The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XVIII: Louisiana

Last time, it was crab cakes and jousting in Maryland, but this next state -- just across the Sabine River from my home base -- is one where creole seafood is king and the jazz keeps on playing -- a place where the license plates say Sportsman's Paradise...

LOUISIANA

A state to all its own, Louisiana's counties are uniquely called "parishes", and instead of using English common law as a guiding purpose for state government, it uses the Louisiana Civil Code -- based upon French, German, Spanish and Roman legal systems and strongly influenced by Napoleonic Code. The Louisiana Purchase, which involved this state, would lead to the westward expansion of the United States and its emergence as a world superpower. The tallest state capitol in the United States is located here in the capital city of Baton Rouge.

Culturally, Louisiana's Spanish and French heritage is evident in various parts of the state. Southern Louisiana is noted for its large French Creole population, consisting of two groups: White French Creoles who tend to be of Spanish and French descent with at least one other European ethnicity present, and Black Creoles who also tend to have Native American and African roots. African Americans are a significant force in Louisiana, comprising nearly one-third of the population and mostly concentrated in the southeastern, northern and central parts of the state, including New Orleans. Northern Louisiana boasts a significant Southern Caucasian population, sharing a similar Protestant background with those of neighboring states. New Orleans also boasts significant white ethnic populations, such as Irish and Italian groups and a sizable Jewish community, as well as various Latino groups including a large Honduran community. The state also has a significant Filipino population.

Louisiana's economy includes a significant seafood sector, producing 90% of the world's crawfish, and the McIlhenny Company, makers of Tabasco sauce, hails from Avery Island. The world's largest bulk cargo port is housed on the Mississippi River between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, and a growing film industry is emerging in Shreveport, which has been given the nickname "Hollywood South". New Orleans is also a tourism hotbed, having hosted several Super Bowls, conventions, jazz festivals, sports spectaculars, and Mardi Gras. Finally, oil and gas deposits are prevalent here in this state, and such industries can determine the fortunes of the state's economic health, part of its recent population decline can be attributed to the consolidation of America's oil and gas industries across the Sabine River in nearby Houston.

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, along with a mouthful of negative connotations regarding the state and associated as well as a longstanding tradition of corruption, have impacted Louisiana's fortunes in recent years. The loss of many African-Americans during Hurricane Katrina combined with a poor perception of the state's traditional Democratic establishment resulted in the election of Republican Governor Bobby Jindal, the only major (House, Senate, gubernatorial) pickup for the Republicans since Inauguration Day 2005, and a consensus that the state is trending in the Republicans' favor. However, Democrats are aided by weak GOP prospects, the recent pickup of a House seat in this state, and the resurgence of New Orleans. At least one House seat could see a flip, and the most vigorous primary challenge in America looms in another.

District 1 (S-Factor 17.5 GOP): This is my paternal grandmother's district, situated in the New Orleans suburbs surrounding Lake Pontchartrain and part of the city itself. Bobby Jindal vacated this seat to become governor, and his replacement likewise is a Republican himself, Steve Scalise, who had just been sworn in to his State Senate seat before Jindal left Washington for Baton Rouge. The Democrats are fielding technology executive Jim Harlan (who has poured half a million dollars into his efforts) and former assistant U.S. Air Force Inspector General Vinny Mendoza, but Scalise should be more than safe for the long run. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 27.8 DEM): This district, based in much of heavily Democratic New Orleans and some of its suburbs, is not going to -- in any way, shape or form -- flip to anything other than Democrat, but it is competitive for a reason. Incumbent William Jefferson is dogged by ethics controversies including an FBI raid which turned up thousands of dollars in Jefferson's freezer. Now stripped of his committee assignments, Jefferson is in the fight of his political career. His opponents include New Orleans City Councilman James Carter, former New Orleans Intergovernmental Relations Director Kenya Smith, New Orleans School Board Member Jimmy Fahrenholtz, former TV newscaster Helena Moreno, State Representative Cedric Richmond, former State Representative Troy "C" Carter, and Jefferson Parish Councilman Byron Lee. Attorney Anh Cao is the only Republican who filed for this seat. Prediction: Tossup Jefferson, Solid DEM afterwards.

District 3 (S-Factor 4.5 GOP): While this southeastern and south central Louisiana district (including such cities as New Iberia and Chalmette) leans Republican, it is absolutely not out of reach for a Democrat, such as Charlie Melancon, who first came here on a squeaker in 2004 and faced a competitive race in 2006. This time, Melancon is home free. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 6.3 GOP): Jim McCrery's retirement from this conservative-leaning northwest Louisiana district dominated by metropolitan Shreveport has thrown this district into play. Three Republicans have filed to run: trucking company executive Chris Gorman, former local chamber of commerce boss Jeff Thompson, and former coroner John Fleming. The Democrats are pinning their hopes on Caddo District Attorney Paul Carmouche, who has been competitive with each of the three Republican candidates. Attorneys Willie Banks and John Milkovich, along with 2006 candidate Artis Cash are also running on the Dem side. Prediction: Tossup.

District 5 (S-Factor 9.0 GOP): Monroe, Alexandria and northeastern Louisiana dominate the landscape in this conservative district, which has been represented by former Democrat-turned-Republican Rodney Alexander since 2002. Conservative activist Andrew Clack is the only challenger to face Alexander, albeit a very minor one. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 6.3 GOP): Richard Baker left Congress recently to take a private sector position as President of the Managed Funds Association, throwing this Baton Rouge-centric seat into a competitive tussel that resulted in a takeover by Democrat and State Representative Don Cazayoux. The Republicans fielded a controversial candidate in newspaper publisher and former State Representative Woody Jenkins, which hurt GOP prospects for this seat. Following the loss of this seat, Republicans are not taking any chances this time: the new GOP candidate for the general election is the far more electable State Senator Bill Cassidy. Michael Jackson, an African-American State Representative who lost to Cazayoux in the special election primary, is running as an independent and could steal potential voters who would otherwise normally go for Cazayoux, making Cassidy a potential GOP pickup prospect. Prediction: Tossup.

