Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Nifty Fifty UPDATE: Virginia

Last night, congressional primaries were held in Maine, North Dakota, South Carolina and Virginia. The latter of the four was already covered, so here's what happened in Virginia last night...

In the 8th District (Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church and Reston), Mark Ellmore defeated Amit Singh for the Republican nomination in a heavily Democrat district currently held by the flamboyant Jim Moran. This is a disappointment for the Ron Paul crowd as Singh was of that variety. No changes here, still Solid DEM.

District 10 (Manassas, Herndon, McLean, Winchester, Loudoun County) will see a rematch between veteran incumbent Frank Wolf and 2006 Democrat dark horse Judy Feder, whose campaign gave Wolf a relatively closer-than-expected victory margin. Wolf easily dispatched challenger Vern McKinley while Feder defeated retired Air Force Colonel Mike Turner. Wolf should still be favored.

The four-way Democratic battle in District 11 (Annandale, Woodbridge, Burke, Fairfax, Vienna) concluded with Fairfax County Board Chair Gerry Connolly finishing on top over three other candidates including former Congresswoman Leslie Byrne. The race was a toss-up due to Republican businessman Keith Fimian's robust early numbers (which include some of his own cash), though Connolly's individual money totals are not much different from Fimian, whose self-investment of $325K artificially still puts Fimian well ahead in fundraising. Based on these numbers, along with the Democrat trend that has been ongoing in Northern Virginia, and former Governor Mark Warner (2002-2006) the early favorite against former Governor Jim Gilmore (1998-2002) for retiring Senator John Warner's open seat, this race could shift toward Leans DEM, but for now it is still a Tossup.

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