The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXVII: Oregon

The Bullet Train to November has left the bedroom communities of New Jersey and is now headed from the East Coast all the way to the West Coast, to a state with a diverse landscape and rather quirky sense of politics...

OREGON

Once discovered by Lewis and Clark in their exploration of the West, Oregon later fell into the hands of Great Britain who recognized it as the "Columbia District" (where the Hudson's Bay Company operated a fur-trading business). Eventually, the United States (who referred to the land as "Oregon Country") became interested in the region, and despite the possibility of war over the boundaries of the United States and British North America, the Oregon Treaty of 1846 designated the boundary between the two countries at the 49th parallel of north latitude from Minnesota westward. The Oregon Territory was created in 1848 with boundaries also consisting of present-day states Washington, Idaho and parts of Montana and Wyoming. In 1853, the Washington Territory was created in areas north of the lower Columbia River and along the 46th parallel east of it, and on February 14, 1859, minus its remaining eastern portions, Oregon was admitted to the Union as the 33rd State.

Today, Oregon's landscape is defined by one of North America's largest rivers, the Columbia River, which is the only river that cuts across the Cascade Range, tall forests along the Coast Range (and its scenic coastline), the tectonic plate of Juan de Fuca Plate and its glaciated volcanoes in the Cascades (which poses the threat of earthquake and volcano-related activity), the Columbia Plateau and Blue Mountains in the east, and semi-arid desert in the southeastern portion of the state. Economically, agriculture, timber logging (it leads the United States in the production of softwood lumber), and high technology play a role in Oregon's economy, which also hosts the headquarters of Nike. Oregon is also a rather common shipping address for the mail order industry: Harry and David and Musician's Friend ship their respective gift baskets and musical instruments out of Medford. Film production is rather occasional in Oregon, and a prominent part of the TV landscape in recent memory hails from here: The Simpsons and Futurama are the work of Portland cartoonist Matt Groening.

As with the state of Washington, Oregon's political landscape is defined by the Cascades. West of the Cascades, and especially in the Willamette Valley region, voters tend to support Democrats, while areas east of the Cascades tend to vote Republican. In both 2000 and 2004, George W. Bush carried every county east of the Cascades and still lost Oregon. The state also has had its share of political oddities, such as the nation's only doctor-assisted suicide law, the legalization of medical marijuana, and a strong anti-sprawl bent. This year, Oregon U.S. Senator Gordon Smith, the only Republican U.S. Senator on the west coast will be up for re-election, and the retirement of one member of Congress has spurred interest from both parties.

District 1 (S-Factor 5.8 DEM): This district covers several suburban areas of Portland and northwest Oregon, including Beaverton and the counties of Clatsop, Columbia, Washington and Yamhill, as well as part of Portland. David Wu first won this seat by a 3% margin in 1998, but has had easier reelection bids ever since. The GOP candidate, businessman Joel Haugen, has instead decided to run as the candidate for the Independent Party (the state's third largest political party, which he also ran under). While Haugen remains a registered Republican (even though he endorsed Barack Obama), it is hard to see Wu in any sort of trouble with no elephant opposing him on the actual ballot. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 10.8 GOP): Greg Walden represents the bulk of Oregon, containing its eastern and central portions including Medford, Bend, Klamath Falls and all points east. The Democrats are fielding businessman Noah Lemas, but Walden is not in any sorts of trouble. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 17.3 DEM): Earl Blumenauer is safe against real estate investor and libertarian Republican Delia Lopez in this Portland-based district, which cuts across much of Multnomah County (including Portland) and northern Clackamas County. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 0.6 DEM): While this southwest Oregon (Eugene, Coos Bay) district appears competitive on paper, no Republican has filed to challenge longtime Democrat Peter DeFazio. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 0.8 DEM): Darlene Hooley is calling it a career in this rather competitive district, which cuts across the central coast of Oregon and stretches inland to the capital city of Salem, Corvallis, and suburbs of Portland (Lake Oswego, West Linn). Republicans have thought of this as a rare pickup opportunity in what is expected to be a down year for the GOP. But the Republican nominee, transportation executive and 2006 nominee Mike Erickson, fell under a cloud of allegations raised by a primary opponent (former state GOP chair Kevin Mannix) that Erickson funded an abortion for a former girlfriend (who later went public with the controversy, one that Erickson denies). While Erickson has the ability to fund his own race, the bad taste this allegation may have left in the mouths of district voters has for now edged the race towards the Democrat, State Senator Kurt Schrader. Prediction: Leans DEM.

Next stop: California.