District 7 (S-Factor 7.0 GOP): Acadiana is the dominant focus of this southwestern Louisiana district which includes Lafayette and Lake Charles. Incumbent Charles Boustany has held this seat since 2004, yet a potential Democrat dark horse bid has emerged in State Senator Don Cravins Jr., but there has yet to be fireworks in this race as Cravins filed just as filing closed earlier this month. Prediction: Solid GOP.

Next stop: Wisconsin.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XVII: Maryland

A dozen days have passed since Dixie (and Eurobamapalooza '08 in between now and then)...

Yes, quite a bit embarrassing, but it is now time to pick up the pace and head off to a state that is neither Southern by the grace of God nor clearly in the blue blood of the Northeast...

MARYLAND

A border state that is now the wealthiest in America, Maryland's inception can be attributed to George Calvert's desire to create a colony favorable to Catholics, after a failed attempt to create such a colony further north (and north of the border) in Newfoundland. In fact, conflict continued as Pennsylvania debated as to where their southern border was (i.e. part of Philadelphia would have fallen into Maryland's jurisdiction), and it was not until Englishmen Charles Mason and Jeremiah Dixon stepped in to review the boundaries, thus the Mason-Dixon line which serves as a symbolic boundary between the North and South. Eventually, Maryland became one of America's original thirteen colonies.

Today, Maryland boasts a diverse economic base comprised largely of transportation-related industries, including the Port of Baltimore, government services attributed to Washington, D.C., which Maryland donated to create a district independent of any state, and major research hubs, both educational and medical, including the United States Naval Academy in Annapolis and Johns Hopkins University, which boasts an internationally-acclaimed medical school. The author of the Star-Spangled Banner, Francis Scott Key, hails from Maryland. The state also gave us Babe Ruth, Harriet Tubman, Edgar Allan Poe, Spiro Agnew, Cal Ripken Jr., Tom Clancy, Upton Sinclair, Thurgood Marshall, David Hasselhoff, Frank Zappa, Matt Drudge, Montel Williams, John Wilkes Booth, Frederick Douglass, Anna Faris, Ben Stein, Michael Phelps, and the band O.A.R., among many others (Yes, a laundry list of people). The tallest (and shortest) members of Congress ever to serve came from here as well: 6'11" Tom McMillen and 4'11" Barbara Mikulski. As with any state, politicians from out-of-state can be traced to here as well, including California-based House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (yes, her father was a former mayor of Baltimore) and Baltimore-born Texas State Senator and conservative talk radio host Dan Patrick.

Maryland is a Democrat's dream. The state's Democrat establishment has run the show here for over 150 years, and as the Democrats shift the state hops on the bandwagon. With many jobs in the state fixated on the federal government and a large African-American population of over 30 percent, Democrats have always considered Maryland amongst its strongest states. The state's Eastern Shore and western areas however tend to vote Republican, along with several suburban areas of Baltimore, though the latter region also tends to back conservative Democrats. While nothing much is going on in Maryland this year, Barack Obama's presence at the top of the ticket could aid Democrats.

District 1 (S-Factor 9.3 GOP): Wayne Gilchrest had it all. A dedicated citizen-legislator, Gilchrest went from teaching at a local high school to serving in Congress for nine successive terms, often winning re-election by margins between two-thirds and three-quarters. It was not until Gilchrest voted in favor a bill calling for withdrawing troops for Iraq that his votes began to catch up with him, in which State Senator, Naval Reservist and physician Andy Harris knocked off the nine-term incumbent with help from much of the local GOP establishment. While the district, covering the Eastern Shore and several Baltimore suburbs, is conservative on paper, and Harris is still favored to win, Gilchrest's more moderate supporters have been stumping for the Democrat candidate, Queen Anne's County State's Attorney Frank Kratovil. The result is a fairly competitive race, with one poll showing Harris leading by only nine points. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 7.8 DEM): Various Baltimore suburbs, mostly along a stretch of I-95 including Severn, Essex, Dundalk, and Towson, dot the landscape here along with parts of Baltimore itself. Incumbent Dutch Ruppersberger is safe in this fairly moderate district, but Republicans have fielded a Ron Paul-style candidate in computer systems engineer Richard Matthews. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 7.5 DEM): As the sun set on Paul Sarbanes' career in the U.S. Senate, John Sarbanes set his sights on Congress to continue his father's presence in Washington in 2006 after Ben Cardin sought the Senate seat, with success. This time, Sarbanes is safe against insurance broker Pinkston Harris in a district that cuts across parts of Baltimore to include various northern suburbs and then stretches across a strip of suburbs stretching out to Annapolis (Yes, Maryland has one of the absolute worst congressional district arrangements in the country, just look at the district map here and you will see why). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 29.8 DEM): This predominantly African-American, middle-class district, situated in the Washington suburbs including Montgomery and Prince George's counties (with an emphasis on the latter), saw a recent change of the guard following the defeat of incumbent Al Wynn, a moderate-to-conservative Democrat by African-American Democrat standards. Attorney and community activist Donna Edwards, who defeated Wynn in the primary, later came to Congress early after Wynn retired from Congress last June. She will once again face libertarian Republican computer consultant Peter James. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 9.3 DEM): Southern Maryland has been the focus of House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer since 1981 when Gladys Spellman fell into a coma and as a result, her district became vacant. Since then, Hoyer has been a consistent lock for re-election in this district, and is once again heavily favored over lumber broker and Charles County school board member Collins Bailey. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 12.5 GOP): This is perhaps the most Republican district in the Old Line State, stretching from the western portion of the state all the way to the outer Baltimore and Washington suburbs (such as Frederick and Carroll counties). The congressman is a citizen-legislator himself: Roscoe Bartlett, who has served as a professor, businessman, scientist, inventor, and farmer -- a jack of all trades. Democrats are fielding former Frederick mayor Jennifer Dougherty this year, but Bartlett has generally won by fairly comfortable margins or better in this district. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 25.5 DEM): Elijah Cummings has generally had no trouble winning re-election in this district. After all, it contains most of heavily Democratic Baltimore City and Democratic-leaning western suburbs. Another libertarian Republican candidate awaits Cummings in dentist Mike Hargadon. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 20.0 DEM): This district is purely blue, covering most of the liberal-leaning Montgomery County suburbs of Washington (including all of the county's Potomac River shoreline) and a sliver of Prince George's County. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Chris Van Hollen won't have to worry about his district; he is virtually bulletproof against surgeon and attorney Steve Hudson. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Louisiana.

