The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXVIII: California

Sorry for the delay, but I am just now getting back to blogging after the onslaught of Hurricane Ike in my home base. Even though some back home are still in the dark (and I have personally decided to take an additional week of vacation from my usual spot), I am now ready to move on with the Nifty Fifty since time is of the essence. I still encourage you to help the victims of this storm and consider the hell they had to go through.

Last time, the Bullet Train to November roared through the state of Oregon, the most competitive of the three states in the lower 48 overlooking the Pacific Ocean. The train is now taking a short jog south to the largest state in the Union (in terms of population and electoral votes), one that lights up with the wonders of artificial intelligence in the north and the stars of American culture in the south...

CALIFORNIA

While California is not the largest state in the Union, it is home to more people than any other state, and has its share of geographical diversity. In particular, it boasts of expansive forestland that is only surpassed in size by Alaska, a powerful agricultural region that grows a third of America's food supply, vast deserts that produce some of the nation's hottest summertime temperatures, and a dramatic western boundary defined by the Pacific Ocean and coastal mountain ranges. Its roots can be traced to the colonization by the Spanish Empire of what was then known as Alta California (or Upper California) in the late 1700s. In 1821, an independent republic was formed including California as well as Mexico. A quarter-century later, in 1846, following the Bear Flag Revolt against Mexico, California was ceded to the United States following the Mexican-American War, and on September 9, 1850, California became the 31st state admitted to the Union. Shortly before its admittance, in 1848, the California Gold Rush kicked off an enormous influx of settlers and economic growth over several decades, culminating in California's position today amongst the world's ten largest economies.

Today, California is noted for its diversity: it boasts a significant Hispanic population, along with the largest Roman Catholic population of any state (10,079,310 as of 2000 to be exact), and large Jewish (including over half a million in Los Angeles), Muslim (including 100,000 in San Diego), Buddhist (as of 2000, 40% of American Buddhists could be found in Southern California) and Mormon (the largest outside of Utah) populations, as well as a growing Hindu population. Economically, the state is defined by technology in the Silicon Valley (San Jose), entertainment in Los Angeles (including Hollywood), aerospace and military operations in Southern California, and a strong agriculture economy aided by the Central Valley (including Fresno) and wine-growing regions situated in the Napa and Sonoma Valleys in the north and Paso Robles and Santa Barbara in the south. As of 2006, California's GDP is surpassed only by eight other countries, with computers as the state's top export.

While California is known for stars drawn to the bright lights of Hollywood and tech-savvy executives who hail from across the country to dawn upon the Silicon Valley, the Golden State has had its share of those who grew up here: actor/filmmaker Clint Eastwood, Apple co-founders Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak, actress Cameron Diaz, comedians Will Ferrell and Jack Black, High School Musical stars Zac Efron and Vanessa Hudgens, NASCAR driver Kevin Harvick, jazz musician Vince Guaraldi (who composed music for the Peanuts cartoon adaptations), film directors George Lucas and Robert Redford, late night talker Carson Daly, pro golfer Tiger Woods, brokerage executive Charles Schwab, sports radio talker Jim Rome, and former White House intern Monica Lewinsky, who became even more well-known for an infamous 1990s sex scandal involving President Bill Clinton that gained notoriety during his second term.

Politically, California has a diverse pedigree. It tends to lean towards Democrats in presidential elections; George H.W. Bush was the last Republican to win the Golden State in 1988. The state is governed in the form of a republic, with executive, legislative and judicial branches and direct participation by its electorate. While Democrats have had success at the ballot box recently, Republicans in recent years have had success at winning the Governor's Mansion, most recently with incumbent Arnold Schwarzenegger, a former bodybuilder and actor who is considered a moderate by national GOP standards. Democrats control both houses of the California State Assembly, which along with Arnold will have to grapple with a $16 billion budget deficit in the upcoming budget year. It was the first state to ban recognition of homosexual marriage (and the second to legalize it) and the second state to legalize abortion. Republicans are strongest in Orange County and in the San Joaquin Valley (Stockton, Modesto), while Democrats do best in Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay Area and in most coastal areas along the Pacific Ocean. The rest of state including the Inland Empire, the Central Valley (Fresno) and San Diego tends to be more competitive, and on Capitol Hill, Democrats have controlled both Senate seats with ease since 1992 while few if any congressional seats are considered at stake courtesy of an incumbent protection plan that was implemented following the 2000 Census. This year, the Elephant Stampede is attempting to take back one seat it lost in 2006, while the Donkey Brigade is focusing a flurry of mostly dark horse bids.

