Howard v. FBISD: It's All About The Children

I admit, I have been overemphasizing my national chops recently with the Nifty Fifty. This will continue, but to make this more of what it ought to be...a mixture of local, state and national insights (and yes, I will even go overseas)...and some personal qualities, I have decided to focus on my home base...

Just recently my local State Representative, Charlie Howard (R-Sugar Land/HD26) skewered Fort Bend ISD board trustees over a budget proposal. In particular, the school board voted on a budget to increase the tax rate by two cents in order to make up a budget deficit resulting from the passage of a bond issue last year to fund new schools and improve existing ones. While district employees lauded the budget proposal (most notably a three percent pay raise), Howard spoke out against it, arguing that it imposed a two-cent tax increase came at a time when property values have been on the rise in the area.

The board's response? Board President Sonal Bhuchar stated that the maintenance and operations tax rate will not go up, and the two-cent increase will make up for the debt resulting from the 2007 bond. The bond includes a new high school in Sienna Plantation, an area that is definitely in need of a new high school courtesy of the planned community's growth.

Two other trustees harbored stronger feelings about Howard's comments.

Steve Smelley stated that he had been humiliated for his involvement in a year-long budget review, and called the remarks "horrible". But he also had a reason for the first-ever budget deficit in the history of FBISD: the state's contribution to our school system has declined considerably, the result of Governor Rick Perry's Dixiecrat mentality that almost shut down the Legislature in 2005. Remember, Slick Rick is a former Democrat and NOT a Real Republican by any chance; the Trans-Texas Corridor is a textbook example of Perry's Religious Right- and "lower taxes, higher spending"- backed agenda. Bob Broxson sided with Smelley, arguing that bad state education policies resulted in the budget being what it is, and that Howard "didn’t even know what the numbers were" and that state legislators failed to do their part in regards to public education.

Now don't get me wrong, I am all for low taxes, less spending and balanced budgets, but our spending priorities should focus more on what is worth investing in, not what is going to kill this state's financial health all for the sake of placating a miniscule but loud minority of right-wing radicals who don't even live or vote (let alone, pay taxes) in Fort Bend. What is worth investing in is improving schools by making them more innovative and more appealing to parents. What is not worth investing in is bankrupting schools with draconian "teach to the test", No Child Left Behind and "nanny state" tactics that have made this district cannon fodder for a number of unwanted -- and undeserving -- headlines.

And yes, Charlie Howard does have a point about taxes. Our property taxes have been facing a crisis of sorts, and here, trying to appease everyone is akin to Donkey Kong juggling on a moving unicycle with half a tire missing. Being a board member is a very tough job, and it is not just because of the fact that board trustees are unpaid, but because sound financial planning and investment in education is a very important factor in whether or not families want to move to Fort Bend. Let's face it, many parents are not willing to shell out thousands of money on expensive private schools, sometimes lack the sufficient time and resources to home school their children without busting their budget, and charter schools here have mixed results. In fact, there was even an old legend where my old high school JV basketball team (where I was the statistician) was slated to face a controversial charter school noted for its poor accountability...the latter team was a no-show, and I wasn't even there.

Howard believes the tax burden here is too high. And he also does believe that both his position and those of the board trustees are very difficult jobs. Confused yet? Read this:

“I’ve been a strong supporter of public education, but the one thing I hear when I walk my district is that people think taxes are too high. My goal is to help them get relief from those taxes.”

Of course, Howard also pointed out that the Legislature increased funding for local school districts and that the state should invest more for public education in the upcoming Legislature. Time will tell whether or not Howard, the Board, or both, will be vindicated.

Nonetheless, if Howard doesn't get past the "Goodhair Fortress" which aims to undermine the state's schools, it could give a savvy Republican, or even a Democrat, a shot at this district. After all, HD27's Dora Olivo had a close call this year as well against a well-funded and well-backed primary challenger, and eked out a victory.

Want more details? Try these news links: At the meeting. Or after. It's Your Call.

The Nifty Fifty Bonus Party

We have now reached the halfway point in the Nifty Fifty, and so it is at this point I have decided to offer up a bonus page. The Bullet Train to November is grounded now in Idaho, but the focus is now on six "silent seats" who speak for the parts of the Union that are not part of a state...

THE DELEGATES

American Samoa: This territory is situated in the South Pacific to the east of Australia and northeast of New Zealand. While elections here are non-partisan, Eni Faleomavaega has served the territory as a Democrat since his first election in 1988. Former congressional aide and RNC member Aumau Amata Radewagen is the Republican candidate for this Delegate spot.

District of Columbia: Designed as a special district independent of a state with three electoral votes and no voter representation, the District has been the subject of statehood issues for quite some time and its residents pays federal income tax, hence the slogan "taxation without representation". The District is very heavily Democratic, and longtime Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton is a heavy favorite for re-election; no Republican has filed to challenge her, only candidates from the Libertarian, Socialist Workers and Statehood-Green parties have filed to challenge the incumbent.

Guam: This territory is located north of Australia and draws its economy largely from tourism and American military bases. Its delegate since 2002 has been Madeleine Bordallo, who has caucused in Washington as a Democrat.

Northern Marianas: These islands as a whole make up a commonwealth situated north of Guam, which combines with the Northern Marianas to form the Mariana Islands, and serve as the only insular area of the United States with no congressional representation of its own; the Delegate from Guam primarily represents the commonwealth's interests on Capitol Hill. That will all change however, following a bill (S. 2739) signed by George W. Bush earlier this year which grants the commonwealth. The Republicans have picked Resident Representative Pete Tenorio, while Democrats have nominated former territorial Senator David Cing.

Puerto Rico: Here is another place where its political status is a subject of continuous debate. Three political parties describe the future of Puerto Rico: continue as a Commonwealth (Partido Popular Democrático (PPD)), become the 51st state admitted into the Union (Partido Nuevo Progresista (PNP)), or become its own independent nation (Partido Independentista Puertorriqueño (PIP)). PNP/Republican Resident Commissioner Luis Fortuño is running for Governor, meaning there will be a new Resident Commissioner in 2008: either former Secretary of Justice Pedro Pierluisi (PNP), former Puerto Rico Government Development Bank President Alfredo Salazar (PPD), independence activist Jessica Martinez (PIP), or Carlos Alberto Velázquez, who is running under the Partido Puertorriqueños por Puerto Rico (PPR) ticket, which serves as a Green Party of sorts.