UPDATE!

Colorado's 4th District (Fort Collins, Greeley and an eastern shaving of the state) is a bit more competitive now. The GOP normally performs fairly strong out here (though Fort Collins appears purple-to-blue on paper), but incumbent Marilyn Musgrave's social conservatism has been a red flag of sorts in the libertarian-minded West. The Democrats are fielding a sizable candidate in former Senatorial (via Ken Salazar) staffer Betsy Markey, who has not only outraised Musgrave in the past quarter, but has the lion's share of donations coming in from Colorado itself. Will Musgrave hang on? New prediction: Leans GOP.

Chris Bell 2.0 (er...4.0)

The race to replace former State Senator Kyle Janek is growing. Three Republicans are running: former Bush 41 appointee and low-tax activist Austen Furse, GOP precinct chair (nothing significant; there are several) Grant Harpold, and former Harris County felony court judge Joan Huffman.

The fourth candidate pops up, this time a Democrat. The name: Chris Bell.

That's right, the former gubernatorial candidate, one-term congressman, and one-time mayoral candidate is throwing his hat into the ring. In order to win without going to a runoff, Bell will have to amass 50 percent of the vote, and his strengths lie in name recognition and background. The question is, how will he outrun the GOP establishment? The 17th State Senate District, which Janek vacated recently, looks so irregular on paper that it practically resembles a splatter from a Jackson Pollock painting. Don't believe me? Here's the lowdown:

• The district begins in Harris County, in the Bellaire/Meyerland/West University Place area near the Texas Medical Center. This area is relatively pink (slightly GOP but willing to vote Democrat sometimes), and tends to be socially liberal.
• After taking in a chunk of the Sharpstown area, it connects along a stretch of Richmond Avenue beginning west of Voss Road. It then takes in much of west Houston west of Dairy Ashford south of I-10 and west of State Highway 6 north of I-10, including the Alief area, the Energy Corridor, and much of the Katy area within Harris including the Barker Reservoir. Significant GOP areas exist here, though Alief tends to be more Democratic.
  
• The district goes southward into Fort Bend County, taking in Meadows Place, much of Sugar Land (myself included) and southern Missouri City, along with a large rural expanse in the southeast of the county that houses the Brazos Bend State Park and the George Observatory. This is a largely Republican area with traces of ethnic diversity.
  
• A significant western shaving of Brazoria County is thrown into the district, including the Lake Jackson and Freeport areas as well as smaller communities such as Sweeny and Surfside Beach. It is a relatively Republican area.
• Galveston County is the next stop in this district, including the heavily Democratic enclave of Galveston Island. And yes, the Galveston Seawall is in this district. A piece of Texas City is thrown into this district as well. The heavily Democratic base here includes unionized refinery workers.
• Finally, the district goes along a stretch of State Highway 87 to include Port Arthur, which boasts a significant African-American population and tends to vote Democrat.
  

While 3-to-2 Republican on paper, a Democrat could conceivably win this seat (hence the boast of so-called "changing demographics"). After all, this was once the domain of State Senator Babe Schwartz, whose liberal-leaning oratory according to Texas Monthly was "the best entertainment the Capitol had to offer."

Now to think about it, how do the dynamics of this race shape up? Stay tuned...

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XVI: Alabama

Last time, I traversed through a state that straddles the line between the lower fringes of the Midwest and the upper tier of the South. Now, we travel across the state line into one state that clearly defines the Deep South...

ALABAMA

Alabama's early beginnings are very well divided into two separate stories, with its southern portion settled by the French, then settled by the British as "West Florida" before falling into the hands of the Spanish. Northern and central Alabama comprised "British Georgia" during British control of southern Alabama, and eventually fell into the hands of the Americans as part of the Mississippi territory. In 1819, Alabama, north and south, became the 22nd state admitted to the United States. After the Civil War, and a stint in the Confederate States of America, Alabama became known for its paramilitary groups and Jim Crow laws which not only disenfranchised African-Americans, but also poorer whites as well. The Montgomery Bus Boycott, in which Rosa Parks' refusal to give up her seat on a bus to a white passenger, sparked the beginning of the Civil Rights movement and the collapse of Jim Crow.

