The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part VI: Virginia

While Memorial Day is seen as a time of rest and relaxation (and a time of events most people would rather forget), we should all know that Memorial Day is celebrated to honor the men and women of our Armed Forces who gave their lives for the betterment of our great country. As we honor our veterans on this day, the Nifty Fifty continues with the one state that, while it was not the first admitted to the Union, marked the beginning of America over four centuries ago...

VIRGINIA

On May 13, 1607, Christopher Newport and John Smith founded Jamestown, marking the beginning of what eventually became known as the United States of America. By 1698, the capital moved to Williamsburg. And in 1776, as America declared independence, Thomas Jefferson drafted a constitution that declared Virginia's independence from the British Empire. Jefferson's concerns about an attack on Williamsburg eventually led to the relocation of the capital to Richmond, where it sits today. Richmond later served as the capitol of the Confederate States of America when Virginia seceded from the union in 1861. In 1971, over a century after the days of Reconstruction and Jim Crow had passed, the constitution was rewritten, and in 1990, Doug Wilder became Virginia's first African American governor.

The Mother of Presidents, Virginia has also spawned many states to its west, including West Virginia. The state consists of 39 independent cities as well as 95 counties holding jurisdiction over all of the state's incorporated towns and unincorporated communities. Virginia also has some of the nation's strongest public schools and institutes of higher learning, including the University of Virginia and Virginia Tech, and can boast of the largest non-Russian Fabergé egg collection, as well as musicians Patsy Cline, Jason Mraz, Dave Matthews, Ella Fitzgerald and Bruce Hornsby, among others. It is also home to a diverse economy, hosting military installations, defense contracting, coal mining, agriculture (i.e. tobacco, peanuts), wineries, and technology (computer chips are its top export). Televangelists by the likes of Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson have also hailed from this state. Not to mention the quintessential political analyst, Larry Sabato.

While traditionally a conservative state, Virginia has emerged as a political battleground in recent election cycles, and 2008 may be the most intriguing one for the Old Dominion. Besides being projected to do well in the central and southern parts of the state, the Hampton Roads area is home to many military families that could aid John McCain's chances, while the Black Belt Region will look to be a major focal point for Barack Obama along with the college towns of Charlottesville and Blacksburg. The coal miners in Southwest Virginia are also a potential voting bloc that could base their decisions on a weakened economy (but have questions about Obama's background and McCain's independent streak). However, the focal point of the race will be the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., which have shifted more to the Democrats (and Obama) due to the state GOP's alarming drift towards social conservatism but could swing towards the maverick McCain.

With Virginia having elected Democratic Governors to Richmond the last two times (there is a one-term limit here), popular former Governor Mark Warner seeking the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the unrelated John Warner, and control of the State Senate now in the Democrats' clutch, the stakes could not have been higher for the Republicans, where at least one congressional seat (and as many as four) could be in play...

NOTE: The primary is on June 10, 2008. Predictions could change based on various circumstances.

