The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XI: South Carolina

As ten states have now passed, we can now breathe some more. But there is no quitting the bullet train to November, and our next state takes us to one that defines Southern Hospitality...

SOUTH CAROLINA

The Palmetto State may have been the eighth state to join the Union, but it was the first to secede to the Confederacy (and the beginning of the Civil War courtesy of Fort Sumter). It was originally part of the colony known as The Carolinas until a 1712 split that created this state and North Carolina. The state is home to a significant African-American population and is largely Southern Baptist, and before 1830, South Carolina also had North America's largest Jewish population. For sports fans, there is much to offer, albeit outside of the professional realm. The Clemson Tigers and South Carolina Gamecocks draw very large number of spectators to their football games, and smaller schools (think The Citadel, Winthrop and the College of Charleston) have competitive programs as well. South Carolina is home to a multitude of golf courses, many for the leisure set, but PGA and LPGA events have been held here historically. Water activities, from surfing to shrimping, are also commonplace. The state gave us Smokin' Joe Frazier, Althea Gibson, Jesse Jackson, James Brown, and Stephen Colbert. Oddly enough, South Carolina elects its Adjutant general, tapes all its DUI videotapes, and operates its own school buses.

South Carolina, as goes with the rest of the South, was a pillar in the Democrats' Solid South until the 1960s following the passage of the Civil Rights Act. Jimmy Carter was the last president to win the state, in 1976. As the national Democrats became more liberal, the state began to slowly shift to the Republicans, yet it did not come overnight, as the state was filled with (and continues to be filled with) conservative Democrats in some areas. U.S. Senator and centenarian Strom Thurmond was one such example, switching from Democrat to Republican in 1964. Today, the Republicans dominate politics in the state, with a Republican Governor, two Republican Senators, a Republican majority in the House, and Republican control of the South Carolina General Assembly. However, the state's large African-American population could put the state, and a couple of congressional seats in play with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket.

District 1 (S-Factor 9.5 GOP): Four-term incumbent Henry Brown represents this coastal stretch of the state from Charleston up to Myrtle Beach. It has been in the GOP column since 1980, but wealthy philanthropist Linda Ketner is looking to change that. Already, Ketner has amassed individual donations on par with Brown and has a rather significant amount of cash on hand ($382K). Brown, though has even more cash stockpiled (nearly $1.3 million). A fifth of the district's population is African-American, but the significant Republican edge should help Brown. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 6.3 GOP): Joe Wilson has for the most part had no trouble winning his largely Republican district stretching from Columbia and its suburbs to Hilton Head Island. His Democrat opponent this time will be Iraq War Veteran Rob Miller, who has raised a respectable amount ($296K to Wilson's $408K) but still faces uphill odds. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 13.5 GOP): A largely rural and socially conservative district, the home district of Clemson University has been in Republican hands since the Republican Revolution of 1994 (when eventual U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham took the seat). Incumbent Gresham Barrett should be safe from Democrat challenger and USAF vet Jane Dyer. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 14.0 GOP): Bob Inglis represents the most Republican district in South Carolina, home to a growing base of business conservatives that comprises of research firms and automotive manufacturers and social conservatives from the ultra-conservative Bob Jones University. The five-term Republican from Travelers Rest (a rather ironic name for a congressman's place of residence), who served three terms from 1993 to 1999 and came back in 2005 when Jim DeMint left to run for the U.S. Senate, will be facing retired college administrator and Vietnam vet Paul Corden, who had to battle through a Democrat primary -- and runoff which he won last night -- to earn the nomination. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 5.3 GOP): Granted, this is a conservative rural district with suburbs on both ends (Charlotte, N.C. in the north, Columbia in the south) and a large black population (32 percent). It has never elected a Republican since Reconstruction, and House Budget Committee Chair John Spratt should be favored over college professor Albert Spencer in what is mostly a Republican-leaning district largely because of suburban Charlotte's York County. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 11.8 DEM): House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn represents the bluest district in the state, a majority-black one stretching from Columbia to North Charleston and Florence. Businesswoman Nancy Harrelson is the GOP nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Maine.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part X: Minnesota

Previously, I went through Colorado, a state that Democrats claim is their golden ticket come November given their recent successes in that state and their upcoming convention being held in that state's capital city of Denver. Now the focus shifts to the state where Republicans will be gathering this year to put a new spin on the Elephants Club...

MINNESOTA

Minnesota's three nicknames can be derived from three sports teams, one of which is now in Texas (North Star State = the NHL's Dallas Stars), another which is now down 2-3 in this year's NBA Finals (Land of 10,000 Lakes = the Los Angeles Lakers), and a third of which graces the state's BCS university (The Gopher State = the Golden Gophers of the University of Minnesota). While it is a very large state, three-fifths of it are situated in the Minneapolis-St. Paul region, known collectively as the "Twin Cities". Minnesota is one of the most educated states in America, which is not surprising given that a great amount of educational software provided to us in elementary school was by the Minnesota Educational Computing Corporation, or MECC (think The Oregon Trail), which eventually evolved into The Learning Company (who also provided us with a wealth of educational computer programs).

Minnesota is also a leader in alternative energy, with over 300 service stations offering E85 fuel, and a wind power presence in the state's southwestern portions. With much thanks to the Twin Cities, Minnesota also houses a vibrant arts scene, with strong attendance figures at performing arts venues throughout the region, and the state has even produced its own stars including Bob Dylan, Prince, Soul Asylum, comedian Craig Kilborn, the Coen Brothers, Judy Garland, and Snoopy (Peanuts creator Charles Schulz hails from Minnesota). The Minnesota State Fair is a major attraction that draws hundreds of thousands of guests every year, and winter sports from hockey to curling to ice fishing are common pastimes. Minnesota is home to 3M, retailers Target and Best Buy, and the world-renowned Mayo Clinic.

Politically, progressive policies, along with intensive community involvement, have been the hallmark of the state. Minnesotans are heavily involved in regular exercise, have low rates of everything bad (third lowest infant mortality rate for instance) and high rates of everything good (91% health insurance rate). Its political stylings are very quirky. The Democrats are not Democrats, but instead DFLers (short for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party). The Independence Party, a very strong third party here, is the state's version of Ross Perot's Reform Party, which helped elect professional wrestler Jesse Ventura Governor in 1998. The Republicans are led statewide by Governor Tim Pawlenty, and this year the GOP will be holding its national convention in St. Paul's Xcel Energy Center. However, Minnesota has not shaken off its progressive batter, and the DFL has fielded liberal humorist Al Franken to take on Republican U.S. Senator Norm Coleman, all making for a very interesting election cycle where the Donkey Brigade also aims to reduce the GOP's congressional delegation to a quarter.

