The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part VII: Michigan

In this election cycle, the top issue of most voters has nothing to do with the military and a series of actions that have generated considerable attention. It is not the ongoing debate over immigration, either (though it is still a top-tier issue). And it definitely has nothing to do with divisive social issues that aren’t even worth debating. Instead, the top issue of most Americans is one that resonates across every spectrum of political thought…(drum roll)…the ECONOMY. And in no other state is this problem more prevalent than in a state that has seen better days…

MICHIGAN

Originally settled by various Native American tribes (such as those of the Algonquian variety), French explorers settled here in the 1600s. Parts of the territory resided within Canada until 1818 when the border between the United States and Canada was set, splitting the oldest city in Michigan and also in the Canadian province of Ontario, Sault Ste. Marie. Growth was modest until the Erie Canal opened in 1825, which led to the entrance of Michigan into the United States on January 26, 1837. In 1854, the Republican Party was born in the town of Jackson.

In the last century, Michigan has evolved into the heart of the domestic automotive industry. Detroit once boasted a population of around 2 million, which has since been drastically reduced due to outward movement into its suburbs following World War II, as well as racial tensions and high crime. Michigan also has more lighthouses (150 to be specific) than any other state. Michigan’s counties are largely dominated by those with German ancestry, with the exception of some largely Dutch areas of Western Michigan, a large base of Finnish-Americans in the northwestern part of the Upper Peninsula, and an African American majority in Wayne County, home to Detroit. Michigan has the largest groups of inhabitants with Dutch, Finnish and Macedonian ancestry of any state.

Recently, the auto industry’s downsizing has affected Michigan, and Metro Detroit is now one of the worst housing markets in the country due to its population relocating in search of jobs, even though automotive companies such as General Motors have been resilient even in their worst shape. Michigan has also recently been a leader in corporate expansions as well, and its schools and institutes of higher learning rank among the best in the nation.

Michigan is a common swing state in presidential years, and John Kerry won this state in 2004. It also gave Ronald Reagan his winning electoral votes in the landslide of 1984. The Grand Rapids area (which gave us former President Gerald Ford), along with various other northern and western sections of Michigan vote Republican, while the cities of Detroit along with Flint, Ann Arbor and Saginaw tend to vote Democratic, leaving the rest of Michigan (such as the Lansing area and the suburbs of Metro Detroit) up for grabs. At least two House seats in Michigan are being targeted this year, and the far right's "win at all costs" attitude that for years has turned off traditional Republicans has something to do with it.

NOTE: The primary is on August 5, 2008. Predictions could change based on various circumstances.

District 1 (S-Factor 1.8 GOP): Bart Stupak has consistently won re-election to his district which takes in the Upper Peninsula (Marquette, Sault Ste Marie) as well as the “fingertips” of the mitten-shaped Lower Peninsula including Alpena. Three Republicans, State Representative Tom Casperson, Attorney Linda Goldthorpe (another activist of the Ron Paul variety), and retired businessman Don Hooper are all running to take on Stupak, who for the most part has been resilient in re-election due to his pro-life stance in a district which tends toward social conservatism especially gun issues. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 9.3 GOP): This district covers the coastal portions of heavily Dutch Western Michigan stretching from Cadillac on down to Muskegon and Holland. Pete Hoekstra, a Dutchman himself and the ranking member of the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, has won this solidly Republican district since he was first elected in 1992. The Democrat nominee is college professor Fred Johnson. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 8.8 GOP): The Grand Rapids area dominates this Republican district, which once spawned the late President Ford, and Vern Ehlers has held on to this district easily since first being elected to succeed deceased Congressman Paul Henry (who died of a brain tumor) in 1993, which is not surprising given the district’s traditional trend towards fiscally conservative, small government Republicanism. Ehlers’ Democrat challenger is Henry Sanchez, a retired communications worker. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 3.8 GOP): Since the 1970s, this Traverse City and Midland-based district has elected Republicans, and since 1992 Dave Camp has represented this Republican-leaning district. Attorney Andrew Concannon is the Democrat in waiting. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 12.0 DEM): The heavily Democratic 5th District covers the Flint area as well as Saginaw and Bay City, all making for a heavily Democratic district, which has benefited longtime incumbent Dale Kildee, the longest serving Michigander in Congress outside of Metro Detroit. The Republican candidate is teacher Matt Sawicki. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 2.3 GOP): The 6th District takes in the southwestern corner of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula, including Kalamazoo and Benton Harbor. Since 1992, the home of Whirlpool has been the domain of Fred Upton. Kalamazoo City Commissioner Don Cooney is running as the Democrat nominee, but has yet to tread water. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 2.3 GOP): This Southern Michigan district, home to Tony the Tiger and the beginnings of the Republican Party, and centered around Battle Creek and Jackson, has not been a competitive district in years. However, the defeat of moderate Republican Joe Schwarz by far-right Republican Tim Walberg has put this district in the crosshairs of the D-Trip. 2006 Democrat nominee Sharon Renier is running again, but a stronger donkey, State Senator Mark Schauer is aiming to take on Walberg, and has even outraised the freshman. Will Walberg’s incumbency and the district’s Republican lean save him? Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 8 (S-Factor 1.8 GOP): Michael J. Rogers (middle initial inserted to distinguish from a similar-named Congressman down in the South) had a relatively close 13-point victory margin in 2006 against Jim Marcinkowski. His district stretches from the Lansing area eastward to the northern fringes of Oakland County, which makes for a rather competitive district. The Democrats have been slow to nominate a candidate, though, and retired state health official Bob Alexander has so far generated little enthusiasm. Prediction: Solid GOP

