The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XIV: Pennsylvania

Last time, I made some big waves going through Hawaii which not surprisingly had relatively quiet ones. Now it is time to go from the youngest state in the Union to an even bigger, far shakier one that is among the oldest...

PENNSYLVANIA

Known as "PA" by the locals, and also known as the Keystone State for being square in the middle of the Original 13, Pennsylvania accounts for 9% of America's woodlands and lays claim to Gettysburg, home of the battle that served as the turning point of the Civil War. Known for having its early history rooted in the Religious Society of Friends, or Quakers, PA is also home to the largest concentration of Amish in America and the most covered bridges of any state.

The state is home to 50 Fortune 500 companies but is divided economically, with Philadelphia and its suburbs dominated by insurance and financial interests (among others) and Pittsburgh boasting various aspects of working class grit in steel and ketchup (Heinz is based in Pittsburgh). The nation's oldest zoo is located in Philadelphia and recreation is plentiful, with 121 state parks offering free admission, a slew of amusement parks, and great professional and college sports teams, not to mention the Mario Andretti racing dynasty, the Little League World Series in Williamsport, and Latrobe native and golf legend Arnold Palmer. Snack food is a common sight here as well; it is a major producer of pretzels, potato chips, chocolate, and Peeps (I wonder if they are offering red elephants and blue donkeys this year).

In the current lexicon, Pennsylvania is a swing state. The current Governor, Democrat Ed Rendell once chaired the Democratic National Committee and served as the mayor of Philadelphia, while the General Assembly is relatively split with a Republican Senate and a Democrat House led by a Republican Speaker. Democrats dominate in the city of Philadelphia and in various metropolitan areas such as Pittsburgh, Allentown, Erie and Scranton whereas Republicans run the show in its rural heart. The recipe for victory lies in the wealthy suburbs of Philadelphia, which tends toward moderate Republicanism and has warmed towards Democrats in recent elections, courtesy of the Vocal Fringe (more on that later).

While the 2006 elections were a disaster for Republicans, no state showed it more than Pennsylvania did, with Gov. Rendell cruising to victory, Rick Santorum losing his Senate seat by the worst margin for an incumbent in Pennsylvania history since we started directly electing our U.S. Senators, and four house seats going to the Democrats: two by scandal, two by surprise. Pennsylvania is a key battleground once again for both parties this year, even though moderate Senator Arlen Specter is not in play until 2010.

District 1 (S-Factor 35.8 DEM): Known for its cheesesteak purveyors (Whiz wit, please!), the Philadelphia Sports Complex (home to the Eagles, Phillies, 76ers and Flyers), and America's oldest and largest outdoor market (the 9th Street Italian Market), the 1st otherwise has a very working-class atmosphere replete with a strong union presence and overwhelming margins for Democrats. The chair of the Philadelphia Democratic Party, Bob Brady, happens to be the representative for this district in South Philadelphia. He should have no trouble against little-known Mike Muhammad. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 39.0 DEM): Center City Philadelphia and the William Penn statue are the focal point of this heavily African-American district that is a slam dunk for Chaka Fattah, who thus far is only facing opposition from the Socialist Workers Party. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 1.3 GOP): Phil English is a moderate pro-labor Republican in a very competitive district centered in the Democratic stronghold of Erie. Democrats believe that he is vulnerable (he only got 54% against a third-tier donkey in 2006) and are hoping Lake Erie Arboretum Director Kathy Dahlkemper can hitch a ride along the ever-evolving Obamamotive. The D-Trip is hailing Dahlkemper as an emerging candidate, but she has yet to match the coffers of English. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 2.3 GOP): Former high school football all-star turned health care system executive Jason Altmire was one of the dark horse masters of 2006, upsetting three-term incumbent Melissa Hart with 52% of the vote in this suburban Pittsburgh district. Hart is wanting her old job back, but the power of incumbency in this historically Democrat district and a healthy flow of cash (Altmire leads the money train by a 3-to-1 margin) gives Altmire the early edge. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 9.3 GOP): John Peterson has called it a career in this central Pennsylvania district (home to Penn State) that is heavily Republican in nature, hence the GOP is favored to hold this seat. However, the GOP nominee, Centre County GOP boss Glenn Thompson only secured a measley 19.4 percent of the vote against eight other challengers to win the party's nod and has struggled mightly in fundraising (several of his primary challengers raised considerably more). The Democrat nominee is Clearfield County Commissioner Mike McCracken. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 2.5 DEM): Jim Gerlach has never gotten an easy break in his district, situated in between suburban Philadelphia, Lancaster and Reading, since winning it in 2002. Retired businessman Bob Roggio is the Democrat aiming to take the seat from Gerlach, but Gerlach has crafted an image as a moderate Republican, the kind of elephant that delivers the votes in suburban Philadelphia (in this case, parts of Chester and Montgomery counties). Roggio has also stirred controversy after blasting Gerlach for missing votes...votes Gerlach missed to attend his mother's funeral. The Dems still have a chance, but they might have already blew it. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 3.8 DEM): Delaware County's historically strong GOP voter edge was not enough to keep Curt Weldon in office, as retired military officer Joe Sestak shoved out the longtime incumbent, who fell under the microscope of the FBI late in the campaign due to involvement with Russian and Serbian energy and business interests. The GOP is fielding a second-rate candidate in former Assistant U.S. Attorney Craig Williams, whose treasury ($133K) is anemic compared to that of Sestak (well over $2.3M). Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 3.5 DEM): Mike Fitzpatrick managed to narrowly secure Bucks County (the district's dominant portion) in his re-election bid in 2006, but it was not enough to overcome the Democratic margins in the rest of the district (northeast Philadelphia and part of Montgomery County) that sent Patrick Murphy to Congress. The GOP is fielding pharmaceuticals executive Tom Manion whose son was a casualty of the Iraq War, a war that Murphy himself fought. Right now, it appears Murphy is winning the battle but Manion is aiming to close the gap. Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 14.5 GOP): This heavily rural - and Republican - district is nestled in the state's southern portions including Altoona and the site of Flight 93 in Shanksville. The incumbent, Bill Shuster, will face repeat challenger Tony Barr. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 10 (S-Factor 7.5 GOP): This is one district that was not expected to go Democrat, but the curtains closed on Don Sherwood's career after he came under fire for allegations that he allegedly choked a woman with whom he admitted having an extramarital affair. This benefitted former Defense Department consultant and Navy officer Chris Carney, who is now one of the most vulnerable Democrats in this cycle. The GOP just got off a bruising primary here in this northeastern Pennsylvania district (home to Williamsport and various areas surrounding Scranton/Wilkes-Barre) pitting wealthy One Source Staffing boss Chris Hackett against another wealthy businessman, Pride Mobility owner Dan Meuser. Hackett went on to win the primary, one so considerably nasty (Hackett was attacked for hiring an illegal immigrant to perform maid work whereas Meuser was also blasted for hiring illegals at his company) that Carney may actually benefit this year. Still, the district's red demographics make this race one to watch. Prediction: Tossup.