NOTE: The primary is on September 9, 2008. Predictions could change based on various circumstances.

District 1 (S-Factor 0.5 GOP): When Gil Gutknecht ran in 1994, he promised voters in this southern Minnesota district (Rochester, Mankato, and the Mayo Clinic) he would serve no more than six terms. Gutknecht chose to run for a seventh, and his ploy backfired in his 2006 defeat to Tim Walz, a teacher, coach and retired member of the National Guard from Mankato. Since then, well over a million dollars been raised by Walz, the more moderate of the 2007 newcomers from Minnesota. Republicans (and the NRCC) have coalesced around Mayo Clinic physician Brian Davis, but State Senator Dick Day will march on to the primary. Wonder if this will make things a little dicey for the GOP, along with the fact that each of the two elephants-in-waiting have cash-on-hand figures under $100K. Prediction: Favor DFL.

District 2 (S-Factor 2.3 GOP): Of the three suburban Twin Cities districts, this covers the south (Apple Valley, Eagan, Burnsville, Lakeville and the counties of Carver, Dakota and Scott). John Kline first came into existence when he spooked redistricted DFLer Bill Luther in 2002. FBI whistleblower Coleen Rowley held Kline to 56% in 2006, but she will not be back this time. Instead, Kline will face former Watertown Mayor Steve Sarvi. Sarvi brags of an internal poll that shows this district as a pickup opportunity, but Kline's funding train is so far outpacing Sarvi for the moment. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 0.3 GOP): Moderate Republican Jim Ramstad represents the most affluent of the three suburban Twin Cities districts (Edina, Minnetonka, Bloomington, Eden Prairie, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth, Coon Rapids), centered in areas west of Minneapolis that are fiscally conservative, socially moderate. Usually, the Republicans dominate life in this district, but an upsurge of moderate DFLers courtesy of the 2006 legislative elections have given the DFL hope, especially now that Ramstad won't be seeking office after nine terms. But the GOP has someone for the seat: former House Republican Leader Erik Paulsen, to fall in the footsteps of Ramstad and Bill Frenzel, whom the incumbent succeeded. The DFL battle, however, was about as messy as the national presidential picture. It all came down to State Senator Terri Bonoff, who built her campaign around the suburban-oriented moderate tack taken by Hillary Clinton, and Iraq War Veteran Ashwin Madia, whose campaign was centered on the change path taken by Barack Obama. In the end, Madia, himself a former Republican (even supporting John McCain in 2000) upended the favored Bonoff. Paulsen has the inside track, but Madia could ride along Obama's coattails. The question is: who has the pull? Prediction: Tossup.

District 4 (S-Factor 12.8 DFL): St. Paul, where Norm Coleman was once mayor, is the dominant focus of this heavily Democratic district which is represented by Betty McCollum. Accountant Ed Matthews is running on the GOP side. Prediction: Solid DFL.

District 5 (S-Factor 20.8 DFL): This is the most liberal district in all of Minnesota, taking in Minneapolis and some surrounding areas, and Keith Ellison, the most liberal of Minnesota's three newcomers from 2006, made history by becoming the first African American member of Congress from Minnesota and Congress' first-ever Muslim. While his candidacy came with some doubts at first in 2006, he is now a legitimate bet for re-election in 2008 over minister Barb Davis White. Prediction: Solid DFL.

District 6 (S-Factor 5.0 GOP): The last of the suburban Twin Cities districts centers on its northern and eastern suburbs (Blaine, Ramsey, St. Cloud, Woodbury, Andover). Michele Bachmann is the most conservative of the three Minnesotans new to Congress this cycle. While she fought off child safety advocate Patty Wetterling by an eight-point margin, some initial gaffes have somewhat stalled her credibility. Elwyn Tinklenberg, a moderate DFLer, is hoping to help shut the GOP out of the state's congressional delegation, but the money edge points to Bachmann. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 5.0 GOP): The northwestern and western shavings of Minnesota, from Bemidji to Moorhead and Fergus Falls on down to Willmar, comprise this heavily rural district. House Ag Committee Chair Collin Peterson has often won re-election to this relatively conservative district, and his GOP challenger, Glen Menze, has yet to impress (and it is most likely going to be a struggle). Prediction: Solid DFL.

District 8 (S-Factor 4.5 DFL): This is my grandfather's native district, centered in his birthplace of Duluth and all of northeastern Minnesota, including Brainerd and International Falls. The district's congressman, House Transportation and Infrastructure Chair Jim Oberstar, has served in the House for 17 terms, even knocking off former U.S. Senator Rod Grams in 2006 with nearly 64%. So far, the GOP has yet to field a challenger. Prediction: Solid DFL.

Next stop: South Carolina.

Nifty Fifty UPDATE: Virginia

Last night, congressional primaries were held in Maine, North Dakota, South Carolina and Virginia. The latter of the four was already covered, so here's what happened in Virginia last night...

In the 8th District (Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church and Reston), Mark Ellmore defeated Amit Singh for the Republican nomination in a heavily Democrat district currently held by the flamboyant Jim Moran. This is a disappointment for the Ron Paul crowd as Singh was of that variety. No changes here, still Solid DEM.

District 10 (Manassas, Herndon, McLean, Winchester, Loudoun County) will see a rematch between veteran incumbent Frank Wolf and 2006 Democrat dark horse Judy Feder, whose campaign gave Wolf a relatively closer-than-expected victory margin. Wolf easily dispatched challenger Vern McKinley while Feder defeated retired Air Force Colonel Mike Turner. Wolf should still be favored.

The four-way Democratic battle in District 11 (Annandale, Woodbridge, Burke, Fairfax, Vienna) concluded with Fairfax County Board Chair Gerry Connolly finishing on top over three other candidates including former Congresswoman Leslie Byrne. The race was a toss-up due to Republican businessman Keith Fimian's robust early numbers (which include some of his own cash), though Connolly's individual money totals are not much different from Fimian, whose self-investment of $325K artificially still puts Fimian well ahead in fundraising. Based on these numbers, along with the Democrat trend that has been ongoing in Northern Virginia, and former Governor Mark Warner (2002-2006) the early favorite against former Governor Jim Gilmore (1998-2002) for retiring Senator John Warner's open seat, this race could shift toward Leans DEM, but for now it is still a Tossup.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part IX: Kentucky

Six days have passed...and this blog seems to be getting rather lonely. But now with eight states down, we now go to a state that is part Southern, part Midwestern...

