Oh come on, it's just a scarf!

Being a mainstream conservative (and a traditionalist Republican), it irks me as to how some people, especially those who endear themselves to the Vocal Fringe Parade, aim to portray even those whose decision to wear a certain article of clothing has nothing to do with anti-American attitude as exactly that - a sympathist to terrorism.

The latest assault from the Vocal Fringe comes in the form of a scarf that celebrity chef and daytime talker Rachael Ray wore in an advertisement for Dunkin' Donuts, the colorful donut chain out of New England. The scarf is black and white in color, and its design is hardly in the form of something a terrorist would wear. After all, it is a fringe scarf, so for the most part you could hardly even tell that it is symbolic of terrorism, as seen here.

But the Vocal Fringe, led by right-wing commentator Michelle Malkin, raised the red flag in her blog, arguing:

The keffiyeh, for the clueless, is the traditional scarf of Arab men that has come to symbolize murderous Palestinian jihad. Popularized by Yasser Arafat and a regular adornment of Muslim terrorists appearing in beheading and hostage-taking videos, the apparel has been mainstreamed by both ignorant (and not-so-ignorant) fashion designers, celebrities, and left-wing icons.

- Michelle Malkin

The result: Dunkin' Donuts drops the ball and cancels the ads. From what I can tell, entertainment and fashion reporters have scoffed, the general public was up in arms, and even the business community is sounding the alarm.

Ironically enough, Malkin is a DD fanatic who prefers their coffee to Starbucks, as evidenced by the numerous posts relating to the chain (including DD's immigration stance which ironically I support). Unfortunately, for me I cannot make a comparison between the two, for there are no Dunkin' Donuts shops in the Fort Bend area. In her blog, which can be seen here, she even goes as far as mentioning the daughter of John McCain and her use of a similar scarf.

Being a mainstream Republican, it very well disgusts me that a vocal handful of people with a lack of common sense want to bully a well-known food prophetess on the Food Network all for the purpose of scoring brownie points. In reality, all it does is turn off true, mainstream Republicans who believe in the sunny optimism, hope and common sense that icons such as Ronald Reagan and Abraham Lincoln greatly championed.

Republicans should not have to kiss up to religious bigots or fringe bloggers to promote the Party of Lincoln. What got Reagan elected by a landslide in 1984 was his appeal to the average American, who can come from a working-class background and drive a mid-sized car such as a Taurus, hail from an affluent suburb driving a Beamer or Volvo (yes, my great-aunt is living proof of a Volvo-driving conservative), or come from the country with a Ford F-150 with all the trimmings. Trust me, you just have to find them.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part VII: Michigan

In this election cycle, the top issue of most voters has nothing to do with the military and a series of actions that have generated considerable attention. It is not the ongoing debate over immigration, either (though it is still a top-tier issue). And it definitely has nothing to do with divisive social issues that aren’t even worth debating. Instead, the top issue of most Americans is one that resonates across every spectrum of political thought…(drum roll)…the ECONOMY. And in no other state is this problem more prevalent than in a state that has seen better days…

MICHIGAN

Originally settled by various Native American tribes (such as those of the Algonquian variety), French explorers settled here in the 1600s. Parts of the territory resided within Canada until 1818 when the border between the United States and Canada was set, splitting the oldest city in Michigan and also in the Canadian province of Ontario, Sault Ste. Marie. Growth was modest until the Erie Canal opened in 1825, which led to the entrance of Michigan into the United States on January 26, 1837. In 1854, the Republican Party was born in the town of Jackson.

In the last century, Michigan has evolved into the heart of the domestic automotive industry. Detroit once boasted a population of around 2 million, which has since been drastically reduced due to outward movement into its suburbs following World War II, as well as racial tensions and high crime. Michigan also has more lighthouses (150 to be specific) than any other state. Michigan’s counties are largely dominated by those with German ancestry, with the exception of some largely Dutch areas of Western Michigan, a large base of Finnish-Americans in the northwestern part of the Upper Peninsula, and an African American majority in Wayne County, home to Detroit. Michigan has the largest groups of inhabitants with Dutch, Finnish and Macedonian ancestry of any state.

Recently, the auto industry’s downsizing has affected Michigan, and Metro Detroit is now one of the worst housing markets in the country due to its population relocating in search of jobs, even though automotive companies such as General Motors have been resilient even in their worst shape. Michigan has also recently been a leader in corporate expansions as well, and its schools and institutes of higher learning rank among the best in the nation.

Michigan is a common swing state in presidential years, and John Kerry won this state in 2004. It also gave Ronald Reagan his winning electoral votes in the landslide of 1984. The Grand Rapids area (which gave us former President Gerald Ford), along with various other northern and western sections of Michigan vote Republican, while the cities of Detroit along with Flint, Ann Arbor and Saginaw tend to vote Democratic, leaving the rest of Michigan (such as the Lansing area and the suburbs of Metro Detroit) up for grabs. At least two House seats in Michigan are being targeted this year, and the far right's "win at all costs" attitude that for years has turned off traditional Republicans has something to do with it.

NOTE: The primary is on August 5, 2008. Predictions could change based on various circumstances.

