The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXIII: Washington

Just last night, the Olympics in Beijing came to a close. With the competition now over, the focus shifts back to the political arena, starting with the Democrats' convention in Denver where Barack Obama will make history as the first major-party African-American nominee for the Oval Office. At the same time, the Nifty Fifty resumes and heads into the home stretch with the election fast approaching.

At last check, Texas marked the spot as the Lone Star State presented a handful of potential contests. Now, the Bullet Train to November (this is now an official slogan) is roaring once again, heading to a state that appears presidential in name, but serves as the hub of a major American region...

WASHINGTON

Named after George Washington, our first President, and the most northwestern of the contiguous 48 states, Washington is a tale of two states split by the Cascade Range. West of the Cascades, it is largely forested with an oceanic climate, largely urban (dominated by the Seattle metropolitan area) and densely populated. East of the range, it is more rural with a mostly dry climate, and contains some arid deserts though it does have its share of forests. Originally populated by unique clusters of Native Americans (known for their totem poles), Washington was eventually settled by various British, Spanish and American explorers and became the 42nd state of the Union on November 11, 1889.

Washington's economy is the 14th largest in terms of gross state product as of 2005, headlined by aircraft manufacturer Boeing and software developer Microsoft, along with tourism, mining, and wood products. Not to mention the fact that Starbucks coffee, Costco warehouse clubs, and Nordstrom department stores are all based in the state as well. But don't forget agriculture: since the 1920s, Washington has been America's leading apple producer, and holds the same title for red raspberries and hops (which are used in beer brewing and are derived from cannabis), among other crops. The state's tax system is regressive: the top 1 percent pay only 3.2% taxes; the bottom fifth a staggering 17.6%. And the world's second wealthiest man, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates ($59.2 billion) is from this state. Other notables who have laid claim to this state include his fellow co-founder Paul Allen, Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos, Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, conservative commentator Glenn Beck, television news pioneer Edward R. Murrow, pioneering rock guitarist Jimi Hendrix, smooth jazz musician Kenny G, Nirvana frontman Kurt Cobain, Soundgarden/Audioslave frontman Chris Cornell, Scary Movie actress Anna Faris, European travel expert Rick Steves, and comedic science educator Bill Nye (That's right, Bill Nye the Science Guy was syndicated on PBS from Seattle's KCTS, and I deeply recall watching his show back in the day).

Politically, the state tends to be moderately liberal, with Democrats holding two-thirds of the state's congressional delegation, the Governor's mansion, both Senate seats, and majorities in both chambers of the Washington State Legislature. All three of the state's major statewide positions, Governor and U.S. Senate (which of course is two seats), are held by women: Governor Christine Gregoire, and Senators Maria Cantwell and Patty Murray. A very close Governor's race did ensue in 2004, when Dino Rossi was barely ahead of Gregoire, albeit by a miniscule 261 votes. After two recounts were performed, Gregoire was elected Governor. This bitter fight will see the two battle again in 2008, along with a hotly contested congressional race in suburban Seattle, where Republicans once dominated the congressional delegation in 1994, and quickly squandered it leaving only one elephant in the Seattle metropolitan area.

District 1 (S-Factor 7.8 DEM): When former Congressman Jay Inslee (1993-1995 from Central Washington's 4th District) decided to return to Congress in 1998, this district situated in the northern Seattle suburbs around Puget Sound (Edmonds, Kirkland and Bainbridge Island) was largely a swing district. Now, Inslee, having won by increasingly larger margins, represents a more Democratic district going up against former Issaquah School Board President Larry Ishmael. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 3.0 DEM): This fairly competitive district sits at the top of Western Washington (Bellingham, Everett and the San Juan Islands) and has been represented by Rick Larsen since 2000, winning by close margins in his first two races and by more comfortable margins in 2004 and 2006. The Republicans are fielding former Snohomish County Sheriff Rick Bart, but fundraising has been lagging sharply: Bart has raised only around $10K compared to Larsen's $1.07 million. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 0.5 DEM): Meanwhile, the southern end of the moderately liberal western portion of the state takes in the state's suburbs of Portland, Oregon (including Vancouver) as well as the area around the state capital of Olympia. Brian Baird has held the district since 1998 and should have no trouble dispatching airline pilot Michael Delavar. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 12.5 GOP): Of the six Republican freshmen from the Evergreen State in 1994's historic class, only Doc Hastings remains of this group. While he has faced scrutiny in recent years due to his role in the controversy surrounding former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, his district is the state's most conservative, taking in the Yakima, Wenatchee and Pasco areas of central Washington, and he should be in no trouble against Democrat George Fearing. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 7.3 GOP): The 1994 elections were symbolic in this state for Washington Republicans, but no victory was more resounding than the narrow defeat of Speaker Tom Foley by George Nethercutt in this Eastern Washington dominated by Spokane and Walla Walla. After Nethercutt bolted to run for the U.S. Senate in 2004, State Representative Cathy McMorris stepped in. Now going by the name Cathy McMorris Rodgers, she is now a favorite for re-election against Mark Mays, a psychologist and attorney by trade. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 5.8 DEM): Tacoma and the Olympic Peninsula (Port Angeles) dominate the longtime domain of 16-term Democrat Norm Dicks. While it is somewhat competitive on paper, third-time Republican candidate Doug Cloud still can't seem to scratch the surface in what is largely a working-class district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 7 (S-Factor 29.3 DEM): While most of the Seattle districts are moderately competitive in nature, this district -- situated in the city of Seattle itself -- is overwhelmingly Democrat. Incumbent Jim McDermott took in 79 percent of the vote last time against internet marketer Steve Beren, who is running again. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 2.8 DEM): This is a competitive district that voted for Democrats at the presidential level in 2000 and 2004, and successively elected Republican former King County Sheriff Dave Reichert in 2004 and 2006, last time by a narrow margin against former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner. Burner, who helped create "A Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq" (a detailed Iraq War platform crafted and sponsored by several anti-war Democrat candidates), has outraised Reichert with $2.29 million to the latter's $1.62 million. A recent poll, however shows Reichert with a slight lead over Burner. This is a race worth watching in the suburbs (Bellevue, Mercer Island) and rural areas east of Seattle and Tacoma. Prediction: Tossup.

District 9 (S-Factor 5.8 DEM): This district stretches from such Seattle area suburbs as Renton and Federal Way clockwise to Olympia, and of the four Democratic seats that went Republican in 1994 but flipped back eventually, this was the first of the four: Adam Smith defeated religious conservative Randy Tate in 1996, and the 1st, 3rd (both in 1998) and 2nd (2000) districts followed. Smith has since turned what is a fairly competitive district on paper into a safe seat against businessman and software engineer James Postma. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Missouri.