The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XIX: Wisconsin

Last time, it was across the Sabine River in Louisiana, where Republican prospects recently appeared to be better in comparison to the national party, yet still an uphill climb of sorts due to its Democratic history. This time, the focus shifts from Sportsman's Paradise to America's Dairyland...

WISCONSIN

The Badger State was discovered in 1634 by French explorer Jean Nicolet, whose trip revolved around the purpose of finding a passage to the Orient. Originally settled for over a century by French fur traders, the territory of Wisconsin fell into British hands in 1763 and eventually American hands in 1783, though the British maintained control of the territory until the War of 1812. On May 29, 1848, Wisconsin became the 30th state in the Union.

Economically, Wisconsin is seen as a major agricultural state; the state only trails California in dairy production, but is the leading American producer of cheese. Other crops grown in the state include cranberries, potatoes, cranberries, and sweet corn. Various food brands emerge from Wisconsin's food processing factories and breweries, from Oscar Mayer wieners to Miller beer, and health care constitutes a major sector of the economy in Milwaukee, the state's largest city.

More paper products are produced in Wisconsin than in any other state, and various machinery and transportation manufacturers, including Johnson Controls and Harley-Davidson, also constitute major operations here as well. Of particular note is S. C. Johnson & Son, a Racine-based domestic chemicals producer (Windex, Ziploc, Raid, Scrubbing Bubbles) with revenues of $7.5 billion that is family owned-and-operated. Tourism is a large segment of the Wisconsin economy, with 90 attractions in the Wisconsin Dells area and other destinations such as the House on the Rock. Famed Wisconsinites include actor Gene Wilder, architect Frank Lloyd Wright, Green Bay Packers founder Curly Lambeau, conservative activist Paul Weyrich, poker star Phil Hellmuth, comedian Chris Farley, and the showboating pianist Liberace, among many others.

Politically, Wisconsin is a swing state. Wisconsinites have voted Democrat since 1988, with George W. Bush losing the state by close margins both times. A small schoolhouse in the town of Ripon hosted the first meeting of what eventually became the Republican Party. A controversial claim to fame politically was Sen. Joe McCarthy, whose controversial anti-Communist crusade in the early 1950s set a new standard in political character assassination. Once again, Wisconsin is up for grabs, but with no Senate race and no gubernatorial race until 2010, the focus on Wisconsin outside of the presidential race (where Barack Obama currently holds a 10 percent lead) will be on a competitive House seat Republicans lost last time and are now trying to take back.

NOTE: The primary is on September 9, 2008. Predictions could change based on various circumstances.

District 1 (S-Factor 1.8 GOP): Wisconsin's southeast corner dominates the district. It is normally a competitive district, covering Milwaukee's southern suburbs, and stretching from Janesville to Kenosha. Paul Ryan, the ranking member of the House Budget Committee, has managed to win by comfortable margins, usually 2-to-1. Democrats argue that the seat was not waged competitively in the past since Ryan took office, and are hoping for a more vigorous challenge this time. Regardless of the Dem nominee however (and there are four, led by chemical engineer Marge Krupp along with teacher Paulette Garin, 2006 candidate Mike Hebert, and college administrator John Mogk plus libertarian businessman Joseph Kexel), it's hard to imagine Ryan facing a tough race at this point even with his party facing a meltdown. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 13.3 DEM): Normally, young voters hardly turn out for a congressional election. But that is not the case in this district, home to the capital city of Madison and the University of Wisconsin. Tammy Baldwin is also a significant figure in Congress, as the only openly lesbian member of the House (and also the first such non-incumbent to be elected as such). The Republicans have only one candidate thus far in teacher Peter Theron. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 3.0 DEM): Another fairly competitive, Democratic-leaning district abounds here in the La Crosse and Eau Claire areas. The incumbent, Ron Kind, is not in any sorts of trouble, however. Republicans are fielding homebuilder Paul Stark, who has made a trip to the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) recently in a bold move to challenge Kind on energy legislation. No fireworks have been set off yet, though. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 20.3 DEM): Historically a Democratic stronghold, Milwaukee dominates Wisconsin's most liberal district. The first African-American member of Congress from this state, Gwen Moore, was first elected in 2004 to replace longtime incumbent Jerry Kleczka. No Republicans have filed to run here, which is not surprising. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 12.0 GOP): The most Republican, and most affluent district in the state is based in the affluent Milwaukee suburbs north and west of the city. Its incumbent is a very notable one in 15-term former Science and Judiciary committee chair Jim Sensenbrenner. While there are many historically -- and strongly -- GOP suburban districts where Democrats have been fielding prolific fundraisers, this is not one of them. In fact, no Democrat has even filed for this seat. College professor Jim Burkee is the only major-party challenger, albeit a relatively minor one. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 4.8 GOP): East Central Wisconsin, including such towns as Sheboygan and Fond du Lac, have been the focal point of longtime centrist incumbent Tom Petri. Democrats are fielding two candidates: dairy marketer Roger Kittelson and Mark Wollum. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 2.0 DEM): Another fairly competitive abounds here as well in Wausau, Superior and northwest Wisconsin. The incumbent is a very notable one here: 19-term House Appropriations Committee chair Dave Obey. Farmer Dan Mielke is challenging Obey. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 3.5 GOP): Normally, if you are a Democrat victorious in a Republican-leaning district (this district is home to Green Bay and the state's northeastern areas, by the way), you expect to learn how to eat solid foods (in other words, keep a low profile, and build your credentials). Successful allergist Steve Kagen got too hot too quick early on, thanks to claims of ill-humored remarks towards President Bush, his wife and Karl Rove, and reports of FDA warnings in which his allergy clinics were alleged to have sold allergy shots without a valid license. These sorts of not-so-newsworthy punching bags have now led up to Round 2 of the war with the man Kagen beat in 2006, former Wisconsin State Assembly Speaker John Gard. The race is already competitive: Kagen leads with $1.3 million to Gard's $800K+, but a Gard poll shows the Republican trailing by four points -- within the margin of error. Prediction: Tossup.

Next stop: Mississippi.