District 1 (S-Factor 1.8 GOP): Bart Stupak has consistently won re-election to his district which takes in the Upper Peninsula (Marquette, Sault Ste Marie) as well as the “fingertips” of the mitten-shaped Lower Peninsula including Alpena. Three Republicans, State Representative Tom Casperson, Attorney Linda Goldthorpe (another activist of the Ron Paul variety), and retired businessman Don Hooper are all running to take on Stupak, who for the most part has been resilient in re-election due to his pro-life stance in a district which tends toward social conservatism especially gun issues. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 9.3 GOP): This district covers the coastal portions of heavily Dutch Western Michigan stretching from Cadillac on down to Muskegon and Holland. Pete Hoekstra, a Dutchman himself and the ranking member of the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, has won this solidly Republican district since he was first elected in 1992. The Democrat nominee is college professor Fred Johnson. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 8.8 GOP): The Grand Rapids area dominates this Republican district, which once spawned the late President Ford, and Vern Ehlers has held on to this district easily since first being elected to succeed deceased Congressman Paul Henry (who died of a brain tumor) in 1993, which is not surprising given the district’s traditional trend towards fiscally conservative, small government Republicanism. Ehlers’ Democrat challenger is Henry Sanchez, a retired communications worker. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 3.8 GOP): Since the 1970s, this Traverse City and Midland-based district has elected Republicans, and since 1992 Dave Camp has represented this Republican-leaning district. Attorney Andrew Concannon is the Democrat in waiting. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 12.0 DEM): The heavily Democratic 5th District covers the Flint area as well as Saginaw and Bay City, all making for a heavily Democratic district, which has benefited longtime incumbent Dale Kildee, the longest serving Michigander in Congress outside of Metro Detroit. The Republican candidate is teacher Matt Sawicki. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 2.3 GOP): The 6th District takes in the southwestern corner of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula, including Kalamazoo and Benton Harbor. Since 1992, the home of Whirlpool has been the domain of Fred Upton. Kalamazoo City Commissioner Don Cooney is running as the Democrat nominee, but has yet to tread water. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 2.3 GOP): This Southern Michigan district, home to Tony the Tiger and the beginnings of the Republican Party, and centered around Battle Creek and Jackson, has not been a competitive district in years. However, the defeat of moderate Republican Joe Schwarz by far-right Republican Tim Walberg has put this district in the crosshairs of the D-Trip. 2006 Democrat nominee Sharon Renier is running again, but a stronger donkey, State Senator Mark Schauer is aiming to take on Walberg, and has even outraised the freshman. Will Walberg’s incumbency and the district’s Republican lean save him? Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 8 (S-Factor 1.8 GOP): Michael J. Rogers (middle initial inserted to distinguish from a similar-named Congressman down in the South) had a relatively close 13-point victory margin in 2006 against Jim Marcinkowski. His district stretches from the Lansing area eastward to the northern fringes of Oakland County, which makes for a rather competitive district. The Democrats have been slow to nominate a candidate, though, and retired state health official Bob Alexander has so far generated little enthusiasm. Prediction: Solid GOP

District 9 (S-Factor 0.3 DEM): Despite what the S-Factor suggests, the 9th tends toward moderate Republicans (and Dubya ain’t one of them). It takes in the bulk of wealthy Oakland County including Farmington Hills, Troy, Waterford and Rochester Hills. And Joe Knollenberg has for the most part fit the mold of the district since his first election in 1992 when he succeeded longtime Republican Bill Broomfield. Still, with a poor GOP climate this year, it doesn’t stop the D-Trip from focusing on this seat, as evidenced by Knollenberg’s tiny margin in 2006 against Nancy Skinner. This time, the Democrats have recruited former Michigan Lottery commissioner Gary Peters to run for the seat. The race is now even more intriguing with the independent candidacy of “Dr. Death” – Jack Kevorkian. Right now, Knollenberg is preferred, but with the Donkey Brigade aiming to tie even the most moderate of Republicans to an unpopular president, anything can happen in this district, and you can thank the vocal minority of far-right extremists for its recent shift many years ago. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 10 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): Most of the Thumb region is contained within this district, though a few parts of Metro Detroit, such as northern Macomb County, once known as a bastion of “Reagan Democrats”, but has now become an increasingly white-collar, Republican area. Blue-collar currents still exist particularly in Port Huron, though, and Candice Miller has consistently done well since her first election in 2002. The Democrats are once again fielding 2006 nominee Robert Denison. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 11 (S-Factor 0.8 GOP): Thaddeus McCotter has risen rather quickly since his first election in 2002 to this district which covers southwest Oakland County (including Novi), and northwest Wayne County (Westland, Livonia). McCotter has since played lead guitar in a congressional band, is a regular guest on Dennis Miller’s radio show, and now chairs the House Republican Policy Committee. Former Novi City Manager Ed Kriewall and attorney Joseph Larkin are the Democrat nominees, but neither has been able to catch up to McCotter despite the fact that his district is fairly competitive especially in the Wayne County portion. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 12 (S-Factor 12.8 DEM): While the suburbs of Metro Detroit are not technically Democratic, the most Democratic portions of Oakland (Southfield, Royal Oak, Ferndale) and Macomb (Clinton, St. Clair Shores, Warren) counties are stuffed into this district. Sander Levin has consistently won re-election to this district, and this year should be no different as Levin, whose younger brother Carl is up for re-election to the Senate this year, should expect to return to Congress over home health care executive Bert Copple. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 13 (S-Factor 32.3 DEM): This is a very heavily Democratic district based on Detroit’s east side which gave John Kerry 93 percent of the vote, but also including River Rouge, Harper Woods, Wyandotte and the Grosse Pointe suburbs. It has faced a multitude of setbacks over the years but has since started to roar back. Congressional Black Caucus chair Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick has held the seat since 1996 and won practically unopposed in 2006. In 2008, she is facing two primary challengers, State Senator Martha Scott and former State Representative Mary Waters, largely as a result of controversy surrounding her son, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick who has been hammered with a host of ethical and legal challenges. Regardless, expect the Democrat to prevail in November over Republican Edward Gubics. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 14 (S-Factor 33.5 DEM): The 14th is a tad bluer than the 13th to its east, taking in the western part of Detroit but also the heavily Arab city of Dearborn, and has been the exclusive domain of Judiciary Committee chair John Conyers since he was first elected in 1965. The GOP isn’t even fielding anyone. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 15 (S-Factor 12.8 DEM): Heavily Democratic in nature, the district is a combo of blue-collar voters in Wayne County (Romulus, Inkster), academics in Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti, and farmers in the rest of southeastern Michigan (Monroe County). For three generations, the Dingell family has dominated the district’s politics, and the Dean of the House, John Dingell, has been here since 1955 when he succeeded his deceased father. The chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Dingell’s biennial introduction of a national health insurance bill, avid support for gun rights, and defense of Detroit’s automotive industry will carry Dingell into yet another term over Republican candidate Jack Lynch. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Michigan is quite a state, nonetheless. And there is still a long way to go.

