The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XVIII: Louisiana

Last time, it was crab cakes and jousting in Maryland, but this next state -- just across the Sabine River from my home base -- is one where creole seafood is king and the jazz keeps on playing -- a place where the license plates say Sportsman's Paradise...

LOUISIANA

A state to all its own, Louisiana's counties are uniquely called "parishes", and instead of using English common law as a guiding purpose for state government, it uses the Louisiana Civil Code -- based upon French, German, Spanish and Roman legal systems and strongly influenced by Napoleonic Code. The Louisiana Purchase, which involved this state, would lead to the westward expansion of the United States and its emergence as a world superpower. The tallest state capitol in the United States is located here in the capital city of Baton Rouge.

Culturally, Louisiana's Spanish and French heritage is evident in various parts of the state. Southern Louisiana is noted for its large French Creole population, consisting of two groups: White French Creoles who tend to be of Spanish and French descent with at least one other European ethnicity present, and Black Creoles who also tend to have Native American and African roots. African Americans are a significant force in Louisiana, comprising nearly one-third of the population and mostly concentrated in the southeastern, northern and central parts of the state, including New Orleans. Northern Louisiana boasts a significant Southern Caucasian population, sharing a similar Protestant background with those of neighboring states. New Orleans also boasts significant white ethnic populations, such as Irish and Italian groups and a sizable Jewish community, as well as various Latino groups including a large Honduran community. The state also has a significant Filipino population.

Louisiana's economy includes a significant seafood sector, producing 90% of the world's crawfish, and the McIlhenny Company, makers of Tabasco sauce, hails from Avery Island. The world's largest bulk cargo port is housed on the Mississippi River between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, and a growing film industry is emerging in Shreveport, which has been given the nickname "Hollywood South". New Orleans is also a tourism hotbed, having hosted several Super Bowls, conventions, jazz festivals, sports spectaculars, and Mardi Gras. Finally, oil and gas deposits are prevalent here in this state, and such industries can determine the fortunes of the state's economic health, part of its recent population decline can be attributed to the consolidation of America's oil and gas industries across the Sabine River in nearby Houston.

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, along with a mouthful of negative connotations regarding the state and associated as well as a longstanding tradition of corruption, have impacted Louisiana's fortunes in recent years. The loss of many African-Americans during Hurricane Katrina combined with a poor perception of the state's traditional Democratic establishment resulted in the election of Republican Governor Bobby Jindal, the only major (House, Senate, gubernatorial) pickup for the Republicans since Inauguration Day 2005, and a consensus that the state is trending in the Republicans' favor. However, Democrats are aided by weak GOP prospects, the recent pickup of a House seat in this state, and the resurgence of New Orleans. At least one House seat could see a flip, and the most vigorous primary challenge in America looms in another.

District 1 (S-Factor 17.5 GOP): This is my paternal grandmother's district, situated in the New Orleans suburbs surrounding Lake Pontchartrain and part of the city itself. Bobby Jindal vacated this seat to become governor, and his replacement likewise is a Republican himself, Steve Scalise, who had just been sworn in to his State Senate seat before Jindal left Washington for Baton Rouge. The Democrats are fielding technology executive Jim Harlan (who has poured half a million dollars into his efforts) and former assistant U.S. Air Force Inspector General Vinny Mendoza, but Scalise should be more than safe for the long run. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 27.8 DEM): This district, based in much of heavily Democratic New Orleans and some of its suburbs, is not going to -- in any way, shape or form -- flip to anything other than Democrat, but it is competitive for a reason. Incumbent William Jefferson is dogged by ethics controversies including an FBI raid which turned up thousands of dollars in Jefferson's freezer. Now stripped of his committee assignments, Jefferson is in the fight of his political career. His opponents include New Orleans City Councilman James Carter, former New Orleans Intergovernmental Relations Director Kenya Smith, New Orleans School Board Member Jimmy Fahrenholtz, former TV newscaster Helena Moreno, State Representative Cedric Richmond, former State Representative Troy "C" Carter, and Jefferson Parish Councilman Byron Lee. Attorney Anh Cao is the only Republican who filed for this seat. Prediction: Tossup Jefferson, Solid DEM afterwards.

District 3 (S-Factor 4.5 GOP): While this southeastern and south central Louisiana district (including such cities as New Iberia and Chalmette) leans Republican, it is absolutely not out of reach for a Democrat, such as Charlie Melancon, who first came here on a squeaker in 2004 and faced a competitive race in 2006. This time, Melancon is home free. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 6.3 GOP): Jim McCrery's retirement from this conservative-leaning northwest Louisiana district dominated by metropolitan Shreveport has thrown this district into play. Three Republicans have filed to run: trucking company executive Chris Gorman, former local chamber of commerce boss Jeff Thompson, and former coroner John Fleming. The Democrats are pinning their hopes on Caddo District Attorney Paul Carmouche, who has been competitive with each of the three Republican candidates. Attorneys Willie Banks and John Milkovich, along with 2006 candidate Artis Cash are also running on the Dem side. Prediction: Tossup.

District 5 (S-Factor 9.0 GOP): Monroe, Alexandria and northeastern Louisiana dominate the landscape in this conservative district, which has been represented by former Democrat-turned-Republican Rodney Alexander since 2002. Conservative activist Andrew Clack is the only challenger to face Alexander, albeit a very minor one. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 6.3 GOP): Richard Baker left Congress recently to take a private sector position as President of the Managed Funds Association, throwing this Baton Rouge-centric seat into a competitive tussel that resulted in a takeover by Democrat and State Representative Don Cazayoux. The Republicans fielded a controversial candidate in newspaper publisher and former State Representative Woody Jenkins, which hurt GOP prospects for this seat. Following the loss of this seat, Republicans are not taking any chances this time: the new GOP candidate for the general election is the far more electable State Senator Bill Cassidy. Michael Jackson, an African-American State Representative who lost to Cazayoux in the special election primary, is running as an independent and could steal potential voters who would otherwise normally go for Cazayoux, making Cassidy a potential GOP pickup prospect. Prediction: Tossup.

District 7 (S-Factor 7.0 GOP): Acadiana is the dominant focus of this southwestern Louisiana district which includes Lafayette and Lake Charles. Incumbent Charles Boustany has held this seat since 2004, yet a potential Democrat dark horse bid has emerged in State Senator Don Cravins Jr., but there has yet to be fireworks in this race as Cravins filed just as filing closed earlier this month. Prediction: Solid GOP.

Next stop: Wisconsin.