U.S. Virgin Islands: America's share of the Virgin Islands takes in the western islands of St. Croix, St. John, and St. Thomas (The others, Anegada, Jost Van Dyke, Tortola, Tortuga, Virgin Gorda, and a host of smaller islands fall into the British Virgin Islands). The American islands are represented in Congress by Delegate Donna Christensen.

Next stop: The Bonus Page (a much bigger one).

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXV: Idaho

Last time, the Bullet Train to November went through Missouri, a bellwether state that will be key to who becomes the 44th occupant of 1600. This time, the train is roaring out west -- and north -- to a state that is hardly a bellwether, one with a significant partisan history...

IDAHO

Its abundance of natural resources gives this state its nickname of the Gem State, but Idaho is perhaps more well known for its potato crops as it produces nearly a third of America's spuds. The state falls into two time zones with the smokestack-shaped northern areas east of Spokane, Washington (Coeur d'Alene, Lewiston and all points north of the Salmon River) falling into the Pacific Time Zone while the Mountain Time Zone covers the rest of the state, including Boise, Idaho Falls and Twin Falls. The origin of the name of Idaho has a puzzling history. In the early 1860s, lobbyist George M. Willing suggested to Congress that a new territory situated in the Rocky Mountains should be called "Idaho", or "the sun comes from the mountains" in Shoshone language. While Willing later admitted to making up the name himself, the name stuck and eventually Idaho became the 43rd state on July 3, 1890.

Today, Idaho has become a hotbed for high-tech industry, with semiconductor and printer manufacturing now a major part of the state's electronics manufacturing base. Mining, food processing (including the world's largest barrel cheese factory) and tourism also play a significant role in the Idaho economy. Among the Idahoans with roots in the state: electronics inventor Philo Farnsworth, news anchor and columnist Lou Dobbs, and Baseball Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew.

Idaho is one of the most Republican states in the country, having given George W. Bush well over 68 percent of the vote in 2004, and its entire congressional delegation -- House and Senate -- has been Republican since 1994. However, one House seat has fallen into a peril of sorts -- the result of a freshman member's penchant for controversy.

District 1 (S-Factor 18.0 GOP): This district covers Boise and most of its surrounding suburbs along with northern Idaho (Coeur d'Alene, Lewiston), is strongly Republican and gave Dubya 69% of the vote. What is surprising is that conservative freshman Bill Sali received a surprisingly small 50% of the vote. However, what is not surprising is that Sali, who succeeded Butch Otter when the latter became Governor of Idaho, has shown flak amongst Idahoans, even before he was elected to Congress. In particular, one poll showed favorable/unfavorable ratings of 32/46 within the district's Republican base, and Sali has generated some controversial comments such as, among others, a link between abortion and breast cancer. The Democrats are pinning their hopes on businessman and attorney Walt Minnick, who ran for the U.S. Senate in 1996 and has outpaced Sali in funds raised (nearly $1 million to Sali's $494K) and cash-on-hand ($444K to $158K). While Sali is still favored to hold this seat, and was even named President of the GOP's House freshman class, he will need to stop producing gaffes or risk losing this otherwise Republican seat. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 17.5 GOP): As for Idaho's other congressman, Mike Simpson is in very safe territory in a district that covers Eastern Idaho (Idaho Falls, Twin Falls) and parts of the Boise metropolitan area. The Democrats will try with realtor Debbie Holmes, but will come up short. Prediction: Solid GOP.

Next stop: The Bonus Page.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXIV: Missouri

The Bullet Train to November is on the move once again, and this time it shifts from a state marked by a mountain range that creates two separate political profiles to another that defines the spirit of America, one that lives up to its title as the Show-Me State...

MISSOURI

It is a state where urban and rural go together, where the Midwest meets the South, and where St. Louis marks the end of the East and Kansas City the start of the West. Once part of the Louisiana Purchase, the 1821 Missouri Compromise led to the admittance into the Union of Missouri as a "slave state". Missouri also served as a prominent point of interest for settlers headed out west to fulfill their Manifest Destiny. Like neighboring Tennessee, it shares the boundaries of eight states: Iowa to its north, Illinois to the east, Kentucky and Tennessee to its southeast, Arkansas to the south, Oklahoma to its southeast, Kansas to the west, and Nebraska at its northwestern corner.

Economically, Missouri sits right in the middle of the food chain on per capita personal income with a ranking of 26th and $32,707. The agricultural sector includes beef, soybeans, dairy and eggs, while its industrial sector includes chemicals, beer (Budweiser is produced here), transportation equipment, and light manufacturing, and two Federal Reserve Banks call Missouri home in Kansas City and St. Louis. Among the state's past and present notables: animators Walt Disney (Mickey Mouse) and Friz Freleng (Looney Tunes), actor Brad Pitt, composer Burt Bacharach, musicians Sheryl Crow, Scott Joplin, Michael McDonald and Sara Evans, rock and roll pioneer Chuck Berry, rapper Nelly, Baseball Hall of Famer Yogi Berra, and conservative commentator Rush Limbaugh.

No state defines the meaning of bellwether more than Missouri. Since 1904, it has voted in all but one case for the eventual President, with the lone exception being Adlai Stevenson's victory in 1956 against incumbent Dwight Eisenhower, who won another term nationally. Following the Civil War, it was a stronghold for conservative Democrats who at the time dominated the party, with Harry Truman being its most notable Democrat. As the GOP became more conservative as a whole, Republicans began to make gains, yet the state is not entirely safe for either party. The college town of Columbia, along with Kansas City and St. Louis provide Democrats with their base in the state, while many rural areas, such as those in the southwest (Springfield, Joplin and the tourist destination of Branson) and southeast (Cape Girardeau, Poplar Bluff) favor Republicans. And once again, Missouri will be up for grabs, with the Governor's Mansion in need of a new tenant, a House seat open because of the gubernatorial race, and another House race that has garnered attention.

