Friday, May 16, 2008

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part III: Nevada

In our last stop, we encountered yet another state where only one House district can be found (first Wyoming, then South Dakota). But now, we are ready to go to a state known for Lady Luck, rapid growth, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid...

NEVADA

It is one of the, if not, fastest growing states in America. Nevada's economy is dominated by tourism, from skiing at Lake Tahoe to extravagant tourist resorts in Las Vegas, though in rural areas, mining and cattle ranching take significance. As for taxes, there are no personal income taxes and no corporate income taxes. Drive-thru marriages and divorces are common as well. To top it off, forming a corporation in Nevada is relatively piece of cake. In short, Nevada is a state with extensive libertarian principles (not drug laws such as those pertaining to marijuana, though).

Nevada is a reliable swing state in presidential elections. Neither party holds control of the Silver State, and it voted for Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, every time each of the three got a chance. The Democrats, however are aiming to take control of the state's congressional delegation in 2008, and the focus will be on making the fourth time a charm in one district.

District 1 (S-Factor 9.3 DEM) Shelley Berkley has had no trouble winning this seat since she first won it in 1998. At that time, it covered the bulk of the Las Vegas metropolitan area. Since then, Nevada gained a third seat which reduced the Democrat's district to Sin City itself and a few surrounding areas. Three Republicans have filed to run, but the odds are no easier than somewhere in the arena of 250-1 for any of the three. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 7.5 GOP) Former Nevada Secretary of State Dean Heller snagged this Reno-centric district last year with 50% of the vote over state university regent Jill Derby, who is gunning for this seat once again. While all three of Nevada's district are the same size, the Second swamps almost the entire state, cutting into parts of Clark County and taking in every other county, and consistently votes Republican. Heller should be a fine bet for re-election, but with the GOP in a rocky situation, it's anyone's guess and Derby may pull off a winning bet. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 1.3 DEM) Jon Porter has never had an easy race in his suburban Las Vegas surroundings, in a district designed to be balanced between the two parties. His loss in 2000 to Shelley Berkley (see above) was a harbinger for his 2002 victory and subsequent wins in 2004 and 2006. In the latter re-election bid, Porter barely defeated Tessa Hafen by a meager one-percent margin. This year, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee went on a scavenger hunt to find the perfect candidate to take on Porter. They initially settled on Robert Daskas, a former Clark County prosecutor who became a top candidate amongst challengers to incumbent Republicans. The good news is Daskas later dropped out of the race, giving Porter a glimmer of hope. The bad news: the Democrats have brought in 2006 gubernatorial candidate and former State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus. Now this race is anyone's guess, with the initial edge favoring Porter but an eventual outcome even more cloudy given the specter of the foreclosure crisis which has enveloped the Las Vegas metro area. Prediction: Tossup.

Next stop: New Hampshire.

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