Conservation Trust Director Will Shafroth staged in a heated battle for their party's nomination. Attorney and teacher Larry Johnson is also running on the Dem ticket. Electronical engineer Scott Starin is the lone Republican candidate thus far. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 5.3 GOP): John Salazar represents a heavily rural district on the western and southern edges of the state, including Grand Junction and Pueblo. While it leans Republican, Salazar is not expected to face an especially strong challenge. The Republican candidate is Delta County Commissioner Wayne Wolf, who has yet to soar. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): Marilyn Musgrave has never had an especially easy victory in this Fort Collins-based district, and it goes well beyond the rather Democratic-leaning nature of the home of Colorado State University (in what is otherwise a strongly GOP district). Early in her congressional career, for instance, she referred to same-sex marriage as the nation's most pressing issue. After close battles with former State Senate President Stan Matsunaka in 2002 (when the seat was open) and 2004 (when it was not) and a close call against then-State Representative Angie Paccione in 2006, Musgrave has had to focus on more important issues such as agriculture. Still, the Democrats are fielding a candidate once again, and Betsy Markey, a former aide to Senator Ken Salazar, hopes to make the fourth time a charm for the Donkey Brigade. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 15.3 GOP): This is the most Republican district in all of Colorado, home to Colorado Springs and its notable military and evangelical bases, but Doug Lamborn is not necessarily a safe bet. In the 2006 primary to succeed the now retired Joel Hefley, Lamborn came under fire for a campaign with such detriment that the ethically-minded Hefley did not endorse Lamborn. The candidate Hefley did endorse, former Chamber of Commerce official Jeff Crank, is running once again along with retired Air Force Major General Bentley Rayburn. Hal Bidlack, a retired USAF officer, is the Democrat-in-waiting. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 9.8 GOP): This white-collar suburban Denver district is one of the nation's wealthiest, and immigration hawk Tom Tancredo has had the privilege of representing this district since 1998 (even surviving the aftermath of the Columbine High School massacre that gripped this district in 1999). After a stint as a second-tier presidential candidate, Tancredo will be stepping aside. Four Republicans have lined up, mortgage banker Wil Armstrong (whose father is former U.S. Senator Bill Armstrong), Secretary of State Mike Coffman, and State Senators Ted Harvey and Steve Ward. Coffman is highest on the totem pole. The winner of the Republican slugfest will face Democrat aviation consultant Hank Eng, who once served as a city councilman in Wisconsin. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 2.3 DEM): This is the most competitive district in all of Colorado: one-third Republicans, one-third Democrats and one-third independents. The seat, based in suburbs of Denver to its west (Lakewood, Wheat Ridge), north (Arvada, Commerce City, Golden) and east (Aurora), became open in 2006 when Bob Beauprez made an ill-fated bid for governor. Despite the competitive nature of this district, freshman Democrat Ed Perlmutter will not face a very strong challenge this year, and should be expected to do fine against financial planner John Lerew. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Kentucky.