Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Well you know, we're in deep ____

As if the last two embarrassments weren't bad enough, last night was even worse for the Republican Party, which is still trying to shake off its perception as a party of war, far-right extremism and greed (ideals the majority of Republicans do not, have never, and will never share), and overcome Howard Dean's false myth of the GOP as a "white, Christian party" (more on that later).

In Mississippi, in the heavily Republican 1st District centered in the northern part of the state, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis, who normally would have been a sure shot to win the vacant seat of newly minted U.S. Senator Roger Wicker, ended up squandering his opportunity to Travis Childers, a Democrat chancery clerk in rural Prentiss County. The margin, 54 to 46, was a somewhat significant improvement over Childers 1-percent plurality in the first leg of the special election.

Given that nibblet of more bad news for a party that to my own disbelief can't seem to shake off hardcore lobbyists, distance themselves from the religious right, or keep its pants zipped, many would wonder if this will be another 1974 for the GOP. Sure, Republican strategists will call it a horrible year with Barack Obama drifting closer to the White House, but in my opinion, it is really a good year for Republicans such as myself for four reasons:

1. The Democrats campaigned to the right - Travis Childers is a conservative, meat-and-potatoes Democrat in a district that for decades was home to Jamie Whitten (and fell to Wicker in the Republican Revolution when Whitten retired). Had the Democrat been a wee bit more closer to the party's base, a Republican would hold the seat now. Childers and Davis ran strong campaigns in their parties' respective primaries, and both parties used extensive resources (i.e. Dick Cheney at a Davis rally) to promote their parties' principles.

2. The playbook of Freedom's Watch - Just like in Baton Rouge with Don Cazayoux's victory over Woody Jenkins in Louisiana's 6th District last year, Freedom's Watch, an advocacy front for the War on Terror, shot itself in the foot once again just as it did in Louisiana. The group tried to paint Childers as a hardcore liberal (which Childers shrugged off) and ended up getting booted by one local television station that aired an ad the group produced, for the ad broke the golden rule of a "clean campaign": never sling mud no matter much you crave for the golden calf of victory. Ironically enough, the station happened to be Memphis' Fox affiliate, WHBQ. The organization's marketing did work, though, in Ohio's 5th district, where Bob Latta benefited over Democrat Robin Weirauch, (who unlike Cazayoux and Childers was not a conservative in any way, shape or form but rather a union-vote, lunch-pail Democrat).

3. Opposites attracted - Just like Bill Foster gained the conservative Chicago Tribune's endorsement and Jim Oberweis, that of the liberal Sun-Times' in Illinois' 14th district (which Foster snagged), Childers was painted as the tax cutter and Davis, the tax hiker. When comparing apples to oranges, one common goal of Republicans is to promote fiscal conservatism. However, Childers himself was the one with the pro-growth record whereas Davis was nagged by Childers for raising taxes.

4. The district is conservative, but not overly so - As explained by Jamie Whitten's longstanding tenure in a conservative district, and the prominence of conservative Democrats in the South, it is not a vastly Republican district. But don't get me wrong, this is a red district, and Childers would in the foreseeable future be a target for the GOP. But unlike my district back in Texas which registers a heavily GOP S-Factor in the double digits, Mississippi's 1st has an S-Factor of only 9.5 GOP. Given that, if Childers reneges on his promises, Davis may have a shot to win the seat after all in November. And there are a great many Republicans in bluer districts who are sure shots for re-election this November.

In all, Republicans are not facing 4th and 20, but rather I see a new day coming to the Republican Party. The days of flaunt, extremism and what matters to Washington over common sense, decency and what matters to America are coming to an end. Come 2010, which I predict will be a year of bipartisanship, fresh faces, and new beginnings, and the Republican Party will look nothing like your father's Oldsmobile.

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