Today, Alabama boasts a thriving industrial corridor, thanks to its increasing automotive manufacturing base, which is second only to Michigan. A growing healthcare sector is evident in the Birmingham area, including the University of Alabama at Birmingham and its hospital, and HealthSouth, a rehabilitative health services company. Birmingham also boasts significant banking, insurance, engineering, construction and telecom industries as well. The NASA George C. Marshall Space Flight Center and U.S. Army Missile Command are key pillars of the economy in northern Alabama. Alabama's only saltwater port, located in Mobile, provides inland waterway access to the Midwest. The state is situated in the heart of the Bible Belt; a recent survey showed seven-tenths of Alabamians could name the four Christian Gospels.

As it has been historically with most Southern states, conservative Democrats (who tend to be economically progressive in comparison to the Republicans) control both houses of the Alabama Legislature, owing to its days as a pillar of the "Solid South" prior to the 1970s. At the federal level, Republicans run the show; the state last went Democrat for President in 1976 with fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter. At the congressional level, the GOP holds a 5-2 majority. With Barack Obama's presence on the ticket looking to put the South in play, conservative Democrats looking to add to its Blue Dog ranks, and Republicans hoping for a 2010 renaissance at the state legislative level, Alabama is starting to emerge as a congressional battleground in 2008.

District 1 (S-Factor 11.5 GOP): This district covers the Mobile area and southwestern Alabama and is heavily Republican. The incumbent is Jo Bonner, who first came to Congress in 2003 to succeed Sonny Callahan. The Democrat nominee is Washington County Democratic Chair Tommy Fuller. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 12.5 GOP): Terry Everett has decided to call it a career, throwing open his conservative congressional seat in the Montgomery and Dothan areas. State Representative Jay Love is the Republican nominee following a bruising primary and runoff. The Democrats have coalesced around Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright and have made this a top-tier race, but Love is an initial favorite. Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): Mike Rogers represents the rest of Montgomery along with several areas of eastern Alabama including Auburn, Talladega, Anniston, and Tuskegee. A Democrat dark horse bid has emerged in attorney Josh Segall, whose fundraising has been fairly competitive with Rogers' warchest. The edge currently belongs to the incumbent, however. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 15.3 GOP): North central Alabama dominates this district, including Decatur and such towns as Jasper and Gadsden. The incumbent, Robert Aderholt, is expected to win re-election over Democrat attorney Nick Sparks. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 6.3 GOP): A dark horse bid for the GOP has emerged in this northern Alabama district that includes the Huntsville and Florence areas following the surprise retirement of Bud Cramer. The GOP nominee is Wayne Parker, an advertising executive who ran in 1994 and 1996 when GOP prospects were very strong. However, Republicans shot themselves in the foot when Parker failed to make it past the 50% benchmark and was forced into a runoff which he won last night by a lopsided margin (81 percent to be specific). The Democrats have recruited State Senator Parker Griffith, who falls along the same Blue Dog cracks as Cramer, to be their standard bearer for this district. Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 24.8 GOP): This is one of the most Republican districts in the nation, dominated by many of the Birmingham area's affluent outposts and its suburbs. As a living testament, the incumbent, House Financial Services Committee Chair Spencer Bachus, isn't even facing a Democrat this year. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 16.5 DEM): Whereas the 6th is the reddest district in the state, the 7th is the Democrats' strongest suit, covering Birmingham, Tuscaloosa and much of the Black Belt including Selma. Incumbent Artur Davis, considered a rising star in the Democratic Party, will not be facing Republican opposition this year. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Maryland.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XV: Tennessee

This year, both parties will be searching for an unprecedented amount of volunteers to power their campaigns in what will be one of the biggest blockbuster election years in American history. This next state is one where volunteers are very commonplace...

TENNESSEE

Known as the Volunteer State due to the prominence of its volunteer soldiers during the War of 1812, Tennessee is a state that is geographically distinct in three regions, with the Great Smoky Mountains in the East, the Mississippi River to its West, and plateaus in the middle of the state such as the Cumberland Plateau. The world's largest air cargo operation can be found in Memphis, home to FedEx, and whiskey is plentiful here (Jack Daniel's and George Dickel are both produced in this state). Tennessee is also noted for its country music industry (the capital city of Nashville is home to the Grand Ole Opry where many country music greats have performed), and was the home of Elvis Presley, who died at his Memphis estate known as Graceland. The state has also given us Dolly Parton, Kenny Chesney, The Allman Brothers Band, and Justin Timberlake, as well as movie and TV stars Morgan Freeman, Cybill Shepherd, Samuel L. Jackson, Megan Fox, Shannen Doherty, Wink Martindale, Johnny Knoxville, and Fred Thompson, one of many Republicans who sought the GOP nod this year.

Politically, it is one of the Democrats' stronger states in a region that has become dominated by the Republican Party. Southern Democrats especially have done well here such as Jimmy Carter and Al Gore, a former U.S. Senator from this state. Furthermore, the state also spawned Andrew Jackson, the first President to hail from today's Democratic Party. Five of its nine members of Congress are Democrats, two of whom represent purely liberal seats in the urban cores of Memphis and Nashville. The other three districts are largely rural and rather competitive, with two fixated around the Nashville suburbs and a third covering rural western areas with a significant number of rural black voters. Of the four Republican districts, three are in East Tennessee whose Republican dominance dates back to Reconstruction (the region strongly supported the Union during the Civil War). The fourth Republican-held district connects many of Memphis' suburban areas with some of Nashville's outskirts. Tennessee is one of the better states for Republicans this year due to the lack of relatively competitive races in this state, save for a couple of primary challenges to incumbents.

