Democrats 2, Republicans 1 = Not The Actual Perspective

Let's face it...In recent weeks, the Democrats have outpolled Republicans largely by a 2-to-1 margin. Some would point that there is more enthusiasm on the left side of the aisle than on the right. But from a broader perspective, a 2-to-1 Democrat majority at the polls is not very troubling to Texas Republicans, and what I will present will explain...

First, the presidential race is already over for the GOP. Polls show John McCain with a huge lead over Mike Huckabee. In spite of Huckabee's chances to appeal to socially conservative voters, he still comes up short compared to large McCain majorities witnessed in suburbs like those of Northern Virginia and Milwaukee after Mitt Romney dropped the ball (To be honest, Mitt would have carried Fort Bend had he stayed in it, and I was going for Rudy Giuliani well before he dropped the ball...I stayed in it well to the end). McCain has picked up Mitt (fiscal conservative), Rudy (classic moderate) and Fred Thompson (Southern conservative) as supporters, and more is surely to come for McCain. By contrast, Huckabee is practically in it either to give religious conservatives a choice, or better yet to give McCain a potential running mate opportunity. Ron Paul is no longer a factor in the race.

By contrast, the Democrats are now at a crossroads. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are playing the shell game when it comes to what they want to win, and who they want to win over. Therefore, Democrats are energized for the first time in years, independents already sold on a McCain GOP nomination are taking a look at this race, and Republicans themselves want to sweeten the pot.

In Clinton's case, she is betting on high voter turnout among older Americans, meat-and-potatoes Democrats who advocate minimum wage and health care, Latinos (older ones mainly), and those who believed in Bill Clinton's legacy. For Obama, the key to victory (and a November honeymoon with McCain...and Ralph Nader) focuses on younger voters (and I know many friends who are Obamacrats and Obamacans), wine-and-cheese Democrats and more affluent socially moderate-to-liberal Republican stereotypes, African-Americans, and those who want something different (including those who agree that Hillary is divisive). As Fort Bend is a family county, I cannot pick sides on this one since Fort Bend represents America, and America as a whole is diverse, united in pride and patriotism, and looking towards a brighter future, much in the same way Fort Bend is.

Therefore, the stakes are more divided in the Dems' den, and therefore the Democrats are the big primary for the moment. Not to mention John Edwards holding out on who to nominate, but he seems to be the eventual veep nominee.

Second, the numbers for early voting statewide show Democrats outpolling the GOP 3-to-1. In fact, only in Montgomery County (which went 3-to-1 for Bush in 2004) did the GOP outpoll Democrats, and cannot think of one Democrat holding elected office other than precinct chair in MonCo, just like the Republicans dominate countywide office here in Fort Bend (it probably won't be the case in Harris though courtesy of the Chuck Rosenthal scandal). Given the proportions, any county whose early voting for Republicans measured four percent or more of registrations this year suggests good prospects for Republicans in 2008...and that bodes well for Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Montgomery, and Williamson county GOPers.

Finally, Republicans have already settled on their choices. Save for the CD22 primary, Texas GOP pools have already been set in stone, with John Cornyn running for re-election, many Republicans without major opponents, and some members of the party now beginning to stand up for what they believe in instead of what their more controversial cohorts have done. In contrast, the Democrats have done poorly in capitalizing on their takeover of Congress, and now Democratic pundits in Austin are aiming to tie Republicans of all stripes, regardless of how independent their voting records are, to Rick Perry and Tom Craddick when in reality many GOP state representatives have taken shots at the two...Charlie Howard for instance attacked Perry for his stance on the HPV vaccine. When apples get compared to oranges, voters will eventually see that the views of a handful of organizations should not set the agenda for our state, or our country.

These facts should not discourage Republicans from going to the polls. We have a competitive CD22 race...a competitive HD26 race...competitive Precinct 1 races...and come May, a competitive race for Mayor in Sugar Land.

Vote March 4...it will be the one day you will never regret!

New predicted matchup: McCain vs. Obama

In tonight's Beltway/Chesapeake/Potomac/Capital Primaries...John McCain and Barack Obama came away with victories.

In Virginia, Mike Huckabee had the early edge thanks to religious conservatives in rural areas who don't realize that abortion and gay marriage are not issues worth talking about in this election; we only use the plank to appease those who otherwise would not elect a fiscally conservative or military-friendly Republican. My advice to rural evangelicals: the economy and Iraq are the big issues now, get over it.

