The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XXVI: New Jersey

With the conventions now only a memory, the candidates will now be spending the next two months promoting their platforms. As the Bullet Train to November exits the state of Idaho, one of the strongest states for George W. Bush in 2004, it now heads to a much more bluer state that does not have its own television markets, but serves two of America's ten largest...

NEW JERSEY

The Garden State's roots can be traced back to the Dutch colony of New Netherland. Eventually, the colony was controlled by England as a province known under its current name, granted by King Charles II to Sir George Carteret and Lord Berkeley of Stratton. The third state to ratify the United States Constitution, New Jersey is known as "The Crossroads of the Revolution" as many important Revolutionary War battles took place here.

Today, New Jersey is practically one giant bedroom community, situated at the heart of a sprawling megalopolis (collaboration of metropolitan areas) between Boston and Washington, D.C., and consists mostly of suburbs of New York and Philadelphia. 19.2 percent of New Jerseyans are foreign-born, as it boasts one of the most demographically diverse populations of any state with the second-largest percentage of Jews and Muslims, plus significant populations of Asians, Italian Americans, and Indian Americans, and nine of the wealthiest 100 counties in America are situated here in the Garden State. The state's economy revolves around science and technology, as many pharmaceutical firms (Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Wyeth among others), and telecom companies (such as Verizon and Avaya) are based here. Greenhouse gas emissions are low, attributed to its electricity market which is dominated by nuclear power. Chemicals, food processing and shipping also play a pivotal role in the economy of New Jersey.

New Jersey has laid claim to its eclectic share of notables: musicians Frank Sinatra, Jon Bon Jovi and Bruce Springsteen, actresses Tara Reid and Kirsten Dunst, Steely Dan front man Donald Fagen, Live with Regis and Kelly co-host Kelly Ripa, actors John Travolta, Bruce Willis and Jack Nicholson, 9/11 Commission chairman Tom Kean (himself a former Governor here), comedian and MDA Telethon star Jerry Lewis, domestic living entrepreneur Martha Stewart, U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, singer Whitney Houston, Daily Show host Jon Stewart, influential inventor Thomas Edison, and none other than Tony Soprano himself, James Gandolfini.

Politically, it tends to vote for Democrats, though the state was in past decades a competitive one that swung Republican at times. Part of the reason for this shift lies in the social attitudes of the state's population: one poll indicated two-thirds of New Jersey residents are pro-choice, and it became the third U.S. state to offer same-sex civil unions in 2007. New Jersey's gun laws include bans on not only assault weapons, but also slingshots and BB guns. Furthermore, all gun offenses are graded as felonies or higher and out-of-state gun licenses are not welcome.

New Jersey's Governor, Jon Corzine, holds one of the nation's most powerful governorships as his position is the only statewide position in New Jersey (outside of federal positions) decided by voters at the ballot box. That is expected to change next year with the addition of a Lieutenant Governor position. This year, the GOP is waging a dark horse U.S. Senate bid against the fairly unpopular Frank Lautenberg, while Democrats will look to pad its 7-6 majority in the state's congressional delegation.

District 1 (S-Factor 14.8 DEM): The fate of this seat has become bizarre, at least on one side of the ballot. First, incumbent Rob Andrews decided to run for the U.S. Senate against Lautenberg and his wife, Camille jumps in to run for his Camden-centric district as a "placeholder" candidate. Now Rob Andrews is running for his current seat again and will be heavily favored for another term over minister Dale Glading. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 4.3 DEM): Frank LoBiondo has won with no less than 60 percent in his district, which covers the southern end of New Jersey (including Atlantic City and Vineland). On paper, it appears as a blue district, but LoBiondo will be strongly favored for another term against Cape May Councilman David Kurkowski. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 3.3 DEM): For 24 years, moderate Republican Jim Saxton has been the standard bearer for this competitive district which stretches across South Jersey from Cherry Hill in Camden County and through Burlington County to Toms River in Ocean County. His retirement due to prostate cancer puts this seat in play, with State Senator John Adler (who was running against Saxton before his retirement) aiming to pick up the seat for the Democrats. The Republicans, meanwhile have nominated Medford Township Mayor and Lockheed Martin executive Chris Myers. Adler has raised considerably more funds ($1.72 million in individual, PAC and personal funds to Myers' $622K), but the Camden County portion of this district is the only area that coincides with Adler's own legislative district, and while Hillary Clinton won this district in the 2008 primaries, Adler was an early supporter of Barack Obama, which could turn off some Clinton supporters. Will the ghost of primary season harm Adler? Will Myers catch up to Adler's coffers? Time (in this case, two months) will tell. Prediction: Tossup.