Next stop: Colorado.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part VI: Virginia

While Memorial Day is seen as a time of rest and relaxation (and a time of events most people would rather forget), we should all know that Memorial Day is celebrated to honor the men and women of our Armed Forces who gave their lives for the betterment of our great country. As we honor our veterans on this day, the Nifty Fifty continues with the one state that, while it was not the first admitted to the Union, marked the beginning of America over four centuries ago...

VIRGINIA

On May 13, 1607, Christopher Newport and John Smith founded Jamestown, marking the beginning of what eventually became known as the United States of America. By 1698, the capital moved to Williamsburg. And in 1776, as America declared independence, Thomas Jefferson drafted a constitution that declared Virginia's independence from the British Empire. Jefferson's concerns about an attack on Williamsburg eventually led to the relocation of the capital to Richmond, where it sits today. Richmond later served as the capitol of the Confederate States of America when Virginia seceded from the union in 1861. In 1971, over a century after the days of Reconstruction and Jim Crow had passed, the constitution was rewritten, and in 1990, Doug Wilder became Virginia's first African American governor.

The Mother of Presidents, Virginia has also spawned many states to its west, including West Virginia. The state consists of 39 independent cities as well as 95 counties holding jurisdiction over all of the state's incorporated towns and unincorporated communities. Virginia also has some of the nation's strongest public schools and institutes of higher learning, including the University of Virginia and Virginia Tech, and can boast of the largest non-Russian Fabergé egg collection, as well as musicians Patsy Cline, Jason Mraz, Dave Matthews, Ella Fitzgerald and Bruce Hornsby, among others. It is also home to a diverse economy, hosting military installations, defense contracting, coal mining, agriculture (i.e. tobacco, peanuts), wineries, and technology (computer chips are its top export). Televangelists by the likes of Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson have also hailed from this state. Not to mention the quintessential political analyst, Larry Sabato.

While traditionally a conservative state, Virginia has emerged as a political battleground in recent election cycles, and 2008 may be the most intriguing one for the Old Dominion. Besides being projected to do well in the central and southern parts of the state, the Hampton Roads area is home to many military families that could aid John McCain's chances, while the Black Belt Region will look to be a major focal point for Barack Obama along with the college towns of Charlottesville and Blacksburg. The coal miners in Southwest Virginia are also a potential voting bloc that could base their decisions on a weakened economy (but have questions about Obama's background and McCain's independent streak). However, the focal point of the race will be the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., which have shifted more to the Democrats (and Obama) due to the state GOP's alarming drift towards social conservatism but could swing towards the maverick McCain.

With Virginia having elected Democratic Governors to Richmond the last two times (there is a one-term limit here), popular former Governor Mark Warner seeking the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the unrelated John Warner, and control of the State Senate now in the Democrats' clutch, the stakes could not have been higher for the Republicans, where at least one congressional seat (and as many as four) could be in play...

NOTE: The primary is on June 10, 2008. Predictions could change based on various circumstances.

