Chris Bell 2.0 (er...4.0)

The race to replace former State Senator Kyle Janek is growing. Three Republicans are running: former Bush 41 appointee and low-tax activist Austen Furse, GOP precinct chair (nothing significant; there are several) Grant Harpold, and former Harris County felony court judge Joan Huffman.

The fourth candidate pops up, this time a Democrat. The name: Chris Bell.

That's right, the former gubernatorial candidate, one-term congressman, and one-time mayoral candidate is throwing his hat into the ring. In order to win without going to a runoff, Bell will have to amass 50 percent of the vote, and his strengths lie in name recognition and background. The question is, how will he outrun the GOP establishment? The 17th State Senate District, which Janek vacated recently, looks so irregular on paper that it practically resembles a splatter from a Jackson Pollock painting. Don't believe me? Here's the lowdown:

• The district begins in Harris County, in the Bellaire/Meyerland/West University Place area near the Texas Medical Center. This area is relatively pink (slightly GOP but willing to vote Democrat sometimes), and tends to be socially liberal.
• After taking in a chunk of the Sharpstown area, it connects along a stretch of Richmond Avenue beginning west of Voss Road. It then takes in much of west Houston west of Dairy Ashford south of I-10 and west of State Highway 6 north of I-10, including the Alief area, the Energy Corridor, and much of the Katy area within Harris including the Barker Reservoir. Significant GOP areas exist here, though Alief tends to be more Democratic.
  
• The district goes southward into Fort Bend County, taking in Meadows Place, much of Sugar Land (myself included) and southern Missouri City, along with a large rural expanse in the southeast of the county that houses the Brazos Bend State Park and the George Observatory. This is a largely Republican area with traces of ethnic diversity.
  
• A significant western shaving of Brazoria County is thrown into the district, including the Lake Jackson and Freeport areas as well as smaller communities such as Sweeny and Surfside Beach. It is a relatively Republican area.
• Galveston County is the next stop in this district, including the heavily Democratic enclave of Galveston Island. And yes, the Galveston Seawall is in this district. A piece of Texas City is thrown into this district as well. The heavily Democratic base here includes unionized refinery workers.
• Finally, the district goes along a stretch of State Highway 87 to include Port Arthur, which boasts a significant African-American population and tends to vote Democrat.
  

While 3-to-2 Republican on paper, a Democrat could conceivably win this seat (hence the boast of so-called "changing demographics"). After all, this was once the domain of State Senator Babe Schwartz, whose liberal-leaning oratory according to Texas Monthly was "the best entertainment the Capitol had to offer."

Now to think about it, how do the dynamics of this race shape up? Stay tuned...