The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XX: Mississippi

In spite of sheer tiredness, a tropical storm that barely went through my home base, and whatever else may come, this bullet train to November has no signs of stopping. Now the Nifty Fifty shifts from a state known for its cheese to a state worth its weight in magnolias (its state symbol)...

MISSISSIPPI

Named for the namesake river that borders the state to the west, Mississippi enjoyed the company of Native Americans (several of whom have cities here named in their honor such as Natchez), and also French, Spanish and British explorers. The state was one of several to secede to the Confederacy during the Civil War, and later became a hotbed of activity during the Civil Rights Movement as the state became known for its reactionary nature. Today, Mississippi has the largest percentage of African-Americans, at 37 percent of the population, and casino gambling along the Mississippi River and on the Mississippi Gulf Coast have given the state's economy a shot in the arm. Music plays an integral part of Mississippi culture, from its post-Reconstruction problems that eventually led to the emergence of blues music (notable artists from here include Bo Diddley and B.B. King), to bands and musicians with roots in the state such as Elvis Presley, Jimmy Buffett, Faith Hill, and 3 Doors Down. Coca-Cola was first bottled here, and Barq's root beer emerged from this state. Legends of the gridiron, including Brett Favre, Archie Manning, Jerry Rice, and Walter Payton, as well as recent Pro Bowlers Steve McNair and Deuce McAllister, can trace their early days to Mississippi, and the state gave us Cool Papa Bell, considered the fastest player ever to play baseball. Talk show host Oprah Winfrey, actress Sela Ward, Muppets creator Jim Henson, playwright Tennessee Williams, and actor James Earl Jones ("This is CNN") also have roots in Mississippi. Author John Grisham even served in the Mississippi House of Representatives; his more famous career as a bestselling novelist of legal drama started during his political career.

The state is definitive of a social conservative hotbed: sales of sex toys are prohibited here, and voters supported a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage with an astonishing 86% of the vote. But such issues are expected to take a back seat to domestic issues at home in the state. The economy has become the number one issue of American voters, and it is expected to be an important issue in Mississippi given the state's unwelcome reputation as the poorest state in America despite having the lowest living costs and one of the highest charitable contribution rates among the 50 states. Health care could also be a key issue given the current health care crisis nationally and Mississippi's unhealthy ranking as the most obese state.

Though many of its local and state offices are held by Democrats, Mississippi last went blue in 1976 for fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter, and Democrats will look towards the state's large African-American population to deliver the state for Barack Obama this year, even though John McCain still leads in polls here. A rare instance also exists here this year in that both Senate seats are up for grabs, one of which (the Class 1 seat Trent Lott left behind) is being targeted by Democrats, while the other seat (the Class 2 seat currently held by Thad Cochran) is safe for the incumbent. The congressional races here will be focused on one seat that switched parties in a symbolic special election earlier this year.

District 1 (S-Factor 9.5 GOP): This race was the ultimate backbreaker for Republicans this year, as Roger Wicker's ascendancy to the U.S. Senate (and a competitive race there with former Governor Ronnie Musgrove) combined with a divided GOP base in this northeastern Mississippi district (Tupelo, Southaven) benefitted realtor, nursing home operator and Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers in a district that George W. Bush won convincingly. A conservative Democrat, Childers tends to be conservative on social issues but takes a more populist meat-and-potatoes approach to economic issues. The GOP candidate, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis is challenging Childers again, this time with Childers holding the power of incumbency. While Davis leads in individual donations ($1 million to Childers' $406K), and Davis has raised $1.3 million to Childers' $1.2 million, Childers has three times as much cash on hand, and could benefit from a poor GOP climate. Prediction: Tossup.

District 2 (S-Factor 10.0 DEM): This majority-black district is situated in Western Mississippi (Greenwood, Vicksburg) and the capital city of Jackson. House Homeland Security Committee chairman Bennie Thompson has held the seat since 1993, when Mike Espy left the seat behind to become Secretary of Agriculture in the Clinton Administration. Republicans are fielding teacher Richard Cook. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 13.5 GOP): Chip Pickering is calling it a career after 12 years to service to his eastern (Meridian, Starkville) and southwestern Mississippi (Natchez) district that cuts into the Jackson suburbs. The GOP is expected to hold this seat with former Rankin County GOP chair and attorney Gregg Harper, who should have no trouble defeating cattle broker and Pickens Town Alderman Joel Gill. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 15.3 GOP): While strongly conservative on paper, conservative Democrat Gene Taylor is the current standard bearer for this Southern Mississippi district which covers the Biloxi and Hattiesburg areas, and has won by convincing margins. Republicans will try again with libertarian Republican, National Guard officer and Methodist minister John McCay III. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Ohio.