KENTUCKY

The landscape of this state can be summed up in one word...Bluegrass. Many parcels of land across the state have this type of lawn which is also immortalized in its nickname, "The Bluegrass State". But bluegrass is far from the only natural sight in this state, with an extensive cave system (the longest in the world), and the most productive coalfield in America also present here. Kentucky's economy is diverse, playing host to agricultural staples such as horses and tobacco as well as industrial outputs including transportation, chemical products and machinery. Many automobiles are manufactured here from the Chevrolet Corvette to the Ford F-150. Two sporting events, thoroughbred racing (including the Kentucky Derby) and college basketball, dominate the state's sport culture.

Historically, the Democratic Party has dominated politics here, and a majority of registered voters here are Democrats, with a 20% advantage over Republicans. George W. Bush won this state both times, as did Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. With the exception of John F. Kennedy, since the Civil War, Kentucky has always been a deciding factor as to whether or not the next President of the United States is a Democrat as it is a traditional must-win state for Democratic candidates.

Not much competition can be expected in this state, where four out of its six congressional districts field Republicans. In 2007, Governor Ernie Fletcher was defeated for re-election by Democrat Steve Beshear, and the year before Anne Northup was one of many Republicans who lost to Democrats (John Yarmuth) in the congressional bloodbath of 2006. But with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell facing the previous unexpected possibility of defeat in a toxic GOP year, everything old appears to be new again.

District 1 (S-Factor 9.8 GOP): Western Kentucky (Paducah, Henderson, Hokpinsville) dominates this district, and before Ed Whitfield came ashore in the Republican Revolution of 1994, conservative Democrats dominated at the local, state and federal levels. Democrats continue to dominate at the local levels, but the socially conservative Whitfield should have no trouble getting past former non-profit executive Heather Ryan. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 12.3 GOP): Ron Lewis is not seeking re-election, two years after facing a spirited challenge from retired Army officer and former State Representative Mike Weaver who held Lewis to 55 percent of the vote in 2006. State Senators David Boswell and Brett Guthrie will pit each other against themselves in the general election, but Guthrie is the favored candidate to represent many of the most distant portions of Louisville Metro, parts of the "Bourbon Trail", and cities such as Bowling Green and Owensboro (not to mention the birthplace of one of my party's icons, Abraham Lincoln). Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 2.5 DEM): The most Democratic district in all of Kentucky lies here in the bulk of Louisville Metro, a swing district where John Yarmuth defeated then-incumbent Anne Northup in 2006. The Republican nomination was supposed to go to attorney and military reservist Erwin Roberts, but Northup re-entered the race after Roberts pulled out of the race due to a military mandate. Now, it is a far different story as Yarmuth is the incumbent while Northup, fresh off a 2007 loss in the gubernatorial primary to the now defeated Ernie Fletcher, may have to deal with the notion of the Yarmuth camp that she is a perennial dunce. Furthermore, Yarmuth has the early cash advantage. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 11.3 GOP): Geoff Davis narrowly survived a challenge from former Congressman Ken Lucas in 2006 in this conservative district that strectches from the northeast suburbs of Louisville all the way to Ashland, encompassing the suburbs of Cincinnati along the way. The Democrat nominee, physician Michael Kelley, has generated very little enthusiasm. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 7.8 GOP): In spite of all the controversy surrounding his constituents' pork (including a family entertainment center in his name and steering national security money towards his considerably safe district), no Democrat has filed to take on veteran 14-term Republican Hal Rogers, whose jurisdiction (the second-poorest district in America) spans the southeastern portion of the state, including Somerset, Morehead and Pikeville (Independent and Army Veteran Jim Holbert is the only challenger thus far). Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 6.3 GOP): Lexington and the capital city of Frankfort dominate this district, which is held by Democrat Ben Chandler, the grandson of former Baseball Commissioner, U.S. Senator and Governor Happy Chandler. The Republican nominee is attorney and Army veteran Jon Larson, but it should have little effect on Chandler, a Blue Dog. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Minnesota.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part VIII: Colorado

Last night, in the Twin Cities region of Minnesota, Barack Obama triumphed over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential sweepstakes. With Obama having secured the needed delegate votes to become the standard bearer of the Democrats for the 2008 election cycle, he decided to kickoff his general election campaign against John McCain in, of all places, the Xcel Energy Center in Minnesota's capital city of St. Paul, home of this year's Republican National Convention, where the GOP will set its own platform (and trust me, it will not be as southern fried as in the past) for this cycle. As for the Democrats, their convention is set to take place in a state that has been anointed as their key to victory in the West…

COLORADO

Known as the Centennial State (for it was admitted to the Union in 1876), with hundreds of mountain peaks in the five-figure range (courtesy of the Rocky Mountains) and its location at the northeast quadrant of Four Corners, Colorado is a spectacular sight all to its own. But landscaping is far from the only feature of this state. Colorado is also one of the richest states in the nation, with a diverse economy dominated by beer production, mining, agriculture, finance, the Denver Mint, technology, and government services ranging from the NOAA to a Supermax prison. Owing to Colorado's strong economic growth, the state is dominated by transplants who came to Colorado in search of a new frontier in their lives.

Colorado's political scene is diverse. The heart of the state's Republican establishment lies in Colorado Springs, home to the Air Force Academy and Focus on the Family, while Democrats perform strongest in Denver and also in the college towns of Boulder and Fort Collins. The rest of the state, from the Denver suburbs to the Western Slope and a number of its ski resorts, can get swingy depending on who the candidates are, or how the parties are viewed in particular. In short, Colorado tends to take a libertarian approach to its politics, a common trait among western states.

Right now, the trend favors the Democrats, who in 2006 gained the Governor's Mansion, a congressional seat, and several state legislative seats. That, along with the 2008 Democratic National Convention being held in Denver and a competitive battle for the now-open U.S. Senate seat of Wayne Allard, makes for a difficult situation for the Republicans. The question is, will it show in the House?

NOTE: The primary is on August 12, 2008. Predictions could change based on various circumstances.