But the victory for McCain can be credited to three places: the military communities in the Hampton Roads area as well as the Richmond area, but most importantly victory can be credited to the suburbs of Washington, D.C. To those in Northern Virginia who live in the cozy confines of affluent suburbia which tend towards the Tom Davis/John Warner variety of elephant bully pulpits (my term for top-tier GOP officials), we salute you.

Of course, for the Democrats victory goes to Barack Obama, whose message translated into wins across almost every metropolitan area in the Commonwealth. Only Southwest Virginia - Rep. Rick Boucher's slice of the state -- went to Hillary Clinton.

Obama also scored wins tonight in Maryland and the District of Columbia. John McCain did the same thing on the GOP side -- with less stress since Huckabee's social conservatism does not play well in the nation's capital -- or Maryland.

And it appears we'll have one or two more open seats. In Maryland's CD-4 (most of Prince George's County), Al Wynn is just about on his way out. Donna Edwards will be the new Congresswoman in what is a heavily African-American -- albeit strongly Democratic -- suburban Washington district.

And we could see a new congressman in CD-1, which George W. Bush won with 62% of the vote in 2004. This is a pretty much safe Republican district save a strong Democrat effort. But Wayne Gilchrest is essentially the Ron Paul of the Northeast, and unlike coastal Texans who are proudly Libertarian to an extent, Gilchrest is a tad more liberal than Paul in a number of ways. Right now, it is down to Maryland State Senator Andy Harris, who is now barely leading Gilchrest.

The election is looking rather interesting. More updates as they come.

P.S. The Writers' strike has just ended, a relief we can all enjoy. Now I can look forward to my favorite shows once again.

Could it be over?

Today, we could be seeing the end of the writers' strike. The WGA (and there are two branches by the way...) has tentatively agreed to the deal and that means many of your favorite shows will be coming back in a few weeks at the earliest.

Overall, given the largely liberal political views of Hollywood, I am giving my thumbs up to the writers because they are the ones behind many of the great punchlines that give us a reason to remember our favorite shows...for instance, the SNL digital short with Justin Timberlake in Christmas of '06...the various punchlines from many sitcoms ranging from those of Steve Carell in The Office to those of Charlie Sheen in Two and a Half Men...the tantalizing details of what goes at Seattle Grace in Grey's Anatomy or on Wisteria Lane in Desperate Housewives...and even all the cannon fodder late-night can stuff into the bag...after all, even hosts sometimes can't save the day.

Another reason for this is that while the writers are liberal in their views, the studio executives are not only unwilling to share the pie but they also largely contribute to liberals as well. For starters, ex-Disney CEO Michael Eisner gave 59% to Democrats and 14% to Republicans (Notice the brighter colors; I am trying to make my musings more readable), Barry Diller (formerly of Fox and USA) gave over four-fifths (almost $360,000) to the Democrats (but at least gave to John McCain). The only major studio executive with strong GOP ties is Rupert Murdoch (59% to the GOP). Finally, to top it off, Haim Saban (who runs Saban Entertainment) is a staunch Democrat. He donated over $13.5 million to political causes, $13.4 million of which went to Democrats. And yes, many of the screenwriters who picketed were Democrats, but after all, it's the media moguls who have the money - and the power - to shape the nation, at least in their lexicon.

Finally, many Americans are just sick and tired of seeing their favorite shows being dumped one by one in favor of vastly overrated reality shows. The only such shows I would consider watching are Survivor and Big Brother (and to some extent The Amazing Race and The Biggest Loser) which have actual appeal, the rest are just full of idiotic scenarios many will eventually forget. I would not consider Extreme Makeover Home Edition to be reality because it is akin to the Habitat projects I did as a high school student. And I would not consider any of the game shows and competitions on the air right now (Deal or No Deal for instance) to be reality because those shows are just a whole another ballgame. In fact, my uncle has been making calls to his friends and our neighbor across the street in Sugar Land asking NBC to spare Friday Night Lights from what is going to be quite a mess for the networks to deal with at the cancellation block, especially at NBC, and already third-place KPRC/Channel 2 here in Houston has suffered even more in NBC's decline. Luckily many of the ABC dramas and the CBS CSI franchise will definitely be spared. Not too sure about Fox (which basically builds its schedule around American Idol with mediocre shows), the CW (which is well out of my league now), and MyNetworkTV (which is more deserving of the title "Used Parts Network" than its predecessor was, since it is a shame, and KTXH/Channel 20 is better off as an independent).