NOTE: The primary is on August 7, 2008. Predictions could change based on various circumstances.

District 1 (S-Factor 13.3 GOP): David Davis' road to Congress in 2006 to succeed the now-retired Bill Jenkins was not particularly easy. He managed to win the GOP nod, the real contest in this Tri-Cities (Bristol/Johnson City/Kingsport) district, with only 22 percent among a baker's dozen of Republicans. One of the challengers who lost to Davis, Johnson City Mayor Phil Roe, is trying again and has outraised the incumbent. Engineer Michael Sabri is also running. Whoever comes out of the gate this time will be favored over the Democrats' nominee, either municipal employee Michael Donihe or teacher Rob Russell. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 11.0 GOP): Jimmy Duncan is a safe Republican in a historically Republican district based in the Knoxville area. The Democrats will choose from either David Ryan Hancock or Bob Scott, but neither will make even a bump on the noggin. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): Zach Wamp's district is mostly comprised of the Chattanooga area, which tends to be more Democratic compared to the rest of East Tennessee. Wamp will only face minimal primary opposition from insurance agent Teresa Sheppard and minimal general opposition from frequent candidate Doug Vandagriff. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 2.8 GOP): This district is typical of swing districts in Tennessee: socially conservative but willing to vote Democrat. The incumbent, Lincoln Davis, is one of the more conservative Democrats covering rural territory in the state's east central and southern portions. A potentially dark horse GOP bid exists in Monty Lankford, a hospital equipment entrepreneur who has been competitive with Davis thus far but who is facing a pretty bad year for elephants everywhere. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 6.8 DEM): While a relatively competitive district on paper, the Democrats have the edge here due to the Democratic stronghold of Nashville and its blue core of academics, union votes and government employees wary of small-government conservatives. The incumbent, Jim Cooper, should have no trouble getting re-elected against business consultant Gerard Donovan. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 3.5 GOP): The dean of Tennessee's congressional delegation, Bart Gordon came to Congress in 1984 to succeed successful U.S. Senate candidate/eventual Vice President Al Gore and now chairs the House Science and Technology Committee. The GOP is not fielding a candidate in this rural central Tennessee district that has been becoming more suburban in nature. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 7 (S-Factor 13.3 GOP): This is perhaps the most Republican district in the state outside of East Tennessee, connecting eastern suburbs of Memphis with several suburbs of Nashville. The incumbent, Marsha Blackburn, is facing a primary challenge from Shelby County Register Tom Leatherwood, but whoever wins will face either Randy Morris or Jim Tomasik, the latter of whom is also an activist for the FairTax, usually a cause of rabid conservative talk radio listeners. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 8 (S-Factor 0.5 DEM): Rural West Tennessee dominates this district, including such towns as Union City and Jackson, the latter town of which is named for the former President. Only one person has filed to run for this seat: incumbent John Tanner. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 23.0 DEM): This is the most liberal district in the state, centered around Memphis. While former congressman Harold Ford, Jr. bolted to run for the U.S. Senate (and came close), Steve Cohen defeated a truckload of other Democrat candidates to win his party's nomination, and in effect the general election becoming the first Jewish congressman in Tennessee. Despite being represented by a Democrat in a very blue, heavily African-American district, some African-American Democrats still continue to hold reservations about Cohen, who has even drawn criticism from local African-American ministers due to his support for a hate-crimes bill. A host of black candidates, including attorney Nikki Tinker, are running against Cohen in the Democrat primary. No Republicans are running. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Alabama.

Dr. Michael DeBakey (1908-2008)

Houston has lost a world pioneer in heart medicine and surgery. On Friday night, Dr. Michael DeBakey passed away from natural causes at the age of 99 -- two months short of his 100th birthday.

Dr. DeBakey was the product of Lebanese immigrants, born September 7, 1908 across the Sabine River in Lake Charles, Louisiana. When he received his Bachelor's and medical degrees from Tulane University in 1932, heart disease was practically a fatal condition, once recalling "...If a patient came in with a heart attack, it was up to God." During his time in medical school, DeBakey created the roller pump, which acts as the defacto heart during open-heart surgery. It was the beginning of a multitude of innovations that bear Dr. DeBakey's name; over 70 surgical instruments were created with at least partial involvement from Dr. DeBakey.

Dr. DeBakey also invented a new blood transfusion needle, suture scissors, and colostomy clamp in his early days when he taught at Tulane before serving in World War II developing MASH units and special facilities for the returning wounded. He returned to Tulane before joining Baylor College of Medicine (at the time affiliated with the namesake university in Waco) in 1948. His many patients ranged from hardscrabble Houstonians to heads of state (such as the Shah of Iran and Richard Nixon), and every other socioeconomic group in between. He also once served as a consultant to a surgical team that operated on Russian President Boris Yeltsin. Over 50,000 surgeries were performed by Dr. DeBakey by 1992. In February 2006, Dr. DeBakey himself underwent a surgery he developed earlier -- to repair a damaged aorta.

At Baylor, Dr. DeBakey performed the first Dacron graft and later began coronary artery bypasses by the 1960s. In 1962, DeBakey began work on an artificial heart -- culminating in the invention of a partial artificial heart. When a full such heart was developed in 1969 by one of his former students, Dr. Denton Cooley, the National Heart Institute sounded the alarm and censured Dr. Cooley, who ended up leaving Baylor following a heated rivalry with Dr. DeBakey over their research (The recipient, Haskell Karp, received a heart transplant after a five-day stint on the artificial heart and tragically lasted a day and a half afterwards). Dr. Cooley went over to St. Luke's Episcopal Hospital to launch the Texas Heart Institute. The two rival surgeons eventually made amends in 2007. Dr. DeBakey received a multitude of awards and honors, and continued to practice medicine to the day he died.

