Friday, October 24, 2008

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XLIV: Nebraska

After traversing across the oceanic landscape of New England via Massachusetts and Rhode Island, the Bullet Train to November is roaring west this time, heading to a state in the heartland with perhaps the most unusual state legislature of any in America...

NEBRASKA

The 37th State admitted to the Union on March 1, 1867, Nebraska marks the beginning of the Arbor Day holiday, and Nebraska City is home to the headquarters of the National Arbor Day Foundation. The state's economy revolves around an agricultural sector focused on beef, soybeans, corn and pork and also on such manufacturing and service industries as telecommunications, freight transport, and insurance. While Hastings marks the birthplace of Kool-Aid, and CliffsNotes originated out of Rising City, Omaha, the largest city in the state, is home to one of the world's wealthiest persons, Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett, whose holdings range from GEICO insurance and Dairy Queen restaurants to Benjamin Moore paints and one of the largest furniture chains in my home base, Star Furniture.

Since 1940, Democrats have only carried Nebraska in the electoral college once -- in 1964 during Lyndon B. Johnson's landslide. In 2004, George W. Bush won the Cornhusker State with 66 percent of the vote and this year is expected to be no different with John McCain favored to win comfortably here even as his campaign is running into obstacles of various sorts. Two things come to define Nebraska politics: it is the only state in the Union with a unicameral, or one house, legislature, and also the only nonpartisan state legislature as well. Additionally, it is one of two states that splits its electoral votes -- two to the statewide winner and the rest by congressional district. This situation has yet to occur. In 2008, one House seat is up for grabs courtesy of a repeat challenger.

District 1 (S-Factor 11.0 GOP): The state capital of Lincoln as well as the eastern Nebraska cities of Beatrice, South Sioux City, Fremont and Norfolk fall into this heavily Republican district. Jeff Fortenberry will be favored over Iraq War vet Max Yashirin. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 8.8 GOP): Omaha dominates this district which has been held by Republican Lee Terry since he first won it in 1998. In 2006, Terry was held to 55 percent against businessman Jim Esch, who is running as the Democrat nominee once again this year. A Dem internal suggests a competitive race with the Democrat trailing by only one point. Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 22.8 GOP): Adrian Smith did not win the former seat of former Nebraska Cornhuskers football coach Tom Osborne (who ran unsuccessfully for Governor) easily in 2006, as Smith faced an unexpectedly competitive race against Yale-educated ranch hand and professor Scott Kleeb, but came out a winner anyway with 55 percent. Kleeb is now running for Chuck Hagel's open U.S. Senate against former Governor and U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns, while Smith is now favored to defeat former Grand Island School Board Member Jay Stoddard. Prediction: Solid GOP.

Next stop: Arkansas.

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