District 1 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): This district stretches across the Eastern Shore of the state from the suburbs of Washington, D.C. (Fredericksburg, parts of Fauquier and Prince William counties) down southward to Williamsburg and Poquoson. Rob Wittman took this seat in 2007 after fellow Republican and incumbent Jo Ann Davis died of breast cancer. The Democrats have nominated physician and farmer Keith Hummel, who was selected at a party convention in Williamsburg. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 5.5 GOP): Thelma Drake survived by the skin of her teeth in 2006 against Democrat Phil Kellam, the Revenue Commissioner in Virginia Beach, which along with Norfolk and the Commonwealth's share of the Delmarva Peninsula comprise the district. While Governor Tim Kaine carried this seat, John Kerry and Jim Webb did not. Drake is being targeted again, this time with former U.S. diplomat Glenn Nye, but with McCain expected to draw some support (as mentioned above) from Hampton Roads' military community, it could be a cakewalk for Drake. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 18.5 DEM): One common characteristic of most Southern states is a district drawn to contain a significant African-American base, and Bobby Scott's district is no exception. Scott has held the seat since 1993, which covers at least parts of Norfolk, Richmond, Newport News, Hampton and Portsmouth, as well as some surrounding counties. It has not been in play for a long time and will stay that way. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): Like Rob Wittman, Randy Forbes came to Washington on a post mortem vacancy, as he succeeded the late Norman Sisisky in 2001. Software designer Andrea Miller is running as the Democrat, but Forbes should be assured in his district which stretches in a counterclockwise direction from just south of Richmond on down to Chesapeake and Suffolk. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 5.0 GOP): Virgil Goode has been a man of three trades: a Democrat in the 90s, an independent afterwards, and nearly a year after 9/11 a Republican. While this district (which covers southern Virginia and Charlottesville) generally should not be in play, attorney and non-profit guru Tom Perriello is looking to change that. Perriello is benefitting from outpacing Goode in the fundraising department ($640K compared to Goode's $438K), the fact that Tim Kaine barely won the district, and Goode's recent slipup when he addressed concerns regarding Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison's use of a Qur'an (he is Muslim) in his swearing-in ceremony. But Perriello faces tough odds against Goode, whose social conservatism and populist tendencies have kept the latter in the safe column. The question is: will Perriello make enough of an effort to put the seat in play? Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 10.8 GOP): Bob Goodlatte, whose district covers Roanoke and Harrisonburg among other areas, has consistently won re-election since first being elected in 1992. Goodlatte should be safe against businessman Sam Rasoul. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 10.3 GOP): Eric Cantor is a person of importance within the GOP, as both the chief Deputy Republican Whip and the only Jewish Republican. His district covers the west end of Richmond, most of the capital city's suburbs and a significant share of the Shenandoah Valley, and Cantor should cruise to victory over Culpeper County Democrat Chair Anita Hartke. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 8 (S-Factor 13.8 DEM): With the exception of Bobby Scott's 3rd district, this is the most Democratic district in Virginia. It covers many of the bluest parts of Northern Virginia; places such as Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church and Reston come to mind. The quirky Jim Moran has been known for his brand of Democrat politics, which is somewhat populist, sometimes bizarre especially for a relatively urban-suburban district. A primary challenger exists in attorney Matt Famiglietti, and Republicans have fielded a warm-blooded, albeit longshot pair of candidates: banker Mark Ellmore and businessman Amit Singh. Both are party activists, with Singh of the Ron Paul variety. Still, in a district this blue, Moran should prevail. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 6.5 GOP): Since 1982, Rick Boucher has consistently won re-election to his southwest Virginia seat which is also the poorest in the state. And once again, barring a last minute fielding, Boucher won't have to worry about a Republican challenge. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 10 (S-Factor 5.0 GOP): Frank Wolf has always been a lock for re-election since he first came here in 1980, but in 2006 he received a scare from Georgetown Public Policy Institute Dean Judy Feder. Feder is running again, and is joined by retired Air Force officer Mike Turner in the Democratic primary. Financial analyst Vern McKinley is running against Wolf in the GOP primary. Wolf survived a bad GOP year as he did in 2006, but will 2008 be another deviation from the usual or another easy victory? Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 11 (S-Factor 0.5 GOP): There are a number of seats in play here in Virginia, but none more so than this district, the wealthiest in America a top pickup opportunity for the Democrats. Tom Davis, known as a walking bible amongst Republican campaign strategists, is a political fixture in Northern Virginia in spite of a number of irregularities. But a Democratic uprising here, which costs Davis' wife her State Senate seat last year, ended George Allen's Senate career in 2006 (when Davis scored 55% against Democrat Andrew Hurst), and gave Tim Kaine the governorship in 2005, will likely turn the seat blue this year (not to mention the fact that the Virginia GOP is somewhat too stubborn to talk about more realistic issues other than those of the religious right). Throw in Mark Warner's Senate candidacy and the battle lines are drawn. Four Democrats have filed to run, but the nomination battle is set between Fairfax County Chairman Gerry Connolly and Davis' predecessor in Congress, Leslie Byrne. Not all is lost for the Republicans, though with home inspection executive Keith Fimian raising close to one million dollars, enough to keep up with the Democrats. No matter how much the Democrats gain this year, this seat is still anyone's guess. Prediction: Tossup.

Next stop: Michigan.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part V: Alaska

Last time, New Hampshire was on the radar screen as I pondered the potential of its two congressional seats, which the GOP is trying to take back in a state that historically is its own. Now we go to another state, one that is big in size but small in power yet at the forefront of the Republicans' own problems...

ALASKA

The second-to-last state in the union, and one that gave proud Texans heartburn when it became a state in 1959, Alaska is the largest state in the union. It has more coastline than the entire remainder of the country, and its capital is inaccessible by means of motor vehicles (Hint: you have to practically go swimming to get to Juneau). The bulk of the state's population is centered in the middle of the state's southern tier around Anchorage, while the northern part of the state, the Alaskan Bush (home to America's northernmost city of Barrow) is home to hundreds of native villages.

There are many good things about Alaska, such as salmon fisheries, Iditarod, and its amazing scenery. And there are many bad things, such as volcanoes on the Aleutian Islands, the Good Friday Earthquake that devastated many villages in the state, and the Exxon Valdez spill.

