The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XLVI: North Carolina

In eight days, America will be deciding who will go to the White House, Congress and everywhere else in between. Today, the Bullet Train to November heads into the homestretch heading to a state that was once part of the Solid South and has now emerged as a prosperous, diverse state...

NORTH CAROLINA

Situated on the Atlantic Seaboard and stretching westward to the Appalachian Mountains, North Carolina has emerged into one of the largest states in the Union, having experienced double-digit population growth since Reconstruction, a fact reflected in the 2000 Census where the population of the Tar Heel State swelled by over 1.4 million, or 21 percent. Historically a rural state, North Carolina has emerged into a growing, diverse and affluent state with emerging numbers of Hispanic and Asian immigrants as well as transplants from across the country transforming the state as a whole. Charlotte and Raleigh have become major economic centers with jobs in a variety of service sectors such as banking in Charlotte and biotechnology in Raleigh. On the agricultural front, it is the nation's leading producer of tobacco, and also counts dairy products, nursery stock and sweet potatoes among its outputs. Not all economic news is positive; its textile and furniture sectors, two historically strong suits of North Carolina's economy, have experienced a downturn due to jobs moving overseas which have impacted many of the state's small towns.

Politically, North Carolina, the 12th state admitted to the Union on November 21, 1789, was once considered part of the Democrats' Solid South, but it is now a Republican-leaning state, having voted Republican since 1968 in all but one case: 1976, when it gave its electoral votes to Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia (the western edge of North Carolina makes up part of Georgia's northern border). At the state level, Democrats hold their own with the Governor's Mansion, a majority in the state legislature, and a 7-6 majority in the state's congressional delegation. This year, John McCain and Barack Obama will do battle for the state's 15 electoral votes, while the race for Governor pits Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory against one another, and Elizabeth Dole fights to defend her Senate seat against State Senator Kay Hagan. In the House, two races are being watched, one is a real race and the other is a dark horse.

District 1 (S-Factor 9.3 DEM): This district, based in such eastern North Carolina cities as Rocky Mount, Kinston, New Bern and Roanoke Rapids, is about equally split in demographics between Anglos and African Americans (with a five percent advantage for the latter group) and is favorable for Democrats. The incumbent, Democrat G.K. Butterfield, is heavily favored over Republican businessman Dean Stephens. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 2.5 GOP): Democrat Bob Etheridge should have no trouble dispatching Republican contractor Dan Mansell in this south Triangle area district that covers the southern and eastern areas outside Raleigh as well as a portion of the capital city itself. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 15.0 GOP): Walter Jones is a former Democrat who became a Republican after an unsuccessful 1992 congressional bid and won this seat in the 1994 GOP landslide. But some conservatives were turned off by the fact that Jones, who previously had supported the war in Iraq and even went as far as leading the effort to relabel french fries as "freedom fries" in response to opposition by France, now rallied against the war. That prompted a challenge from Onslow County (Jacksonville) Commissioner Joe McLaughlin, but Jones prevailed with 60 percent of the vote. Now Jones is heavily favored for re-election in his eastern North Carolina (Jacksonville, Greenville, Morehead City and the Pamlico Sound) district against USMC vet and meteorologist Craig Weber. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 5.5 DEM): This fairly Democratic district that connects the Triangle area cities of Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill is being sought after by businessman B.J. Lawson, a libertarian Republican who is running in a district that has traditionally voted Democrat. But Lawson, a businessman and physician by trade, will have a tough time trying to get past longtime incumbent David Price, who lost this seat once to a Republican in '94 -- and got it back in '96. The Ron Paul crowd will definitely be watching this race as a dark horse opportunity. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 15.8 GOP): Virginia Foxx came to Congress in 2004 when this northwestern district stretching from Boone and Mount Airy to the suburbs of Winston-Salem was vacated by eventual U.S. Senator Richard Burr. Teacher Roy Carter is the Democrat nominee. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 17.3 GOP): Longtime Republican Howard Coble will be favored for another term against med school professor Teresa Sue Bratton in this Piedmont Triad district wrapped around Greensboro that stretches southward to Pinehurst. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 2.3 GOP): While competitive on paper, this district based in Wilmington area should remain safely in the hands of Democrat Mike McIntyre. The Republican nominee is airline pilot Will Breazeale, a veteran of the Iraq War. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 2.5 GOP): Robin Hayes faced a nailbiter in this swing district that covers southern areas of North Carolina between the Charlotte and Fayetteville areas. Teacher and former textile worker Larry Kissell held the incumbent, hurt by his last-minute vote for CAFTA that he initially opposed until House leadership urged him to change his vote (which was the decider in a 217-215 decision), to 329 votes in 2006. This year, Kissell is running again and recent polling has been favorable towards the Democrat, while Hayes leads Kissell in funds, $3.15 million to $1.16 million. Which side has the mojo? Prediction: Tossup.

District 9 (S-Factor 12.5 GOP): Sue Myrick has had no trouble winning in this heavily Republican district based in Charlotte and some of its surrounding suburbs such as Gastonia, Mint Hill and Belmont. Businessman Harry Taylor is the Democrat-in-waiting. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 10 (S-Factor 14.8 GOP): Patrick McHenry represents this heavily Republican district based in west central parts of North Carolina including Hickory, Mooresville, Lenoir and Shelby. Democrat Dan Johnson, an attorney by trade and a former congressional aide, is running a dark horse campaign against the two-term incumbent and has more cash-on-hand than McHenry: $398K to $362K despite McHenry outraising Johnson, $1.42 million to $626K). However, the D-Trip is highlighting this race on its Red to Blue slate, even though polling has for the most part favored McHenry. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 11 (S-Factor 6.3 GOP): Democrat Heath Shuler was a star quarterback at the University of Tennessee before the arrival of Peyton Manning. But in the NFL as the quarterback of the Washington Redskins, Shuler stumbled and was even called out by ESPN as the all-time ninth biggest bust in the history of the NFL Draft. Shuler is now back in Washington, after knocking off Republican incumbent Charles Taylor in 2006. His western North Carolina district that is centered on Asheville is conservative by nature, but Shuler has managed to steer ahead of the course due to his somewhat conservative voting record, particularly in regards to social issues. Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower is the elephant-in-waiting. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 12 (S-Factor 13.3 DEM): This was the poster child for gerrymandering in the 1990s. Following the 1990 Census, the Justice Department ordered the creation of majority African-American districts (to comply with the Voting Rights Act) mostly in the South. One such district was this one which was drawn to take in majority black areas across the state in Charlotte, the Piedmont Triad (Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point) and the Triangle (Raleigh/Durham). That version, criticized as "political pornography" by the Wall Street Journal, unconstitutional in Shaw v. Reno (in 1993) and triggered another redraw in North Carolina and other states. From the beginning (1992), the district's representative has been Mel Watt, who is heavily favored for re-election against retired businessman Ty Cobb Jr. in this ethnically split (47 percent white, 45 percent black) district that now connects African-American population centers in Charlotte and Greensboro. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 13 (S-Factor 3.3 DEM): Meanwhile, parts of Raleigh and Greensboro are connected by this district that is fairly competitive, but has been represented by Brad Miller since it was created in 2002. Former State Senator Hugh Webster is the Republican-in-waiting. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Utah.