The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXI: Ohio

Last time, it was a stroll along the state bearing the name of the Mississippi River. Now, the bullet train to November continues in a state that clearly represents America, one that calls itself "The Heart Of It All"...

OHIO

Admitted to the Union as the 17th State, and taking in transplants from most every other region in the country at the time, Ohio has given America eight presidents, and serves as a major economic bastion between the Northeast and Midwest. It was here in Ohio that the Wright Brothers (Orville and Wilbur) invented the airplane, hence the nickname "Birthplace of Aviation". Today, many items are produced and manufactured in the Buckeye State, including steel, processed foods, machines and their associated parts, and automobiles such as Jeeps. Agriculture plays a major role in the state's economy as a part of the Corn Belt, as does tourism with a wide array of recreational opportunities, historical sites, and a variety of landscapes, along with the Cedar Point and Kings Island amusement parks, its Amish community, and a medical tourism base in Cleveland. Sports is a common pastime in the state, with high school and college programs attracting enthusiastic fans and numerous national championships, the first openly all-professional team in the Cincinnati Red Stockings (founded in 1869), and the Pro Football Hall of Fame based in Canton, where the American Professional Football Association, forerunner to today's National Football League, was founded in 1920.

Ohio's contribution to politics in America can be attributed to its demographics. A mixture of urban, suburban and rural regions, combined with significant blue-collar and white-collar industries makes its 20 electoral votes very important to both parties. Only twice since 1892 has the winner of Ohio gone on to lose the presidential election as a whole. Northeastern Ohio (Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown) tends to vote for Democrats due to a significant union voter base, while northwestern Ohio (Toledo, Lima) tends to lean Republican, southwestern Ohio (Cincinnati, Dayton) favors the GOP, and southeastern Ohio's votes are dependent on the condition of the economy. This leaves a Republican-leaning central core in the Columbus area, with more Republicans in the suburbs and more Democrats in the capital city of Columbus itself. Until 2006, Republicans controlled many aspects of government here, including the Governor's Mansion and both Senate seats, even delivering George W. Bush his second term. However, a series of scandals surrounding former Governor Bob Taft, combined with a shaky economy in the state and the pickup of one House seat and the state's Class 1 Senate seat, have given Democrats a shot in the arm. While no gubernatorial or Senate races are taking place this year, a number of House seats have fallen into competitive territory that could shape the nature of the 111th Congress.