District 11 (S-Factor 5.3 DEM): Nothing has slowed longtime incumbent Paul Kanjorski much in his Democrat-leaning constituency comprising of the cities of Scranton and Wilkes-Barre and the lion's share of the Poconos. Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta has added considerable spice to this race. An ardent opponent of illegal immigration, Barletta has attracted considerable attention, even posting a poll showing him ahead of Kanjorski, 47 to 42 percent. However, the historically Democratic nature of this district gives Kanjorski a slight but not overwhelming edge...for now. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 12 (S-Factor 5.0 DEM): John Murtha faced a rather competitive battle last time against Washington County Commissioner Diana Irey who focused on Murtha's outspoken criticism of the Iraq War. Because of Murtha's presence in this Johnstown-centric district (the region's airport even bears his name) and a comfortable double-digit victory in 2006, Irey is not running again this year. The elephant this year? Businessman William Russell. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 13 (S-Factor 8.3 DEM): This district, situated in the heart of suburban Philadelphia's Montgomery County as well as Northeast Philadelphia, is the poster child of the suburban shift towards the Democrats since Pat Buchanan's infamous 1992 "culture war" speech that empowered the Vocal Fringe at the expense of true Republicans who believe in common sense fiscal discipline and social inclusiveness. It was a historically Republican seat that went heavily for George Bush the elder in 1988 and has since swung Democrat; no Republican has won this district since. The district's incumbent, Allyson Schwartz has won by comfortable margins both times in 2004 as an open seat contender and again in 2006 as the incumbent and has emerged as a prodigous fundraiser, with nearly $1.9 million in the bank as of the first quarter of 2008. The Republicans are fielding attorney Marina Kats, but it will take a lot to gain ground at this point. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 14 (S-Factor 21.5 DEM): Former Republican-turned-Democrat Mike Doyle has represented Pittsburgh and some of its inner suburbs since 1994, when he was one of a handful of Democrats to win GOP seats after taking Rick Santorum's old House seat when the latter bolted for the Senate. The Republicans aren't fielding a candidate this year. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 15 (S-Factor 2.0 DEM): This Lehigh Valley (Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton) district is very competitive in nature at the presidential level; normally the district's preference is eventually that of the state as a whole. Charlie Dent has carved an image of a moderate Republican, focusing on such pressing concerns as alternative energy while taking pragmatic stances on social issues such as opposing federal intervention in the Terri Schiavo controversy. Allentown's top donkey and two-time mayoral candidate, Sam Bennett has made the cut as an emerging contender for the Democrats, but Dent has yet to stall despite a somewhat lackluster performance in 2006 (53.6% to 43.5%). Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 16 (S-Factor 11.0 GOP): Joe Pitts represents a largely Republican district situated in the heart of Pennsylvania Dutch Country including such cities as Lancaster, West Chester and Reading. The Democrat running is party activist and contractor Bruce Slater. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 17 (S-Factor 11.0 GOP): Home to the capital city of Harrisburg and surrounding areas, the district is a heavily Republican one represented by a Democrat in Tim Holden, who has managed to stave off his GOP challengers thus far. The Republican candidate is retired police officer Toni Gilhooley. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 18 (S-Factor 2.0 GOP): Tim Murphy represents a relatively competitive district that takes in several suburbs surrounding Pittsburgh including most of Republican-leaning Westmoreland County. Murphy has come under fire for allegations he violated some House rules, which could give businessman and Navy vet Steve O'Donnell some ammunition to use in this race. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 19 (S-Factor 11.8 GOP): This district includes the city of York - the nation's first Capital - as well as Gettysburg, home of the famed Civil War battle. Todd Platts, the moderate GOP incumbent since 2000, has hardly faced strong challenges since being elected to this district, running without Democrat opposition in 2002 and 2004, and his Democrat challenger this year is the same as his in 2006, former York School Board President Phil Avillo. Prediction: Solid GOP.

Next stop: Tennessee.