District 1 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): This district stretches across the Eastern Shore of the state from the suburbs of Washington, D.C. (Fredericksburg, parts of Fauquier and Prince William counties) down southward to Williamsburg and Poquoson. Rob Wittman took this seat in 2007 after fellow Republican and incumbent Jo Ann Davis died of breast cancer. The Democrats have nominated physician and farmer Keith Hummel, who was selected at a party convention in Williamsburg. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 5.5 GOP): Thelma Drake survived by the skin of her teeth in 2006 against Democrat Phil Kellam, the Revenue Commissioner in Virginia Beach, which along with Norfolk and the Commonwealth's share of the Delmarva Peninsula comprise the district. While Governor Tim Kaine carried this seat, John Kerry and Jim Webb did not. Drake is being targeted again, this time with former U.S. diplomat Glenn Nye, but with McCain expected to draw some support (as mentioned above) from Hampton Roads' military community, it could be a cakewalk for Drake. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 18.5 DEM): One common characteristic of most Southern states is a district drawn to contain a significant African-American base, and Bobby Scott's district is no exception. Scott has held the seat since 1993, which covers at least parts of Norfolk, Richmond, Newport News, Hampton and Portsmouth, as well as some surrounding counties. It has not been in play for a long time and will stay that way. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): Like Rob Wittman, Randy Forbes came to Washington on a post mortem vacancy, as he succeeded the late Norman Sisisky in 2001. Software designer Andrea Miller is running as the Democrat, but Forbes should be assured in his district which stretches in a counterclockwise direction from just south of Richmond on down to Chesapeake and Suffolk. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 5.0 GOP): Virgil Goode has been a man of three trades: a Democrat in the 90s, an independent afterwards, and nearly a year after 9/11 a Republican. While this district (which covers southern Virginia and Charlottesville) generally should not be in play, attorney and non-profit guru Tom Perriello is looking to change that. Perriello is benefitting from outpacing Goode in the fundraising department ($640K compared to Goode's $438K), the fact that Tim Kaine barely won the district, and Goode's recent slipup when he addressed concerns regarding Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison's use of a Qur'an (he is Muslim) in his swearing-in ceremony. But Perriello faces tough odds against Goode, whose social conservatism and populist tendencies have kept the latter in the safe column. The question is: will Perriello make enough of an effort to put the seat in play? Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 10.8 GOP): Bob Goodlatte, whose district covers Roanoke and Harrisonburg among other areas, has consistently won re-election since first being elected in 1992. Goodlatte should be safe against businessman Sam Rasoul. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 10.3 GOP): Eric Cantor is a person of importance within the GOP, as both the chief Deputy Republican Whip and the only Jewish Republican. His district covers the west end of Richmond, most of the capital city's suburbs and a significant share of the Shenandoah Valley, and Cantor should cruise to victory over Culpeper County Democrat Chair Anita Hartke. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 8 (S-Factor 13.8 DEM): With the exception of Bobby Scott's 3rd district, this is the most Democratic district in Virginia. It covers many of the bluest parts of Northern Virginia; places such as Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church and Reston come to mind. The quirky Jim Moran has been known for his brand of Democrat politics, which is somewhat populist, sometimes bizarre especially for a relatively urban-suburban district. A primary challenger exists in attorney Matt Famiglietti, and Republicans have fielded a warm-blooded, albeit longshot pair of candidates: banker Mark Ellmore and businessman Amit Singh. Both are party activists, with Singh of the Ron Paul variety. Still, in a district this blue, Moran should prevail. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 6.5 GOP): Since 1982, Rick Boucher has consistently won re-election to his southwest Virginia seat which is also the poorest in the state. And once again, barring a last minute fielding, Boucher won't have to worry about a Republican challenge. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 10 (S-Factor 5.0 GOP): Frank Wolf has always been a lock for re-election since he first came here in 1980, but in 2006 he received a scare from Georgetown Public Policy Institute Dean Judy Feder. Feder is running again, and is joined by retired Air Force officer Mike Turner in the Democratic primary. Financial analyst Vern McKinley is running against Wolf in the GOP primary. Wolf survived a bad GOP year as he did in 2006, but will 2008 be another deviation from the usual or another easy victory? Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 11 (S-Factor 0.5 GOP): There are a number of seats in play here in Virginia, but none more so than this district, the wealthiest in America a top pickup opportunity for the Democrats. Tom Davis, known as a walking bible amongst Republican campaign strategists, is a political fixture in Northern Virginia in spite of a number of irregularities. But a Democratic uprising here, which costs Davis' wife her State Senate seat last year, ended George Allen's Senate career in 2006 (when Davis scored 55% against Democrat Andrew Hurst), and gave Tim Kaine the governorship in 2005, will likely turn the seat blue this year (not to mention the fact that the Virginia GOP is somewhat too stubborn to talk about more realistic issues other than those of the religious right). Throw in Mark Warner's Senate candidacy and the battle lines are drawn. Four Democrats have filed to run, but the nomination battle is set between Fairfax County Chairman Gerry Connolly and Davis' predecessor in Congress, Leslie Byrne. Not all is lost for the Republicans, though with home inspection executive Keith Fimian raising close to one million dollars, enough to keep up with the Democrats. No matter how much the Democrats gain this year, this seat is still anyone's guess. Prediction: Tossup.

Next stop: Michigan.