District 1 (S-Factor 25.3 DEM): Lacy Clay represents Missouri's most Democratic district, situated in northern St. Louis and northern St. Louis County (Florissant, Maryland Heights). Clay will only face Libertarian nominee Robb Cunningham. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): This district, situated in the northern and western suburbs of St. Louis including Kirkwood, Chesterfield and St. Charles, has been represented by Todd Akin since 2000 when he succeeded then-gubernatorial candidate, eventual U.S. Senator, and 2006 Dem wave victim Jim Talent. His Democratic opponent will be former St. Louis School Board Member Bill Haas. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 7.8 DEM): Russ Carnahan, son of the late Governor Mel Carnahan, was first elected in 2004 by a nearly eight-point margin to succeed former House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt. Republicans are fielding mortgage broker Chris Sander in this district that encompasses southern St. Louis and some of its southern suburbs and rural areas. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 10.5 GOP): While a conservative district willing to vote Republican on paper, House Armed Services Committee Chair Ike Skelton has compiled a generally moderate-to-conservative Democrat record in his western Missouri district that includes suburbs of Kansas City and the capital city of Jefferson City. If Skelton retires, this will be a potential GOP pickup, but for now he is safe against businessman and Republican activist Jeff Parnell. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 12.0 DEM): When former Kansas City mayor Emanuel Cleaver first won this Kansas City-centric district in 2004, he won his seat with only 55 percent of the vote. However, Cleaver had an easier time in 2006 dispatching businessman Jacob Turk, who is once again the GOP nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 4.5 GOP): Since 2000, Sam Graves has represented a GOP-leaning district situated in northwestern Missouri, including north Kansas City, its northern and eastern suburbs, and the St. Joseph area. The Democrats have recruited a top-tier candidate in former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes. Already, Barnes has outraised Graves with $1.85 million and $962K cash on hand compared to $1.68 million and $936K for Graves. However, while a recent poll has shown Barnes gaining ground on Graves, the incumbent still leads by four points and holds a 20-point lead among independent voters. Graves is favored for now, but expect a very close race. Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 13.8 GOP): House Minority Whip Roy Blunt represents Missouri's most conservative district, situated in southwestern Missouri (Springfield, Joplin and Branson). Attorney Richard Monroe is the Democratic nominee. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 8 (S-Factor 10.5 GOP): Jo Ann Emerson represents a favorably Republican seat in southeastern Missouri (Cape Girardeau, Rolla and Poplar Bluff) and will be favored against Democrat Joe Allen. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 9 (S-Factor 6.0 GOP): Kenny Hulshof is the Republican nominee for Governor in 2008, leaving behind a Republican-leaning district situated in northeastern Missouri, including Kirksville, Hannibal, some St. Louis suburbs, and the college town of Columbia. Both parties had competitive primaries, with Republicans offering former State Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer and Democrats serving up State Representative Judy Baker. Baker has outraised Luetkemeyer, $535K to $467K, and barely leads in a recent Dem poll. However, the race currently favors Luetkemeyer for the moment, yet a Baker victory may not surprise anyone. Prediction: Leans GOP.

Next stop: Idaho.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXIII: Washington

Just last night, the Olympics in Beijing came to a close. With the competition now over, the focus shifts back to the political arena, starting with the Democrats' convention in Denver where Barack Obama will make history as the first major-party African-American nominee for the Oval Office. At the same time, the Nifty Fifty resumes and heads into the home stretch with the election fast approaching.

At last check, Texas marked the spot as the Lone Star State presented a handful of potential contests. Now, the Bullet Train to November (this is now an official slogan) is roaring once again, heading to a state that appears presidential in name, but serves as the hub of a major American region...

WASHINGTON

Named after George Washington, our first President, and the most northwestern of the contiguous 48 states, Washington is a tale of two states split by the Cascade Range. West of the Cascades, it is largely forested with an oceanic climate, largely urban (dominated by the Seattle metropolitan area) and densely populated. East of the range, it is more rural with a mostly dry climate, and contains some arid deserts though it does have its share of forests. Originally populated by unique clusters of Native Americans (known for their totem poles), Washington was eventually settled by various British, Spanish and American explorers and became the 42nd state of the Union on November 11, 1889.

Washington's economy is the 14th largest in terms of gross state product as of 2005, headlined by aircraft manufacturer Boeing and software developer Microsoft, along with tourism, mining, and wood products. Not to mention the fact that Starbucks coffee, Costco warehouse clubs, and Nordstrom department stores are all based in the state as well. But don't forget agriculture: since the 1920s, Washington has been America's leading apple producer, and holds the same title for red raspberries and hops (which are used in beer brewing and are derived from cannabis), among other crops. The state's tax system is regressive: the top 1 percent pay only 3.2% taxes; the bottom fifth a staggering 17.6%. And the world's second wealthiest man, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates ($59.2 billion) is from this state. Other notables who have laid claim to this state include his fellow co-founder Paul Allen, Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos, Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, conservative commentator Glenn Beck, television news pioneer Edward R. Murrow, pioneering rock guitarist Jimi Hendrix, smooth jazz musician Kenny G, Nirvana frontman Kurt Cobain, Soundgarden/Audioslave frontman Chris Cornell, Scary Movie actress Anna Faris, European travel expert Rick Steves, and comedic science educator Bill Nye (That's right, Bill Nye the Science Guy was syndicated on PBS from Seattle's KCTS, and I deeply recall watching his show back in the day).

Politically, the state tends to be moderately liberal, with Democrats holding two-thirds of the state's congressional delegation, the Governor's mansion, both Senate seats, and majorities in both chambers of the Washington State Legislature. All three of the state's major statewide positions, Governor and U.S. Senate (which of course is two seats), are held by women: Governor Christine Gregoire, and Senators Maria Cantwell and Patty Murray. A very close Governor's race did ensue in 2004, when Dino Rossi was barely ahead of Gregoire, albeit by a miniscule 261 votes. After two recounts were performed, Gregoire was elected Governor. This bitter fight will see the two battle again in 2008, along with a hotly contested congressional race in suburban Seattle, where Republicans once dominated the congressional delegation in 1994, and quickly squandered it leaving only one elephant in the Seattle metropolitan area.