District 1 (S-Factor 18.3 DEM): This is the most heavily Democratic district in the state, encompassing the capital city of Denver and a few surrounding areas (i.e. Englewood, Glendale). Diana DeGette has been the district's standard-bearer since her first victory in 1996 when she succeeded 12-term incumbent and one-time presidential candidate Pat Schroeder. The Republican candidate is George Lilly, a salesman and Army Veteran who is among many Ron Paul Republicans running this year including many in urban areas such as this one. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 8.3 DEM): Mark Udall is leaving the House to run as his party's U.S. Senate nominee in the wake of Wayne Allard's retirement (In fact, Udall had been planning it well before Allard called it a career). This district is expected to remain Democratic due to its liberal base in Boulder, home of the University of Colorado, though it also takes in many of Colorado's natural features from ski slopes to national forests to wilderness preserves, all in the north central part of the state which can get red at times, as well as some suburbs of Denver including Westminster and Thornton. The Democrats have turned this contest into a multi-million dollar blockbuster primary with former State Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, Former State Board of Education Chair Jared Polis, and State Conservation Trust Director Will Shafroth staged in a heated battle for their party's nomination. Attorney and teacher Larry Johnson is also running on the Dem ticket. Electronical engineer Scott Starin is the lone Republican candidate thus far. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 5.3 GOP): John Salazar represents a heavily rural district on the western and southern edges of the state, including Grand Junction and Pueblo. While it leans Republican, Salazar is not expected to face an especially strong challenge. The Republican candidate is Delta County Commissioner Wayne Wolf, who has yet to soar. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): Marilyn Musgrave has never had an especially easy victory in this Fort Collins-based district, and it goes well beyond the rather Democratic-leaning nature of the home of Colorado State University (in what is otherwise a strongly GOP district). Early in her congressional career, for instance, she referred to same-sex marriage as the nation's most pressing issue. After close battles with former State Senate President Stan Matsunaka in 2002 (when the seat was open) and 2004 (when it was not) and a close call against then-State Representative Angie Paccione in 2006, Musgrave has had to focus on more important issues such as agriculture. Still, the Democrats are fielding a candidate once again, and Betsy Markey, a former aide to Senator Ken Salazar, hopes to make the fourth time a charm for the Donkey Brigade. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 15.3 GOP): This is the most Republican district in all of Colorado, home to Colorado Springs and its notable military and evangelical bases, but Doug Lamborn is not necessarily a safe bet. In the 2006 primary to succeed the now retired Joel Hefley, Lamborn came under fire for a campaign with such detriment that the ethically-minded Hefley did not endorse Lamborn. The candidate Hefley did endorse, former Chamber of Commerce official Jeff Crank, is running once again along with retired Air Force Major General Bentley Rayburn. Hal Bidlack, a retired USAF officer, is the Democrat-in-waiting. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 9.8 GOP): This white-collar suburban Denver district is one of the nation's wealthiest, and immigration hawk Tom Tancredo has had the privilege of representing this district since 1998 (even surviving the aftermath of the Columbine High School massacre that gripped this district in 1999). After a stint as a second-tier presidential candidate, Tancredo will be stepping aside. Four Republicans have lined up, mortgage banker Wil Armstrong (whose father is former U.S. Senator Bill Armstrong), Secretary of State Mike Coffman, and State Senators Ted Harvey and Steve Ward. Coffman is highest on the totem pole. The winner of the Republican slugfest will face Democrat aviation consultant Hank Eng, who once served as a city councilman in Wisconsin. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 2.3 DEM): This is the most competitive district in all of Colorado: one-third Republicans, one-third Democrats and one-third independents. The seat, based in suburbs of Denver to its west (Lakewood, Wheat Ridge), north (Arvada, Commerce City, Golden) and east (Aurora), became open in 2006 when Bob Beauprez made an ill-fated bid for governor. Despite the competitive nature of this district, freshman Democrat Ed Perlmutter will not face a very strong challenge this year, and should be expected to do fine against financial planner John Lerew. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Kentucky.

Oh come on, it's just a scarf!

Being a mainstream conservative (and a traditionalist Republican), it irks me as to how some people, especially those who endear themselves to the Vocal Fringe Parade, aim to portray even those whose decision to wear a certain article of clothing has nothing to do with anti-American attitude as exactly that - a sympathist to terrorism.

The latest assault from the Vocal Fringe comes in the form of a scarf that celebrity chef and daytime talker Rachael Ray wore in an advertisement for Dunkin' Donuts, the colorful donut chain out of New England. The scarf is black and white in color, and its design is hardly in the form of something a terrorist would wear. After all, it is a fringe scarf, so for the most part you could hardly even tell that it is symbolic of terrorism, as seen here.

But the Vocal Fringe, led by right-wing commentator Michelle Malkin, raised the red flag in her blog, arguing:

The keffiyeh, for the clueless, is the traditional scarf of Arab men that has come to symbolize murderous Palestinian jihad. Popularized by Yasser Arafat and a regular adornment of Muslim terrorists appearing in beheading and hostage-taking videos, the apparel has been mainstreamed by both ignorant (and not-so-ignorant) fashion designers, celebrities, and left-wing icons.

- Michelle Malkin

The result: Dunkin' Donuts drops the ball and cancels the ads. From what I can tell, entertainment and fashion reporters have scoffed, the general public was up in arms, and even the business community is sounding the alarm.

Ironically enough, Malkin is a DD fanatic who prefers their coffee to Starbucks, as evidenced by the numerous posts relating to the chain (including DD's immigration stance which ironically I support). Unfortunately, for me I cannot make a comparison between the two, for there are no Dunkin' Donuts shops in the Fort Bend area. In her blog, which can be seen here, she even goes as far as mentioning the daughter of John McCain and her use of a similar scarf.

Being a mainstream Republican, it very well disgusts me that a vocal handful of people with a lack of common sense want to bully a well-known food prophetess on the Food Network all for the purpose of scoring brownie points. In reality, all it does is turn off true, mainstream Republicans who believe in the sunny optimism, hope and common sense that icons such as Ronald Reagan and Abraham Lincoln greatly championed.

