The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXXIV: Connecticut

Last time, the Bullet Train to November roared through the coal fields of West Virginia in search of potential competition that yielded one fairly competitive race. This time, the train roars through one of the nation's wealthiest states, a state that marked the early beginnings of the life of two recent Presidents...

CONNECTICUT

It is the state where Prescott Bush served as a U.S. Senator, where George H.W. Bush spent part of his childhood, and where George W. Bush was born. The state is known as the Constitution State due to its historic role in the formation of the United States Constitution based on the Fundamental Orders of 1638-39 which created the state's first formal government, though the state's key role in the United States' 1787 constitutional convention that led to the Connecticut Compromise which created a bicameral legislature now common in all but one state and in the United States Congress also serves as a basis for its nickname.

Connecticut's beginning can be traced to its inhabitation by the Mohegan tribe and its discovery in 1614 by Dutch explorer Adriaen Block, whose exploration led to the construction of a Dutch fort near what is now Hartford; this fort was abandoned in 1654. Three English colonies, Saybrook (1635, created at Old Saybrook by John Winthrop), Connecticut (1636, established at Hartford by Thomas Hooker), and New Haven (1638, based at New Haven and formed by John Davenport, among others), emerged during this time, with Saybrook merging with Connecticut in 1644 and the latter merging with New Haven to form one colony under a royal charter in 1662. This made Connecticut a crown colony, one of thirteen that revolted against the British during the American Revolution, and eventually the fifth state admitted to the Union, on January 9, 1788.

Present-day Connecticut has a relatively diverse economy that includes financial services (particularly in insurance and hedge funds), transportation (including nuclear submarines), military weaponry, scientific instruments, and agricultural products such as dairy, shellfish and tobacco, among other industries, and the state has one of the highest median incomes in the country at $60,551, fourth in the nation. Education is another key measure of life in Connecticut, with the world renowned Yale University in New Haven that has played a role in the formation of dozens of biotechnology firms, and the University of Connecticut that according to U.S. News and World Report has been New England's top-ranked public university for the last eight years. Besides a strong economic and educational pedigree, the Nutmeg State (this is another slogan) has had its share of Nutmeggers: actress Katherine Heigl, ESPN anchor Chris Berman, conservative commentators Ann Coulter and Laura Ingraham, actor Paul Giamatti, National Review founder William Buckley, Jr., Family Guy and American Dad! creator Seth MacFarlane, tennis star James Blake, and musician John Mayer, the latter two of whom attended high school together in Fairfield.

From a political perspective, most towns in Connecticut tend to prefer moderates regardless of their party affiliation; many voters here are not registered with either major party (44 percent to be specific). Connecticut has voted for Democrats in the presidential election since 1992, and in 2004, John Kerry won the state by a 10 percent margin. Democrats are strongest in larger cities such as Hartford, Bridgeport and New Haven, whereas the Republicans' strong spots can be spotted in affluent Fairfield County, rural Litchfield County, towns to the west of Hartford and in the Naugatuck River Valley's industrial towns. Currently, both of Connecticut's U.S. Senators caucus with the Democrats, with Chris Dodd serving as a Democrat and Joe Lieberman as an Independent Democrat following his loss in the 2006 Democrat primary to anti-war candidate Ned Lamont, and four out of Connecticut's five congressional seats are held by Democrats. At the state level, Republican Jodi Rell controls the governorship while both houses of the Connecticut General Assembly are controlled by veto-proof Democrat majorities. New England's lone Republican Congressman is situated in this state, and Democrats will be working overtime to color the entire region blue as Republicans field dark horse attempts to take back two seats it lost in 2006.

District 1 (S-Factor 13.8 DEM): This is what I would call the ESPN district, situated in the largely Democratic Hartford area and surrounding suburbs, including Windsor Locks, Newington, and ESPN's home city of Bristol. John Larson, the fifth highest ranking House Democrat (he is Vice Chair of the House Democratic Caucus), will be favored against West Hartford Town Councilman Joseph Visconti. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 7.5 DEM): Joe Courtney had the closest victory of any incumbent, winning by a mere 83 votes against Rob Simmons in this eastern Connecticut seat that includes such towns as Groton, Waterford, New London, Norwich and Storrs. The Republican opponent, attorney and retired naval officer Sean Sullivan, has struggled in the fundraising department despite his background as a former Commander of the naval submarine base in New London that was saved from the wrath of the Base Realignment and Closure Commission (BRAC): he has raised $305K in individual donors and has $155K cash on hand money versus Courtney's respective totals of $1.06 million and $1.44 million. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 11.5 DEM): The New Haven area dominates the heavily Democratic district of nine-term Democrat Rosa DeLauro, who is expected to fend off Bo Itshaky, an acupuncturist by trade. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 5.5 DEM): It has not been easy for Connecticut Republicans in recent years (very sad), and it's not easy being the lone Republican in New England if you're Christopher Shays. This district is based in the Bridgeport and Stamford areas and includes the wealthy, historically Republican town of Greenwich. Politically, the district is favorable to moderates like Shays. But hungry Democrats, eager to shut the Elephant Stampede out of New England's congressional delegation, are targeting it once again, not with 2004 and 2006 opponent Diane Farrell, but with the Chair of the Greenwich Democratic Town Committee, Jim Himes, a former Goldman Sachs executive who now serves as an executive for a non-profit organization that specializes in low-income housing. The totals tell the tale of a competitive race. Individual donors: Himes leads Shays $1.94 million to $1.71 million, PAC money: Shays outpaces Himes $607K to $138K, and when it comes to cash on hand, Shays has more: $1.7 million versus $1.25 million for Himes. This will be a fight worth watching. Prediction: Tossup.

District 5 (S-Factor 3.8 DEM): This historically Republican seat is Connecticut's most conservative district, and even it voted for John Kerry, albeit by 1100 votes in 2004. The incumbent, Democrat Chris Murphy, came in to the picture by knocking off longtime Republican Nancy Johnson, whose negative ad strategy (a dirty tactic that is the product of the Vocal Fringe) backfired in a district that stretches from New Britain and Meriden westward to towns in the Farmington Valley and Litchfield Hills such as Waterbury, Danbury and Torrington. The GOP is fighting back with State Senator David Cappiello, who has raised respectable amounts of individual and PAC donations at $617K and $148K. But a huge hurdle exists in Murphy's warchest: $1.45 million in indie donors and $798K in PAC money. But even in an affluent state like this, money can't but you a congressional seat. Or can it? At this point, Murphy is in the catbird's seat. Prediction: Favor DEM.

Next stop: Iowa.