Then there's the bizarre (and at times, quirky) nature of its politics. Granted, it is a heavily Republican state, but it also has a strong libertarian streak. A strong secession movement, the Alaskan Independence Party resides here, and over half of registered voters here are undeclared. All of Alaska's congressional officeholders are Republicans. One of them, Ted Stevens, is up for re-election and current prospects are not that bright with corruption allegations enveloping the longtime senator, given his longstanding support of pork projects (remember the Bridges to Nowhere?). His plan to restrict web access in public schools and libraries, a position consistent with the far-right extremist minority, has also generated news, though not as much as the Bridges.

Luckily, Stevens is in the Senate, so I will not go further on him in the Nifty Fifty. But there are issues abound with "Alaska's third Senator"...

NOTE: Filing has not closed yet, If any significant developments come up I will let you know.

At-Large (S-Factor 12.5 GOP) Alaska's Republican dominance is in jeopardy, despite Governor Sarah Palin's well-deserved, much-needed reforms of a bloated state government (not to mention her attractiveness, she was once a beauty queen) and very high approval ratings (almost to the 90s). Don Young, the state's only congressman since 1973, has increasingly become a liability due to some of his recent stances, particularly in regards to the earmark process that has now become a focal point of debate among House Republicans.

While not a far-right congressman (he often has crossed party lines mostly on labor issues), Young's recent missteps have become a laundry list of sorts, including around half a billion dollars invested in two bridges (one of which would have borne his name), blasting a fiscally conservative Republican, New Jersey's Scott Garrett, for attempting to remove a piece of pork (and then blaming him and his fellow fiscal conservatives for the party's loss of control, even blasting Garrett's home state in the process), has been linked to Jack Abramoff, rudely scoffed at John McCain's request that Young give up some of his earmarks to help Hurricane Katrina victims, earmarked an interchange in Florida that Young claimed was endorsed by Congressman Connie Mack (who along with other Republicans in Mack's district opposed it), and is now under criminal investigation for bribery allegations involving VECO, an Alaska corporation accused of bribing Alaska state legislators. Already, Young has racked up $250,000 in legal fees pertaining to the VECO matter, and has done nothing more than contribute many reasons why we have a do-nothing Congress, and why Republicans are faced with the possibility of losing truckloads of seats this year.

Young is seen as vulnerable, with polls showing Young trailing former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz. Young's 2006 challenger, Diane Benson is also running again, but I expect the latter to defer to Berkowitz. On the Republican side, State Representative Gabrielle LeDoux and Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell are challenging Young. Parnell, with the endorsement of Governor Palin and the National Review is considered the stronger of the two, and will look to take out Young, a possibility that is becoming increasingly likely with each passing day. Alaskans will take three routes: stick with experience (Young, a route that is least likely), replace him with a rookie in the minority (Parnell), or replace him with a majority party newbie (Berkowitz). The question is: which one? Prediction: Tossup.

Next stop: Virginia (Finally, a big state).

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part IV: New Hampshire

After a four-day recess, and a look at Nevada, where one congressional seat had gone between being in play, then not in play, and within a day back in play again, our next trip take us to the most conservative state in the Northeast...

NEW HAMPSHIRE

The ninth state to enter the union, New Hampshire is known for its motto, "Live Free or Die", a testament to the state's libertarian livelihood. It offers up a host of activities, from auto racing to skiing to fall foliage, throughout the state. It was once the home of the Old Man of the Mountain until an unexpected turn of events led to the collapse of the famed formation. It is predominantly rural in the north and more suburban in the south, the latter the result of its positioning in the Boston area (which I'll explain later). The state's lake region hosts a variety of summer camps, and during ski season there are more miles of snowmobile trails in the state than there are roads. New Hampshire can also boast some firsts: the world's first publicly-funded library, the first forestry conservation organization, the birth state of Tupperware, the first American in space (Alan Shepard), and the first state lottery in the modern era. It also gave us Christa McAuliffe, the first teacher in space who tragically perished in the Challenger disaster of 1986.

Politically, it is as mentioned above, libertarian. The Free State Project is based here in New Hampshire. The fourth-largest legislative body in the English francophone world, can be found here in the New Hampshire House of Representatives, and members only get paid at least $100 a year. Local control is the norm here, as cities and towns can set as many rules as they want, while the state keeps government influence to a bare minimum and imposes no state income or sales taxes. The roots of the Republican Party can be traced to Exeter in 1853, but what was once a safe bet for the GOP is now a swing state, as George W. Bush could not hold on to the Granite State in 2004 as he did in 2000 (Then again, W's politics are not reflective of the Republican establishment here). 2006 was a nightmarish year for New Hampshire Republicans who lost the state's two congressional seats, control of the General Court (both the State House and State Senate), and gave Democrat Governor John Lynch a 3-to-1 landslide. Now Republicans, hoping to ride on John McCain's relatively libertarian streak, hope to take back the two seats it squandered.

NOTE: Filing has not closed yet, If any significant developments come up I will let you know.