District 1 (S-Factor 7.8 DEM): When former Congressman Jay Inslee (1993-1995 from Central Washington's 4th District) decided to return to Congress in 1998, this district situated in the northern Seattle suburbs around Puget Sound (Edmonds, Kirkland and Bainbridge Island) was largely a swing district. Now, Inslee, having won by increasingly larger margins, represents a more Democratic district going up against former Issaquah School Board President Larry Ishmael. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 3.0 DEM): This fairly competitive district sits at the top of Western Washington (Bellingham, Everett and the San Juan Islands) and has been represented by Rick Larsen since 2000, winning by close margins in his first two races and by more comfortable margins in 2004 and 2006. The Republicans are fielding former Snohomish County Sheriff Rick Bart, but fundraising has been lagging sharply: Bart has raised only around $10K compared to Larsen's $1.07 million. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 0.5 DEM): Meanwhile, the southern end of the moderately liberal western portion of the state takes in the state's suburbs of Portland, Oregon (including Vancouver) as well as the area around the state capital of Olympia. Brian Baird has held the district since 1998 and should have no trouble dispatching airline pilot Michael Delavar. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 12.5 GOP): Of the six Republican freshmen from the Evergreen State in 1994's historic class, only Doc Hastings remains of this group. While he has faced scrutiny in recent years due to his role in the controversy surrounding former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, his district is the state's most conservative, taking in the Yakima, Wenatchee and Pasco areas of central Washington, and he should be in no trouble against Democrat George Fearing. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 7.3 GOP): The 1994 elections were symbolic in this state for Washington Republicans, but no victory was more resounding than the narrow defeat of Speaker Tom Foley by George Nethercutt in this Eastern Washington dominated by Spokane and Walla Walla. After Nethercutt bolted to run for the U.S. Senate in 2004, State Representative Cathy McMorris stepped in. Now going by the name Cathy McMorris Rodgers, she is now a favorite for re-election against Mark Mays, a psychologist and attorney by trade. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 5.8 DEM): Tacoma and the Olympic Peninsula (Port Angeles) dominate the longtime domain of 16-term Democrat Norm Dicks. While it is somewhat competitive on paper, third-time Republican candidate Doug Cloud still can't seem to scratch the surface in what is largely a working-class district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 7 (S-Factor 29.3 DEM): While most of the Seattle districts are moderately competitive in nature, this district -- situated in the city of Seattle itself -- is overwhelmingly Democrat. Incumbent Jim McDermott took in 79 percent of the vote last time against internet marketer Steve Beren, who is running again. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 2.8 DEM): This is a competitive district that voted for Democrats at the presidential level in 2000 and 2004, and successively elected Republican former King County Sheriff Dave Reichert in 2004 and 2006, last time by a narrow margin against former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner. Burner, who helped create "A Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq" (a detailed Iraq War platform crafted and sponsored by several anti-war Democrat candidates), has outraised Reichert with $2.29 million to the latter's $1.62 million. A recent poll, however shows Reichert with a slight lead over Burner. This is a race worth watching in the suburbs (Bellevue, Mercer Island) and rural areas east of Seattle and Tacoma. Prediction: Tossup.

District 9 (S-Factor 5.8 DEM): This district stretches from such Seattle area suburbs as Renton and Federal Way clockwise to Olympia, and of the four Democratic seats that went Republican in 1994 but flipped back eventually, this was the first of the four: Adam Smith defeated religious conservative Randy Tate in 1996, and the 1st, 3rd (both in 1998) and 2nd (2000) districts followed. Smith has since turned what is a fairly competitive district on paper into a safe seat against businessman and software engineer James Postma. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Missouri.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXII: Texas

The Olympics have been keeping me away from this blog for quite some time. So far, Americans are neck-to-neck with China in the medal count, with China's count dominated by gold medals. Of course, the Olympics are not over yet, and many more medals will be awarded as time goes by.

Before the Olympics, the Nifty Fifty focused on Ohio, a state that has been widely regarded as a bellwether for the national political mood -- and the presidency. Now the trail shifts to a larger state, one very familiar to yours truly, a state that espouses the definition of "big" and proudly stands by its title as "The Lone Star State"...

TEXAS

NOTE: Because yours truly is a native of the Lone Star State, expect a very long musing here...

While it is considered part of the South, Texas is so large -- and diverse in many ways -- that Texas deserves to be considered a region to all its own. The state is at a crossroads between various geographical aspects of America -- with plains, deserts, forests, lakes, rivers and beaches all dispersed throughout the state alongside various other geographical features. Six flags have flown over the state -- Spain's Crown of Castile, France's Fleur-de-lis, Mexico, Texas (yes, it was once a country itself), the Confederacy, and the United States. If Texas were a country, it would be the seventh-largest producer of greenhouse gases in the world, and weather here is highly unpredictable, with a more arid climate in West Texas and humid subtropical weather along the Gulf of Mexico.

Ethnic and religious diversity is commonplace here, with nearly 36 percent of the state's population being of Hispanic descent, joined by a prosperous Asian-American community and a growing number of African-American college graduates. Texas is home to over 4.3 million Roman Catholics and around 400,000 Muslims, among other faith groups. Three quarters of Texans are located along the Texas Urban Triangle, bounded by Interstates 10, 35 and 45, and stretching from Houston to San Antonio to Dallas-Fort Worth.

Texas offers much meaning to the term "capital punishment"; over 400 executions have been performed here for the last 30 years. The state's economy is diverse, with agriculture (cotton, grapefruit), mining, banking, construction and energy (both traditional and renewable) industries amongst a wide array of business opportunities. ExxonMobil, AT&T, Kimberly-Clark, Blockbuster and Dell are just a sampling of numerous large corporations headquartered here, and Houston is home to NASA's Johnson Space Center, where Mission Control is located. Notable Texans, among many, include...

Actors Matthew McConaughey, and Tommy Lee Jones, actresses Eva Longoria Parker and Renée Zellweger, TV producer Aaron Spelling, South Park co-creator Matt Stone, directors Wes Anderson and Richard Linklater, comedian Bill Engvall, former pro wrestler Stone Cold Steve Austin, rock and roll pioneer Buddy Holly, musicians Robert Earl Keen, Kenny Rogers, Stevie Ray Vaughan, Beyoncé Knowles, and Don Henley, Bugs Bunny creator Tex Avery, seven-time Tour de France winner Lance Armstrong, champion boxer George Foreman, golfer Babe Didrikson Zaharias, Dell founder Michael Dell, legendary heart surgeons Michael DeBakey and Denton Cooley, oil field firefighter Red Adair, billionaire Howard Hughes, 1992 presidential candidate Ross Perot, 2006 gubernatorial candidate and self-proclaimed "Texas Jewboy" Kinky Friedman, televangelist Joel Osteen, and the rancher known sometimes as the 'father of the Texas Panhandle', Charles Goodnight. Not to mention journalists by the likes of Walter Cronkite, Dan Rather, Bob Schieffer, Sam Donaldson, Jim Lehrer, and a wide array of local TV news legends.