Starting as early as 3:00 this afternoon, we'll have some details when the dust settles. As I said, it will take a couple of weeks to get back in the groove, though.

P.S. we have the Beltway Primary today in D.C. and its suburbs (and Baltimore, Richmond, Roanoke and the Hampton Roads, too)...so don't spoil the fun!

Previewing the Texas congressional primaries...

We are now less than a month from our state primary, and the stakes are high in the race for President, especially now that the Lone Star State has become key to both parties (especially in one). But we should not overlook the challenges present in the 32 congressional races...as well as the Senate election coming up this November.

Take note: Red is for Republicans, blue for Democrats, Libertarians are gold, and purple means they are Constitutionalists (supporters of the Constitution Party).

So now, here's a look at the 32 congressional seats and how they stack up:

District 1 (Tyler/Longview/Lufkin) - Louie Gohmert has held this seat since 2004 and had no trouble winning in 2006 against a weak Democrat on the ballot. This time, Gohmert is only facing token opposition from Constitutionalist James Stephen King and swimming pool contractor Roger Owen, who is now running as an independent. Odds: Gohmert with 75-80%.

District 2 (Humble/Kingwood/Beaumont) - Ted Poe also coasted last year with almost two-thirds of the vote. The strong GOP vote in Harris is enough to more than cancel out the Democrat union vote in Beaumont. And this time, he only has Libertarian Craig Wolfe to deal with. Odds: Poe with 75-80%.

District 3 (Plano/Richardson/Garland) - Sam Johnson represents what is arguably a strong GOP district nestled in the affluent northern suburbs of Dallas. Johnson is getting close to 80 years old and is speculated to retire sometime as early as the 2010 cycle. George W. Bush won two-thirds of the vote here, but Democrats gained ground in 2004 as John Kerry fared three points better than Al Gore did in 2000, whereas Dubya lost four, making it a Republican district that puts fiscal conservatism and pro-growth politics ahead of the concerns of the religious right (and Johnson fared worse in 2006 with only 62.5%). Two Republicans are challenging Johnson: businessman Wayne Avellanet and retired pilot Harry Pierce. The Democrats are fielding attorney Tom Daley and retiree Ron Minkow. Odds: Johnson will win 60-65%.

District 4 (Frisco/Rockwall/Sherman/Texarkana) - Ralph Hall is the oldest member of Congress, and Republicans predict he will retire in the foreseeable future. Four are stepping up to the plate to challenge Hall, the strongest candidates appearing to be NASCAR team owner Gene Christensen and former Frisco mayor Kathy Seei. Glenn Melancon is running on the Dem ticket again, and VaLinda Hathcox (a former candidate for Land Commissioner) is going to challenge Melancon for the right to face Hall...if the latter gets past the first round which he will likely do. Odds: The GOP, regardless of the candidate, should win 60-70%.

District 5 (Garland/Mesquite/northeast Dallas) - Republican Jeb Hensarling is a strong fiscal conservative nonetheless. And that's the kind of conservatism that wins votes in the 5th. Dubya scored two-thirds of the vote each time here. And Jeb will have it easy going this time, only token opposition exists. Odds: Hensarling 80-85%.

District 6 (Arlington/Corsicana/Ennis) - Joe Barton has been around for a long time -- ever since Phil Gramm traded in this seat for the Senate. The Democrats held him to 61% last time, but the two times before that showed two-thirds of the vote going to Barton...and Bush. Speaking of Bush, there is a Democrat running with the name Bush: attorney Steve Bush, and also educator Ludwig Otto. Odds: Barton in a walk 65-70%.

District 7 (West Houston) - Last time, John Culberson got 59% of the vote and in 2004 John Kerry gained ground over Bush, who lost five while Kerry gained four. But if it weren't for the religious right, this would still be the dominant GOP district in Greater Houston (a title the 8th holds for now). The Democrats are thinking Culberson is vulnerable and have fielded wind energy executive Michael Skelly. Nonetheless, Skelly's resume for a Democrat is very impressive: a successful energy entrepreneur (pro-business plank), has plans to put more health care in the hands of patients and doctors and not our government (not HillaryCare), supports a diplomatic surge in addition to our surge in Iraq (a very pragmatic approach nonetheless), and he is Irish-American. It should be noted that this was one of the best performing districts for Kinky Friedman, which shows that what's good for West Texas (George W. Bush, Rick Perry, Tom Craddick) is not necessarily good for west Houston, where private tolls are persona non grata. Another challenge is that the Democrats' strength is almost entirely concentrated in the eastern portion (around the purple confines of HD134 which includes Bellaire and West U), but much of west Houston (save for a few minority pockets) is GOP territory, and Culberson is a grassroots master, even if Skelly takes his message out to Jersey Village and the Memorial area. Odds: Culberson 55-65%.

