Four Governors...One Winner
Texas, as everyone should know, is a big state. Yes, so big that Beaumont is closer to the Atlantic than it is to El Paso, and El Paso is closer to the Pacific than it is to Beaumont...Confused yet? Well, Texas is about to experience a governor's race so big that the podium manufacturers of America may have to manufacture two more podiums...or to save money...cut the podiums into wedges.
This year, four people, that's right, FOUR, will be running with the grand prize being a four-year stay in the Governor's Mansion. The cast of characters is eccentric: First, there's the Republican stalwart Rick Perry who despite his bad poll numbers has won over every conservative organization in Texas and even the Teamsters. Then you have the Houston journalist-turned-lame duck Democratic Congressman Chris Bell who is running on the "Education Governor" platform as well as a platform of reformed ethics. For those who know about Oklahoma politics, this is the policy that Oklahoma's Democratic Governor Brad Henry used in addition to his opposition to a cockfighting ban that won him over in 2002. (The GOP candidate there at the time proposed the ban).
And then things get tricky with two independent, populist candidates. First you have a candidate who calls for budget reform and a crackdown on partisan politics in Comptroller and self-styled "One Tough Grandma" Carole Keeton Strayhorn. And then you have Texas country singer and self-styled "Jewish Cowboy" Kinky Friedman, who aims to attract vegans, college students, and anyone who didn't vote the last time around to come over to his campaign. But these are voting blocs that hardly ever shell out the vote.
Still, what does a recent SurveyUSA poll show?
Among generations, voters on Social Security and Medicare, as well as Baby Boomers, are taking their votes to Governor Perry. But they will have to keep up with the Joneses that make up a majority of likely Texas voters, a small margin, that is. The Joneses' vote will go to Perry. The Gen X vote (80s music, Levi's, 90210, MTV with music, The Simpsons) will be split between Perry and Kinky, and the Gen Y crowd (DMB, Abercrombie & Fitch, The O.C., MTV with reality, Family Guy) will be shelling out their votes to Chris Bell.
Now let's look at the geographical areas. How do they fare?
Urban (Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin): Perry wins. Bell finishes second.
Suburban (Sugar Land, Plano, New Braunfels, Round Rock): Perry on top. Kinky takes second.
Rural (Hempstead, Waxahachie, Stockdale, Bastrop): Perry performs best here. Bell is second. Kinky and Grandma are all tied up.
Now let's go to the regional vote. Rick Perry is going to win the vote in DFW, but only by 3%. Kinky is faring very well out there. In West Texas, Perry wins outright. East Texas will go all out for Perry as well. But it should be no surprise that the Houston area will go for hometown product Chris Bell, which kinda makes Houston to Texas what Philadelphia is to Pennsylvania (PA Governor Ed Rendell (D) was a former mayor of Philadelphia, and he is popular even in the Philly burbs). And Houston is a conservative stalwart compared to Philly.
Now how does the vote turn out when compared to Dubya's poll numbers? Nearly three-fifths of Perry supporters are Bush backers, and over two-fifths of Bell supporters consider Bush to be a disease. And it should be no surprise that most of the Kinky and Grandma crowd is comprised of Bush-whackers.
As for moneymakers, well, there is a mixed Annual Report. Rick Perry gets good support from wealthy Texans, middle-class Texans, and even over a quarter of working-class Texans. Still, Bell has a majority of the welfare-to-work and blue-collar employee crowd. Perry has a double-digit lead over Kinky for the middle class, and wealthy voters give Kinky enough support to be within single digits of Perry.
Education attainment is also a factor in the electionn. Most likely voters have attended some college, and Gov. Perry has a double-digit advantage over his opponents. Even those with no college back Perry, yet Bell still has strong support. The college vote is going to Perry (35%), with Kinky close behind (26%). Postgrads are giving the thumbs up, er, Gig 'Em sign, to Perry, yet Bell is only single digits behind.
So Rick Perry is coming off clean, right? Let's see...
On political cross-currents, Conservatives (making up a majority of Texans) overwhelmingly favor Perry, while Moderates and Liberals favor Bell. Looks like this is now starting to get pretty interesting...
On partisanship, it's what we expected. Republicans favor Perry overwhelmingly (56%). Bell has overwhelming support from the Democrats. And Kinky is taking in a big chunk of the Independent vote. Grandma, believe it or not, has the support of 14% of the GOP, 20% of Dems, and 9% of indies. The indies also make up the bulk of Libertarian James Werner's support.
On race, whites make up two-thirds of the projected voting bloc, and Perry is the winner in this category. Hispanic voters (one-fifth of the bloc) also favor Perry. A majority of blacks support Bell. The other voters (Asians, Native Americans) favor Perry overwhelmingly.
Age is also part of the voting system, so now we're starting to get a fountain of youth over here. The young vote is going for Kinky (one-third at least), and that's where the bulk of Kinky's support is. The elementary and intermediate school parents are going strong for Perry. The high school parents and the Boomers are also for Perry. Mature voters are also going for Perry as well.
Finally, it comes to gender. That's right, we're goin' back in our disco shoes and splitting the line between Macho Man and I'm Every Woman. Women are slightly pulling for Perry, Bell, and Grandma. Kinky's no-nonsense, tough man attitude is bringing the men to the polling places. Yet a majority of men would go for Perry, and a majority of women would do the same thing.
So how would it all come out? Well, all I know, friends and neighbors, is that the race is going to split everyone in Texas, and even families would be divided over their choices. Chances are you'll have one family member going for Perry and another going for Grandma.
Of course, in my opinion, if this were Quahog, only Stewie (assuming he gets a fake voter ID since he is a baby and given his diabolical persona) would be giving Perry a chance for a second term, Peter (and Meg and Chris, if they were eligible to vote) would sell out to Kinky, Lois would go for Grandma (assuming that education and balanced budgets are a priority given the wealth of her ancestral family), and Brian, given his liberal slant, would ring for Bell.
So now, there you have it. The Texas Governor's Race 2006 according to Kyle Stanley. Now go register to vote and get ready to make plans for Election Day. You'll thank yourself in the end.
Kyle Stanley's Perspectives on Life (and whatever else may come)