District 1 (S-Factor 0.0) This is the most conservative congressional district in all of New England, and it is a politically marginal one as well. But it still fell to the Democrats, albeit in the most surprising manner as many pundits did not even expect Jeb Bradley to lose to anti-war activist Carol Shea-Porter. In fact, Shea-Porter wasn't even the establishment candidate as the Democratic nomination was supposed to go to State House Democrat Leader Jim Craig who ended up getting 34% of the vote in the primary compared to Shea-Porter's 54%. The district covers the Manchester area in the south and east central parts of the state such as Laconia in the north. Bradley is looking to take back the seat, and will look to give Shea-Porter a pure fight, especially now that Shea-Porter has the incumbency handicap. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 3.0 DEM) Unlike Shea-Porter, Paul Hodes had an easier time dispatching incumbent Charlie Bass, who has thus far ruled out a rematch. Hodes' district takes in a significant chunk of the North Country as well as the capital city of Concord and the high-tech Boston exurbs (including Nashua) that had been shifting blue in recent years. With John McCain the presumptive Republican nominee, though, Hodes is not necessarily a safe bet for re-election despite being elected the President of the Democratic Freshman Class of 2006, serving in a somewhat blue district, and raising a massive warchest (to the tune of $1.3 million in donations). State Senator Bob Clegg and radio talker Jennifer Horn appear to be the leading candidates, but funding figures have lagged for the two as of last March. Prediction: Favor DEM.

Next stop: Alaska (I know, another little state, but it's one with big implications).

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part III: Nevada

In our last stop, we encountered yet another state where only one House district can be found (first Wyoming, then South Dakota). But now, we are ready to go to a state known for Lady Luck, rapid growth, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid...

NEVADA

It is one of the, if not, fastest growing states in America. Nevada's economy is dominated by tourism, from skiing at Lake Tahoe to extravagant tourist resorts in Las Vegas, though in rural areas, mining and cattle ranching take significance. As for taxes, there are no personal income taxes and no corporate income taxes. Drive-thru marriages and divorces are common as well. To top it off, forming a corporation in Nevada is relatively piece of cake. In short, Nevada is a state with extensive libertarian principles (not drug laws such as those pertaining to marijuana, though).

Nevada is a reliable swing state in presidential elections. Neither party holds control of the Silver State, and it voted for Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, every time each of the three got a chance. The Democrats, however are aiming to take control of the state's congressional delegation in 2008, and the focus will be on making the fourth time a charm in one district.

District 1 (S-Factor 9.3 DEM) Shelley Berkley has had no trouble winning this seat since she first won it in 1998. At that time, it covered the bulk of the Las Vegas metropolitan area. Since then, Nevada gained a third seat which reduced the Democrat's district to Sin City itself and a few surrounding areas. Three Republicans have filed to run, but the odds are no easier than somewhere in the arena of 250-1 for any of the three. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 7.5 GOP) Former Nevada Secretary of State Dean Heller snagged this Reno-centric district last year with 50% of the vote over state university regent Jill Derby, who is gunning for this seat once again. While all three of Nevada's district are the same size, the Second swamps almost the entire state, cutting into parts of Clark County and taking in every other county, and consistently votes Republican. Heller should be a fine bet for re-election, but with the GOP in a rocky situation, it's anyone's guess and Derby may pull off a winning bet. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 1.3 DEM) Jon Porter has never had an easy race in his suburban Las Vegas surroundings, in a district designed to be balanced between the two parties. His loss in 2000 to Shelley Berkley (see above) was a harbinger for his 2002 victory and subsequent wins in 2004 and 2006. In the latter re-election bid, Porter barely defeated Tessa Hafen by a meager one-percent margin. This year, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee went on a scavenger hunt to find the perfect candidate to take on Porter. They initially settled on Robert Daskas, a former Clark County prosecutor who became a top candidate amongst challengers to incumbent Republicans. The good news is Daskas later dropped out of the race, giving Porter a glimmer of hope. The bad news: the Democrats have brought in 2006 gubernatorial candidate and former State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus. Now this race is anyone's guess, with the initial edge favoring Porter but an eventual outcome even more cloudy given the specter of the foreclosure crisis which has enveloped the Las Vegas metro area. Prediction: Tossup.

Next stop: New Hampshire.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part II: South Dakota

Last time, we went to a state that gave us America's first national park, Wyoming, where a relatively competitive (for now) House race is ongoing. Speaking of national parks, we will now go to a state where the main attraction is the nickname of the state...

SOUTH DAKOTA

The official nickname of this heavily rural state at the confluence of the Great Plains and the Midwest is The Mount Rushmore State, a reference to the famous namesake landmark that boasts the faces of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Teddy Roosevelt, and Abraham Lincoln. Agriculture is the dominant cash cow in this state, which explains recent efforts to diversify its economy to keep residents from leaving the state in search of a job, I speak of "rural flight". With free land and tax breaks, South Dakota is pulling out all the stops to stem the bleeding.

1978 was the last time a governorship went to a Democrat in South Dakota. That explains the state's heavy preference towards Republicans (generally ones with considerable crossover appeal such as Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, but not as much so for more moderate elephants such as the elder George Bush and Richard Nixon). But it is also a state where Democrats can have one bragging right: the only House seat in this small state.

At-Large (S-Factor 9.5 GOP) As if the Democrats' recent gains in special elections weren't bad enough for Republicans, this is not the first time such a scenario has happened. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin won South Dakota's lone congressional seat in a 2004 special election triggered by the resignation of Bill Janklow, a popular Governor who fell from grace after his conviction of manslaughter in the death of a motorcyclist in a traffic collision. Since then, with NRA endorsements, Blue Dog traits and a focus on Native Americans in a state with a significant presence of indian tribes, Herseth Sandlin has won over voters in this conservative state. But her electoral success goes well beyond her work in Washington on behalf of the people of South Dakota. She comes from a very political family (her grandfather was a former Governor) and her husband is none other than former Congressman Max Sandlin of Texas' 1st Congressional District.