Republicans should not have to kiss up to religious bigots or fringe bloggers to promote the Party of Lincoln. What got Reagan elected by a landslide in 1984 was his appeal to the average American, who can come from a working-class background and drive a mid-sized car such as a Taurus, hail from an affluent suburb driving a Beamer or Volvo (yes, my great-aunt is living proof of a Volvo-driving conservative), or come from the country with a Ford F-150 with all the trimmings. Trust me, you just have to find them.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part VII: Michigan

In this election cycle, the top issue of most voters has nothing to do with the military and a series of actions that have generated considerable attention. It is not the ongoing debate over immigration, either (though it is still a top-tier issue). And it definitely has nothing to do with divisive social issues that aren’t even worth debating. Instead, the top issue of most Americans is one that resonates across every spectrum of political thought…(drum roll)…the ECONOMY. And in no other state is this problem more prevalent than in a state that has seen better days…

MICHIGAN

Originally settled by various Native American tribes (such as those of the Algonquian variety), French explorers settled here in the 1600s. Parts of the territory resided within Canada until 1818 when the border between the United States and Canada was set, splitting the oldest city in Michigan and also in the Canadian province of Ontario, Sault Ste. Marie. Growth was modest until the Erie Canal opened in 1825, which led to the entrance of Michigan into the United States on January 26, 1837. In 1854, the Republican Party was born in the town of Jackson.

In the last century, Michigan has evolved into the heart of the domestic automotive industry. Detroit once boasted a population of around 2 million, which has since been drastically reduced due to outward movement into its suburbs following World War II, as well as racial tensions and high crime. Michigan also has more lighthouses (150 to be specific) than any other state. Michigan’s counties are largely dominated by those with German ancestry, with the exception of some largely Dutch areas of Western Michigan, a large base of Finnish-Americans in the northwestern part of the Upper Peninsula, and an African American majority in Wayne County, home to Detroit. Michigan has the largest groups of inhabitants with Dutch, Finnish and Macedonian ancestry of any state.

Recently, the auto industry’s downsizing has affected Michigan, and Metro Detroit is now one of the worst housing markets in the country due to its population relocating in search of jobs, even though automotive companies such as General Motors have been resilient even in their worst shape. Michigan has also recently been a leader in corporate expansions as well, and its schools and institutes of higher learning rank among the best in the nation.

Michigan is a common swing state in presidential years, and John Kerry won this state in 2004. It also gave Ronald Reagan his winning electoral votes in the landslide of 1984. The Grand Rapids area (which gave us former President Gerald Ford), along with various other northern and western sections of Michigan vote Republican, while the cities of Detroit along with Flint, Ann Arbor and Saginaw tend to vote Democratic, leaving the rest of Michigan (such as the Lansing area and the suburbs of Metro Detroit) up for grabs. At least two House seats in Michigan are being targeted this year, and the far right's "win at all costs" attitude that for years has turned off traditional Republicans has something to do with it.

NOTE: The primary is on August 5, 2008. Predictions could change based on various circumstances.

District 1 (S-Factor 1.8 GOP): Bart Stupak has consistently won re-election to his district which takes in the Upper Peninsula (Marquette, Sault Ste Marie) as well as the “fingertips” of the mitten-shaped Lower Peninsula including Alpena. Three Republicans, State Representative Tom Casperson, Attorney Linda Goldthorpe (another activist of the Ron Paul variety), and retired businessman Don Hooper are all running to take on Stupak, who for the most part has been resilient in re-election due to his pro-life stance in a district which tends toward social conservatism especially gun issues. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 9.3 GOP): This district covers the coastal portions of heavily Dutch Western Michigan stretching from Cadillac on down to Muskegon and Holland. Pete Hoekstra, a Dutchman himself and the ranking member of the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, has won this solidly Republican district since he was first elected in 1992. The Democrat nominee is college professor Fred Johnson. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 8.8 GOP): The Grand Rapids area dominates this Republican district, which once spawned the late President Ford, and Vern Ehlers has held on to this district easily since first being elected to succeed deceased Congressman Paul Henry (who died of a brain tumor) in 1993, which is not surprising given the district’s traditional trend towards fiscally conservative, small government Republicanism. Ehlers’ Democrat challenger is Henry Sanchez, a retired communications worker. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 3.8 GOP): Since the 1970s, this Traverse City and Midland-based district has elected Republicans, and since 1992 Dave Camp has represented this Republican-leaning district. Attorney Andrew Concannon is the Democrat in waiting. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 12.0 DEM): The heavily Democratic 5th District covers the Flint area as well as Saginaw and Bay City, all making for a heavily Democratic district, which has benefited longtime incumbent Dale Kildee, the longest serving Michigander in Congress outside of Metro Detroit. The Republican candidate is teacher Matt Sawicki. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 2.3 GOP): The 6th District takes in the southwestern corner of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula, including Kalamazoo and Benton Harbor. Since 1992, the home of Whirlpool has been the domain of Fred Upton. Kalamazoo City Commissioner Don Cooney is running as the Democrat nominee, but has yet to tread water. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 2.3 GOP): This Southern Michigan district, home to Tony the Tiger and the beginnings of the Republican Party, and centered around Battle Creek and Jackson, has not been a competitive district in years. However, the defeat of moderate Republican Joe Schwarz by far-right Republican Tim Walberg has put this district in the crosshairs of the D-Trip. 2006 Democrat nominee Sharon Renier is running again, but a stronger donkey, State Senator Mark Schauer is aiming to take on Walberg, and has even outraised the freshman. Will Walberg’s incumbency and the district’s Republican lean save him? Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 8 (S-Factor 1.8 GOP): Michael J. Rogers (middle initial inserted to distinguish from a similar-named Congressman down in the South) had a relatively close 13-point victory margin in 2006 against Jim Marcinkowski. His district stretches from the Lansing area eastward to the northern fringes of Oakland County, which makes for a rather competitive district. The Democrats have been slow to nominate a candidate, though, and retired state health official Bob Alexander has so far generated little enthusiasm. Prediction: Solid GOP