District 4 (S-Factor 0.8 GOP): Competitive on paper, this distrct cuts across the capital city of Trenton, and parts of Burlington, Camden and Ocean counties. But Chris Smith is not in any real danger, as he generally has been re-elected to this district without difficulty. College Professor Josh Zeitz will attempt to make this a race, but the winds see no signs of shifting. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): In a state known as a haven for moderate Republicans, Scott Garrett holds an unusual position as a conservative Republican, consistently earning high marks from the American Conservative Union. Rabbi Dennis Shulman is the Democrat in this race and is waging a dark horse campaign for this district, which covers the northern end of New Jersey (north Bergen and Passaic counties plus all of Sussex and Warren counties). Making the race competitive: Garrett has never broken 60 percent, but still leads in overall fundraising with $649K cash-on-hand to Shulman's $258K. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 11.8 DEM): This odd-shaped (and blue) district stretches from coastal Monmouth County (Asbury Park, Long Branch) all the way to New Brunswick and Plainfield. The district's congressman, Frank Pallone has served in Congress since 1988, and will be favored for another term over former judge Robert McLeod. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 7 (S-Factor 0.8 GOP): Mike Ferguson, at the ripe old age of 38, has decided to spend more time with his family in this suburban district that cuts across Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex and Union counties. In 2006, Ferguson barely fended off State Assemblywoman Linda Stender by over 3,000 votes. Stender is the Democrat nominee once again, this time facing off against former State Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance, the Republican nominee. Stender leads in fundraising ($1.2 million COH to Lance's $80K as of June) but a GOP internal from July suggests a seven-point lead for Lance (42 to 35 percent). Which side has the real edge? Prediction: Tossup.

District 8 (S-Factor 12.0 DEM): Bill Pascrell first came to Congress in 1996 after knocking off freshman Republican Bill Martini. Since then, he has had an easy time in this south Passaic/north and west Essex district. Businessman Roland Straten will try. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 13.3 DEM): Steve Rothman first came to Congress in 1996 from this mostly south Bergen County district to replace Robert Torricelli, who jumped to the U.S. Senate (albeit for one term, Lautenberg holds this seat now). The GOP will try to make a race of it with 2006 nominee and Iraq War vet Vince Micco. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 10 (S-Factor 34.3 DEM): Longtime incumbent Don Payne will not be facing a Republican in this heavily African-American Newark-based district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 11 (S-Factor 5.0 GOP): Rodney Frelinghuysen comes from a New Jersey political family that has represented the state's congressional delegation in the past. The Democrats have nominated their 2006 nominee, Tom Wyka, once again. But it will be hard to defeat Frelinghuysen in a district that consists of the counties of Morris and western Essex and generally elects moderate Republicans. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 12 (S-Factor 7.8 DEM): Scientific research and education play a significant role in this district -- which is Democratic (but not by a significant amount) and cuts across the counties of Hunterdon, Mercer, Somerset, Middlesex and Monmouth. Rush Holt, the only Quaker in Congress, first came to Congress in 1998 by defeating conservative incumbent Mike Pappas, whose headline-grabbing version of "Twinkle Twinkle Little Star" (designed to relate to Kenneth Starr, a major figure in the sex scandal surrounding Bill Clinton) turned off voters. This year, Holt will not be facing a competitive challenge; he is heavily favored to defeat Holmdel Township Committeeman Alan Bateman. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 13 (S-Factor 22.8 DEM): Albio Sires came to Congress in the final weeks of the 109th Congress to replace newly minted U.S. Senator Bob Menendez in this heavily Democrat, largely Hispanic (47.6% to be specific) district, which cuts across Jersey City, Bayonne and the coastlines of Hudson, Union and Middlesex counties (as well as parts of Bergen and Essex counties), traveling all the way to Perth Amboy. Attorney Joseph Turula is the elephant-in-waiting. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Oregon.