The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XV: Tennessee

This year, both parties will be searching for an unprecedented amount of volunteers to power their campaigns in what will be one of the biggest blockbuster election years in American history. This next state is one where volunteers are very commonplace...

TENNESSEE

Known as the Volunteer State due to the prominence of its volunteer soldiers during the War of 1812, Tennessee is a state that is geographically distinct in three regions, with the Great Smoky Mountains in the East, the Mississippi River to its West, and plateaus in the middle of the state such as the Cumberland Plateau. The world's largest air cargo operation can be found in Memphis, home to FedEx, and whiskey is plentiful here (Jack Daniel's and George Dickel are both produced in this state). Tennessee is also noted for its country music industry (the capital city of Nashville is home to the Grand Ole Opry where many country music greats have performed), and was the home of Elvis Presley, who died at his Memphis estate known as Graceland. The state has also given us Dolly Parton, Kenny Chesney, The Allman Brothers Band, and Justin Timberlake, as well as movie and TV stars Morgan Freeman, Cybill Shepherd, Samuel L. Jackson, Megan Fox, Shannen Doherty, Wink Martindale, Johnny Knoxville, and Fred Thompson, one of many Republicans who sought the GOP nod this year.

Politically, it is one of the Democrats' stronger states in a region that has become dominated by the Republican Party. Southern Democrats especially have done well here such as Jimmy Carter and Al Gore, a former U.S. Senator from this state. Furthermore, the state also spawned Andrew Jackson, the first President to hail from today's Democratic Party. Five of its nine members of Congress are Democrats, two of whom represent purely liberal seats in the urban cores of Memphis and Nashville. The other three districts are largely rural and rather competitive, with two fixated around the Nashville suburbs and a third covering rural western areas with a significant number of rural black voters. Of the four Republican districts, three are in East Tennessee whose Republican dominance dates back to Reconstruction (the region strongly supported the Union during the Civil War). The fourth Republican-held district connects many of Memphis' suburban areas with some of Nashville's outskirts. Tennessee is one of the better states for Republicans this year due to the lack of relatively competitive races in this state, save for a couple of primary challenges to incumbents.

NOTE: The primary is on August 7, 2008. Predictions could change based on various circumstances.

District 1 (S-Factor 13.3 GOP): David Davis' road to Congress in 2006 to succeed the now-retired Bill Jenkins was not particularly easy. He managed to win the GOP nod, the real contest in this Tri-Cities (Bristol/Johnson City/Kingsport) district, with only 22 percent among a baker's dozen of Republicans. One of the challengers who lost to Davis, Johnson City Mayor Phil Roe, is trying again and has outraised the incumbent. Engineer Michael Sabri is also running. Whoever comes out of the gate this time will be favored over the Democrats' nominee, either municipal employee Michael Donihe or teacher Rob Russell. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 11.0 GOP): Jimmy Duncan is a safe Republican in a historically Republican district based in the Knoxville area. The Democrats will choose from either David Ryan Hancock or Bob Scott, but neither will make even a bump on the noggin. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): Zach Wamp's district is mostly comprised of the Chattanooga area, which tends to be more Democratic compared to the rest of East Tennessee. Wamp will only face minimal primary opposition from insurance agent Teresa Sheppard and minimal general opposition from frequent candidate Doug Vandagriff. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 2.8 GOP): This district is typical of swing districts in Tennessee: socially conservative but willing to vote Democrat. The incumbent, Lincoln Davis, is one of the more conservative Democrats covering rural territory in the state's east central and southern portions. A potentially dark horse GOP bid exists in Monty Lankford, a hospital equipment entrepreneur who has been competitive with Davis thus far but who is facing a pretty bad year for elephants everywhere. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 6.8 DEM): While a relatively competitive district on paper, the Democrats have the edge here due to the Democratic stronghold of Nashville and its blue core of academics, union votes and government employees wary of small-government conservatives. The incumbent, Jim Cooper, should have no trouble getting re-elected against business consultant Gerard Donovan. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 3.5 GOP): The dean of Tennessee's congressional delegation, Bart Gordon came to Congress in 1984 to succeed successful U.S. Senate candidate/eventual Vice President Al Gore and now chairs the House Science and Technology Committee. The GOP is not fielding a candidate in this rural central Tennessee district that has been becoming more suburban in nature. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 7 (S-Factor 13.3 GOP): This is perhaps the most Republican district in the state outside of East Tennessee, connecting eastern suburbs of Memphis with several suburbs of Nashville. The incumbent, Marsha Blackburn, is facing a primary challenge from Shelby County Register Tom Leatherwood, but whoever wins will face either Randy Morris or Jim Tomasik, the latter of whom is also an activist for the FairTax, usually a cause of rabid conservative talk radio listeners. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 8 (S-Factor 0.5 DEM): Rural West Tennessee dominates this district, including such towns as Union City and Jackson, the latter town of which is named for the former President. Only one person has filed to run for this seat: incumbent John Tanner. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 23.0 DEM): This is the most liberal district in the state, centered around Memphis. While former congressman Harold Ford, Jr. bolted to run for the U.S. Senate (and came close), Steve Cohen defeated a truckload of other Democrat candidates to win his party's nomination, and in effect the general election becoming the first Jewish congressman in Tennessee. Despite being represented by a Democrat in a very blue, heavily African-American district, some African-American Democrats still continue to hold reservations about Cohen, who has even drawn criticism from local African-American ministers due to his support for a hate-crimes bill. A host of black candidates, including attorney Nikki Tinker, are running against Cohen in the Democrat primary. No Republicans are running. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Alabama.