District 9 (S-Factor 0.3 DEM): Despite what the S-Factor suggests, the 9th tends toward moderate Republicans (and Dubya ain’t one of them). It takes in the bulk of wealthy Oakland County including Farmington Hills, Troy, Waterford and Rochester Hills. And Joe Knollenberg has for the most part fit the mold of the district since his first election in 1992 when he succeeded longtime Republican Bill Broomfield. Still, with a poor GOP climate this year, it doesn’t stop the D-Trip from focusing on this seat, as evidenced by Knollenberg’s tiny margin in 2006 against Nancy Skinner. This time, the Democrats have recruited former Michigan Lottery commissioner Gary Peters to run for the seat. The race is now even more intriguing with the independent candidacy of “Dr. Death” – Jack Kevorkian. Right now, Knollenberg is preferred, but with the Donkey Brigade aiming to tie even the most moderate of Republicans to an unpopular president, anything can happen in this district, and you can thank the vocal minority of far-right extremists for its recent shift many years ago. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 10 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): Most of the Thumb region is contained within this district, though a few parts of Metro Detroit, such as northern Macomb County, once known as a bastion of “Reagan Democrats”, but has now become an increasingly white-collar, Republican area. Blue-collar currents still exist particularly in Port Huron, though, and Candice Miller has consistently done well since her first election in 2002. The Democrats are once again fielding 2006 nominee Robert Denison. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 11 (S-Factor 0.8 GOP): Thaddeus McCotter has risen rather quickly since his first election in 2002 to this district which covers southwest Oakland County (including Novi), and northwest Wayne County (Westland, Livonia). McCotter has since played lead guitar in a congressional band, is a regular guest on Dennis Miller’s radio show, and now chairs the House Republican Policy Committee. Former Novi City Manager Ed Kriewall and attorney Joseph Larkin are the Democrat nominees, but neither has been able to catch up to McCotter despite the fact that his district is fairly competitive especially in the Wayne County portion. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 12 (S-Factor 12.8 DEM): While the suburbs of Metro Detroit are not technically Democratic, the most Democratic portions of Oakland (Southfield, Royal Oak, Ferndale) and Macomb (Clinton, St. Clair Shores, Warren) counties are stuffed into this district. Sander Levin has consistently won re-election to this district, and this year should be no different as Levin, whose younger brother Carl is up for re-election to the Senate this year, should expect to return to Congress over home health care executive Bert Copple. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 13 (S-Factor 32.3 DEM): This is a very heavily Democratic district based on Detroit’s east side which gave John Kerry 93 percent of the vote, but also including River Rouge, Harper Woods, Wyandotte and the Grosse Pointe suburbs. It has faced a multitude of setbacks over the years but has since started to roar back. Congressional Black Caucus chair Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick has held the seat since 1996 and won practically unopposed in 2006. In 2008, she is facing two primary challengers, State Senator Martha Scott and former State Representative Mary Waters, largely as a result of controversy surrounding her son, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick who has been hammered with a host of ethical and legal challenges. Regardless, expect the Democrat to prevail in November over Republican Edward Gubics. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 14 (S-Factor 33.5 DEM): The 14th is a tad bluer than the 13th to its east, taking in the western part of Detroit but also the heavily Arab city of Dearborn, and has been the exclusive domain of Judiciary Committee chair John Conyers since he was first elected in 1965. The GOP isn’t even fielding anyone. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 15 (S-Factor 12.8 DEM): Heavily Democratic in nature, the district is a combo of blue-collar voters in Wayne County (Romulus, Inkster), academics in Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti, and farmers in the rest of southeastern Michigan (Monroe County). For three generations, the Dingell family has dominated the district’s politics, and the Dean of the House, John Dingell, has been here since 1955 when he succeeded his deceased father. The chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Dingell’s biennial introduction of a national health insurance bill, avid support for gun rights, and defense of Detroit’s automotive industry will carry Dingell into yet another term over Republican candidate Jack Lynch. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Michigan is quite a state, nonetheless. And there is still a long way to go.

Next stop: Colorado.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part VI: Virginia

While Memorial Day is seen as a time of rest and relaxation (and a time of events most people would rather forget), we should all know that Memorial Day is celebrated to honor the men and women of our Armed Forces who gave their lives for the betterment of our great country. As we honor our veterans on this day, the Nifty Fifty continues with the one state that, while it was not the first admitted to the Union, marked the beginning of America over four centuries ago...

VIRGINIA

On May 13, 1607, Christopher Newport and John Smith founded Jamestown, marking the beginning of what eventually became known as the United States of America. By 1698, the capital moved to Williamsburg. And in 1776, as America declared independence, Thomas Jefferson drafted a constitution that declared Virginia's independence from the British Empire. Jefferson's concerns about an attack on Williamsburg eventually led to the relocation of the capital to Richmond, where it sits today. Richmond later served as the capitol of the Confederate States of America when Virginia seceded from the union in 1861. In 1971, over a century after the days of Reconstruction and Jim Crow had passed, the constitution was rewritten, and in 1990, Doug Wilder became Virginia's first African American governor.

The Mother of Presidents, Virginia has also spawned many states to its west, including West Virginia. The state consists of 39 independent cities as well as 95 counties holding jurisdiction over all of the state's incorporated towns and unincorporated communities. Virginia also has some of the nation's strongest public schools and institutes of higher learning, including the University of Virginia and Virginia Tech, and can boast of the largest non-Russian Fabergé egg collection, as well as musicians Patsy Cline, Jason Mraz, Dave Matthews, Ella Fitzgerald and Bruce Hornsby, among others. It is also home to a diverse economy, hosting military installations, defense contracting, coal mining, agriculture (i.e. tobacco, peanuts), wineries, and technology (computer chips are its top export). Televangelists by the likes of Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson have also hailed from this state. Not to mention the quintessential political analyst, Larry Sabato.

While traditionally a conservative state, Virginia has emerged as a political battleground in recent election cycles, and 2008 may be the most intriguing one for the Old Dominion. Besides being projected to do well in the central and southern parts of the state, the Hampton Roads area is home to many military families that could aid John McCain's chances, while the Black Belt Region will look to be a major focal point for Barack Obama along with the college towns of Charlottesville and Blacksburg. The coal miners in Southwest Virginia are also a potential voting bloc that could base their decisions on a weakened economy (but have questions about Obama's background and McCain's independent streak). However, the focal point of the race will be the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., which have shifted more to the Democrats (and Obama) due to the state GOP's alarming drift towards social conservatism but could swing towards the maverick McCain.

With Virginia having elected Democratic Governors to Richmond the last two times (there is a one-term limit here), popular former Governor Mark Warner seeking the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the unrelated John Warner, and control of the State Senate now in the Democrats' clutch, the stakes could not have been higher for the Republicans, where at least one congressional seat (and as many as four) could be in play...

NOTE: The primary is on June 10, 2008. Predictions could change based on various circumstances.

