The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXII: Texas

The Olympics have been keeping me away from this blog for quite some time. So far, Americans are neck-to-neck with China in the medal count, with China's count dominated by gold medals. Of course, the Olympics are not over yet, and many more medals will be awarded as time goes by.

Before the Olympics, the Nifty Fifty focused on Ohio, a state that has been widely regarded as a bellwether for the national political mood -- and the presidency. Now the trail shifts to a larger state, one very familiar to yours truly, a state that espouses the definition of "big" and proudly stands by its title as "The Lone Star State"...

TEXAS

NOTE: Because yours truly is a native of the Lone Star State, expect a very long musing here...

While it is considered part of the South, Texas is so large -- and diverse in many ways -- that Texas deserves to be considered a region to all its own. The state is at a crossroads between various geographical aspects of America -- with plains, deserts, forests, lakes, rivers and beaches all dispersed throughout the state alongside various other geographical features. Six flags have flown over the state -- Spain's Crown of Castile, France's Fleur-de-lis, Mexico, Texas (yes, it was once a country itself), the Confederacy, and the United States. If Texas were a country, it would be the seventh-largest producer of greenhouse gases in the world, and weather here is highly unpredictable, with a more arid climate in West Texas and humid subtropical weather along the Gulf of Mexico.

Ethnic and religious diversity is commonplace here, with nearly 36 percent of the state's population being of Hispanic descent, joined by a prosperous Asian-American community and a growing number of African-American college graduates. Texas is home to over 4.3 million Roman Catholics and around 400,000 Muslims, among other faith groups. Three quarters of Texans are located along the Texas Urban Triangle, bounded by Interstates 10, 35 and 45, and stretching from Houston to San Antonio to Dallas-Fort Worth.

Texas offers much meaning to the term "capital punishment"; over 400 executions have been performed here for the last 30 years. The state's economy is diverse, with agriculture (cotton, grapefruit), mining, banking, construction and energy (both traditional and renewable) industries amongst a wide array of business opportunities. ExxonMobil, AT&T, Kimberly-Clark, Blockbuster and Dell are just a sampling of numerous large corporations headquartered here, and Houston is home to NASA's Johnson Space Center, where Mission Control is located. Notable Texans, among many, include...

Actors Matthew McConaughey, and Tommy Lee Jones, actresses Eva Longoria Parker and Renée Zellweger, TV producer Aaron Spelling, South Park co-creator Matt Stone, directors Wes Anderson and Richard Linklater, comedian Bill Engvall, former pro wrestler Stone Cold Steve Austin, rock and roll pioneer Buddy Holly, musicians Robert Earl Keen, Kenny Rogers, Stevie Ray Vaughan, Beyoncé Knowles, and Don Henley, Bugs Bunny creator Tex Avery, seven-time Tour de France winner Lance Armstrong, champion boxer George Foreman, golfer Babe Didrikson Zaharias, Dell founder Michael Dell, legendary heart surgeons Michael DeBakey and Denton Cooley, oil field firefighter Red Adair, billionaire Howard Hughes, 1992 presidential candidate Ross Perot, 2006 gubernatorial candidate and self-proclaimed "Texas Jewboy" Kinky Friedman, televangelist Joel Osteen, and the rancher known sometimes as the 'father of the Texas Panhandle', Charles Goodnight. Not to mention journalists by the likes of Walter Cronkite, Dan Rather, Bob Schieffer, Sam Donaldson, Jim Lehrer, and a wide array of local TV news legends.

(I know, there are many, and that's just a tiny fraction of the whole list...)

Now, the real stuff...

Marked by a conservative flavor on both sides of the aisle, Texas was once a part of the Democrats' Solid South. One notable Texas Democrat (among many) is former President Lyndon B. Johnson, who assumed the presidency following the tragic November 22, 1963 assassination of John F. Kennedy in Dallas. As the President who signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964, LBJ stated "We have lost the South for a generation". This statement came back to haunt Democrats as their century-old dominance was broken in 1978 with the election of Governor Bill Clements. Now, the Governor's Mansion, both U.S. Senators, most of its congressional delegation, and the Texas Legislature are in the hands of the GOP. Our current commander-in-chief, George W. Bush, was himself the Governor at the turn of the century.

