Sunday, January 20, 2008

The Lowdown on the Presidential Nomination

We have already gone through 10% of the primary phase (60% of it coming from the GOP)...and still no leader on the leaderboard. That of course will change as we approach Florida, which in my opinion represents the true depiction of America (unlike Iowa, which is not very diverse).

First, the Democrats, whose race is now down to Hillary and Barack...at least in terms of the likelihood factor. John Edwards should drop out, but hasn't yet. This is what has happened:

Iowa: Obama 1st, Edwards 2nd, Clinton 3rd, Richardson 4th, Biden 5th, Dodd 6th
New Hampshire: Clinton 1st, Obama 2nd, Edwards 3rd, Richardson 4th
Michigan: Clinton 1st, Uncommitted 2nd (Obama and Edwards skipped it when the Dems stripped Michigan of its delegates)
Nevada: Clinton 1st, Obama 2nd, Edwards a very, very distant 3rd

Now my predictions:
South Carolina: Obama 1st, Clinton 2nd, Edwards 3rd (drops out)
Florida: Clinton 1st, Obama 2nd (no delegates there either)

Let's face it, the Democrat race is as I said earlier, now down to Hillary and Barack. She'll take the momentum with her to Denver.

Now for the Grand Old Party, and what a Grand Old Party it has been!...

Iowa: Huckabee 1st, Romney 2nd, Thompson 3rd, McCain 4th, Paul 5th, Giuliani 6th, Hunter 7th, Tancredo 8th (dropped out earlier)
Wyoming: Romney won the county conventions
New Hampshire: McCain 1st, Romney 2nd, Huckabee 3rd, Giuliani 4th, Paul 5th, Thompson 6th, Hunter 7th
Michigan: Romney 1st, McCain 2nd, Huckabee 3rd, Paul 4th, Thompson 5th, Giuliani 6th, Hunter 7th
Nevada: Romney 1st, Paul 2nd, McCain 3rd, Huckabee 4th, Thompson 5th, Giuliani 6th, Hunter 7th (dropped out afterwards)
South Carolina: McCain 1st, Huckabee 2nd, Thompson 3rd, Romney 4th, Paul 5th, Giuliani 6th, Hunter 7th (didn't he drop out earlier?!?)

And then there were six: Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Paul, Romney and Thompson, though I may have to cut out the latter based on what happens in the coming days...and Florida is anyone's guess.

Come January 29th, and we'll have a better sense of what is going on.

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