The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXIX: Indiana

Last time, we focused on California, the largest of the 50 states with 53 congressional districts but few races of interest. Now, the Bullet Train to November roars east to the Midwest -- to a traditional red state situated in a sea of blue and swing states...

INDIANA

Living up to its motto, The Crossroads of America, Indiana is filled with many villages and industrial towns intertwined within a vast landscape of urban landscapes and rural spaces, but not too vast -- the state is the smallest in the contiguous United States west of the Appalachian Mountains. Home to Native American tribes as far back as 8000 B.C., Indiana was claimed by French settlers in the 1670s and later by Great Britain a century later. The United States claimed the territory at the end of the American Revolution and in 1816, Indiana was annexed as the 19th state admitted to the Union.

Today, Indiana boasts a significant manufacturing base with the nation's largest steel producer situated in northwest Indiana, along with pharmaceuticals (Eli Lilly is based in Indianapolis), transportation, machinery and electrical equipment. Situated in the Corn Belt, Indiana is a major agricultural producer of corn (as well as ethanol and biodiesel), soybeans, dairy and specialties such as melons and mint. All of this is attributed to a low-tax, business-friendly economy. In sports, Indiana is known for a rich basketball heritage and is known as the birthplace of high school basketball, which was best exemplified in the 1954 state championship won by tiny Milan High School which beat the much larger Muncie Central High School and was the basis for the 1986 film Hoosiers. In auto racing, the world's largest one-day sporting event, the legendary Indianapolis 500, takes place at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, known popularly as The Brickyard. Some of the more well-known Hoosiers include 9/11 Commission vice chairman Lee Hamilton, Basketball Hall of Famers Larry Bird and John Wooden, musician John Mellencamp, political commentator Tavis Smiley, late night talk show host David Letterman, novelist Kurt Vonnegut, and musician and "King of Pop" Michael Jackson, as well as several astronauts, including seven-time spaceflight record holder Jerry Ross and Frank Borman, one of the first (out of 24) men to fly around the Moon.

Compared to other midwestern states, Indiana is a reliably Republican and conservative state; 1912, 1932, 1936 and 1964 have been the only times since 1900 where the Democrat nominee for President carried the Hoosier State. The GOP fares best in the suburbs of major cities such as Indianapolis as well as eastern Indiana and Fort Wayne while Democrats perform best in the city of Indianapolis and in northwestern and southern Indiana (the latter area of which tends to elect conservative Democrats). The state's congressional delegation is usually reflective of the national political mood, and is currently a 5-4 majority in the Democrats' favor. Democrat prospects are limited this year, as the Donkey Brigade has already picked up three seats in 2006, leaving only a lone dark horse opportunity in the House, a competitive gubernatorial race, and stronger-than-average polling numbers for Barack Obama as their only key bellwethers in 2008. For the GOP, at least one of the three seats it lost in the last cycle is in their crosshairs while at the same time defending Governor Mitch Daniels.

District 1 (S-Factor 8.0 DEM): This is one of the more liberal districts in an otherwise conservative-leaning state, taking in areas close to Chicago including the gritty industrial town of Gary and such surrounding cities as Hammond and Merrillville. Longtime incumbent Peter Visclosky is heavily favored for another term against carpenter Mark Leyva. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): Joe Donnelly was one of the first Democrats nationally, and second in Indiana, to pick up a Republican congressional seat in 2006, knocking off Chris Chocola in this South Bend-based district. Businessman Luke Puckett is the Republican nominee, but has not generated much enthusiasm. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 16.0 GOP): Democrats' three-seat pickup in the Hoosier State almost became a four-seat grab bag when Mark Souder faced a surprisingly close race against Fort Wayne City Councilman Tom Hayhurst last time, winning with only 54% of the vote in a district concentrated around Fort Wayne and northeast Indiana that gave 68% of the vote to President Bush. Hayhurst is not running this year, but 27-year old attorney Mike Montagano is and has raised respectable amounts as well, with $309K in individual donations to Souder's $287K. Montagano also has $352K cash on hand compared to Souder's $323K. But time will tell if Montagano can repeat the surprise of 2006. The D-Trip views this race as "emerging", but will it be enough to pull off a shocker? Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 17.0 GOP): House Veterans' Affairs Committee Ranking Member Steve Buyer represents a strongly Republican western Indiana seat based in Lafayette, Bedford and suburbs south and west of Indianapolis (but not Terre Haute), and should be a sure bet for re-election. Attorney Nels Ackerson has had decent fundraising numbers (Ackerson leads Buyer in individual donations $347K to $119K), but the D-Trip isn't even watching and Buyer's cash on hand totals of $629K far outpace Ackerson's $178K. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 19.0 GOP): This is one of the nation's most Republican districts, based in Indianapolis' heavily Republican and affluent northern and eastern suburbs (Carmel, Shelbyville) as well as areas southwest of Fort Wayne such as Huntington. But Dan Burton himself almost didn't make it past this year's GOP primary, winning by only seven points against former Marion County Coroner John McGoff, a margin that is not surprising given Burton's AWOL status on 11 percent of votes in 2006 and his casting the only nay vote on a rule banning members of Congress from accepting gifts from lobbyists. Still, Burton is definitely not in any trouble against businesswoman and former congressional aide Mary Etta Ruley, but his weak primary showing could suggest retirement in 2010. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 10.5 GOP): Mike Pence has emerged as one of the more well-known conservatives in all of Congress, having previously chaired the Republican Study Committee (now headed by Texas' Jeb Hensarling). His eastern Indiana district, based in the Richmond and Muncie areas, should deliver the former attorney and talk radio host another term over Methodist minister Barry Welsh. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 8.8 DEM): Following the death of Julia Carson last December, Indianapolis City-County Councillor André Carson stepped in to succeed his grandmother, and becoming only the second congressional Muslim in the process (as well as the youngest Democrat in Congress). He defeated his young Republican opponent, State Representative Jon Elrod, with 54 percent of the vote in this Indianapolis-centric district. However, Elrod ended his 2008 bid for the seat. While this is not a terribly safe district for Democrats, Carson can now be expected to win a full term against the new GOP opponent, social worker Gabrielle Campo. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): This was the first district to flip Democrat in 2006, with Brad Ellsworth pulling off a surprisingly large 61-39 victory over John Hostettler, who was known for his select base of campaign donors and consistent close races. The former Sheriff of Vanderburgh County (which includes Evansville), Ellsworth is now favored for another term against former congressional aide Greg Goode, but is not necessarily safe given the district's history of competitiveness. Remember, this is the "Bloody Eighth" which in addition to Evansville also includes Terre Haute and Vincennes and where close races and "throwing out the bums" is a common occurrence. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 6.8 GOP): This is the marquee congressional race in Indiana, and the fourth race pitting former State Representative Baron Hill against trucking executive Mike Sodrel in this southeastern Indiana seat stretching from the Indiana University campus in Bloomington to the Indiana suburbs of Louisville (New Albany, Jeffersonville), Kentucky. In 2002, Hill won it. In 2004, Sodrel did. In 2006, Hill took it back as one of the first 15 before Democrats were projected to take over the House. And now, despite Hill having the edge, Sodrel's electoral strength keeps the race interesting. And I am getting dizzy. Prediction: Leans DEM.

Next stop: Vermont.