The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XLVIII: Florida

With only six days left before America decides, the Bullet Train to November now heads southeast from the rugged terrain of Utah to a state marked by rapid growth, an economy of leisure, and a reputation for not being your normal swing state...

FLORIDA

Once home to Spanish, English and French settlements centuries ago, Florida became the 27th state admitted to the Union on March 3, 1845, and seceded just 16 years later to briefly join the Confederate States of America. Since returning to the Union following the end of the Civil War, Florida has emerged as one of the fastest-growing states in the country, having grown with each Census by over 20 percent over its history, and is now the fourth most populous state, on the verge of surpassing New York to become number three on the rankings of largest states within a few years.

The state's economy, the nation's fourth largest, is largely defined by a tourist economy of 60 million visitors annually; such attractions include amusement parks such as Walt Disney World, Busch Gardens, SeaWorld and Universal Orlando, Major League Baseball spring training particularly in the central portion of the state, cruise ship ports at the Port of Miami, auto racing events such as the Daytona 500, and hundreds of miles of beaches throughout the state. Other major industries include international banking in Miami, a large aerospace economy buoyed by the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, and agriculture including two-thirds of America's citrus production.

As opposed to its strongly Democratic past, present-day Florida is best defined as a swing state, having only voted for the Democrat in 1964, 1976 and 1996. South Florida, including the Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach areas which have a significant Jewish population, has traditionally voted more liberal and Democratic compared with the rest of the state, with a notable exception being its Cuban American population which has historically been more conservative and Republican in comparison. Meanwhile, northern areas of the state such as Pensacola and Jacksonville with significant military voting blocs as well as the Fort Myers area in southwest Florida tend to vote Republican. The swing area in Florida is along the burgeoning jurisdiction of Interstate 4, which connects the rather competitive Orlando and Tampa/St. Petersburg areas (though most of the suburbs in both metro areas tend to vote Republican whereas the larger cities are more Democratic). Senior citizens, who make up a quarter of the state's population, are also a key and growing voting bloc in Florida which makes issues such as retirement security highly important.

In the race for the White House, the 2000 election was especially controversial as recount proceedings dragged on into December of that year, with the final result being a 537-vote margin in favor of George W. Bush, who would also go on to win the 2004 election by a more comfortable five percent margin. This year, recent polls have been slightly favoring Barack Obama over John McCain for the state's 27 electoral votes, while several House seats across the state are facing some competition in one form or another.

District 1 (S-Factor 18.8 GOP): This is Joe Scarborough's old congressional district, based in Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach and Destin and largely influenced by military and veterans' issues. While Democrats have a plurality in this conservative district, it has proven to be favorable territory for Jeff Miller, who should have no troubling defeating Democratic businessman and Vietnam vet Jim Bryan. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 2.0 GOP): The capital city of Tallahassee and Panama City dominate this rather competitive district that has been held by Democrat Allen Boyd since 1996. Marketing executive Mark Mulligan is the GOP nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 16.5 DEM): This is the most unusual district outside of South Florida, taking in majority African-American segments of Jacksonville and Orlando, as well as parts of Gainesville. Corrine Brown, the only person ever to hold the seat since the creation of its current incarnation, is running unopposed. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 15.0 GOP): Ander Crenshaw will be favored for re-election in this conservative district based in Jacksonville and some of its surrounding areas including Atlantic Beach, Yulee, Lake City, and areas east of Tallahassee. Democrats will try with professional engineer and Navy vet Jay McGovern. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 4.5 GOP): Ginny Brown-Waite seized this district from Democrat Karen Thurman in 2002. It is based in the southern tail of the Nature Coast region that includes much of Tampa's northern suburban areas including Brooksville, Homosassa Springs and Zephyrhills. Her 2006 Democratic opponent, John Russell is running again. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): Cliff Stearns represents a district that includes Ocala and western areas of Jacksonville, as well as the portion of Gainesville that includes the University of Florida, Stearns is favored for re-election against Democratic entrepreneur and attorney Tim Cunha. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): Republican John Mica, chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, will be favored for re-election in this district, which stretches from St. Augustine southward to Palm Coast, Daytona Beach, and northern suburbs of Orlando including Deltona and Altamonte Springs, against Democrat Faye Armitage. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 8 (S-Factor 3.3 GOP): This competitive district, based in Orlando and some of its surrounding suburbs (Eustis, Conway, Ocoee), has been the domain of Republican Ric Keller since 2000. But Keller, who faced a close challenge from Democratic businessman Charlie Stuart in 2006, has alienated some voters in part due to his breaking of a pledge to serve no more than four terms, and faced another close call -- this time in the GOP primary -- against scandal-plagued radio talker Todd Long, winning with only 53 percent of the vote. As for the Democrats, Stuart lost this year's primary, but their nominee is of note: attorney and former telecom executive Alan Grayson is best known for his recent crusade against fraudulent contractors in Iraq. Grayson may also benefit from a growing Hispanic population (particularly Puerto Ricans). While Keller is not to be counted out, the prospects for reelection already are dimming, if they haven't already. Prediction: Tossup.

