Nifty Fifty Updates

After the RNC concludes tonight, the other Bonus Page will be published, with the second half kicking off Monday. But for now, here are two updates in places that have already gone through scrutiny.

Colorado 4: A recent poll now shows incumbent Marilyn Musgrave trailing Democrat candidate Betsy Markey by a seven-point margin. The poll's source is SurveyUSA, which is one of the big guns in political water testing. Given the incumbent's historic appeal to the Vocal Fringe (in her case, the far right propaganda machine), this is not surprising. In 2006, Musgrave generally lead in polls (including ones from SUSA; her worst margins usually came from Dem internals). With Colorado appearing as the Dems' big beacon in 2008, this will be a fight worth watching. The poll, by the way also showed Musgrave had mostly negative ratings (51%), Markey gets more from McCain supporters than Musgrave does from Obama supporters, and alternative sources (as opposed to strictly offshore drilling) and the economy top the charts for this moderately conservative district situated in Eastern Colorado and the Fort Collins area. Sounds like a great candidate for green-collar jobs. New Prediction: Tossup.

Louisiana 7: More relevant fundraising numbers are in, and the D-Trip now has last-minute recruit Don Cravins on its select list of "Red to Blue" candidates. Incumbent Charles Boustany leads in fundraising ($1.11 million to $255K), but Dems, after two hearty servings of Southern special elections (in LA-6 and MS-1), will be back for seconds come November. New Prediction: Favor GOP.

Virginia 11: With Gerry Connolly now having practically caught up to Keith Fimian in the fundraising department months ago, this race is definitely now his to lose, but Fimian is definitely not out of the woods yet. New Prediction: Leans DEM.