District 9 (S-Factor 0.3 DEM): Despite what the S-Factor suggests, the 9th tends toward moderate Republicans (and Dubya ain’t one of them). It takes in the bulk of wealthy Oakland County including Farmington Hills, Troy, Waterford and Rochester Hills. And Joe Knollenberg has for the most part fit the mold of the district since his first election in 1992 when he succeeded longtime Republican Bill Broomfield. Still, with a poor GOP climate this year, it doesn’t stop the D-Trip from focusing on this seat, as evidenced by Knollenberg’s tiny margin in 2006 against Nancy Skinner. This time, the Democrats have recruited former Michigan Lottery commissioner Gary Peters to run for the seat. The race is now even more intriguing with the independent candidacy of “Dr. Death” – Jack Kevorkian. Right now, Knollenberg is preferred, but with the Donkey Brigade aiming to tie even the most moderate of Republicans to an unpopular president, anything can happen in this district, and you can thank the vocal minority of far-right extremists for its recent shift many years ago. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 10 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): Most of the Thumb region is contained within this district, though a few parts of Metro Detroit, such as northern Macomb County, once known as a bastion of “Reagan Democrats”, but has now become an increasingly white-collar, Republican area. Blue-collar currents still exist particularly in Port Huron, though, and Candice Miller has consistently done well since her first election in 2002. The Democrats are once again fielding 2006 nominee Robert Denison. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 11 (S-Factor 0.8 GOP): Thaddeus McCotter has risen rather quickly since his first election in 2002 to this district which covers southwest Oakland County (including Novi), and northwest Wayne County (Westland, Livonia). McCotter has since played lead guitar in a congressional band, is a regular guest on Dennis Miller’s radio show, and now chairs the House Republican Policy Committee. Former Novi City Manager Ed Kriewall and attorney Joseph Larkin are the Democrat nominees, but neither has been able to catch up to McCotter despite the fact that his district is fairly competitive especially in the Wayne County portion. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 12 (S-Factor 12.8 DEM): While the suburbs of Metro Detroit are not technically Democratic, the most Democratic portions of Oakland (Southfield, Royal Oak, Ferndale) and Macomb (Clinton, St. Clair Shores, Warren) counties are stuffed into this district. Sander Levin has consistently won re-election to this district, and this year should be no different as Levin, whose younger brother Carl is up for re-election to the Senate this year, should expect to return to Congress over home health care executive Bert Copple. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 13 (S-Factor 32.3 DEM): This is a very heavily Democratic district based on Detroit’s east side which gave John Kerry 93 percent of the vote, but also including River Rouge, Harper Woods, Wyandotte and the Grosse Pointe suburbs. It has faced a multitude of setbacks over the years but has since started to roar back. Congressional Black Caucus chair Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick has held the seat since 1996 and won practically unopposed in 2006. In 2008, she is facing two primary challengers, State Senator Martha Scott and former State Representative Mary Waters, largely as a result of controversy surrounding her son, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick who has been hammered with a host of ethical and legal challenges. Regardless, expect the Democrat to prevail in November over Republican Edward Gubics. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 14 (S-Factor 33.5 DEM): The 14th is a tad bluer than the 13th to its east, taking in the western part of Detroit but also the heavily Arab city of Dearborn, and has been the exclusive domain of Judiciary Committee chair John Conyers since he was first elected in 1965. The GOP isn’t even fielding anyone. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 15 (S-Factor 12.8 DEM): Heavily Democratic in nature, the district is a combo of blue-collar voters in Wayne County (Romulus, Inkster), academics in Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti, and farmers in the rest of southeastern Michigan (Monroe County). For three generations, the Dingell family has dominated the district’s politics, and the Dean of the House, John Dingell, has been here since 1955 when he succeeded his deceased father. The chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Dingell’s biennial introduction of a national health insurance bill, avid support for gun rights, and defense of Detroit’s automotive industry will carry Dingell into yet another term over Republican candidate Jack Lynch. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Michigan is quite a state, nonetheless. And there is still a long way to go.

Next stop: Colorado.