District 8 (The Woodlands/Conroe/Huntsville/Jasper) - George W. Bush got 72% here last time and 69% in 2000, but Kevin Brady has typically done worse here, albeit by a couple of points (67.3% in 2006, 68.9% in 2004). The last two times, he faced a nutcase by the name of James Wright, having seen his archived website which is basically profanity-laced propaganda that looks more like a congressional campaign website run by a 4-year-old. This time, a saner Dem exists to challenge Brady: non-profit director and one-time Montgomery County Hospital District candidate Kent Hargett. Brady should win anyway. Odds: Brady with 65-70%.

District 9 (Southwest Houston and the South Side) - Democrat Al Green was unopposed last time, and will face token opposition this time. Odds: Green blows the opposition out of the water, 80-90%.

District 10 (North Austin/Northwest Harris/Brenham) - This is a very far-reaching district, and Republican Michael McCaul lost a lot of ground winning only 55.3% last time against a heavily underfunded Democrat. John Kerry also gained a lot in 2004 compared to Gore in 2000, 38% compared to Gore's 33%, and Bush lost six points between the lines. Two Democrats are on the ballot: television courtroom judge Larry Joe Doherty and Iraq contractor Dan Grant. Doherty will do well in rural areas, Grant in more urbane ones. The question is: which one will save the day on March 4? Yet the GOP should have no trouble winning this seat. Odds: McCaul 55-65%.

District 11 (Midland/Odessa/San Angelo) - This district should be a rout for Mike Conaway. Odds: Conaway 75-80%.

District 12 (Fort Worth) - Kay Granger is a relatively moderate Republican in a 2-to-1 GOP district. The Democrat is realtor Tracey Smith. Odds: Granger will win big, 65-75%.

District 13 (Amarillo/Wichita Falls) - Mac Thornberry is going to win another term, whether businessman Roger Waun likes it or not. Odds: Thornberry 75-80%.

District 14 (Victoria/Lake Jackson/Galveston/Cinco Ranch) - Ron Paul may be a second-tier candidate for President, but Paul's message resounds very well here in southeast Texas which he has proudly represented for many years and served as our first GOP congressman in decades. There are conservatives who don't like some of his stances, something Friendswood City Councilman Chris Peden hopes to take advantage of. Odds: Regardless of the Republican, and Paul is likely to win, the Democrat-less race will be a walk, 75-80%.

District 15 (McAllen/Beeville) - Ruben Hinojosa is a relatively moderate Democrat in the heavily rural and Hispanic South Texas region. Salesman Eddie Zamora is the GOP candidate this time, and Hinojosa should pull away as he has always done. Odds: Hinojosa takes home 60-65%.

District 16 (El Paso) - The last time a Republican faced Silvestre Reyes, the latter got two-thirds at the polls. That should be no different this time around. Odds: Reyes 65-70%.

District 17 (Waco/Bryan/College Station) - Chet Edwards has won in Central Texas by being a moderate Democrat and taking stances not representative of Democrat orthodoxy. Republican Rob Curnock is looking to prove Edwards vulnerable. Odds: Edwards 55-60%.

District 18 (Downtown Houston) - This district has traditionally been the hope of liberal African-American voters in southeast Texas, having produced Barbara Jordan, Mickey Leland, Craig Washington and the current incumbent, Sheila Jackson-Lee. Two Republicans who sharply disagree with her politics, Ron Paul activist John Faulk and magazine publisher TJ Baker Holm, are hoping to be the sacrifical lamb in November. Odds: Jackson-Lee 80-85%.

District 19 (Abilene/Lubbock) - Two Democrats are looking to take on Republican Randy Neugebauer in an arguably safe district that Neugebauer took control of in a special election when Larry Combest bailed out. Odds: Neugebauer takes home 70-80%.

District 20 (Most of San Antonio within Loop 410) - In a very Democratic and Hispanic district, one name stands above all: Gonzalez. And Charlie Gonzalez should have the race to himself over Republican retiree Robert Litoff. Odds: Gonzalez with 75-85%.

District 21 (Northeast San Antonio and the Hill Country) - Lamar Smith was the lone Republican survivor in a judicially mandated re-draw of the state's congressional districts. He will win handily -- with no Democrat on the ballot. Odds: Smith snags 75-80%.