In full, Dr. DeBakey's death is not only an enormous loss for all of Greater Houston and the Texas Medical Center, but it is also a loss for the world of medicine as well. Without the pioneering prowess of Dr. DeBakey, chances are our life expectancies would have been shorter, heart disease would continue to be a relatively fatal condition and the Med Center would not be the most prominent medical complex in the world; in fact, more heart surgeries have been performed here than anywhere else globally. It is especially crucial in these days and times that heart medicine is seen as especially important given all the various setbacks related to heart conditions that have been gaining worldwide attention such as obesity, diabetes, cancer and various other ailments.

Dr. Michael DeBakey has passed on, but his spirit of innovation, courage and perseverance in one of the most enduring, controversial and challenging professions of study will forever live on.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XIV: Pennsylvania

Last time, I made some big waves going through Hawaii which not surprisingly had relatively quiet ones. Now it is time to go from the youngest state in the Union to an even bigger, far shakier one that is among the oldest...

PENNSYLVANIA

Known as "PA" by the locals, and also known as the Keystone State for being square in the middle of the Original 13, Pennsylvania accounts for 9% of America's woodlands and lays claim to Gettysburg, home of the battle that served as the turning point of the Civil War. Known for having its early history rooted in the Religious Society of Friends, or Quakers, PA is also home to the largest concentration of Amish in America and the most covered bridges of any state.

The state is home to 50 Fortune 500 companies but is divided economically, with Philadelphia and its suburbs dominated by insurance and financial interests (among others) and Pittsburgh boasting various aspects of working class grit in steel and ketchup (Heinz is based in Pittsburgh). The nation's oldest zoo is located in Philadelphia and recreation is plentiful, with 121 state parks offering free admission, a slew of amusement parks, and great professional and college sports teams, not to mention the Mario Andretti racing dynasty, the Little League World Series in Williamsport, and Latrobe native and golf legend Arnold Palmer. Snack food is a common sight here as well; it is a major producer of pretzels, potato chips, chocolate, and Peeps (I wonder if they are offering red elephants and blue donkeys this year).

In the current lexicon, Pennsylvania is a swing state. The current Governor, Democrat Ed Rendell once chaired the Democratic National Committee and served as the mayor of Philadelphia, while the General Assembly is relatively split with a Republican Senate and a Democrat House led by a Republican Speaker. Democrats dominate in the city of Philadelphia and in various metropolitan areas such as Pittsburgh, Allentown, Erie and Scranton whereas Republicans run the show in its rural heart. The recipe for victory lies in the wealthy suburbs of Philadelphia, which tends toward moderate Republicanism and has warmed towards Democrats in recent elections, courtesy of the Vocal Fringe (more on that later).

While the 2006 elections were a disaster for Republicans, no state showed it more than Pennsylvania did, with Gov. Rendell cruising to victory, Rick Santorum losing his Senate seat by the worst margin for an incumbent in Pennsylvania history since we started directly electing our U.S. Senators, and four house seats going to the Democrats: two by scandal, two by surprise. Pennsylvania is a key battleground once again for both parties this year, even though moderate Senator Arlen Specter is not in play until 2010.

District 1 (S-Factor 35.8 DEM): Known for its cheesesteak purveyors (Whiz wit, please!), the Philadelphia Sports Complex (home to the Eagles, Phillies, 76ers and Flyers), and America's oldest and largest outdoor market (the 9th Street Italian Market), the 1st otherwise has a very working-class atmosphere replete with a strong union presence and overwhelming margins for Democrats. The chair of the Philadelphia Democratic Party, Bob Brady, happens to be the representative for this district in South Philadelphia. He should have no trouble against little-known Mike Muhammad. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 39.0 DEM): Center City Philadelphia and the William Penn statue are the focal point of this heavily African-American district that is a slam dunk for Chaka Fattah, who thus far is only facing opposition from the Socialist Workers Party. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 1.3 GOP): Phil English is a moderate pro-labor Republican in a very competitive district centered in the Democratic stronghold of Erie. Democrats believe that he is vulnerable (he only got 54% against a third-tier donkey in 2006) and are hoping Lake Erie Arboretum Director Kathy Dahlkemper can hitch a ride along the ever-evolving Obamamotive. The D-Trip is hailing Dahlkemper as an emerging candidate, but she has yet to match the coffers of English. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 2.3 GOP): Former high school football all-star turned health care system executive Jason Altmire was one of the dark horse masters of 2006, upsetting three-term incumbent Melissa Hart with 52% of the vote in this suburban Pittsburgh district. Hart is wanting her old job back, but the power of incumbency in this historically Democrat district and a healthy flow of cash (Altmire leads the money train by a 3-to-1 margin) gives Altmire the early edge. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 9.3 GOP): John Peterson has called it a career in this central Pennsylvania district (home to Penn State) that is heavily Republican in nature, hence the GOP is favored to hold this seat. However, the GOP nominee, Centre County GOP boss Glenn Thompson only secured a measley 19.4 percent of the vote against eight other challengers to win the party's nod and has struggled mightly in fundraising (several of his primary challengers raised considerably more). The Democrat nominee is Clearfield County Commissioner Mike McCracken. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 2.5 DEM): Jim Gerlach has never gotten an easy break in his district, situated in between suburban Philadelphia, Lancaster and Reading, since winning it in 2002. Retired businessman Bob Roggio is the Democrat aiming to take the seat from Gerlach, but Gerlach has crafted an image as a moderate Republican, the kind of elephant that delivers the votes in suburban Philadelphia (in this case, parts of Chester and Montgomery counties). Roggio has also stirred controversy after blasting Gerlach for missing votes...votes Gerlach missed to attend his mother's funeral. The Dems still have a chance, but they might have already blew it. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 3.8 DEM): Delaware County's historically strong GOP voter edge was not enough to keep Curt Weldon in office, as retired military officer Joe Sestak shoved out the longtime incumbent, who fell under the microscope of the FBI late in the campaign due to involvement with Russian and Serbian energy and business interests. The GOP is fielding a second-rate candidate in former Assistant U.S. Attorney Craig Williams, whose treasury ($133K) is anemic compared to that of Sestak (well over $2.3M). Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 3.5 DEM): Mike Fitzpatrick managed to narrowly secure Bucks County (the district's dominant portion) in his re-election bid in 2006, but it was not enough to overcome the Democratic margins in the rest of the district (northeast Philadelphia and part of Montgomery County) that sent Patrick Murphy to Congress. The GOP is fielding pharmaceuticals executive Tom Manion whose son was a casualty of the Iraq War, a war that Murphy himself fought. Right now, it appears Murphy is winning the battle but Manion is aiming to close the gap. Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 14.5 GOP): This heavily rural - and Republican - district is nestled in the state's southern portions including Altoona and the site of Flight 93 in Shanksville. The incumbent, Bill Shuster, will face repeat challenger Tony Barr. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 10 (S-Factor 7.5 GOP): This is one district that was not expected to go Democrat, but the curtains closed on Don Sherwood's career after he came under fire for allegations that he allegedly choked a woman with whom he admitted having an extramarital affair. This benefitted former Defense Department consultant and Navy officer Chris Carney, who is now one of the most vulnerable Democrats in this cycle. The GOP just got off a bruising primary here in this northeastern Pennsylvania district (home to Williamsport and various areas surrounding Scranton/Wilkes-Barre) pitting wealthy One Source Staffing boss Chris Hackett against another wealthy businessman, Pride Mobility owner Dan Meuser. Hackett went on to win the primary, one so considerably nasty (Hackett was attacked for hiring an illegal immigrant to perform maid work whereas Meuser was also blasted for hiring illegals at his company) that Carney may actually benefit this year. Still, the district's red demographics make this race one to watch. Prediction: Tossup.