(I know, there are many, and that's just a tiny fraction of the whole list...)

Now, the real stuff...

Marked by a conservative flavor on both sides of the aisle, Texas was once a part of the Democrats' Solid South. One notable Texas Democrat (among many) is former President Lyndon B. Johnson, who assumed the presidency following the tragic November 22, 1963 assassination of John F. Kennedy in Dallas. As the President who signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964, LBJ stated "We have lost the South for a generation". This statement came back to haunt Democrats as their century-old dominance was broken in 1978 with the election of Governor Bill Clements. Now, the Governor's Mansion, both U.S. Senators, most of its congressional delegation, and the Texas Legislature are in the hands of the GOP. Our current commander-in-chief, George W. Bush, was himself the Governor at the turn of the century.

Texas' strong Republican voting tendencies are mostly concentrated in West Texas and in most suburban areas of Dallas and Houston, while Democrats dominate in urban areas such as southern Dallas County, the capital city of Austin, and in heavily Hispanic areas such as the Rio Grande Valley. The playing field is rather different this year with no major-party Texan at the top of the ticket (that includes Ross Perot since he was a vigorous third-party candidate in 1992 and 1996, the latter year of which was Texas-less in both parties) for the first time in many years. Last time that situation came up (in 1976), Jimmy Carter took Texas en route to winning the presidency. Republicans are favored to win Texas once again, but a perceived lack of enthusiasm for John McCain amongst the state's conservative electorate could create an opening for Barack Obama. Democrats are also waging a dark horse bid against incumbent Senator John Cornyn, while the GOP is setting sights on two congressional seats lost in the last election as Dems turn to dark horses for more gains in the state's congressional delegation.

This rundown will be a big one...here we go...

*Districts 15, 21, 23, 25 and 28 are based on the previous districts in the 109th Congress. The 23rd District was declared unconstitutional and resulted in a number of districts being redrawn.

NOTE: The rundown has been slightly updated as of August 17, 2008 for clarification purposes.