District 9 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): After succeeding his father Michael Bilirakis in 2006, incumbent Gus Bilirakis will be favored over attorney Bill Mitchell in this north suburban Tampa district. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 10 (S-Factor 1.3 DEM): Since 1970, Republican Bill Young has been the standard bearer in this swing district based in much of Pinellas County including St. Petersburg and some of its surrounding areas including Pinellas Park, Largo and Dunedin. Young will face Dunedin mayor Bob Hackworth. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 11 (S-Factor 11.8 DEM): Freshman Democrat Kathy Castor is safe in this district based in Tampa and St. Petersburg. She will easily defeat Republican architect Eddie Adams Jr., whom Castor defeated in 2006. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 12 (S-Factor 5.0 GOP): In this district centered in suburbs east of Tampa including Lakeland, Brandon and Winter Haven, Republican Adam Putnam, who first came to this district in 2001 as the youngest member of Congress and is now House Republican Conference Chairman, will be favored over Democratic Navy vet Doug Tudor. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 13 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): Something must be fishy about this Sarasota-centric district. In 2002, Katherine Harris, the Florida Secretary of State who became famous for her role in the 2000 election snafu, became the district's representative. Then, while Harris became the GOP U.S. Senate nominee -- and lost -- against incumbent Bill Nelson in 2006, Republican auto dealer Vern Buchanan barely held on to victory over Democratic banker Christine Jennings with a mere 369 votes. The recount, triggered by Jennings, dragged on into the new Congress. Jennings is running once again, but Buchanan will have the advantages of incumbency and favorable polling numbers aiding him in this fairly competitive district. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 14 (S-Factor 9.8 GOP): The name Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy, while it is a rather unusual name, has some meaning in the early-20th century sports world. The first Connie Mack was the longtime two score and a half manager of the Philadelphia Athletics long before they moved to California, and the second served as an executive for that team before going into real estate in Fort Myers. The third became a U.S. Senator from Florida, and the fourth came to Congress in 2004 to replace then-newly minted CIA Director Porter Goss in this strongly Republican Fort Myers-based district and is now heavily favored to defeat businessman Robert Neeld. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 15 (S-Factor 3.8 GOP): After 14 years in Congress, Republican Dave Weldon has decided to go back to his medical practice, putting his district situated in such cities as Vero Beach, Kissimmee and Melbourne in play. Republicans have recruited State Senator Bill Posey for this seat, while physician Steve Blythe has the Democrats' nomination. The D-Trip is not watching this race. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 16 (S-Factor 2.5 GOP): This historically Republican district that serves as a boundary of sorts between Central and South Florida, going from Port Charlotte to Punta Gorda and parts of the West Palm Beach area, became competitive in 2006 when then-incumbent Republican Mark Foley came under the microscope for sending explicit e-mails to former Congressional pages and turned what would have evolved as an "emerging race" by the D-Trip in 2006 into a full-fledged battle as Foley resigned. Democratic entrepreneur Tim Mahoney wound up benefitting, defeating Republican State Representative Joe Negron, whose name could not replace Foley on the ballot despite holding Mahoney to 49.5 percent and a margin of 1.8 percent. On the GOP side, Negron is not running again, but the Elephant Stampede is still targeting this seat with Army vet and attorney Tom Rooney, who beat two other well-funded challengers to win a very expensive primary. The nastiness enabled Mahoney to become a slight favorite until revelations that Mahoney himself had an affair with a mistress (and at least one other) began to emerge. Now Mahoney is damaged goods with only a few days remaining 'til the Sunshine State decides. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 17 (S-Factor 35.3 DEM): This is one of two majority African-American districts in South Florida, taking in northern areas of Miami and stretching northward to Hollywood and Pembroke Pines. Kendrick Meek is unopposed. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 18 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): Ileana Ros-Lehtinen made history in 1989 by becoming the first Cuban American woman ever to be elected to Congress. Her district covers much of Miami, Coral Gables and the Florida Keys. The D-Trip is targeting this race with Colombian American businesswoman Annette Taddeo, who has raised an impressive warchest of $966K and has the backing of the D-Trip. But Ros-Lehtinen's warchest is more significant ($1.64 million and $730K cash on hand versus Taddeo's COH of $5K) and polls have shown Ros-Lehtinen with a double-digit advantage. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 19 (S-Factor 20.8 DEM): Robert Wexler will be heavily favored for re-election in his strongly Democratic West Palm Beach-area district (which also includes Greenacres, Margate and Coral Springs) against building contractor Edward Lynch. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 20 (S-Factor 17.8 DEM): Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who first represented this Fort Lauderdale-area district (which also includes Aventura, Dania Beach, Weston and Wilton Manors) in 2004 to succeed unsuccessful U.S. Senate candidate Peter Deutsch, will be favored for re-election without a Republican opponent. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 21 (S-Factor 5.8 GOP): Democrats are targeting all three of South Florida's Cuban-American districts, and of the three, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, whose district is situated in areas west of Miami including Hialeah, Kendall and Olympia Heights, is the most vulnerable. Former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez is running a strong campaign against the eight-term incumbent in a race that pits two of the most prominent Cuban American leaders in all of South Florida. On the financial front, Diaz-Balart has amassed a warchest of $2.74 million and has $2.63 million cash on hand (the latter from previous races), while Martinez has been competitive with $1.77 million raised and $693K in the bank. For the most part, Diaz-Balart has been barely ahead of Martinez with polling margins generally in the single digits. But in a poor GOP climate, Martinez could pull off an upset. Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 22 (S-Factor 3.3 DEM): Being the former State Senate Minority Leader and the best-financed challenger in the nation in 2006, Ron Klein was the perfect candidate for Democrats in this district that stretches southward along the Atlantic Ocean from West Palm Beach to Boca Raton. Klein used his enormous warchest which eventually amounted to $4.19 million to take out longtime Republican Clay Shaw. This year, he will face Iraq War vet Allen West, a retired Army officer and African American Republican whose fundraising has struggled to keep pace with Klein (the incumbent has $3.79 million in receipts and $1.82 million cash on hand while West has only $476K in funds raised and $129K COH). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 23 (S-Factor 30.5 DEM): One bad apple spoiled the resume for Alcee Hastings, who was being sought for the chairmanship of the House Intelligence Committee, as revelations of his 1989 conviction for corruption and perjury that resulted in the loss of his federal judgeship came back to haunt him. But Hastings is a safe bet for reelection in this heavily Democratic, majority African American district situated in the Florida Everglades against med school professor and physician Marion Thorpe Jr. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 24 (S-Factor 3.0 GOP): This suburban Orlando/Space Coast district (Winter Park, Titusville, Port Orange) was drawn to elect then-Florida House Speaker Tom Feeney, who served in this position during the controversial 2000 Florida recount, in which Feeney was in charge of efforts to certify Florida's Republican electors to the Electoral College. Now Feeney is facing controversy over reports that, among other controversies, Feeney went to Scotland on a golfing trip paid for by disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. In fact, Feeney recently put out an ad apologizing for the trip. The D-Trip is targeting this seat with former State Representative Suzanne Kosmas whose warchest of $1.71 million in receipts has been competitive with Feeney's $1.99 million. However, with a Dem internal showing Kosmas with a double-digit lead (23 points to be specific) and the NRCC pulling the plug on Feeney, a pickup appears likely. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 25 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): This is the newest of the three Cuban-American seats in South Florida, situated in the southern end of the state between Fort Myers and Miami. Mario Diaz-Balart has represented this seat from the start (the district was created following the 2000 Census). The D-Trip is also targeting the seat, with the former chair of Miami-Dade's Democratic establishment, Joe Garcia, who also happens to be the former Executive Director of the Cuban American National Foundation. This profile has bolstered Garcia's campaign, which has amassed $1.48 million in total receipts. But the younger Diaz-Balart also has a strong warchest, boasting a total of $2.3 million raised and a huge cash on hand advantage: $1.62 million to Garcia's $235K. Like the race in the nearby 21st District, this race will also be close. Prediction: Leans GOP.

Next stop: 2 states left...and they are big ones!