The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXIV: Missouri

The Bullet Train to November is on the move once again, and this time it shifts from a state marked by a mountain range that creates two separate political profiles to another that defines the spirit of America, one that lives up to its title as the Show-Me State...

MISSOURI

It is a state where urban and rural go together, where the Midwest meets the South, and where St. Louis marks the end of the East and Kansas City the start of the West. Once part of the Louisiana Purchase, the 1821 Missouri Compromise led to the admittance into the Union of Missouri as a "slave state". Missouri also served as a prominent point of interest for settlers headed out west to fulfill their Manifest Destiny. Like neighboring Tennessee, it shares the boundaries of eight states: Iowa to its north, Illinois to the east, Kentucky and Tennessee to its southeast, Arkansas to the south, Oklahoma to its southeast, Kansas to the west, and Nebraska at its northwestern corner.

Economically, Missouri sits right in the middle of the food chain on per capita personal income with a ranking of 26th and $32,707. The agricultural sector includes beef, soybeans, dairy and eggs, while its industrial sector includes chemicals, beer (Budweiser is produced here), transportation equipment, and light manufacturing, and two Federal Reserve Banks call Missouri home in Kansas City and St. Louis. Among the state's past and present notables: animators Walt Disney (Mickey Mouse) and Friz Freleng (Looney Tunes), actor Brad Pitt, composer Burt Bacharach, musicians Sheryl Crow, Scott Joplin, Michael McDonald and Sara Evans, rock and roll pioneer Chuck Berry, rapper Nelly, Baseball Hall of Famer Yogi Berra, and conservative commentator Rush Limbaugh.

No state defines the meaning of bellwether more than Missouri. Since 1904, it has voted in all but one case for the eventual President, with the lone exception being Adlai Stevenson's victory in 1956 against incumbent Dwight Eisenhower, who won another term nationally. Following the Civil War, it was a stronghold for conservative Democrats who at the time dominated the party, with Harry Truman being its most notable Democrat. As the GOP became more conservative as a whole, Republicans began to make gains, yet the state is not entirely safe for either party. The college town of Columbia, along with Kansas City and St. Louis provide Democrats with their base in the state, while many rural areas, such as those in the southwest (Springfield, Joplin and the tourist destination of Branson) and southeast (Cape Girardeau, Poplar Bluff) favor Republicans. And once again, Missouri will be up for grabs, with the Governor's Mansion in need of a new tenant, a House seat open because of the gubernatorial race, and another House race that has garnered attention.

District 1 (S-Factor 25.3 DEM): Lacy Clay represents Missouri's most Democratic district, situated in northern St. Louis and northern St. Louis County (Florissant, Maryland Heights). Clay will only face Libertarian nominee Robb Cunningham. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): This district, situated in the northern and western suburbs of St. Louis including Kirkwood, Chesterfield and St. Charles, has been represented by Todd Akin since 2000 when he succeeded then-gubernatorial candidate, eventual U.S. Senator, and 2006 Dem wave victim Jim Talent. His Democratic opponent will be former St. Louis School Board Member Bill Haas. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 7.8 DEM): Russ Carnahan, son of the late Governor Mel Carnahan, was first elected in 2004 by a nearly eight-point margin to succeed former House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt. Republicans are fielding mortgage broker Chris Sander in this district that encompasses southern St. Louis and some of its southern suburbs and rural areas. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 10.5 GOP): While a conservative district willing to vote Republican on paper, House Armed Services Committee Chair Ike Skelton has compiled a generally moderate-to-conservative Democrat record in his western Missouri district that includes suburbs of Kansas City and the capital city of Jefferson City. If Skelton retires, this will be a potential GOP pickup, but for now he is safe against businessman and Republican activist Jeff Parnell. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 12.0 DEM): When former Kansas City mayor Emanuel Cleaver first won this Kansas City-centric district in 2004, he won his seat with only 55 percent of the vote. However, Cleaver had an easier time in 2006 dispatching businessman Jacob Turk, who is once again the GOP nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 4.5 GOP): Since 2000, Sam Graves has represented a GOP-leaning district situated in northwestern Missouri, including north Kansas City, its northern and eastern suburbs, and the St. Joseph area. The Democrats have recruited a top-tier candidate in former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes. Already, Barnes has outraised Graves with $1.85 million and $962K cash on hand compared to $1.68 million and $936K for Graves. However, while a recent poll has shown Barnes gaining ground on Graves, the incumbent still leads by four points and holds a 20-point lead among independent voters. Graves is favored for now, but expect a very close race. Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 13.8 GOP): House Minority Whip Roy Blunt represents Missouri's most conservative district, situated in southwestern Missouri (Springfield, Joplin and Branson). Attorney Richard Monroe is the Democratic nominee. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 8 (S-Factor 10.5 GOP): Jo Ann Emerson represents a favorably Republican seat in southeastern Missouri (Cape Girardeau, Rolla and Poplar Bluff) and will be favored against Democrat Joe Allen. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 9 (S-Factor 6.0 GOP): Kenny Hulshof is the Republican nominee for Governor in 2008, leaving behind a Republican-leaning district situated in northeastern Missouri, including Kirksville, Hannibal, some St. Louis suburbs, and the college town of Columbia. Both parties had competitive primaries, with Republicans offering former State Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer and Democrats serving up State Representative Judy Baker. Baker has outraised Luetkemeyer, $535K to $467K, and barely leads in a recent Dem poll. However, the race currently favors Luetkemeyer for the moment, yet a Baker victory may not surprise anyone. Prediction: Leans GOP.

Next stop: Idaho.