District 11 (S-Factor 5.3 DEM): Nothing has slowed longtime incumbent Paul Kanjorski much in his Democrat-leaning constituency comprising of the cities of Scranton and Wilkes-Barre and the lion's share of the Poconos. Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta has added considerable spice to this race. An ardent opponent of illegal immigration, Barletta has attracted considerable attention, even posting a poll showing him ahead of Kanjorski, 47 to 42 percent. However, the historically Democratic nature of this district gives Kanjorski a slight but not overwhelming edge...for now. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 12 (S-Factor 5.0 DEM): John Murtha faced a rather competitive battle last time against Washington County Commissioner Diana Irey who focused on Murtha's outspoken criticism of the Iraq War. Because of Murtha's presence in this Johnstown-centric district (the region's airport even bears his name) and a comfortable double-digit victory in 2006, Irey is not running again this year. The elephant this year? Businessman William Russell. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 13 (S-Factor 8.3 DEM): This district, situated in the heart of suburban Philadelphia's Montgomery County as well as Northeast Philadelphia, is the poster child of the suburban shift towards the Democrats since Pat Buchanan's infamous 1992 "culture war" speech that empowered the Vocal Fringe at the expense of true Republicans who believe in common sense fiscal discipline and social inclusiveness. It was a historically Republican seat that went heavily for George Bush the elder in 1988 and has since swung Democrat; no Republican has won this district since. The district's incumbent, Allyson Schwartz has won by comfortable margins both times in 2004 as an open seat contender and again in 2006 as the incumbent and has emerged as a prodigous fundraiser, with nearly $1.9 million in the bank as of the first quarter of 2008. The Republicans are fielding attorney Marina Kats, but it will take a lot to gain ground at this point. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 14 (S-Factor 21.5 DEM): Former Republican-turned-Democrat Mike Doyle has represented Pittsburgh and some of its inner suburbs since 1994, when he was one of a handful of Democrats to win GOP seats after taking Rick Santorum's old House seat when the latter bolted for the Senate. The Republicans aren't fielding a candidate this year. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 15 (S-Factor 2.0 DEM): This Lehigh Valley (Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton) district is very competitive in nature at the presidential level; normally the district's preference is eventually that of the state as a whole. Charlie Dent has carved an image of a moderate Republican, focusing on such pressing concerns as alternative energy while taking pragmatic stances on social issues such as opposing federal intervention in the Terri Schiavo controversy. Allentown's top donkey and two-time mayoral candidate, Sam Bennett has made the cut as an emerging contender for the Democrats, but Dent has yet to stall despite a somewhat lackluster performance in 2006 (53.6% to 43.5%). Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 16 (S-Factor 11.0 GOP): Joe Pitts represents a largely Republican district situated in the heart of Pennsylvania Dutch Country including such cities as Lancaster, West Chester and Reading. The Democrat running is party activist and contractor Bruce Slater. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 17 (S-Factor 11.0 GOP): Home to the capital city of Harrisburg and surrounding areas, the district is a heavily Republican one represented by a Democrat in Tim Holden, who has managed to stave off his GOP challengers thus far. The Republican candidate is retired police officer Toni Gilhooley. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 18 (S-Factor 2.0 GOP): Tim Murphy represents a relatively competitive district that takes in several suburbs surrounding Pittsburgh including most of Republican-leaning Westmoreland County. Murphy has come under fire for allegations he violated some House rules, which could give businessman and Navy vet Steve O'Donnell some ammunition to use in this race. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 19 (S-Factor 11.8 GOP): This district includes the city of York - the nation's first Capital - as well as Gettysburg, home of the famed Civil War battle. Todd Platts, the moderate GOP incumbent since 2000, has hardly faced strong challenges since being elected to this district, running without Democrat opposition in 2002 and 2004, and his Democrat challenger this year is the same as his in 2006, former York School Board President Phil Avillo. Prediction: Solid GOP.

