The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part IV: New Hampshire

After a four-day recess, and a look at Nevada, where one congressional seat had gone between being in play, then not in play, and within a day back in play again, our next trip take us to the most conservative state in the Northeast...

NEW HAMPSHIRE

The ninth state to enter the union, New Hampshire is known for its motto, "Live Free or Die", a testament to the state's libertarian livelihood. It offers up a host of activities, from auto racing to skiing to fall foliage, throughout the state. It was once the home of the Old Man of the Mountain until an unexpected turn of events led to the collapse of the famed formation. It is predominantly rural in the north and more suburban in the south, the latter the result of its positioning in the Boston area (which I'll explain later). The state's lake region hosts a variety of summer camps, and during ski season there are more miles of snowmobile trails in the state than there are roads. New Hampshire can also boast some firsts: the world's first publicly-funded library, the first forestry conservation organization, the birth state of Tupperware, the first American in space (Alan Shepard), and the first state lottery in the modern era. It also gave us Christa McAuliffe, the first teacher in space who tragically perished in the Challenger disaster of 1986.

Politically, it is as mentioned above, libertarian. The Free State Project is based here in New Hampshire. The fourth-largest legislative body in the English francophone world, can be found here in the New Hampshire House of Representatives, and members only get paid at least $100 a year. Local control is the norm here, as cities and towns can set as many rules as they want, while the state keeps government influence to a bare minimum and imposes no state income or sales taxes. The roots of the Republican Party can be traced to Exeter in 1853, but what was once a safe bet for the GOP is now a swing state, as George W. Bush could not hold on to the Granite State in 2004 as he did in 2000 (Then again, W's politics are not reflective of the Republican establishment here). 2006 was a nightmarish year for New Hampshire Republicans who lost the state's two congressional seats, control of the General Court (both the State House and State Senate), and gave Democrat Governor John Lynch a 3-to-1 landslide. Now Republicans, hoping to ride on John McCain's relatively libertarian streak, hope to take back the two seats it squandered.

NOTE: Filing has not closed yet, If any significant developments come up I will let you know.

District 1 (S-Factor 0.0) This is the most conservative congressional district in all of New England, and it is a politically marginal one as well. But it still fell to the Democrats, albeit in the most surprising manner as many pundits did not even expect Jeb Bradley to lose to anti-war activist Carol Shea-Porter. In fact, Shea-Porter wasn't even the establishment candidate as the Democratic nomination was supposed to go to State House Democrat Leader Jim Craig who ended up getting 34% of the vote in the primary compared to Shea-Porter's 54%. The district covers the Manchester area in the south and east central parts of the state such as Laconia in the north. Bradley is looking to take back the seat, and will look to give Shea-Porter a pure fight, especially now that Shea-Porter has the incumbency handicap. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 3.0 DEM) Unlike Shea-Porter, Paul Hodes had an easier time dispatching incumbent Charlie Bass, who has thus far ruled out a rematch. Hodes' district takes in a significant chunk of the North Country as well as the capital city of Concord and the high-tech Boston exurbs (including Nashua) that had been shifting blue in recent years. With John McCain the presumptive Republican nominee, though, Hodes is not necessarily a safe bet for re-election despite being elected the President of the Democratic Freshman Class of 2006, serving in a somewhat blue district, and raising a massive warchest (to the tune of $1.3 million in donations). State Senator Bob Clegg and radio talker Jennifer Horn appear to be the leading candidates, but funding figures have lagged for the two as of last March. Prediction: Favor DEM.

Next stop: Alaska (I know, another little state, but it's one with big implications).