Texas' strong Republican voting tendencies are mostly concentrated in West Texas and in most suburban areas of Dallas and Houston, while Democrats dominate in urban areas such as southern Dallas County, the capital city of Austin, and in heavily Hispanic areas such as the Rio Grande Valley. The playing field is rather different this year with no major-party Texan at the top of the ticket (that includes Ross Perot since he was a vigorous third-party candidate in 1992 and 1996, the latter year of which was Texas-less in both parties) for the first time in many years. Last time that situation came up (in 1976), Jimmy Carter took Texas en route to winning the presidency. Republicans are favored to win Texas once again, but a perceived lack of enthusiasm for John McCain amongst the state's conservative electorate could create an opening for Barack Obama. Democrats are also waging a dark horse bid against incumbent Senator John Cornyn, while the GOP is setting sights on two congressional seats lost in the last election as Dems turn to dark horses for more gains in the state's congressional delegation.

This rundown will be a big one...here we go...

*Districts 15, 21, 23, 25 and 28 are based on the previous districts in the 109th Congress. The 23rd District was declared unconstitutional and resulted in a number of districts being redrawn.

NOTE: The rundown has been slightly updated as of August 17, 2008 for clarification purposes.

District 1 (S-Factor 17.3 GOP): This district covers much of East Texas, including the Tyler, Longview and Lufkin areas, and has been served by Republican Louie Gohmert since his 2004 defeat of Max Sandlin. While this district had been in the hands of Democrats from the Civil War until recently, Gohmert will not be facing Democratic opposition this year. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 11.8 GOP): Since Ted Poe's election to Congress in 2004 to this district based in the Democrat-leaning Beaumont area and heavily Republican northern and eastern suburbs of Houston (Baytown, Kingwood, Spring), he has become an outspoken advocate for border security, a crucial issue among voters in the 2008 election. The Democrats lost it in 2004, failed to capture it in 2006, and are not fielding anyone in 2008. And that's just the way it is (Poe's trademark closing). Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 16.8 GOP): Sam Johnson is one of the oldest members of Congress, coming from a district that covers northeastern Dallas and its fast-growing northern suburbs, including Plano, Garland, Richardson and McKinney. Democrats are fielding attorney Tom Daley. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 16.8 GOP): This is another heavily Republican North Texas (Frisco, Rockwall, Sherman, Paris, Texarkana) district currently held by a senior incumbent in 85-year-old Ralph Hall. 2006 nominee Glenn Melancon will try again. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 15.0 GOP): Eastern Dallas County, including Mesquite and part of Dallas, is part of a sprawling East Texas district that juts out southeast to Athens, Palestine and Jacksonville. The fiscally conservative incumbent, Jeb Hensarling is a safe bet for re-election. After all, he is only facing a Libertarian and a lesser-known independent. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 14.8 GOP): House Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Joe Barton has been safe in his sprawling Arlington-to-Crockett congressional seat which he has held in several incarnations since 1984 upon succeeding eventual U.S. Senator Phil Gramm. The Democrat in this race is educator Ludwig Otto. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 15.3 GOP): This district has a Republican history to it, electing eventual President George H.W. Bush and one-time House Ways and Means Committee chair Bill Archer to serve historically Republican west Houston, the Memorial Villages, and several western and northwestern suburban areas. And John Culberson has consistently been a safe bet, often winning by comfortable margins or better. The Democrats are looking to even the playing field, waging a competitive race here this year with wind energy executive Michael Skelly, who has outraised Culberson and has earned distinction as an "Emerging Candidate" by the D-Trip. Already, his ads have begun airing on local stations. Both men have their chops: Skelly's top-shelf credentials as a successful businessman and Culberson's breakthrough online presence during the GOP energy protest on Capitol Hill. Why is this race not in a more competitive situation? Culberson's victories have been aided by an army of grassroots supporters, which enabled him to defeat a more well-funded Republican in the 2000 primary, and polling shows Culberson ahead by double-digit margins. Unlike past cycles, this will be both a slugfest and a barn-burner. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 8 (S-Factor 19.3 GOP): This district stretches from The Woodlands and all of Monco (Montgomery County) eastward to Orange and all points north to Lake Livingston and Jasper. Kevin Brady is in very safe territory against non-profit executive Kent Hargett. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 9 (S-Factor 21.0 DEM): This heavily Democratic district covers southwest Houston and its South Side, as well as two eastern shavings of Fort Bend (northern Missouri City and Mission Bend) carried over from the pre-redistricting 25th. Al Green was first elected here in 2004 by knocking off the redistricted Chris Bell, whose ethics complaint related to the redistricting triggered the downfall of Tom DeLay and is now running for the State Senate after an impressive gubernatorial performance in 2006. Republicans won't be fielding anyone this time around. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 10 (S-Factor 12.8 GOP): This is another dark horse battle for Democrats. Incumbent Michael McCaul faced an underfunded Democrat and received 55% of the vote despite GOP leanings that normally would be higher in this district. The Democrats are fielding a competitive candidate in attorney and former TV courtroom judge Larry Joe Doherty (Texas Justice). While Doherty's fundraising is competitive, so is McCaul's, and it will be quite a struggle for any challenger to campaign in a gerrymandered district stretching from north Austin through rural areas situated along U.S. Highway 290 (Bastrop-Brenham-Hempstead) to northwest Harris County. In all honesty, this is a very difficult race to campaign in especially in a time when gas prices are beyond our reach. One thing does make the race competitive: McCaul's lead over Doherty in a recent poll is only 5.4 percent. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 11 (S-Factor 25.0 GOP): There will be no Democrat running in this very, very red seat that covers the core of Dubya's home base, situated in Midland, Odessa, San Angelo, Brownwood, and Burnet County. After all, Mike Conaway is representing Bush 43's strongest district from 2004. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 12 (S-Factor 14.0 GOP): Kay Granger is heavily favored to win another term in this district situated in western Fort Worth and several areas west of the city. Realtor Tracey Smith is the Democrat in this race. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 13 (S-Factor 24.3 GOP): Another strongly GOP seat here, this time based in Amarillo and Wichita Falls. The incumbent, Mac Thornberry has often won by comfortable margins since defeating Bill Sarpalius in the 1994 Republican Revolution. 2006 nominee and former intelligence officer Roger Waun is running again. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 14 (S-Factor 14.0 GOP): Ron Paul is definitive of a vastly underrated breed within the Republican conference: the libertarian Republican. Despite numerous primary and general challenges of notable vigor, Paul has achieved a cult following over the years and made headlines with his insurgent presidential campaign this year. His pioneering race has led to an army of libertarian Republican candidates in this year's election (as well as an ongoing national campaign for his political views), and Paul himself will win another term without a Democrat on the ballot this year. The district is situated in coastal Texas stretching from Victoria to Galveston, taking in Bay City, Lake Jackson, and several Houston suburbs along the way. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 15 (S-Factor 1.0 GOP*): This is a different district from what the S-Factor suggests due to the large Hispanic turnout for Bush in 2004 as well as the fact that this district was redrawn as a result of the fallout in the 23rd (see below). The result: Rubén Hinojosa now represents an elongated district stretching from Harlingen and McAllen in the south to Alice and Beeville further north. 2006 candidate Eddie Zamora is running again. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 16 (S-Factor 9.3 DEM): Silvestre Reyes, the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, has represented this El Paso-centric district since he was first elected in 1996. No Republican is running. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 17 (S-Factor 17.3 GOP): The irony about the home district of George W. Bush, stretching from Cleburne (south of Fort Worth) to Waco and Bryan-College Station, is that the representative is longstanding Democrat Chet Edwards. By crafting a centrist image, Edwards has managed to consistently win re-election to this district. Video production executive Rob Curnock is the Republican candidate. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 18 (S-Factor 23.5 DEM): This heavily Democratic seat, situated in inner city Houston, has historically sent African-American Democrats (and notable ones) to Congress since the 1972 election that sent to Congress Barbara Jordan, the role model of incumbent Sheila Jackson-Lee. Republicans will be fielding accountant John Faulk in what is a very difficult district for elephants. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 19 (S-Factor 24.8 GOP): Randy Neugebauer has been the standard-bearer for this Lubbock-to-Abilene district which almost looks as if it were split in two (Yes, redistricting made Texas' districts worse than Massachusetts' sorry excuses for what counts as congressional districts). This district shows no signs of shifting anytime soon, and public affairs consultant Dwight Fullingim will have an uphill battle here. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 20 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): San Antonio has long been the home base of the Gonzalez family for 48 years, starting with Henry Gonzalez in 1961 and continuing with his son, Charlie Gonzalez in 1999. The Republican candidate is Robert Litoff. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 21 (S-Factor 12.3 GOP*): This district connects north San Antonio to Austin via several areas in the Texas Hill Country. Longtime incumbent Lamar Smith, the ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee, will not be facing a Democrat this year. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 22 (S-Factor 14.3 GOP): None of the districts that turned blue in 2006 had a stranger reason to switch than this one as former congressman Tom DeLay's last-minute foibles ending up forcing Republicans to run a write-in bid for this seat, which enabled the Democrat, former Congressman Nick Lampson to pull off a 10-point victory. This year, it was no surprise that ten Republicans filed to run for this seat, and I had the privilege to campaign with one of them, former Sugar Land mayor Dean Hrbacek who finished fifth in the primary. The eventual primary winner, Pete Olson, is the former Chief of Staff to U.S. Senator John Cornyn. Olson finished second in Round 1, but went on to convincingly defeat former Congresswoman Shelley Sekula Gibbs with 69 percent of the vote in the runoff. Lampson has compiled a record that hardly reflects of his previous stint in a Beaumont-to-Galveston district, but Olson will be a stiff challenger to Lampson in a district stretching across the southern suburbs of Houston from Sugar Land and Rosenberg all the way to Pearland, Pasadena and the Clear Lake area. This is the marquee congressional race in America. Prediction: Tossup.

