The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part II: South Dakota

Last time, we went to a state that gave us America's first national park, Wyoming, where a relatively competitive (for now) House race is ongoing. Speaking of national parks, we will now go to a state where the main attraction is the nickname of the state...

SOUTH DAKOTA

The official nickname of this heavily rural state at the confluence of the Great Plains and the Midwest is The Mount Rushmore State, a reference to the famous namesake landmark that boasts the faces of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Teddy Roosevelt, and Abraham Lincoln. Agriculture is the dominant cash cow in this state, which explains recent efforts to diversify its economy to keep residents from leaving the state in search of a job, I speak of "rural flight". With free land and tax breaks, South Dakota is pulling out all the stops to stem the bleeding.

1978 was the last time a governorship went to a Democrat in South Dakota. That explains the state's heavy preference towards Republicans (generally ones with considerable crossover appeal such as Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, but not as much so for more moderate elephants such as the elder George Bush and Richard Nixon). But it is also a state where Democrats can have one bragging right: the only House seat in this small state.

At-Large (S-Factor 9.5 GOP) As if the Democrats' recent gains in special elections weren't bad enough for Republicans, this is not the first time such a scenario has happened. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin won South Dakota's lone congressional seat in a 2004 special election triggered by the resignation of Bill Janklow, a popular Governor who fell from grace after his conviction of manslaughter in the death of a motorcyclist in a traffic collision. Since then, with NRA endorsements, Blue Dog traits and a focus on Native Americans in a state with a significant presence of indian tribes, Herseth Sandlin has won over voters in this conservative state. But her electoral success goes well beyond her work in Washington on behalf of the people of South Dakota. She comes from a very political family (her grandfather was a former Governor) and her husband is none other than former Congressman Max Sandlin of Texas' 1st Congressional District.

The Republicans will most likely have a shot for this seat in 2010 when the Governor's Mansion is up again (and Herseth Sandlin is a potential suitor for the seat). But until then, Herseth Sandlin won't be going anywhere. Attorney Chris Lien is the Republican nominee, but barring a surprise slip of the tongue, you can expect nothing more but a very, very distant dark horse bid out of Lien, and definitely no NRCC help. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Nevada, where the odds have weaved in and out for one incumbent.