District 1 (S-Factor 10.3 DEM): Mike Thompson represents a liberal-leaning district situated along the northern coastline of California, and stretching all the way across the vineyards of the Napa Valley to suburbs west of Sacramento. The elephant-in-waiting for this race is businessman Zane Starkewolf, who is running as a "Green Republican", highlighting the strongly environmental nature of this district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 11.5 GOP): This strongly GOP seat stretches along Interstate 5 northward from suburbs and exurbs north of Sacramento to the Oregon state line, picking up the cities of Chico, Redding and Yuba City along the way. The district's longtime incumbent, Wally Herger, should be safe for a 12th term against Trinity County Supervisor Jeff Morris. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 6.3 GOP): The 9/11 attacks influenced the desire to return to Congress of former five-term Long Beach/Orange County congressman, two-term California Attorney General and 1998 GOP gubernatorial nominee Dan Lungren in 2004 after Doug Ose chose not to seek re-election. Lungren will once again be facing emergency room physician, Vietnam veteran and 2006 nominee Bill Durston in this district that cuts across suburbs of Sacramento (Folsom, Elk Grove), the northern and eastern edges of Solano County, and rural counties (Alpine, Amador, Calaveras) east of Sacramento. Durston has more individual donations than Lungren as of last June ($271K to $246K), but Lungren has even more cash-on-hand ($615K to $189K) than Durston. This race is confusing: it appears to be a competitive one, but Lungren has yet to experience tailspin. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 10.0 GOP): Longtime Republican John Doolittle, faced with controversies surrounding the Jack Abramoff bribery scandal, is calling it a career in his heavily Republican suburban Sacramento/Lake Tahoe district. The Republican nominee is State Senator Tom McClintock, a conservative star in California's GOP establishment who has run in a number of statewide races (most notably a third-place finish in the successful 2003 recall challenge to Gray Davis). The Democrats are once again fielding Charlie Brown, who held Doolittle to 49 percent in 2006. While Doolittle is no longer in the picture, the two are running competitive races (and a recent poll even shows Brown ahead), but the district's GOP nature will likely benefit McClintock. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 13.3 DEM): Sacramento dominates this largely Democratic district held by Doris Matsui, who inherited the seat from her deceased husband, Bob Matsui in 2005. Mortgage broker Paul Smith is the GOP nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 20.0 DEM): Normally, most suburban districts tend to be of a market-based orientation and hold a variety of social viewpoints (e.g. a district can be either pro-life and pro-gay or pro-choice and anti-gun control). On the latter, this one tends to be of a liberal bent, as it is a strongly Democratic one situated in Bay Area suburbs north of the Golden Gate Bridge in Marin and much of Sonoma counties. Incumbent Lynn Woolsey, the first member of Congress to call for the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, should have no trouble dispatching college professor Mike Halliwell. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 7 (S-Factor 19.0 DEM): It's practically impossible to imagine House Education and Labor Committee Chairman George Miller losing his strongly liberal Contra Costa/Solano-centric seat to human resources executive Roger Petersen. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 34.5 DEM): This is the home district of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and one of the most liberal ones as well as it is situated in much of San Francisco. The Republicans are fielding interior designer and party activist Dana Walsh who has raised respectable numbers ($361K in individual donations), but is still at a disadvantage given the enormous S-Factor for this district. Making this race even more interesting: anti-war activist Cindy Sheehan, whose loss of her son in the Iraq War triggered an insurgent anti-war protest, is running an independent candidacy here, but her fundraising numbers ($200K individual, $5K PAC) are paltry compared to Pelosi's relatively close position on the White House totem pole and ample funds ($1.16 million individual, $1.2 million PAC). Bottom line: Love her or hate her, don't expect Pelosi to receive her walking papers, but do expect a backlash of sorts from some voters -- left and right. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 35.8 DEM): While Nancy Pelosi's district is deep, deep blue, this district has a darker shade of it, as it is situated in heavily liberal Oakland and the liberal college town of Berkeley. Barbara Lee, the only member of Congress (House or Senate) to vote against authorizing military force in the wake of 9/11 and a strong supporter of a Department of Peace, will be heavily favored for another term against non-profit supervisor Charles Hargrave, the latest in a string of many elephants-in-waiting for this seat. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 10 (S-Factor 9.5 DEM): Ellen Tauscher was one of the first Democrats to knock off an incumbent Republican since the Republican Revolution in 1994, defeating Bill Baker in 1996 for one of the more conservative Bay Area seats (though it is still favorable to Democrats), situated largely in Contra Costa and Solano counties and jutting south to pick up Livermore in Alameda County. Businessman Nicholas Gerber is the GOP nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 11 (S-Factor 2.8 GOP): This is one of the seats the GOP hopes to pick up this year, as it is also one of a number of "scandal seats" that Democrats picked up largely because of the "culture of corruption" that Democrats used to bring down corruption-plagued Republican Richard Pombo, with wind energy executive Jerry McNerney picking up the seat. Republicans are now fighting back with Dean Andal, a former member of the State Board of Equalization (which is an elected commission dealing with tax policy). Andal maintains a significant amount of money on hand ($663K), but McNerney still has a significant cash advantage (with $1.38 million COH). The district covers such Bay Area and Silicon Valley suburbs as San Ramon, Pleasanton and Morgan Hill, as well as parts of the San Joaquin Valley around Stockton. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 12 (S-Factor 22.3 DEM): Following the tragic 1978 death of Leo Ryan in an ambush related to the Jonestown Massacre, committed at the hands of Jim Jones' infamous Peoples Temple in Guyana, Republican William Royer picked up this Bay Area seat for Ryan's term won in 1978, and later lost the seat in 1980 to Tom Lantos, the only Holocaust survivor ever to have served in Congress. The chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee early in this Congress, Lantos died on February 11, 2008 from complications due to esophageal cancer. The replacement turned out to be a survivor of the ambush that killed Leo Ryan: former Ryan staffer turned State Senator Jackie Speier, who is now heavily favored to hold this heavily Democratic seat, situated in west San Francisco and a significant chunk of San Mateo County (including Daly City and San Bruno), over former Public Utilities Commissioner Greg Conlon. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 13 (S-Factor 21.3 DEM): Pete Stark holds a unique position in Congress as the only openly atheist member of Congress; Unitarian Universalists, of which Stark is one of them, promote diverse views on the concept of deity. While this would stir controversy in a more conservative congressional district such as the one of yours truly, Stark is safe in this liberal East Bay district that includes such towns as San Leandro, Fremont and Hayward. Insurance agent Raymond Chui will try. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 14 (S-Factor 17.3 DEM): This Silicon Valley district was previously a bastion of moderate Republicanism, but the region's hostility to the Religious Right's 1992 rise in the GOP shifted this district, situated in such cities as Palo Alto (home of Stanford University) and Redwood City, toward the Democrats and in the process benefitted Anna Eshoo. This year, Eshoo will be heavily favored for another term over realtor Ronny Santana. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 15 (S-Factor 13.8 DEM): When libertarian Republican Tom Campbell decided to run for the U.S. Senate in 2000, Mike Honda stepped in to take this liberal-leaning district situated in areas of the Silicon Valley surrounding San Jose to its north and west, stretching southward from Milpitas to Campbell and Los Gatos, all the way to Gilroy. Businesswoman Joyce Stoer Cordi is the Republican nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 16 (S-Factor 15.8 DEM): Zoe Lofgren will be heavily favored for another term against businesswoman Charel Winston in this San Jose-centric district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 17 (S-Factor 16.5 DEM): The Monterey Bay region dominates this district, which Sam Farr has represented since taking over in 1994 when Leon Panetta resigned to become Chief of Staff to President Clinton. Farmer and real estate developer Jeff Taylor, who ran as a write-in candidate in 2006, is running again, this time with his name on the ballot. But it will not make any difference in this liberal-leaning district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 18 (S-Factor 3.5 DEM): This was Gary Condit's old seat, situated in the San Joaquin Valley around Stockton, Merced and Modesto. The scandalous 2001 disappearance of Washington intern Chandra Levy doomed Condit, who ended up losing his seat the following year to former Condit staffer Dennis Cardoza. Now in his third term, Cardoza will not have to worry about re-election. After all, he's running unopposed for his fourth. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 19 (S-Factor 9.0 GOP): Northern Fresno, along with various rural areas northward such as Turlock, Madera and Chowchilla, dominates the home base of unopposed incumbent George Radanovich. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 20 (S-Factor 5.0 DEM): Fresno and Bakersfield are the dominant focal points of this heavily Hispanic district, held by Jim Costa. Businessman Jim Lopez is running as the GOP nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 21 (S-Factor 11.8 GOP): Devin Nunes has served this district since its creation in 2002. Retired businessman Larry Johnson will try in this southern Central Valley (Visalia, Porterville) district, but will not get far. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 22 (S-Factor 15.3 GOP): Freshman Republican Kevin McCarthy has had a pretty good year in his first term: succeeding longtime Republican (and one-time boss) Bill Thomas, the then-chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, serving as co-chair of the committee that wrote this year's Republican platform, and now his Bakersfield-based district is safe for another term. No opponents have stepped forward. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 23 (S-Factor 9.5 DEM): Lois Capps inherited this moderate-to-liberal district from her deceased husband, former Congressman Walter Capps, in 1998. It is a coastal district, wrapping around the coastlines surrounding San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and Oxnard. The Republican nominee is financial planner Matt Kokkonen. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 24 (S-Factor 4.5 GOP): Elton Gallegly has served this district situated in much of Ventura County (Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley and the Ronald Reagan presidential library) and inland Santa Barbara County (including Lompoc) since 1987. In 2006, Gallegly stated he would retire, but due to California election laws, he remained on the ballot and therefore stated he would run for his final term. Now, Gallegly is running for another term. Despite all of this confusion, Gallegly is safe for another term against nurse Marta Jorgensen. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 25 (S-Factor 6.8 GOP): With Democrats now in power, and prospects of a GOP comeback appearing remote at best this year, former House Education Committee Chair (albeit for about a year) Buck McKeon could possibly retire in 2010. For now, McKeon is a safe bet against law office manager Jackie Conaway in this district that stretches from northern Los Angeles County out to inland areas situated along the Nevada border. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 26 (S-Factor 3.8 GOP): Since 1980, David Dreier has been the standard bearer for this district situated along the foothills of the San Gabriel Valley around such Southland suburbs as Rancho Cucamonga, Glendora and Arcadia. Dreier is facing a competitive challenge from magazine distributor Russ Warner who has raised a respectable amount of individual donations ($522K) but still comes up short of Dreier, who has $569K in individual donations. Aiding Dreier: a Dem internal from July showed Warner trailing by 12 percent. Aiding Warner: a fairly bad GOP climate and attention from the D-Trip as a "race to watch". Bottom line: Dreier should be favored to win another term, but don't count Warner out just yet. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 27 (S-Factor 12.3 DEM): Brad Sherman represents a San Fernando Valley-based district that includes the Northridge area and often favors the Democrats. Businessman Navraj Singh is the GOP nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 28 (S-Factor 24.0 DEM): Longtime Democrat Howard Berman, now chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee in the wake of the death of Tom Lantos, is running unopposed in this San Fernando/North Hollywood-based district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 29 (S-Factor 12.3 DEM): Adam Schiff has represented a relatively Democratic district based in areas north of Los Angeles (including Pasadena, Glendale and Burbank) since 2000 when he defeated Republican incumbent Jim Rogan. Rogan served as one of the House Managers in the impeachment of President Clinton, an issue that was not very popular in a district situated in the vicinity of Hollywood. This year, Schiff is heavily favored for another term against financial advisor Charles Hahn. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 30 (S-Factor 19.5 DEM): Henry Waxman holds a powerful position on Capitol Hill: he is the Chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Waxman is unopposed for reelection, not surprising as his district is a favorably liberal one situated in western areas of Los Angeles County including Beverly Hills, Malibu and Santa Monica. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 31 (S-Factor 29.0 DEM): Xavier Becerra is running unopposed in his Hollywood-based district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 32 (S-Factor 16.3 DEM): Hilda Solis is unopposed for reelection in this east Los Angeles County seat which includes such suburbs as El Monte, West Covina and Azusa and is largely Hispanic. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 33 (S-Factor 35.0 DEM): Diane Watson represents such western areas of Los Angeles as Culver City and Baldwin Hills, and should have no trouble defeating college student David Crowley. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 34 (S-Factor 22.3 DEM): Lucille Roybal-Allard, daughter of late former Congressman Ed Roybal, will be favored over economist Christopher Balding for another term in this district that stretches from Downtown L.A. to such suburbs as Huntington Park, Downey and Bellflower. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 35 (S-Factor 31.8 DEM): Maxine Waters is heavily favored for another term over non-profit executive Ted Hayes in a district stretching from south central Los Angeles to nearby cities Hawthorne, Inglewood and Gardena. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 36 (S-Factor 10.8 DEM): Jane Harman was first elected to this South Bay (Redondo Beach, Torrance, Venice) district in 1992 and left it in 1998 for an ill-fated gubernatorial bid. The seat went to Republican Steven Kuykendall, but Harman reclaimed it in 2000 and has held it ever since. In this relatively moderate district, she is heavily favored against retired aerospace physicist Brian Gibson. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 37 (S-Factor 26.5 DEM): Following the death of Juanita Millender-McDonald, then the Chairwoman of the House Administration Committee, Laura Richardson stepped in to claim this Long Beach-centric district. No Republican has filed to challenge Richardson, not surprising given that the district is strongly favorable to Democrats. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 38 (S-Factor 19.3 DEM): No Republican has filed to challenge Grace Napolitano in this largely Hispanic district based in the eastern portion of the county (including Montebello, Norwalk, Pomona and La Puente). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 39 (S-Factor 12.8 DEM): Whittier, Lynwood and Lakewood are among the eastern Los Angeles suburbs that comprise this district, which has been held by Linda Sanchez, sister of fellow California Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, since 2002. Businesswoman Diane Lenning is the Republican nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 40 (S-Factor 7.5 GOP): Ed Royce has represented this Orange County-based seat situated largely in Fullerton, Orange and areas surrounding Anaheim since 1992, and is favored to win another term over mental health consultant Christina Avalos. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 41 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): This is a safely GOP district based in eastern San Bernardino County including Hesperia and Redlands and stretching all the way to the Nevada and Arizona borders, but Jerry Lewis, the former House Appropriations Committee Chairman, has been attacked by a watchdog group over his ties to a lobbying firm run by former Congressman Bill Lowery. However, Lewis is expected to win another term (he won in 2006 with two-thirds of the vote) over Democrat and attorney Tim Prince. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 42 (S-Factor 9.8 GOP): Gary Miller is expected to win another term in this district which includes such Orange County suburbs as Yorba Linda, Mission Viejo and Brea as well as parts of extreme southeastern Los Angeles County such as Diamond Bar and Chino in San Bernardino County. Montebello School Board Member Ed Chau is the Democrat in waiting. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 43 (S-Factor 12.8 DEM): Many areas of southwestern San Bernardino, including San Bernardino, Ontario and Rialto, are situated in this district which has been held by Joe Baca since taking over for deceased 18-term Congressman George Brown, Jr. in 1999. Baca will be safe for another term against John Roberts, a city councilman and retired fire fighter from Fontana. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 44 (S-Factor 5.3 GOP): Ken Calvert has served in Congress since first being elected in 1992. The Democrats' nominee is Corona-Norco School Board President Bill Hedrick for this district that stretches from Riverside and Corona in Riverside County to San Clemente in the OC. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 45 (S-Factor 2.8 GOP): Mary Bono Mack assumed this seat in 1998 following the tragic death of entertainer-turned-Congressman Sonny Bono. While this Palm Springs-based district appears competitive on paper, former State Assemblywoman Julie Bornstein has only now gotten the notice of the D-Trip -- as a "race to watch", meaning that while Bono Mack is favored to win, Bornstein still has a shot at an upset. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 46 (S-Factor 5.3 GOP): Dana Rohrabacher, a former Reagan staffer whose early days were spent on such liberal causes as protesting against the Vietnam War, succeeded Dan Lungren (now representing a Sacramento-area district; he's on here) in 1989 and has had relatively no trouble holding this seat. Huntington Beach mayor Debbie Cook is a high-profile candidate, and fundraising numbers have been decent ($136K individual and $21K PAC compared to Rohrabacher's $271K individual and $47K PAC). However, Cook faces an uphill battle of sorts in this conservative-leaning district that stretches from Rancho Palos Verdes and Long Beach in L.A. County to Huntington Beach and Costa Mesa in the OC. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 47 (S-Factor 5.0 DEM): This is the bluest district in the OC, based in the cities of Anaheim, Santa Ana and Garden Grove. The incumbent, Loretta Sanchez, herself a former Republican, came to Congress by defeating colorful Congressman and one-time presidential candidate Bob Dornan in 1996, albeit by a very close margin of less than 1,000 votes. Sanchez is safe for another term against Santa Ana School Board Member Rosie Avila. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 48 (S-Factor 7.5 GOP): This was the home base of current Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Chris Cox, situated in such areas as Irvine, Laguna Beach, Tustin and Newport Beach. Now represented by John Campbell, it is still a Republican district and safe for Campbell against attorney Steve Young (NOT the former quarterback) who has been Campbell's general election rival both in the special to succeed Cox and the general in 2006. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 49 (S-Factor 9.8 GOP): Darrell Issa should be expected to win another term in this largely Republican district situated around the Camp Pendleton military installation, which straddles along the Los Angeles and San Diego television markets (including Temecula, Oceanside and Vista) and would make difficult advertising territory for non-incumbents such as retired businessman Robert Hamilton. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 50 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): Allegations of bribery in regards to the obtaining of defense contracts befell Duke Cunningham, a former Vietnam War ace who is now serving time in prison, and brought former Congressman Brian Bilbray back to Washington from this district based in areas north of San Diego including Escondido, Carlsbad and Solana Beach. Attorney Nick Leibham has raised a considerable amount of cash (though Bilbray still has more cash on hand with $528K to Leibham's $267K) and the D-Trip has given Leibham's campaign some attention. But will it be enough? Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 51 (S-Factor 7.8 DEM): Bob Filner should be safe for another term against businessman David Lee Joy in a district that straddles along the California-Mexico border and includes parts of southern San Diego and Chula Vista as well as El Centro, located in the eastern part of the district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 52 (S-Factor 8.8 GOP): Duncan Hunter made a second-tier run for president this year, ending his bid after the Nevada primary. The former House Armed Services Committee chairman is calling it a career after a remarkable 14-term run, having come to Congress along the coattails of fellow Californian Ronald Reagan in 1980. This has become a race pitting two Bush (41 and 43) Iraq wars against one another, with Hunter's son Duncan D. Hunter, an Iraq War vet and businessman, as the GOP nominee. The Democrats are putting up a dark horse bid with former naval officer and Gulf War vet Mike Lumpkin, but the Republican nature of this district which covers such San Diego suburbs as El Cajon, Poway and the Scripps Ranch area of San Diego will make it a difficult fight. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 53 (S-Factor 12.3 DEM): San Diego's downtown areas, along with some of its surrounding areas including Lemon Grove and Imperial Beach are situated in this fairly liberal district that has been represented by Susan Davis since she knocked off Brian Bilbray (see CA-50) in 2000. Teacher and USMC vet Michael Crimmins is the elephant-in-waiting. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Indiana.