The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXXV: Iowa

After traversing through the prosperous towns of Connecticut, the Bullet Train to November now heads to one state that owns a special place in the lexicon of political populism, a very common sight in presidential years...

IOWA

Named for a Siouan tribe known as the Ioway people who once occupied this landscape, Iowa was hundreds of decades ago (over 13,000 years ago) a glacial landscape comprised of Native American hunters. When European explorers first came here, the same hunters had become settled farmers, and demographics changed dramatically with the arrival of the explorers, their associated traders, and new tribes. French citizens first discovered the state, followed by American settlers in 1833 who came mostly from the nearby Midwestern states of Illinois, Missouri and Indiana, and Iowa became the 29th state admitted to the Union on December 28, 1846.

Today, Iowa remains a major agricultural state (corn, soybeans, and dairy, among other products), though industry has also been successful here with farming equipment, chemical products, publishing and food processing among the more significant non-agricultural sectors. Insurance also plays a significant part in the economy of Des Moines, home to Principal Financial Group, the nation's leading 401(k) provider. Iowans of note include Arizona Cardinals quarterback and two-time NFL MVP Kurt Warner, actors Elijah Wood and Ashton Kutcher, 2008 Olympic gold medal (and individual all-around silver medal) gymnast Shawn Johnson, pioneering pollster George Gallup, who invented the Gallup poll, and Herbert Hoover, the 31st President of the United States, who was born and buried in West Branch.

Owing to its traditional populist politics that emphasize domestic issues such as the economy, Iowa is a swing state in presidential elections. Additionally, more ethanol is produced in Iowa than in any other state, which makes Iowa a key focal point in the ongoing energy debate. It voted Republican during the Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan eras, then voted for Democrats Michael Dukakis in 1988, Bill Clinton in the 1990s, and Al Gore in 2000. In 2004, it swung Republican, reelecting George W. Bush by a margin of less than one percent. The Hawkeye State holds the first presidential caucuses, where delegates (either at homes or at public gatherings) are selected to their parties' respective state conventions. The caucuses, along with the primary in New Hampshire, are considered key barometers of the presidential candidates' strength, as evidenced by Barack Obama's victory in the Democratic caucuses here which eventually led to his nomination for the White House. Obama is now leading John McCain (who finished fourth in his party's caucuses here) in some cases by double-digit margins. With Democrats expected to retain U.S. Senator Tom Harkin, the Donkey Brigade in Iowa is focusing more on the distant possibility of sweeping Iowa's House delegation after taking two seats from Republicans just two years ago.

District 1 (S-Factor 5.0 DEM): When Jim Nussle decided to run for Governor in 2006 (losing to Chet Culver, and now serving as the Director of the Office of Management and Budget), this Quad Cities (Davenport) and Waterloo-centric seat fell into the hands of Democrat Bruce Braley. Despite the fact that this is a fairly competitive seat on paper, State Senator David Hartsuch, a last minute entry into the race, has struggled to raise funds. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 6.8 DEM): Jim Leach was well respected in Congress and in this otherwise fairly Democratic district, where his moderate Republican views prevailed in this southeastern Iowa district that includes Cedar Rapids and Ottumwa. But the 2006 wave proved to be too much as Leach fell in a shocking upset to political science professor Dave Loebsack, and what may have hurt him was his support of an anti-online gambling bill (a pet project of the right wing of the Vocal Fringe) as well as a generally poor climate for Republicans that year. While Leach is now one of Obama's Republican supporters, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, the former President of a State Medical Society, will attempt to take back this seat in a bad GOP stew. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 1.7 DEM): Longtime Democrat Leonard Boswell did not face an easy race in 2006, facing off against State Senator Jeff Lamberti and winning with only 52 percent of the vote. And Boswell, who voted for the PATRIOT Act (and its reauthorization four years later) as well as for the invasion of Iraq, recently fought off a challenge from liberal former State Representative and 2006 gubernatorial candidate Ed Fallon with 61 percent of the vote. Republican Kim Schmett, an attorney and former congressional aide, will try to unseat Boswell in this competitive Des Moines-centric district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 0.5 DEM): Republican Tom Latham has generally been reelected without considerable trouble to this northern Iowa district situated in Ames, Fort Dodge and Mason City as well as suburban counties outside Des Moines. Democrats have a dark horse candidate in Becky Greenwald, the chair of the Democratic establishment in Dallas County, which comprises of suburbs and rural areas west of the capital city. Obama's coattails could benefit Greenwald, but Latham should otherwise be favored. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 8.0 GOP): This is Iowa's most conservative district, based in western Iowa including Council Bluffs and Sioux City. Steve King has emerged as a conservative stalwart on such issues as illegal immigration. Former State Representative Rob Hubler is challenging King. Prediction: Solid GOP.

Next stop: New Mexico.