The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XLVII: Utah

With just under a week left before America goes to the polls, the Bullet Train to November crosses into a western state marked by diverse topography and a common leap of faith...

UTAH

The 45th state admitted to the Union (January 4, 1896), Utah is one of the fastest growing states in the country, having only grown by less than 10 percent once, in the 1940 Census when it grew by 8.4 percent from 1930. In fact, the state as of 2007 grew by 18.5 percent compared to its population in 2000. The state's beginnings are traced to Brigham Young, leader of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, who led Mormon pioneers to what eventually became Salt Lake City, now the capital of Utah. Today, the Mormon Church makes up around three-fifths of adult Utahns. The Beehive State contains a variety of geographical features, including the Wasatch and Uinta mountain ranges in the north, the Four Corners Monument at its southeast corner, the valleys and basins of the Wasatch Front (home to three-quarters of the state's population), five national parks (Arches, Bryce Canyon, Canyonlands, Capitol Reef, and Zion), and the Great Salt Lake, the largest salt lake in the western hemisphere. And in a state where the motto is Industry, the economy is powered by information technology, ranching, mining (including coal), petroleum refining, government services, and tourism, from the powdery snows of the Wasatch Range's ski resorts to the Sundance Film Festival. In 2002, Salt Lake City hosted the Winter Olympics.

Utah's large Mormon population and dynamic economy makes it a stronghold for the Republican Party. In fact, Democrats last carried Utah in the 1964 landslide by President Lyndon B. Johnson over Republican candidate Barry Goldwater, and in 2004 it was George W. Bush's best state, winning its five electoral votes with 71.5 percent of the vote. Given the conservative nature of the state's political lexicon, Democrats in the state tend to be more conservative than the national party. This year, Utah is expected to go to John McCain in the Electoral College, Jon Huntsman, Jr. is heavily favored to win another term as Governor, and the congressional delegation is predictable in partisan terms -- with a new name in one case.

District 1 (S-Factor 20.5 GOP): Rob Bishop should be heavily favored for re-election in this strongly conservative district that covers northwestern Utah, including the entire Great Salt Lake and its surrounding environs including Ogden, Layton, Logan and Tooele as well as northwest Salt Lake City. The Democrats are fielding Morgan Bowen, a former corporate executive who is now a teacher for a Mormon seminary. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 15.8 GOP): This is also a strongly conservative district, but not as much as the other two, containing the capital city of Salt Lake City as well as eastern and southern areas such as Murray, Sandy, Moab and St. George. Incumbent Democrat Jim Matheson will be favored for another term against homebuilder Bill Dew. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 25.0 GOP): Immigration turned out to be Chris Cannon's Achilles' heel in this cycle as the incumbent Republican went down in defeat against Jason Chaffetz, a former Chief of Staff to Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. and former BYU football player who has a rather colorful political past: he once served as a statewide co-chairman of the 1988 presidential bid of Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis, and later converted to the GOP after the campaign was over. Chaffetz, whose father was briefly married to Dukakis' wife, is now heavily favored to win this seat over Democratic professor and TV journalist Bennion Spencer in a district that stretches southward from outlying areas around Salt Lake City such as West Valley City and Provo to Richfield in west central Utah. Prediction: Solid GOP.

Next stop: Florida.