District 1 (S-Factor 17.3 GOP): This district covers much of East Texas, including the Tyler, Longview and Lufkin areas, and has been served by Republican Louie Gohmert since his 2004 defeat of Max Sandlin. While this district had been in the hands of Democrats from the Civil War until recently, Gohmert will not be facing Democratic opposition this year. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 11.8 GOP): Since Ted Poe's election to Congress in 2004 to this district based in the Democrat-leaning Beaumont area and heavily Republican northern and eastern suburbs of Houston (Baytown, Kingwood, Spring), he has become an outspoken advocate for border security, a crucial issue among voters in the 2008 election. The Democrats lost it in 2004, failed to capture it in 2006, and are not fielding anyone in 2008. And that's just the way it is (Poe's trademark closing). Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 16.8 GOP): Sam Johnson is one of the oldest members of Congress, coming from a district that covers northeastern Dallas and its fast-growing northern suburbs, including Plano, Garland, Richardson and McKinney. Democrats are fielding attorney Tom Daley. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 16.8 GOP): This is another heavily Republican North Texas (Frisco, Rockwall, Sherman, Paris, Texarkana) district currently held by a senior incumbent in 85-year-old Ralph Hall. 2006 nominee Glenn Melancon will try again. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 15.0 GOP): Eastern Dallas County, including Mesquite and part of Dallas, is part of a sprawling East Texas district that juts out southeast to Athens, Palestine and Jacksonville. The fiscally conservative incumbent, Jeb Hensarling is a safe bet for re-election. After all, he is only facing a Libertarian and a lesser-known independent. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 14.8 GOP): House Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Joe Barton has been safe in his sprawling Arlington-to-Crockett congressional seat which he has held in several incarnations since 1984 upon succeeding eventual U.S. Senator Phil Gramm. The Democrat in this race is educator Ludwig Otto. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 15.3 GOP): This district has a Republican history to it, electing eventual President George H.W. Bush and one-time House Ways and Means Committee chair Bill Archer to serve historically Republican west Houston, the Memorial Villages, and several western and northwestern suburban areas. And John Culberson has consistently been a safe bet, often winning by comfortable margins or better. The Democrats are looking to even the playing field, waging a competitive race here this year with wind energy executive Michael Skelly, who has outraised Culberson and has earned distinction as an "Emerging Candidate" by the D-Trip. Already, his ads have begun airing on local stations. Both men have their chops: Skelly's top-shelf credentials as a successful businessman and Culberson's breakthrough online presence during the GOP energy protest on Capitol Hill. Why is this race not in a more competitive situation? Culberson's victories have been aided by an army of grassroots supporters, which enabled him to defeat a more well-funded Republican in the 2000 primary, and polling shows Culberson ahead by double-digit margins. Unlike past cycles, this will be both a slugfest and a barn-burner. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 8 (S-Factor 19.3 GOP): This district stretches from The Woodlands and all of Monco (Montgomery County) eastward to Orange and all points north to Lake Livingston and Jasper. Kevin Brady is in very safe territory against non-profit executive Kent Hargett. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 9 (S-Factor 21.0 DEM): This heavily Democratic district covers southwest Houston and its South Side, as well as two eastern shavings of Fort Bend (northern Missouri City and Mission Bend) carried over from the pre-redistricting 25th. Al Green was first elected here in 2004 by knocking off the redistricted Chris Bell, whose ethics complaint related to the redistricting triggered the downfall of Tom DeLay and is now running for the State Senate after an impressive gubernatorial performance in 2006. Republicans won't be fielding anyone this time around. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 10 (S-Factor 12.8 GOP): This is another dark horse battle for Democrats. Incumbent Michael McCaul faced an underfunded Democrat and received 55% of the vote despite GOP leanings that normally would be higher in this district. The Democrats are fielding a competitive candidate in attorney and former TV courtroom judge Larry Joe Doherty (Texas Justice). While Doherty's fundraising is competitive, so is McCaul's, and it will be quite a struggle for any challenger to campaign in a gerrymandered district stretching from north Austin through rural areas situated along U.S. Highway 290 (Bastrop-Brenham-Hempstead) to northwest Harris County. In all honesty, this is a very difficult race to campaign in especially in a time when gas prices are beyond our reach. One thing does make the race competitive: McCaul's lead over Doherty in a recent poll is only 5.4 percent. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 11 (S-Factor 25.0 GOP): There will be no Democrat running in this very, very red seat that covers the core of Dubya's home base, situated in Midland, Odessa, San Angelo, Brownwood, and Burnet County. After all, Mike Conaway is representing Bush 43's strongest district from 2004. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 12 (S-Factor 14.0 GOP): Kay Granger is heavily favored to win another term in this district situated in western Fort Worth and several areas west of the city. Realtor Tracey Smith is the Democrat in this race. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 13 (S-Factor 24.3 GOP): Another strongly GOP seat here, this time based in Amarillo and Wichita Falls. The incumbent, Mac Thornberry has often won by comfortable margins since defeating Bill Sarpalius in the 1994 Republican Revolution. 2006 nominee and former intelligence officer Roger Waun is running again. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 14 (S-Factor 14.0 GOP): Ron Paul is definitive of a vastly underrated breed within the Republican conference: the libertarian Republican. Despite numerous primary and general challenges of notable vigor, Paul has achieved a cult following over the years and made headlines with his insurgent presidential campaign this year. His pioneering race has led to an army of libertarian Republican candidates in this year's election (as well as an ongoing national campaign for his political views), and Paul himself will win another term without a Democrat on the ballot this year. The district is situated in coastal Texas stretching from Victoria to Galveston, taking in Bay City, Lake Jackson, and several Houston suburbs along the way. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 15 (S-Factor 1.0 GOP*): This is a different district from what the S-Factor suggests due to the large Hispanic turnout for Bush in 2004 as well as the fact that this district was redrawn as a result of the fallout in the 23rd (see below). The result: Rubén Hinojosa now represents an elongated district stretching from Harlingen and McAllen in the south to Alice and Beeville further north. 2006 candidate Eddie Zamora is running again. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 16 (S-Factor 9.3 DEM): Silvestre Reyes, the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, has represented this El Paso-centric district since he was first elected in 1996. No Republican is running. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 17 (S-Factor 17.3 GOP): The irony about the home district of George W. Bush, stretching from Cleburne (south of Fort Worth) to Waco and Bryan-College Station, is that the representative is longstanding Democrat Chet Edwards. By crafting a centrist image, Edwards has managed to consistently win re-election to this district. Video production executive Rob Curnock is the Republican candidate. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 18 (S-Factor 23.5 DEM): This heavily Democratic seat, situated in inner city Houston, has historically sent African-American Democrats (and notable ones) to Congress since the 1972 election that sent to Congress Barbara Jordan, the role model of incumbent Sheila Jackson-Lee. Republicans will be fielding accountant John Faulk in what is a very difficult district for elephants. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 19 (S-Factor 24.8 GOP): Randy Neugebauer has been the standard-bearer for this Lubbock-to-Abilene district which almost looks as if it were split in two (Yes, redistricting made Texas' districts worse than Massachusetts' sorry excuses for what counts as congressional districts). This district shows no signs of shifting anytime soon, and public affairs consultant Dwight Fullingim will have an uphill battle here. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 20 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): San Antonio has long been the home base of the Gonzalez family for 48 years, starting with Henry Gonzalez in 1961 and continuing with his son, Charlie Gonzalez in 1999. The Republican candidate is Robert Litoff. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 21 (S-Factor 12.3 GOP*): This district connects north San Antonio to Austin via several areas in the Texas Hill Country. Longtime incumbent Lamar Smith, the ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee, will not be facing a Democrat this year. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 22 (S-Factor 14.3 GOP): None of the districts that turned blue in 2006 had a stranger reason to switch than this one as former congressman Tom DeLay's last-minute foibles ending up forcing Republicans to run a write-in bid for this seat, which enabled the Democrat, former Congressman Nick Lampson to pull off a 10-point victory. This year, it was no surprise that ten Republicans filed to run for this seat, and I had the privilege to campaign with one of them, former Sugar Land mayor Dean Hrbacek who finished fifth in the primary. The eventual primary winner, Pete Olson, is the former Chief of Staff to U.S. Senator John Cornyn. Olson finished second in Round 1, but went on to convincingly defeat former Congresswoman Shelley Sekula Gibbs with 69 percent of the vote in the runoff. Lampson has compiled a record that hardly reflects of his previous stint in a Beaumont-to-Galveston district, but Olson will be a stiff challenger to Lampson in a district stretching across the southern suburbs of Houston from Sugar Land and Rosenberg all the way to Pearland, Pasadena and the Clear Lake area. This is the marquee congressional race in America. Prediction: Tossup.

