The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part IX: Kentucky

Six days have passed...and this blog seems to be getting rather lonely. But now with eight states down, we now go to a state that is part Southern, part Midwestern...

KENTUCKY

The landscape of this state can be summed up in one word...Bluegrass. Many parcels of land across the state have this type of lawn which is also immortalized in its nickname, "The Bluegrass State". But bluegrass is far from the only natural sight in this state, with an extensive cave system (the longest in the world), and the most productive coalfield in America also present here. Kentucky's economy is diverse, playing host to agricultural staples such as horses and tobacco as well as industrial outputs including transportation, chemical products and machinery. Many automobiles are manufactured here from the Chevrolet Corvette to the Ford F-150. Two sporting events, thoroughbred racing (including the Kentucky Derby) and college basketball, dominate the state's sport culture.

Historically, the Democratic Party has dominated politics here, and a majority of registered voters here are Democrats, with a 20% advantage over Republicans. George W. Bush won this state both times, as did Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. With the exception of John F. Kennedy, since the Civil War, Kentucky has always been a deciding factor as to whether or not the next President of the United States is a Democrat as it is a traditional must-win state for Democratic candidates.

Not much competition can be expected in this state, where four out of its six congressional districts field Republicans. In 2007, Governor Ernie Fletcher was defeated for re-election by Democrat Steve Beshear, and the year before Anne Northup was one of many Republicans who lost to Democrats (John Yarmuth) in the congressional bloodbath of 2006. But with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell facing the previous unexpected possibility of defeat in a toxic GOP year, everything old appears to be new again.

District 1 (S-Factor 9.8 GOP): Western Kentucky (Paducah, Henderson, Hokpinsville) dominates this district, and before Ed Whitfield came ashore in the Republican Revolution of 1994, conservative Democrats dominated at the local, state and federal levels. Democrats continue to dominate at the local levels, but the socially conservative Whitfield should have no trouble getting past former non-profit executive Heather Ryan. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 12.3 GOP): Ron Lewis is not seeking re-election, two years after facing a spirited challenge from retired Army officer and former State Representative Mike Weaver who held Lewis to 55 percent of the vote in 2006. State Senators David Boswell and Brett Guthrie will pit each other against themselves in the general election, but Guthrie is the favored candidate to represent many of the most distant portions of Louisville Metro, parts of the "Bourbon Trail", and cities such as Bowling Green and Owensboro (not to mention the birthplace of one of my party's icons, Abraham Lincoln). Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 2.5 DEM): The most Democratic district in all of Kentucky lies here in the bulk of Louisville Metro, a swing district where John Yarmuth defeated then-incumbent Anne Northup in 2006. The Republican nomination was supposed to go to attorney and military reservist Erwin Roberts, but Northup re-entered the race after Roberts pulled out of the race due to a military mandate. Now, it is a far different story as Yarmuth is the incumbent while Northup, fresh off a 2007 loss in the gubernatorial primary to the now defeated Ernie Fletcher, may have to deal with the notion of the Yarmuth camp that she is a perennial dunce. Furthermore, Yarmuth has the early cash advantage. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 11.3 GOP): Geoff Davis narrowly survived a challenge from former Congressman Ken Lucas in 2006 in this conservative district that strectches from the northeast suburbs of Louisville all the way to Ashland, encompassing the suburbs of Cincinnati along the way. The Democrat nominee, physician Michael Kelley, has generated very little enthusiasm. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 7.8 GOP): In spite of all the controversy surrounding his constituents' pork (including a family entertainment center in his name and steering national security money towards his considerably safe district), no Democrat has filed to take on veteran 14-term Republican Hal Rogers, whose jurisdiction (the second-poorest district in America) spans the southeastern portion of the state, including Somerset, Morehead and Pikeville (Independent and Army Veteran Jim Holbert is the only challenger thus far). Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 6.3 GOP): Lexington and the capital city of Frankfort dominate this district, which is held by Democrat Ben Chandler, the grandson of former Baseball Commissioner, U.S. Senator and Governor Happy Chandler. The Republican nominee is attorney and Army veteran Jon Larson, but it should have little effect on Chandler, a Blue Dog. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Minnesota.