The Republicans will most likely have a shot for this seat in 2010 when the Governor's Mansion is up again (and Herseth Sandlin is a potential suitor for the seat). But until then, Herseth Sandlin won't be going anywhere. Attorney Chris Lien is the Republican nominee, but barring a surprise slip of the tongue, you can expect nothing more but a very, very distant dark horse bid out of Lien, and definitely no NRCC help. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Nevada, where the odds have weaved in and out for one incumbent.

Well you know, we're in deep ____

As if the last two embarrassments weren't bad enough, last night was even worse for the Republican Party, which is still trying to shake off its perception as a party of war, far-right extremism and greed (ideals the majority of Republicans do not, have never, and will never share), and overcome Howard Dean's false myth of the GOP as a "white, Christian party" (more on that later).

In Mississippi, in the heavily Republican 1st District centered in the northern part of the state, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis, who normally would have been a sure shot to win the vacant seat of newly minted U.S. Senator Roger Wicker, ended up squandering his opportunity to Travis Childers, a Democrat chancery clerk in rural Prentiss County. The margin, 54 to 46, was a somewhat significant improvement over Childers 1-percent plurality in the first leg of the special election.

Given that nibblet of more bad news for a party that to my own disbelief can't seem to shake off hardcore lobbyists, distance themselves from the religious right, or keep its pants zipped, many would wonder if this will be another 1974 for the GOP. Sure, Republican strategists will call it a horrible year with Barack Obama drifting closer to the White House, but in my opinion, it is really a good year for Republicans such as myself for four reasons:

1. The Democrats campaigned to the right - Travis Childers is a conservative, meat-and-potatoes Democrat in a district that for decades was home to Jamie Whitten (and fell to Wicker in the Republican Revolution when Whitten retired). Had the Democrat been a wee bit more closer to the party's base, a Republican would hold the seat now. Childers and Davis ran strong campaigns in their parties' respective primaries, and both parties used extensive resources (i.e. Dick Cheney at a Davis rally) to promote their parties' principles.

2. The playbook of Freedom's Watch - Just like in Baton Rouge with Don Cazayoux's victory over Woody Jenkins in Louisiana's 6th District last year, Freedom's Watch, an advocacy front for the War on Terror, shot itself in the foot once again just as it did in Louisiana. The group tried to paint Childers as a hardcore liberal (which Childers shrugged off) and ended up getting booted by one local television station that aired an ad the group produced, for the ad broke the golden rule of a "clean campaign": never sling mud no matter much you crave for the golden calf of victory. Ironically enough, the station happened to be Memphis' Fox affiliate, WHBQ. The organization's marketing did work, though, in Ohio's 5th district, where Bob Latta benefited over Democrat Robin Weirauch, (who unlike Cazayoux and Childers was not a conservative in any way, shape or form but rather a union-vote, lunch-pail Democrat).

3. Opposites attracted - Just like Bill Foster gained the conservative Chicago Tribune's endorsement and Jim Oberweis, that of the liberal Sun-Times' in Illinois' 14th district (which Foster snagged), Childers was painted as the tax cutter and Davis, the tax hiker. When comparing apples to oranges, one common goal of Republicans is to promote fiscal conservatism. However, Childers himself was the one with the pro-growth record whereas Davis was nagged by Childers for raising taxes.

4. The district is conservative, but not overly so - As explained by Jamie Whitten's longstanding tenure in a conservative district, and the prominence of conservative Democrats in the South, it is not a vastly Republican district. But don't get me wrong, this is a red district, and Childers would in the foreseeable future be a target for the GOP. But unlike my district back in Texas which registers a heavily GOP S-Factor in the double digits, Mississippi's 1st has an S-Factor of only 9.5 GOP. Given that, if Childers reneges on his promises, Davis may have a shot to win the seat after all in November. And there are a great many Republicans in bluer districts who are sure shots for re-election this November.

In all, Republicans are not facing 4th and 20, but rather I see a new day coming to the Republican Party. The days of flaunt, extremism and what matters to Washington over common sense, decency and what matters to America are coming to an end. Come 2010, which I predict will be a year of bipartisanship, fresh faces, and new beginnings, and the Republican Party will look nothing like your father's Oldsmobile.

Ron Stone (1936-2008)

Anyone who has a significant stake in Greater Houston, especially those who are native Houstonians such as yours truly can tell you of the prominence of an anchor named Ron Stone, who for 20 years graced the anchor desk at KPRC-TV (Channel 2/NBC), retiring in 1992 just as I was starting kindergarten. On Tuesday, Stone lost his battle with prostate cancer at the age of 72.

Granted, Stone was not a native Houstonian, for he was born north of the Red River in Oklahoma. But former CBS News anchorman Dan Rather later discovered Stone and brought him to KHOU-TV (Channel 11/CBS), where Rather was at the time the lead anchorman. Stone later succeeded Rather, went to a writing gig at NBC in 1967, and came back to Channel 11 a year later in 1968 before jumping ship to Channel 2 in 1972, and pairing with weatherman Doug Johnson and sportscaster Ron Franklin, who formed a dynamic trio at KPRC in the 70s and 80s. Stone would leave in 1992 to start his film company, Stonefilms of Texas, which has won a bevy of awards. His deep appreciation for his perspectives on the history of this region played a role in his honoring by the Sons of the Republic of Texas.