Next stop: Tennessee.

Happy Birthday, America!

Today, the United States of America turns 232 years old! Here's to this great nation and our beloved forefathers for generations of enduring democracy, freedom and leadership. We have been through the best days America has ever seen, and our best days are very well ahead.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XIII: Hawaii

Aloha! As we celebrate America's Birthday, we go now to the youngest -- and spottiest (in geographical terms) -- state in America...

HAWAII

Admitted to the Union on August 21, 1959, Hawaii comprises itself of an archipelago of islands including Kauai, O'ahu, Maui and the island of Hawai'i and many others. The state traces its history back to the Polynesians whose roots here date back to c. 300-500 A.D and is one of only four states that is majority-minority, boasting the largest percentage of Asian Americans of any state. Hawaii's economy has been led by tourism since becoming a state; its various industries have consisted over the years of pineapple, military installations, sugarcane, sandalwood and various other exotic specialities. Besides being a popular tourist attraction, Hawaii has also attracted fame with such films either set in or inspired by this state as South Pacific and Jurassic Park and police serials in the form of Magnum P.I. and Hawaii Five-O. Not to mention the hit drama LOST and musician Jack Johnson.

In its short history, the Democrats have dominated this state in the presidential race with the only aberrations from Democratic dominance coming in 1972 and 1984 (both landslide years for the GOP). This dominance can be traced to statehood when officeholders from the Republican Party (backed by plantation owners in this state) were replaced by Democrats for their spots, creating a longstanding dominance that was broken recently courtesy of the 2002 election (and 2006 re-election) of Governor Linda Lingle. This year, there is no doubt that Hawaii will go blue once again, as it is the birth state of presumed Democrat nominee Barack Obama, no Senate seat is up for grabs and the House slate is rather boring at this point.

NOTE: The primary is on September 20, 2008. Predictions could change based on various circumstances and filing has not closed yet until July 15, 2008.

District 1 (S-Factor 6.8 DEM): Okay, in a two-district situation your more urban district votes more Democratic and your more rural one more Republican. Hawaii has it backwards, with the Honolulu-centric district being the more Republican of the two. Longtime incumbent Neil Abercrombie has represented this district since 1990 and also for a short while in 1986 after Cecil Heftel resigned to run for Governor. His Republican opposition consists thus far of grad student Daniel Brackins and Honolulu City Councilman and attorney Charles Djou. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 9.5 DEM): Mazie Hirono came to Congress in 2006 as one of the first two Buddhists ever to grace the roster of Congress, albeit a non-practicing one. Her district covers the rest of Hawaii: Maui, Kauai, the Big Island and whatever parts of Oahu cannot fit into the 1st. So far, no elephants have shown up to face Hirono...yet. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Pennsylvania.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XII: Maine

South Carolina was quite nice with its pristine golf courses, beaches and southern hospitality, but now it's time to move up Interstate 95 to the most northern state on the East Coast, one that used to be "northern Massachusetts" at one time...

MAINE

Rocky and coastal on the outside and forested and mountainous on the inside, Maine is also noted for its lobster and clam industries, as well as being home to a quarter of North America's blueberry stock. Outdoor recreation and sports are commonplace in the state, including hunting, snowmobiling, and boating, and New England's busiest port is located in the state's largest city, Portland. Stephen King portrays Maine extensively in his novels, and Casper laid claim to this state in his 1996 movie, ironically in the town of Friendship. One of my all-time favorite films, The Shawshank Redemption, was set right here in this state, which also gave us Milton Bradley board games, L.L Bean clothing, producer David E. Kelley, and Patrick Dempsey (yes, Dr. McDreamy was born in Lewiston and raised in Turner).

Compared to most other states, Maine is very independent in its political outlook. Moderates, both Republican and Democrat, run the show here, and an independent governor has served here as recent as 2002. Maine currently leans to the left and has voted for Bill Clinton twice, Al Gore once, and John Kerry once, while also serving as Ross Perot's best state in 1992 and 1996. However, the U.S. Senate has rarely seen Democrat Senators from this state as its two current Senators are moderate Republicans in Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, and Kennebunkport is the longtime home of the Bush compound. While hardly any competition can be expected this year, Maine's independent streak could play a factor.

District 1 (S-Factor 6.3 DEM): Tom Allen is leaving his seat in the Portland area and the capital city of Augusta behind to challenge Susan Collins for her Senate seat, and the Democrats have nominated a well-known candidate in former Common Cause president Chellie Pingree. The Republicans are fielding Navy reservist and former Small Business Administration official Charlie Summers, who unsuccessfully challenged Allen in 2004, and will have some more breathing room in an open seat environment yet is surrounded by a poor GOP climate that could stymie an otherwise dark horse GOP bid. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 3.8 DEM): The rest of Maine, from Bangor to Presque Isle and all points north and west, is represented by Mike Michaud, who should have no trouble getting past Farmington Selectman John Frary despite the district's relative competitiveness and Frary's unusual campaign style replete with a website that resembles a Trader Joe's advertisement. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Hawaii.