District 22 (Sugar Land/Pearland/southeast Houston) - This was Tom DeLay's district -- which was surrendered to the Democrat incumbent, Nick Lampson thanks to our relegation to the write-in ballot, and a mediocre GOP candidate in former Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. As I mentioned on this blog earlier, I have endorsed former Sugar Land mayor Dean Hrbacek, a tax attorney with a strong record of cutting taxes. Among the others: John Manlove is also a former mayor (in this case Pasadena, and is backed by Sugar Land's current mayor, David Wallace as well as the mayors of Pearland, League City, Friendswood and Deer Park, among other areas). Pete Olson is a former Gramm and Cornyn aide. Jim Squier served as a District Court Judge. Bob Talton has legislative experience, which the others don't have. Cynthia Dunbar is a pro-ID conservative who serves on the State Board of Education. Kevyn Bazzy and Brian Klock are Army and Navy reservists, respectively. And Ryan Rowley is a high-tech Gulf War veteran. Whoever wins will have a great shot at taking back CD22. Odds: Lampson will be held to 40-50% in this 2-1 GOP district.

District 23 (Northwest and South San Antonio/Del Rio) - Democrat Ciro Rodriguez took this district out of Henry Bonilla's hands when the latter beared the wrath of a judicial redistricting. Attorney Quico Canseco has raised a lot of money, and Lyle Larson has served as a commish in Bexar County. Odds: Rodriguez will be held to 45-55%.

District 24 (The Mid-Cities of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex) - Republican Kenny Marchant snagged 60% in 2006, five points worse than Bush in 2004. This district has a lot of Hispanic voters, which explains the numbers above. Tom Love is the Democrat in the race. Odds: Marchant 60-65%.

District 25 (Austin and the Colorado Valley) - Democrat Lloyd Doggett got much of his Austin base back in 2006, but also got the Colorado Valley as well. Doggett is not vulnerable, though. The Republicans only have an environmental contractor, George Morovich, in the running. Odds: Doggett will win 60-70%.

District 26 (Denton County/northern Fort Worth) - Michael Burgess took home 60% in what was a relatively good year for the Democrats. The Dems have a former congressional aide vying for the seat, Ken Leach. Odds: Burgess wins anyway, 60-70%.

District 27 (Corpus Christi/Brownsville) - Any Democrat in South Texas who wonders why staunch liberals don't get elected here in the first place should go down to Corpus Christi, where Solomon Ortiz has held his own from the get-go (1982, to be specific). But Ortiz actually lost ground here in 2006, with only 57% of the vote and Bush actually won here in 2004, compared to a tie in 2000 with Al Gore. The Republicans are fielding two-time defending GOP candidate and former Ingleside mayor Willie Vaden, and George Benavidez as well. Odds: Ortiz wins 55-65%.

District 28 (Laredo) - Henry Cuellar is probably one of the most conservative Democrats - and arguably the most conservative minority Democrat - in Congress. Cuellar has staying power against Republican health care consultant Jim Fish. Odds: Cuellar 60-70%.

District 29 (East Houston) - Gene Green represents a strongly Hispanic district, but don't expect Green to face a challenge anytime soon given his 3-to-1 win last time. Eric Story is running again for the seat. Odds: Green wins 70-75%.

District 30 (South Dallas) - Eddie Bernice Johnson has been representing this heavily African-American and Hispanic district since its birth in 1992 and will roll over any Republican that comes into view. Odds: Johnson in a rout, 80-90%.

District 31 (North Austin suburbs/Fort Hood) - John Carter represents a 2-1 GOP district, but fell into the same trap as John Culberson above: surrendering almost 40% of the vote to an underfunded Democrat. But like Culberson, John Carter should have no trouble powering past his Democratic opponent this time, radio producer Brian Ruiz. Odds: Carter wins 55-65%.

District 32 (North Dallas) - Democrats have fielded three candidates in this North Dallas district: retired attorney Dennis Burns, realtor Steve Love, and attorney Eric Roberson. But despite a rather large Hispanic population (36% to be specific), the race should still be winnable for Republican incumbent Pete Sessions. After all, this is North Dallas. Odds: Sessions wins 55-65%.

Finally, I predict that the U.S. Senate race in Texas will pit incumbent Republican John Cornyn against Democrat State Representative Rick Noriega, and Cornyn will win 55-65%.

This is going to be an interesting election season. As time goes on, we'll see what happens.