From his graceful delivery of the day's top stories to his work on The Eyes of Texas, Stone established himself as a standard bearer amongst local newsmen, and along with the venerable Dave Ward of KTRK-TV (Channel 13/ABC) and Channel 11's Steve Smith developed a true Houston news tradition: the long-tenured anchorman, a tradition that continues today with Ward, Bill Balleza (Stone's successor at Channel 2), and Greg Hurst (Channel 11), as well as 9 p.m. anchors Mike Barajas of KRIV (Fox 26) and Alan Hemberger of KHCW (CW 39), all of whom have served no less than eight years in their current gig...at their current station.

As a native Houstonian and product of northern transplants, my perception of Ron Stone is of a person who put what was in the best interests of viewers and those who value excellence in journalism ahead of what was best for the boardroom and, most infamous of all, the almighty dollar. Stone's journalistic prowess and razor-sharp clarity combined with his small-town charm displayed the generosity and camaraderie of the people of Greater Houston to the world, and also showed when he went outside of Houston to deliver some of our greatest international headlines, most notably the fall of the Berlin Wall back in 1989.

As for his legendary tenure at KPRC, Stone graced the evening newscasts on Channel 2 for many years until the late 1980s, when Stone ceded the 10 p.m news to Balleza and began hosting an afternoon show before its 5 p.m. news (Years later, I would discover that the afternoon show was in part, brought in to make up for Channel 2's unfortunate distinction of being the Houston purveyor for Geraldo Rivera's Trash TV landfill.) When he left Channel 2 in 1992, he anchored the 6 p.m. newscast. On his last newscast, Stone said this to viewers:

"I always figured that doing local television was a trust. So I never tried to lie to you, never tried to lead you down a false path. I spent 30 years working at two really fine television stations in one really fine town. I've been a very lucky man."

- Ron Stone

And a very lucky man Stone has been, indeed, to be a part of history, and also explain it as well, in the greatest city in the world. Ron Stone will be greatly missed, but along with other legends such as Sylvan Rodriguez and Marvin Zindler, he definitely will never be forgotten, and will forever live in the hearts and minds of the people who had the fortunate opportunity to experience Stone first hand, whether through the small screen or in person.

And so it is. To quote his nightly trademark sign-off, "Good night, neighbors."

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part I: Wyoming

Well, the introduction was just posted, but I am now ready to focus on this ambitious project within my blog. And I also should mention that for each district, I will also be including the S-Factor, which measures the electoral strength of each district. As the title suggests above, the first state in my series is the smallest state (population wise) in the union...

WYOMING

Wyoming is as red as red can be in America. It is a state where the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains converge, where Division I college football can be played at the highest altitude in its class, and a state that spawned eventual Vice President Dick Cheney. But not all is red in Wyoming, as evidenced by the popularity of Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal, who was re-elected by a large margin in 2006. Wyoming Democrats are also looking to add some spice to its profile this year in the nation's smallest congressional district.

At-Large (S-Factor 18.5 GOP): This is the only congressional seat in the Equality State, and hence a strongly Republican one as well, but incumbent Barbara Cubin has at best proven to be divisive in one way or another. The seven-term Republican, dogged with a handful of questionable actions from taking ARMPAC money to a rather inappropriate comment about a third-party opponent in regards to his suffering from multiple sclerosis, only had a 1,000-vote margin last year. Cubin has decided to call it a career and not seek re-election. The Republicans in waiting to succeed her include rancher Mark Gordon, former State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis, and retired naval officer Bill Winney, who ran a spirited yet underfunded campaign against Cubin in the 2006 primary. Gordon and Lummis appear to be the stronger candidates. Cubin's Democrat opponent in '06, Teton County School Board Chair Gary Trauner, whose jurisdiction is in the northwest of the state around the town of Jackson, is running again and has nearly half a million dollars in individual donations plus over half a million dollars cash on hand as of March 31st, more than his Republican cohorts combined. Once the GOP nomination is settled by the August 19th primary however, this will be a real race. Prediction: Tossup.

And that's just one state out of many. Next stop: South Dakota.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Introduction

Hello there, and welcome to my new blog series, The Nifty Fifty House Party!

The Nifty Fifty is a review of all 435 congressional seats, which are up for grabs every two years (and this year is definitely no surprise). While seen as an initial review, it is also seen as a barometer of how things could shape up this year in the lower chamber of the United States Congress. I will also be offering a bonus section as well, but I will not tell you when I will show it to you.

Now, before I get ahead of myself, since some states have not set their primary ballots in stone yet, and even fewer states have determined the Democrat and Republican nominees, you would be wondering why I am doing such a thing? Because I believe that a personal perspective of all 435 seats would be the best way to shape up what happens in November.

I cannot guarantee you a set schedule, but states will show up on here based on a secret sorting spreadsheet that I will not explain to you for matters of security. You can be assured of one thing: no state will go unnoticed, even if nothing is going on in that state (take Arkansas for instance).

Stay tuned, and get ready for the long haul, because you will never see this blog in the same form again (And by form, I mean duration between posts).

Is it a bird? Is it a plane?

No, it's my new blog appearance.

Last night, my blog went through an extreme makeover, and it now adopts a customized platform that is designed to look catchy, original, and pure.

I also dropped the words "on Life" from my title, and I now plan to post blog musings with no more than one label. From what I have learned, too many is too bloated.

You will be seeing a more frequent blog as well. Look for more musings as time goes on.

With all respect,

Kyle S.