District 23 (S-Factor 12.8 GOP*): This district, stretching from just east of El Paso to Big Bend National Park, stretching all the way to western Bexar County and south San Antonio, was drawn up as the result of a ruling that struck down the previous 23rd which was seen as diluting Hispanic voting power. As a result, then-incumbent Henry Bonilla was forced into a more competitive situation, leading to his defeat by former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez. The Republicans had touted this seat as a significant pickup opportunity, but Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson will have to catch up in the fundraising department; Rodriguez leads Larson in total funds raised: $1.88 million to Larson's $535K. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 24 (S-Factor 15.0 GOP): This district is situated in the middle of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, taking in several suburbs including Carrollton, Irving, Southlake, Euless, Grand Prairie, Duncanville and Cedar Hill along the way. Incumbent Kenny Marchant will be favored to win another term against Democrat Tom Love. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 25 (S-Factor 13.8 DEM*): The S-Factor has also been rendered irrelevant here as well, as the district no longer resembles the "fajita strip" it was designed to look like. Instead, the district takes in Austin and rural areas to its south (San Marcos, Gonzales and La Grange). While it may look more competitive on paper, incumbent Lloyd Doggett is in no particular danger against environmental contractor George Morovich. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 26 (S-Factor 11.8 GOP): This Denton County-based seat, which also takes in Gainesville (north of Denton County) to its north and part of Fort Worth to its south, was once represented by former House Majority Leader Dick Armey. The incumbent, Michael Burgess continues this trend and will be heavily favored for another term against former congressional aide Ken Leach. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 27 (S-Factor 1.0 GOP): The district's Republican performance in 2004 belies the fact that the Corpus Christi/Brownsville district is heavily Hispanic and tends toward Democrats. The longtime incumbent, Solomon Ortiz, dean of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus will be favored for another term against his 2006 opponent, former Ingleside Mayor Willie Vaden. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 28 (S-Factor 0.8 DEM*): This is a different district from what the S-Factor suggests, but it still tends to vote for Democrats and is still situated in Laredo and stretching northward to the San Antonio suburbs. Incumbent Henry Cuellar, considered one of the more conservative Democrats, will be favored for another term against health care consultant Jim Fish. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 29 (S-Factor 7.8 DEM): While the 29th District was drawn to be a heavily Hispanic district situated in several northern and eastern areas of Houston (as well as some surrounding suburbs), its representative from the start has been Anglo Democrat Gene Green. However, Green has never faced strong opposition from either side of the aisle, and should easily win another term over repeat challenger Eric Story. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 30 (S-Factor 26.0 DEM): This is the most strongly Democratic district in Texas, covering inner city Dallas and most of its southern suburbs. The district's only representative since being created following the 1990 Census, Eddie Bernice Johnson, is strongly favored over IT manager Fred Wood. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 31 (S-Factor 16.3 GOP): This strongly conservative district, represented by John Carter since its creation in the 2000 Census, stretches from Stephenville in north central Texas to suburban Austin (including Round Rock) and also covers Temple, Killeen and the Fort Hood military base. Carter's Democratic opponent will be radio producer Brian Ruiz. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 32 (S-Factor 10.3 GOP): North Dallas and its surrounding suburbs, including the Park Cities (Highland Park and University Park) and largely Hispanic areas such as south Irving and Cockrell Hill make up the composition of this largely GOP district, where Pete Sessions has never broken 60% since the current district was created in the controversial 2003 redistricting, but has managed to post double-digit victories against fellow incumbent Martin Frost in 2004 and in 2006 against Dallas lawyer Will Pryor, whose cousin happens to be Arkansas Senator Mark Pryor. This time, the Democrats are fielding attorney Eric Roberson whose fundraising has been lightweight (a paltry $68K compared to Sessions' $1.28 million). Prediction: Solid GOP.

Next stop: Washington (the state).