District 23 (S-Factor 12.8 GOP*): This district, stretching from just east of El Paso to Big Bend National Park, stretching all the way to western Bexar County and south San Antonio, was drawn up as the result of a ruling that struck down the previous 23rd which was seen as diluting Hispanic voting power. As a result, then-incumbent Henry Bonilla was forced into a more competitive situation, leading to his defeat by former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez. The Republicans had touted this seat as a significant pickup opportunity, but Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson will have to catch up in the fundraising department; Rodriguez leads Larson in total funds raised: $1.88 million to Larson's $535K. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 24 (S-Factor 15.0 GOP): This district is situated in the middle of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, taking in several suburbs including Carrollton, Irving, Southlake, Euless, Grand Prairie, Duncanville and Cedar Hill along the way. Incumbent Kenny Marchant will be favored to win another term against Democrat Tom Love. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 25 (S-Factor 13.8 DEM*): The S-Factor has also been rendered irrelevant here as well, as the district no longer resembles the "fajita strip" it was designed to look like. Instead, the district takes in Austin and rural areas to its south (San Marcos, Gonzales and La Grange). While it may look more competitive on paper, incumbent Lloyd Doggett is in no particular danger against environmental contractor George Morovich. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 26 (S-Factor 11.8 GOP): This Denton County-based seat, which also takes in Gainesville (north of Denton County) to its north and part of Fort Worth to its south, was once represented by former House Majority Leader Dick Armey. The incumbent, Michael Burgess continues this trend and will be heavily favored for another term against former congressional aide Ken Leach. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 27 (S-Factor 1.0 GOP): The district's Republican performance in 2004 belies the fact that the Corpus Christi/Brownsville district is heavily Hispanic and tends toward Democrats. The longtime incumbent, Solomon Ortiz, dean of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus will be favored for another term against his 2006 opponent, former Ingleside Mayor Willie Vaden. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 28 (S-Factor 0.8 DEM*): This is a different district from what the S-Factor suggests, but it still tends to vote for Democrats and is still situated in Laredo and stretching northward to the San Antonio suburbs. Incumbent Henry Cuellar, considered one of the more conservative Democrats, will be favored for another term against health care consultant Jim Fish. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 29 (S-Factor 7.8 DEM): While the 29th District was drawn to be a heavily Hispanic district situated in several northern and eastern areas of Houston (as well as some surrounding suburbs), its representative from the start has been Anglo Democrat Gene Green. However, Green has never faced strong opposition from either side of the aisle, and should easily win another term over repeat challenger Eric Story. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 30 (S-Factor 26.0 DEM): This is the most strongly Democratic district in Texas, covering inner city Dallas and most of its southern suburbs. The district's only representative since being created following the 1990 Census, Eddie Bernice Johnson, is strongly favored over IT manager Fred Wood. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 31 (S-Factor 16.3 GOP): This strongly conservative district, represented by John Carter since its creation in the 2000 Census, stretches from Stephenville in north central Texas to suburban Austin (including Round Rock) and also covers Temple, Killeen and the Fort Hood military base. Carter's Democratic opponent will be radio producer Brian Ruiz. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 32 (S-Factor 10.3 GOP): North Dallas and its surrounding suburbs, including the Park Cities (Highland Park and University Park) and largely Hispanic areas such as south Irving and Cockrell Hill make up the composition of this largely GOP district, where Pete Sessions has never broken 60% since the current district was created in the controversial 2003 redistricting, but has managed to post double-digit victories against fellow incumbent Martin Frost in 2004 and in 2006 against Dallas lawyer Will Pryor, whose cousin happens to be Arkansas Senator Mark Pryor. This time, the Democrats are fielding attorney Eric Roberson whose fundraising has been lightweight (a paltry $68K compared to Sessions' $1.28 million). Prediction: Solid GOP.

Next stop: Washington (the state).

The Olympics have come, America...

Right now, I am watching the opening ceremony here in the States. I understand that my slice of America (the Central Time Zone) is well behind the time in Beijing, but I understand that America's best and brightest athletes are there aiming to come back with the gold.

Best of luck to Team USA!

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXI: Ohio

Last time, it was a stroll along the state bearing the name of the Mississippi River. Now, the bullet train to November continues in a state that clearly represents America, one that calls itself "The Heart Of It All"...

OHIO

Admitted to the Union as the 17th State, and taking in transplants from most every other region in the country at the time, Ohio has given America eight presidents, and serves as a major economic bastion between the Northeast and Midwest. It was here in Ohio that the Wright Brothers (Orville and Wilbur) invented the airplane, hence the nickname "Birthplace of Aviation". Today, many items are produced and manufactured in the Buckeye State, including steel, processed foods, machines and their associated parts, and automobiles such as Jeeps. Agriculture plays a major role in the state's economy as a part of the Corn Belt, as does tourism with a wide array of recreational opportunities, historical sites, and a variety of landscapes, along with the Cedar Point and Kings Island amusement parks, its Amish community, and a medical tourism base in Cleveland. Sports is a common pastime in the state, with high school and college programs attracting enthusiastic fans and numerous national championships, the first openly all-professional team in the Cincinnati Red Stockings (founded in 1869), and the Pro Football Hall of Fame based in Canton, where the American Professional Football Association, forerunner to today's National Football League, was founded in 1920.

Ohio's contribution to politics in America can be attributed to its demographics. A mixture of urban, suburban and rural regions, combined with significant blue-collar and white-collar industries makes its 20 electoral votes very important to both parties. Only twice since 1892 has the winner of Ohio gone on to lose the presidential election as a whole. Northeastern Ohio (Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown) tends to vote for Democrats due to a significant union voter base, while northwestern Ohio (Toledo, Lima) tends to lean Republican, southwestern Ohio (Cincinnati, Dayton) favors the GOP, and southeastern Ohio's votes are dependent on the condition of the economy. This leaves a Republican-leaning central core in the Columbus area, with more Republicans in the suburbs and more Democrats in the capital city of Columbus itself. Until 2006, Republicans controlled many aspects of government here, including the Governor's Mansion and both Senate seats, even delivering George W. Bush his second term. However, a series of scandals surrounding former Governor Bob Taft, combined with a shaky economy in the state and the pickup of one House seat and the state's Class 1 Senate seat, have given Democrats a shot in the arm. While no gubernatorial or Senate races are taking place this year, a number of House seats have fallen into competitive territory that could shape the nature of the 111th Congress.