District 1 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): This district stretches across the Eastern Shore of the state from the suburbs of Washington, D.C. (Fredericksburg, parts of Fauquier and Prince William counties) down southward to Williamsburg and Poquoson. Rob Wittman took this seat in 2007 after fellow Republican and incumbent Jo Ann Davis died of breast cancer. The Democrats have nominated physician and farmer Keith Hummel, who was selected at a party convention in Williamsburg. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 5.5 GOP): Thelma Drake survived by the skin of her teeth in 2006 against Democrat Phil Kellam, the Revenue Commissioner in Virginia Beach, which along with Norfolk and the Commonwealth's share of the Delmarva Peninsula comprise the district. While Governor Tim Kaine carried this seat, John Kerry and Jim Webb did not. Drake is being targeted again, this time with former U.S. diplomat Glenn Nye, but with McCain expected to draw some support (as mentioned above) from Hampton Roads' military community, it could be a cakewalk for Drake. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 18.5 DEM): One common characteristic of most Southern states is a district drawn to contain a significant African-American base, and Bobby Scott's district is no exception. Scott has held the seat since 1993, which covers at least parts of Norfolk, Richmond, Newport News, Hampton and Portsmouth, as well as some surrounding counties. It has not been in play for a long time and will stay that way. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): Like Rob Wittman, Randy Forbes came to Washington on a post mortem vacancy, as he succeeded the late Norman Sisisky in 2001. Software designer Andrea Miller is running as the Democrat, but Forbes should be assured in his district which stretches in a counterclockwise direction from just south of Richmond on down to Chesapeake and Suffolk. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 5.0 GOP): Virgil Goode has been a man of three trades: a Democrat in the 90s, an independent afterwards, and nearly a year after 9/11 a Republican. While this district (which covers southern Virginia and Charlottesville) generally should not be in play, attorney and non-profit guru Tom Perriello is looking to change that. Perriello is benefitting from outpacing Goode in the fundraising department ($640K compared to Goode's $438K), the fact that Tim Kaine barely won the district, and Goode's recent slipup when he addressed concerns regarding Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison's use of a Qur'an (he is Muslim) in his swearing-in ceremony. But Perriello faces tough odds against Goode, whose social conservatism and populist tendencies have kept the latter in the safe column. The question is: will Perriello make enough of an effort to put the seat in play? Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 10.8 GOP): Bob Goodlatte, whose district covers Roanoke and Harrisonburg among other areas, has consistently won re-election since first being elected in 1992. Goodlatte should be safe against businessman Sam Rasoul. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 10.3 GOP): Eric Cantor is a person of importance within the GOP, as both the chief Deputy Republican Whip and the only Jewish Republican. His district covers the west end of Richmond, most of the capital city's suburbs and a significant share of the Shenandoah Valley, and Cantor should cruise to victory over Culpeper County Democrat Chair Anita Hartke. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 8 (S-Factor 13.8 DEM): With the exception of Bobby Scott's 3rd district, this is the most Democratic district in Virginia. It covers many of the bluest parts of Northern Virginia; places such as Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church and Reston come to mind. The quirky Jim Moran has been known for his brand of Democrat politics, which is somewhat populist, sometimes bizarre especially for a relatively urban-suburban district. A primary challenger exists in attorney Matt Famiglietti, and Republicans have fielded a warm-blooded, albeit longshot pair of candidates: banker Mark Ellmore and businessman Amit Singh. Both are party activists, with Singh of the Ron Paul variety. Still, in a district this blue, Moran should prevail. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 6.5 GOP): Since 1982, Rick Boucher has consistently won re-election to his southwest Virginia seat which is also the poorest in the state. And once again, barring a last minute fielding, Boucher won't have to worry about a Republican challenge. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 10 (S-Factor 5.0 GOP): Frank Wolf has always been a lock for re-election since he first came here in 1980, but in 2006 he received a scare from Georgetown Public Policy Institute Dean Judy Feder. Feder is running again, and is joined by retired Air Force officer Mike Turner in the Democratic primary. Financial analyst Vern McKinley is running against Wolf in the GOP primary. Wolf survived a bad GOP year as he did in 2006, but will 2008 be another deviation from the usual or another easy victory? Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 11 (S-Factor 0.5 GOP): There are a number of seats in play here in Virginia, but none more so than this district, the wealthiest in America a top pickup opportunity for the Democrats. Tom Davis, known as a walking bible amongst Republican campaign strategists, is a political fixture in Northern Virginia in spite of a number of irregularities. But a Democratic uprising here, which costs Davis' wife her State Senate seat last year, ended George Allen's Senate career in 2006 (when Davis scored 55% against Democrat Andrew Hurst), and gave Tim Kaine the governorship in 2005, will likely turn the seat blue this year (not to mention the fact that the Virginia GOP is somewhat too stubborn to talk about more realistic issues other than those of the religious right). Throw in Mark Warner's Senate candidacy and the battle lines are drawn. Four Democrats have filed to run, but the nomination battle is set between Fairfax County Chairman Gerry Connolly and Davis' predecessor in Congress, Leslie Byrne. Not all is lost for the Republicans, though with home inspection executive Keith Fimian raising close to one million dollars, enough to keep up with the Democrats. No matter how much the Democrats gain this year, this seat is still anyone's guess. Prediction: Tossup.

Next stop: Michigan.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part V: Alaska

Last time, New Hampshire was on the radar screen as I pondered the potential of its two congressional seats, which the GOP is trying to take back in a state that historically is its own. Now we go to another state, one that is big in size but small in power yet at the forefront of the Republicans' own problems...

ALASKA

The second-to-last state in the union, and one that gave proud Texans heartburn when it became a state in 1959, Alaska is the largest state in the union. It has more coastline than the entire remainder of the country, and its capital is inaccessible by means of motor vehicles (Hint: you have to practically go swimming to get to Juneau). The bulk of the state's population is centered in the middle of the state's southern tier around Anchorage, while the northern part of the state, the Alaskan Bush (home to America's northernmost city of Barrow) is home to hundreds of native villages.

There are many good things about Alaska, such as salmon fisheries, Iditarod, and its amazing scenery. And there are many bad things, such as volcanoes on the Aleutian Islands, the Good Friday Earthquake that devastated many villages in the state, and the Exxon Valdez spill.

