The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XVII: Maryland

A dozen days have passed since Dixie (and Eurobamapalooza '08 in between now and then)...

Yes, quite a bit embarrassing, but it is now time to pick up the pace and head off to a state that is neither Southern by the grace of God nor clearly in the blue blood of the Northeast...

MARYLAND

A border state that is now the wealthiest in America, Maryland's inception can be attributed to George Calvert's desire to create a colony favorable to Catholics, after a failed attempt to create such a colony further north (and north of the border) in Newfoundland. In fact, conflict continued as Pennsylvania debated as to where their southern border was (i.e. part of Philadelphia would have fallen into Maryland's jurisdiction), and it was not until Englishmen Charles Mason and Jeremiah Dixon stepped in to review the boundaries, thus the Mason-Dixon line which serves as a symbolic boundary between the North and South. Eventually, Maryland became one of America's original thirteen colonies.

Today, Maryland boasts a diverse economic base comprised largely of transportation-related industries, including the Port of Baltimore, government services attributed to Washington, D.C., which Maryland donated to create a district independent of any state, and major research hubs, both educational and medical, including the United States Naval Academy in Annapolis and Johns Hopkins University, which boasts an internationally-acclaimed medical school. The author of the Star-Spangled Banner, Francis Scott Key, hails from Maryland. The state also gave us Babe Ruth, Harriet Tubman, Edgar Allan Poe, Spiro Agnew, Cal Ripken Jr., Tom Clancy, Upton Sinclair, Thurgood Marshall, David Hasselhoff, Frank Zappa, Matt Drudge, Montel Williams, John Wilkes Booth, Frederick Douglass, Anna Faris, Ben Stein, Michael Phelps, and the band O.A.R., among many others (Yes, a laundry list of people). The tallest (and shortest) members of Congress ever to serve came from here as well: 6'11" Tom McMillen and 4'11" Barbara Mikulski. As with any state, politicians from out-of-state can be traced to here as well, including California-based House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (yes, her father was a former mayor of Baltimore) and Baltimore-born Texas State Senator and conservative talk radio host Dan Patrick.

Maryland is a Democrat's dream. The state's Democrat establishment has run the show here for over 150 years, and as the Democrats shift the state hops on the bandwagon. With many jobs in the state fixated on the federal government and a large African-American population of over 30 percent, Democrats have always considered Maryland amongst its strongest states. The state's Eastern Shore and western areas however tend to vote Republican, along with several suburban areas of Baltimore, though the latter region also tends to back conservative Democrats. While nothing much is going on in Maryland this year, Barack Obama's presence at the top of the ticket could aid Democrats.

District 1 (S-Factor 9.3 GOP): Wayne Gilchrest had it all. A dedicated citizen-legislator, Gilchrest went from teaching at a local high school to serving in Congress for nine successive terms, often winning re-election by margins between two-thirds and three-quarters. It was not until Gilchrest voted in favor a bill calling for withdrawing troops for Iraq that his votes began to catch up with him, in which State Senator, Naval Reservist and physician Andy Harris knocked off the nine-term incumbent with help from much of the local GOP establishment. While the district, covering the Eastern Shore and several Baltimore suburbs, is conservative on paper, and Harris is still favored to win, Gilchrest's more moderate supporters have been stumping for the Democrat candidate, Queen Anne's County State's Attorney Frank Kratovil. The result is a fairly competitive race, with one poll showing Harris leading by only nine points. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 7.8 DEM): Various Baltimore suburbs, mostly along a stretch of I-95 including Severn, Essex, Dundalk, and Towson, dot the landscape here along with parts of Baltimore itself. Incumbent Dutch Ruppersberger is safe in this fairly moderate district, but Republicans have fielded a Ron Paul-style candidate in computer systems engineer Richard Matthews. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 7.5 DEM): As the sun set on Paul Sarbanes' career in the U.S. Senate, John Sarbanes set his sights on Congress to continue his father's presence in Washington in 2006 after Ben Cardin sought the Senate seat, with success. This time, Sarbanes is safe against insurance broker Pinkston Harris in a district that cuts across parts of Baltimore to include various northern suburbs and then stretches across a strip of suburbs stretching out to Annapolis (Yes, Maryland has one of the absolute worst congressional district arrangements in the country, just look at the district map here and you will see why). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 29.8 DEM): This predominantly African-American, middle-class district, situated in the Washington suburbs including Montgomery and Prince George's counties (with an emphasis on the latter), saw a recent change of the guard following the defeat of incumbent Al Wynn, a moderate-to-conservative Democrat by African-American Democrat standards. Attorney and community activist Donna Edwards, who defeated Wynn in the primary, later came to Congress early after Wynn retired from Congress last June. She will once again face libertarian Republican computer consultant Peter James. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 9.3 DEM): Southern Maryland has been the focus of House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer since 1981 when Gladys Spellman fell into a coma and as a result, her district became vacant. Since then, Hoyer has been a consistent lock for re-election in this district, and is once again heavily favored over lumber broker and Charles County school board member Collins Bailey. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 12.5 GOP): This is perhaps the most Republican district in the Old Line State, stretching from the western portion of the state all the way to the outer Baltimore and Washington suburbs (such as Frederick and Carroll counties). The congressman is a citizen-legislator himself: Roscoe Bartlett, who has served as a professor, businessman, scientist, inventor, and farmer -- a jack of all trades. Democrats are fielding former Frederick mayor Jennifer Dougherty this year, but Bartlett has generally won by fairly comfortable margins or better in this district. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 25.5 DEM): Elijah Cummings has generally had no trouble winning re-election in this district. After all, it contains most of heavily Democratic Baltimore City and Democratic-leaning western suburbs. Another libertarian Republican candidate awaits Cummings in dentist Mike Hargadon. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 20.0 DEM): This district is purely blue, covering most of the liberal-leaning Montgomery County suburbs of Washington (including all of the county's Potomac River shoreline) and a sliver of Prince George's County. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Chris Van Hollen won't have to worry about his district; he is virtually bulletproof against surgeon and attorney Steve Hudson. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Louisiana.

UPDATE!

Colorado's 4th District (Fort Collins, Greeley and an eastern shaving of the state) is a bit more competitive now. The GOP normally performs fairly strong out here (though Fort Collins appears purple-to-blue on paper), but incumbent Marilyn Musgrave's social conservatism has been a red flag of sorts in the libertarian-minded West. The Democrats are fielding a sizable candidate in former Senatorial (via Ken Salazar) staffer Betsy Markey, who has not only outraised Musgrave in the past quarter, but has the lion's share of donations coming in from Colorado itself. Will Musgrave hang on? New prediction: Leans GOP.