The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXXIII: West Virginia

Last week, a sweltering trip through Arizona yielded two races targeted by Democrats and another pair being pined for by Republicans. This time, the Bullet Train to November roars through a state that splits across several regions, that is in other words simply Wild and Wonderful...

WEST VIRGINIA

Located in the heart of a region known as Appalachia that describes the Appalachian Mountains, West Virginia is noted for its mountainous terrain and natural beauty, hence its nickname The Mountain State. Before the English Colony of Virginia discovered what eventually became of this state, Native American tribes commonly used this area as a hunting ground; many man-made mounds exist to this day. While originally part of Virginia, this part of the state had its differences: with significant German and Ulster-Scots immigration from Pennsylvania existent during the early days of the United States as well as a secessionist movement aimed at creating the state of Westsylvania due to concerns regarding the unprofitability of slavery in this region. Eventually, various socioeconomic tensions accelerated by the region's pro-Union bent during the Civil War led to the formation and admittance of West Virginia on June 20, 1863 as the 35th state admitted to the Union.

West Virginia cuts across various regions (though it is entirely within the jurisdiction of the Appalachian Regional Commission), but it is commonly associated with the South due to its location that puts it largely to the south of the Mason-Dixon line. There are some areas of the state that align itself with other regions: northern areas intertwine with the Midwest as well as the Pittsburgh area, while its Eastern Panhandle is geographically considered part of the Washington, D.C. region. Economically, coal mining is a major source of the state's economy, as it is used to produce electricity for West Virginia and surrounding states. Some of West Virginia's more prominent past and present citizens: Confederate General Stonewall Jackson, televangelist T.D. Jakes, and Iraq War POW Jessica Lynch, whose ordeal and injuries have played a key role in recent criticism surrounding the war, as well as Basketball Hall of Famer Jerry West, whose silhouette during his All-Star career with the Los Angeles Lakers is outlined in the logo of the National Basketball Association.

In West Virginia, Democrats hold the upper hand at the state level with control of the governorship and both houses of the state legislature, and also at the congressional level with both Senate seats and two of the three House seats in their hands. It fits the description of a traditional blue-collar state: union membership is common here and coal interests have contributed to many of West Virginia's recent state (including the Governor's Mansion) campaigns. However, West Virginia has recently trended towards the GOP in the race for the White House, electing George W. Bush in 2000 and again in 2004, winning the latter by a larger margin. While polling in West Virginia has shown John McCain slightly outperforming Barack Obama this year, a bad economic situation nationally will not make a win here easy. Senator Jay Rockefeller, a Democrat in an otherwise moderate-to-liberal Republican political family, is up for reelection this year and heavily favored, and the same situation can be said for pro-life Governor Joe Manchin. Meanwhile, one member of its congressional delegation is being challenged.

District 1 (S-Factor 5.5 GOP): And no, it's not Alan Mollohan who's facing a challenge; he has no major party opposition in this northern West Virginia (Clarksburg, Morgantown, Parkersburg, Wheeling) district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 4.8 GOP): Shelley Moore Capito is a pro-choice Republican representing a district based in Charleston as well as West Virginia's share of the Washington, D.C. suburbs (Martinsburg). The Democrats targeted this seat with State Senator John Unger, who then surprisingly dropped the ball by pulling out of the race. But Democrats still have a sizable candidate in Anne Barth, a former state director for venerable U.S. Senator Robert Byrd. The D-Trip is watching this race closely and as of last June (September reports have yet to show up) Barth has raised $425K and $205K in respective individual and PAC donations. But Capito has more of it: $824K indie donors and $627K PAC donors. Cash on hand totals: Capito $1.24 million, Barth $353K. The Barth camp has a challenge: the expensive Washington television market cuts into the district's eastern counties. For the Capito camp: a wishy-washy GOP climate aims to produce a tidalwave large enough to wipe out the incumbent. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 0.8 DEM): Longtime Democrat Nick Rahall, the chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee, will be heavily favored in his southern West Virginia (Bluefield, Beckley, Huntington) seat against sign company executive Marty Gearheart. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Connecticut.