District 1 (S-Factor 0.3 GOP): The battle-tested Steve Chabot represents a competitive district situated in Cincinnati and some of its northern and western suburbs. Only twice has Chabot won by comfortable margins since first being elected in 1994, and this year will be no surprise as Democrats will try again with State House Minority Whip Steve Driehaus. The race is proving to be competitive, with polls showing either Chabot or Driehaus with the advantage. Fundraising is also a major factor with Chabot having raised $1.35 million and over $1.3 million in the bank, compared to Driehaus' $885K and $631K cash-on-hand. Another factor is present in the race due to the district's significant African-American population (27.5 percent) which could help Driehaus courtesy of Barack Obama. One Steve has the momentum and path to victory. The question is: which Steve? Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 13.0 GOP): Normally, this would be a safe district for the Republicans, stretching along the Ohio River from the Cincinnati suburbs to the Portsmouth area. After all, it is where Rob Portman served (and won by convincing margins) before entering the Bush Administration. However, the current representative, Jean Schmidt has ruffled some feathers within the local GOP establishment, and her relative weakness at the polls was exploited in a 2005 special election where Iraq War veteran and attorney Paul Hackett came close to a shocking upset. The 2006 candidate, physician Victoria Wulsin, had similar results against Schmidt and will be trying to knock off the incumbent once again. Wulsin has outraised Schmidt ($1.07 million to $855K), but Schmidt leads in cash on hand, albeit by a small margin ($393K to Wulsin's $378K). Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 2.8 GOP): The Dayton area and its nearby suburbs dominate this normally competitive seat, but former Dayton mayor Mike Turner has managed to fend off challenges from Democrats despite succeeding 23-year incumbent Tony Hall in 2003. Democrats targeted this seat in 2006 until its challenger dropped the ball and bailed out. The 2004 nominee, advertising executive and Democratic activist Jane Mitakides, is running again and an internal poll shows some favorability towards Mitakides' campaign. The cash coffers are a different story: Turner has nearly $1 million raised and close to $600K to hand, while Mitakides has raised $321K and has $130K cash on hand. While the rating could change on this race to a more competitive position, not enough evidence is present at this time to do so. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 13.3 GOP): When Mike Oxley exited Congress in 2006 after a long career that was marked by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, Jim Jordan stepped in to represent the voters of this rural northern Ohio district that stretches from Lima to Mansfield and all points in between. Given that the district is Ohio's most Republican, it is no surprise that Jordan will roll easily over union activist and steelworker Mike Carroll. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 9.8 GOP): Following the tragic death of Paul Gillmor in 2007, Bob Latta stepped in to represent this historically Republican Bowling Green- and Tiffin-centric district, just south of Toledo, that was once represented by his father Del Latta, from 1959 to 1989. While Latta faced 2006 candidate Robin Weirauch in the special election to replace Gillmor, a different Democrat will be challenging Latta in the general election in self-employed disc jockey George Mays. Latta will be heavily favored. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 0.8 DEM): This is a slightly competitive district on paper, but freshman incumbent Charlie Wilson, who serves an elongated district that stretches across the state's southeastern border from Athens and Marietta to just south of Youngstown, will not be facing a strong challenge. The Republican nominee is former Belmont County Sheriff Rich Stobbs. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 7 (S-Factor 5.8 GOP): This Republican-leaning district which cuts across south central Ohio (Springfield, Lancaster and suburban areas south of Columbus) is now open with longtime incumbent Dave Hobson calling it a career. State Senate Majority Whip Steve Austria will be favored to win over attorney Sharen Neuhardt and holds a more than 2-to-1 advantage in fundraising ($812K for Austria to Neuhardt's $363K), plus an even more proportional advantage in the bank ($361K compared to $108K for Neuhardt). Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 8 (S-Factor 12.3 GOP): This suburban Cincinnati and Dayton district is House Minority Leader John Boehner's district, and while most Republicans are facing long odds, Boehner is heavily favored to win another term over political organizer and Air Force veteran Nick von Stein. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 9 (S-Factor 9.0 DEM): This Toledo-to-Sandusky district situated on the Lake Erie shoreline should be piece of cake for longstanding incumbent Marcy Kaptur over steelworker Bradley Leavitt. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 10 (S-Factor 8.8 DEM): Much of western Cleveland and Cuyahoga County is situated in this district that 2008 presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich has served since 1996. While Kucinich faced a competitive primary due to Kucinich's focus on the presidential race, he should be favored over former State Representative Jim Trakas. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 11 (S-Factor 33.3 DEM): This staunchly Democratic district covers Cleveland's East Side and much of eastern Cuyahoga County, and Stephanie Tubbs Jones will be heavily favored for another term against engineer Thomas Pekarek. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 12 (S-Factor 0.5 GOP): While this appears to be a competitive district on paper, Pat Tiberi managed to fend off an insurgent challenge from former congressman Bob Shamansky in 2006. This time, Tiberi will face manufacturing executive David Robinson in this district situated in the wealthy Columbus suburbs (Dublin, Gahanna, Westerville) as well as the heavily African-American portion of the capital city itself. While Obama could be a factor here given the demographics, there have yet to be fireworks in this race. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 13 (S-Factor 7.0 DEM): Betty Sutton came to Congress in 2006 to replace newly minted U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown in a district that zigzags from Akron northward to southern Cuyahoga County and Lorain. Sales executive Dave Potter is the GOP nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 14 (S-Factor 1.8 GOP): While this district situated in the eastern suburbs of Cleveland appears to be competitive on paper, Steve LaTourette has proved otherwise, often winning by comfortable margins or better. Democrats argue that LaTourette is vulnerable and have united around former state appellate court judge Bill O'Neill. LaTourette leads the fundraising race with $1.15 million to O'Neill's $350K, even though some have billed O'Neill as a prime candidate. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 15 (S-Factor 0.8 GOP): Centrist Deborah Pryce is retiring from this swing district situated in downtown Columbus and its western suburbs, and Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy is the nominee once again after almost defeating Pryce in 2006. The Republicans are fielding State Senator Steve Stivers, who has polled competitively against Kilroy, though the latter is winning the fundraising battle with $1.56 million to Stivers' $1.22 million). Prediction: Tossup.

District 16 (S-Factor 3.5 GOP): Ralph Regula has been a stalwart in this GOP-leaning swing district situated in such towns as Canton, Wooster and Medina since 1973. His retirement has thrown this district into play for the Democrats. Both camps are fielding State Senators: Kirk Schuring on the Republican side, John Boccieri for the Democrats. An internal poll shows Schuring leading Boccieri by six points, while fundraising is relatively mixed with Schuring leading in individual donors ($701K over Boccieri's $534K) and Boccieri having more cash on hand ($531K vs. $349K for Schuring). This will go either way. Prediction: Tossup.

District 17 (S-Factor 14.5 DEM): This purely Democratic district is dominated by the cities of Youngstown, Kent and Warren. Incumbent Tim Ryan, a former staffer to the district's flamboyant previous officeholder, Jim Traficant, came to Congress in 2003 following the latter's conviction (and expulsion from Congress) due to racketeering and other allegations that landed him behind bars and prompted Ryan's candidacy. Ryan should be safe against teacher Duane Grassell. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 18 (S-Factor 6.3 GOP): Republicans have been targeting this seat in such towns as Zanesville, Chillicothe and New Philadelphia, all situated east of Columbus, west of the southeastern 6th district, and south of Canton. The reason: Republicans argue that Zack Space's double-digit victory in the district was a fluke. After all, Space's victory was in part the result of former Congressman Bob Ney's ties to Jack Abramoff that eventually led to Ney's resignation -- and sentence to prison, as well as reports of a business bankruptcy involving the emergency GOP candidate in 2006, State Senator Joy Padgett. The GOP is fielding former State Agriculture Director Fred Dailey, but fundraising numbers have been lagging for Dailey. Prediction: Favor DEM.

Next stop: Texas.