Then there's the bizarre (and at times, quirky) nature of its politics. Granted, it is a heavily Republican state, but it also has a strong libertarian streak. A strong secession movement, the Alaskan Independence Party resides here, and over half of registered voters here are undeclared. All of Alaska's congressional officeholders are Republicans. One of them, Ted Stevens, is up for re-election and current prospects are not that bright with corruption allegations enveloping the longtime senator, given his longstanding support of pork projects (remember the Bridges to Nowhere?). His plan to restrict web access in public schools and libraries, a position consistent with the far-right extremist minority, has also generated news, though not as much as the Bridges.

Luckily, Stevens is in the Senate, so I will not go further on him in the Nifty Fifty. But there are issues abound with "Alaska's third Senator"...

NOTE: Filing has not closed yet, If any significant developments come up I will let you know.

At-Large (S-Factor 12.5 GOP) Alaska's Republican dominance is in jeopardy, despite Governor Sarah Palin's well-deserved, much-needed reforms of a bloated state government (not to mention her attractiveness, she was once a beauty queen) and very high approval ratings (almost to the 90s). Don Young, the state's only congressman since 1973, has increasingly become a liability due to some of his recent stances, particularly in regards to the earmark process that has now become a focal point of debate among House Republicans.

While not a far-right congressman (he often has crossed party lines mostly on labor issues), Young's recent missteps have become a laundry list of sorts, including around half a billion dollars invested in two bridges (one of which would have borne his name), blasting a fiscally conservative Republican, New Jersey's Scott Garrett, for attempting to remove a piece of pork (and then blaming him and his fellow fiscal conservatives for the party's loss of control, even blasting Garrett's home state in the process), has been linked to Jack Abramoff, rudely scoffed at John McCain's request that Young give up some of his earmarks to help Hurricane Katrina victims, earmarked an interchange in Florida that Young claimed was endorsed by Congressman Connie Mack (who along with other Republicans in Mack's district opposed it), and is now under criminal investigation for bribery allegations involving VECO, an Alaska corporation accused of bribing Alaska state legislators. Already, Young has racked up $250,000 in legal fees pertaining to the VECO matter, and has done nothing more than contribute many reasons why we have a do-nothing Congress, and why Republicans are faced with the possibility of losing truckloads of seats this year.

Young is seen as vulnerable, with polls showing Young trailing former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz. Young's 2006 challenger, Diane Benson is also running again, but I expect the latter to defer to Berkowitz. On the Republican side, State Representative Gabrielle LeDoux and Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell are challenging Young. Parnell, with the endorsement of Governor Palin and the National Review is considered the stronger of the two, and will look to take out Young, a possibility that is becoming increasingly likely with each passing day. Alaskans will take three routes: stick with experience (Young, a route that is least likely), replace him with a rookie in the minority (Parnell), or replace him with a majority party newbie (Berkowitz). The question is: which one? Prediction: Tossup.

Next stop: Virginia (Finally, a big state).

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part IV: New Hampshire

After a four-day recess, and a look at Nevada, where one congressional seat had gone between being in play, then not in play, and within a day back in play again, our next trip take us to the most conservative state in the Northeast...

NEW HAMPSHIRE

The ninth state to enter the union, New Hampshire is known for its motto, "Live Free or Die", a testament to the state's libertarian livelihood. It offers up a host of activities, from auto racing to skiing to fall foliage, throughout the state. It was once the home of the Old Man of the Mountain until an unexpected turn of events led to the collapse of the famed formation. It is predominantly rural in the north and more suburban in the south, the latter the result of its positioning in the Boston area (which I'll explain later). The state's lake region hosts a variety of summer camps, and during ski season there are more miles of snowmobile trails in the state than there are roads. New Hampshire can also boast some firsts: the world's first publicly-funded library, the first forestry conservation organization, the birth state of Tupperware, the first American in space (Alan Shepard), and the first state lottery in the modern era. It also gave us Christa McAuliffe, the first teacher in space who tragically perished in the Challenger disaster of 1986.

Politically, it is as mentioned above, libertarian. The Free State Project is based here in New Hampshire. The fourth-largest legislative body in the English francophone world, can be found here in the New Hampshire House of Representatives, and members only get paid at least $100 a year. Local control is the norm here, as cities and towns can set as many rules as they want, while the state keeps government influence to a bare minimum and imposes no state income or sales taxes. The roots of the Republican Party can be traced to Exeter in 1853, but what was once a safe bet for the GOP is now a swing state, as George W. Bush could not hold on to the Granite State in 2004 as he did in 2000 (Then again, W's politics are not reflective of the Republican establishment here). 2006 was a nightmarish year for New Hampshire Republicans who lost the state's two congressional seats, control of the General Court (both the State House and State Senate), and gave Democrat Governor John Lynch a 3-to-1 landslide. Now Republicans, hoping to ride on John McCain's relatively libertarian streak, hope to take back the two seats it squandered.

NOTE: Filing has not closed yet, If any significant developments come up I will let you know.

District 1 (S-Factor 0.0) This is the most conservative congressional district in all of New England, and it is a politically marginal one as well. But it still fell to the Democrats, albeit in the most surprising manner as many pundits did not even expect Jeb Bradley to lose to anti-war activist Carol Shea-Porter. In fact, Shea-Porter wasn't even the establishment candidate as the Democratic nomination was supposed to go to State House Democrat Leader Jim Craig who ended up getting 34% of the vote in the primary compared to Shea-Porter's 54%. The district covers the Manchester area in the south and east central parts of the state such as Laconia in the north. Bradley is looking to take back the seat, and will look to give Shea-Porter a pure fight, especially now that Shea-Porter has the incumbency handicap. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 3.0 DEM) Unlike Shea-Porter, Paul Hodes had an easier time dispatching incumbent Charlie Bass, who has thus far ruled out a rematch. Hodes' district takes in a significant chunk of the North Country as well as the capital city of Concord and the high-tech Boston exurbs (including Nashua) that had been shifting blue in recent years. With John McCain the presumptive Republican nominee, though, Hodes is not necessarily a safe bet for re-election despite being elected the President of the Democratic Freshman Class of 2006, serving in a somewhat blue district, and raising a massive warchest (to the tune of $1.3 million in donations). State Senator Bob Clegg and radio talker Jennifer Horn appear to be the leading candidates, but funding figures have lagged for the two as of last March. Prediction: Favor DEM.

Next stop: Alaska (I know, another little state, but it's one with big implications).