The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXXVI: New Mexico

After passing through the vast corn fields and rampant populism of Iowa, the Bullet Train to November has now shifted southward to a state that sits just west of the home base of yours truly, a state with an enchanting history...

NEW MEXICO

The Land of Enchantment was originally inhabited by Paleo-Indians of the Clovis culture, who were eventually joined by various other Native American clusters such as the Anasazi and Mogollon. When Europeans explored this land in the 1500s, Navajos, Apaches and Utes along with Pueblo villages were present. In the 1540s, Francisco Vasquez de Coronado created a team of explorers to discover Marcos de Niza's described Seven Cities of Gold. In 1598, the Province of New Mexico was established, and that same year its first permanent European colony, San Juan de los Caballeros, was founded. Eventually, following the Mexican War of Independence, what was known as New Spain became part of Mexico in 1821, and areas north and east of the Rio Grande were ceded to the Republic of Texas in 1836 (In 1850, Texas ceded its share of this area in exchange for $10 million). In 1848, the Mexican government ceded its northern areas to the United States, of which New Mexico eventually became one of them on January 6, 1912, the 47th state admitted to the Union.

New Mexico is the sixth most sparsely populated state (15 for every square mile), but its demographic landscape is impressive. Spanish, Mexican and Native American cultures have played a major role in the culture of New Mexico. It has the largest percentage of Hispanics, both descendants of colonists and recent immigrants, and the third largest percentage (and fifth largest number) of Native Americans. New Mexico's diverse landscape is comprised of rosy deserts and mesas combined with forested mountains with snowy peaks, particularly in the northern areas of the state. The federal government ($2.03 for every tax dollar) plays a significant role in military spending (three Air Force bases, research labs at Los Alamos and Sandia, and the White Sands Missile Range), which contributes to the state economy along with tourism and oil and gas production. The state also has a slate of tax credits and assistance to promote business investment (particularly in the technology sector) in the state.

Politically, New Mexico tends to favor Democrats at the state level: half of the state's registered voters are Democrats, a third are Republicans, and the rest are clumped into other groups (third parties and independents). The Governor is a notable name in former United Nations Ambassador and Energy Secretary Bill Richardson, who ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008 but later pulled out after some poor showings in the early contests. At the presidential level, it is a bellwether state of sorts. New Mexico has only deviated from the national course twice since statehood: Gerald Ford in 1976 and Al Gore in 2000. George W. Bush only won the state by less than one percent in 2004, and this year the Land of Enchantment has been swinging towards Barack Obama with polls indicating favorable margins for the Democrat. In perhaps the most unusual fashion, the entire New Mexico congressional delegation is vacant as all three incumbents bolted to run for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring Republican Pete Domenici, leaving competitive races in two of the state's three seats.

District 1 (S-Factor 2.5 DEM): Of the three seats in New Mexico's now open congressional delegation, this is the most competitive seat, based in the Albuquerque area, the home base of centrist Republican Heather Wilson who vacated this seat to run for Pete Domenici's open Senate seat -- and lost. The Democrats are hungry for this seat with Albuquerque Councilor Martin Heinrich who beat a slew of other Democrats to win his party's nomination. Meanwhile, the Republicans have put up a top-shelf candidate in Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, who has been competitive with Heinrich on the money trail with over $1.5 million in receipts and $678K cash on hand, behind the nearly $2 million warchest of Heinrich (who trails White in cash on hand at $328K). Of the three districts in the Land of Enchantment, this is seen as the swing district. So far, the polls appear to be narrowly favoring Heinrich. Prediction: Tossup.

District 2 (S-Factor 5.5 GOP): This is the more conservative of the three New Mexico districts, based in southern New Mexico including Roswell, Alamogordo, Silver City, Las Cruces and Hobbs. Steve Pearce is the Republican nominee for Domenici's U.S. Senate seat, and that puts this district in the open column. The Republican nominee is Ed Tinsley, a restaurant chain owner who ran for this seat in 2002. The Democrats are fielding former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague, owner of a well servicing business. The fundraising numbers speak for themselves: $1.15 million individual donors in Teague's camp compared $1.04 million in Tinsley's, $1.26 million in personal funds from Teague compared to $735K out of Tinsley's pocket, and $456K cash on hand for Tinsley compared to $147K for Teague. Recent polls suggest a competitive race. Prediction: Tossup.

District 3 (S-Factor 6.0 DEM): Finally, there's this liberal-leaning but fairly competitive Santa Fe, Clovis and Farmington-based district, which Democrat Tom Udall is vacating to run as his party's nominee for Domenici's Senate seat. The Democrats have put up State Public Regulation Commission Chair Ben Ray Luján, who happens to be the son of State House Speaker Ben Lujan. Unlike the other two districts, there is nothing competitive about this seat. Republican contractor Dan East will try to make it so. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Delaware.