District 1 (S-Factor 0.3 GOP): The battle-tested Steve Chabot represents a competitive district situated in Cincinnati and some of its northern and western suburbs. Only twice has Chabot won by comfortable margins since first being elected in 1994, and this year will be no surprise as Democrats will try again with State House Minority Whip Steve Driehaus. The race is proving to be competitive, with polls showing either Chabot or Driehaus with the advantage. Fundraising is also a major factor with Chabot having raised $1.35 million and over $1.3 million in the bank, compared to Driehaus' $885K and $631K cash-on-hand. Another factor is present in the race due to the district's significant African-American population (27.5 percent) which could help Driehaus courtesy of Barack Obama. One Steve has the momentum and path to victory. The question is: which Steve? Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 13.0 GOP): Normally, this would be a safe district for the Republicans, stretching along the Ohio River from the Cincinnati suburbs to the Portsmouth area. After all, it is where Rob Portman served (and won by convincing margins) before entering the Bush Administration. However, the current representative, Jean Schmidt has ruffled some feathers within the local GOP establishment, and her relative weakness at the polls was exploited in a 2005 special election where Iraq War veteran and attorney Paul Hackett came close to a shocking upset. The 2006 candidate, physician Victoria Wulsin, had similar results against Schmidt and will be trying to knock off the incumbent once again. Wulsin has outraised Schmidt ($1.07 million to $855K), but Schmidt leads in cash on hand, albeit by a small margin ($393K to Wulsin's $378K). Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 2.8 GOP): The Dayton area and its nearby suburbs dominate this normally competitive seat, but former Dayton mayor Mike Turner has managed to fend off challenges from Democrats despite succeeding 23-year incumbent Tony Hall in 2003. Democrats targeted this seat in 2006 until its challenger dropped the ball and bailed out. The 2004 nominee, advertising executive and Democratic activist Jane Mitakides, is running again and an internal poll shows some favorability towards Mitakides' campaign. The cash coffers are a different story: Turner has nearly $1 million raised and close to $600K to hand, while Mitakides has raised $321K and has $130K cash on hand. While the rating could change on this race to a more competitive position, not enough evidence is present at this time to do so. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 13.3 GOP): When Mike Oxley exited Congress in 2006 after a long career that was marked by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, Jim Jordan stepped in to represent the voters of this rural northern Ohio district that stretches from Lima to Mansfield and all points in between. Given that the district is Ohio's most Republican, it is no surprise that Jordan will roll easily over union activist and steelworker Mike Carroll. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 9.8 GOP): Following the tragic death of Paul Gillmor in 2007, Bob Latta stepped in to represent this historically Republican Bowling Green- and Tiffin-centric district, just south of Toledo, that was once represented by his father Del Latta, from 1959 to 1989. While Latta faced 2006 candidate Robin Weirauch in the special election to replace Gillmor, a different Democrat will be challenging Latta in the general election in self-employed disc jockey George Mays. Latta will be heavily favored. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 0.8 DEM): This is a slightly competitive district on paper, but freshman incumbent Charlie Wilson, who serves an elongated district that stretches across the state's southeastern border from Athens and Marietta to just south of Youngstown, will not be facing a strong challenge. The Republican nominee is former Belmont County Sheriff Rich Stobbs. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 7 (S-Factor 5.8 GOP): This Republican-leaning district which cuts across south central Ohio (Springfield, Lancaster and suburban areas south of Columbus) is now open with longtime incumbent Dave Hobson calling it a career. State Senate Majority Whip Steve Austria will be favored to win over attorney Sharen Neuhardt and holds a more than 2-to-1 advantage in fundraising ($812K for Austria to Neuhardt's $363K), plus an even more proportional advantage in the bank ($361K compared to $108K for Neuhardt). Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 8 (S-Factor 12.3 GOP): This suburban Cincinnati and Dayton district is House Minority Leader John Boehner's district, and while most Republicans are facing long odds, Boehner is heavily favored to win another term over political organizer and Air Force veteran Nick von Stein. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 9 (S-Factor 9.0 DEM): This Toledo-to-Sandusky district situated on the Lake Erie shoreline should be piece of cake for longstanding incumbent Marcy Kaptur over steelworker Bradley Leavitt. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 10 (S-Factor 8.8 DEM): Much of western Cleveland and Cuyahoga County is situated in this district that 2008 presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich has served since 1996. While Kucinich faced a competitive primary due to Kucinich's focus on the presidential race, he should be favored over former State Representative Jim Trakas. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 11 (S-Factor 33.3 DEM): This staunchly Democratic district covers Cleveland's East Side and much of eastern Cuyahoga County, and Stephanie Tubbs Jones will be heavily favored for another term against engineer Thomas Pekarek. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 12 (S-Factor 0.5 GOP): While this appears to be a competitive district on paper, Pat Tiberi managed to fend off an insurgent challenge from former congressman Bob Shamansky in 2006. This time, Tiberi will face manufacturing executive David Robinson in this district situated in the wealthy Columbus suburbs (Dublin, Gahanna, Westerville) as well as the heavily African-American portion of the capital city itself. While Obama could be a factor here given the demographics, there have yet to be fireworks in this race. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 13 (S-Factor 7.0 DEM): Betty Sutton came to Congress in 2006 to replace newly minted U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown in a district that zigzags from Akron northward to southern Cuyahoga County and Lorain. Sales executive Dave Potter is the GOP nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 14 (S-Factor 1.8 GOP): While this district situated in the eastern suburbs of Cleveland appears to be competitive on paper, Steve LaTourette has proved otherwise, often winning by comfortable margins or better. Democrats argue that LaTourette is vulnerable and have united around former state appellate court judge Bill O'Neill. LaTourette leads the fundraising race with $1.15 million to O'Neill's $350K, even though some have billed O'Neill as a prime candidate. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 15 (S-Factor 0.8 GOP): Centrist Deborah Pryce is retiring from this swing district situated in downtown Columbus and its western suburbs, and Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy is the nominee once again after almost defeating Pryce in 2006. The Republicans are fielding State Senator Steve Stivers, who has polled competitively against Kilroy, though the latter is winning the fundraising battle with $1.56 million to Stivers' $1.22 million). Prediction: Tossup.

District 16 (S-Factor 3.5 GOP): Ralph Regula has been a stalwart in this GOP-leaning swing district situated in such towns as Canton, Wooster and Medina since 1973. His retirement has thrown this district into play for the Democrats. Both camps are fielding State Senators: Kirk Schuring on the Republican side, John Boccieri for the Democrats. An internal poll shows Schuring leading Boccieri by six points, while fundraising is relatively mixed with Schuring leading in individual donors ($701K over Boccieri's $534K) and Boccieri having more cash on hand ($531K vs. $349K for Schuring). This will go either way. Prediction: Tossup.

District 17 (S-Factor 14.5 DEM): This purely Democratic district is dominated by the cities of Youngstown, Kent and Warren. Incumbent Tim Ryan, a former staffer to the district's flamboyant previous officeholder, Jim Traficant, came to Congress in 2003 following the latter's conviction (and expulsion from Congress) due to racketeering and other allegations that landed him behind bars and prompted Ryan's candidacy. Ryan should be safe against teacher Duane Grassell. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 18 (S-Factor 6.3 GOP): Republicans have been targeting this seat in such towns as Zanesville, Chillicothe and New Philadelphia, all situated east of Columbus, west of the southeastern 6th district, and south of Canton. The reason: Republicans argue that Zack Space's double-digit victory in the district was a fluke. After all, Space's victory was in part the result of former Congressman Bob Ney's ties to Jack Abramoff that eventually led to Ney's resignation -- and sentence to prison, as well as reports of a business bankruptcy involving the emergency GOP candidate in 2006, State Senator Joy Padgett. The GOP is fielding former State Agriculture Director Fred Dailey, but fundraising numbers have been lagging for Dailey. Prediction: Favor DEM.

Next stop: Texas.