Where Do We Go From Here?

With 2008 slipping into the history books, I am now making sense as to how the results of the 2008 election turned out the way they did. From what yours truly can explain and understand, it is neither worth writing home about nor whining and complaining over. It is not a step forward or a step back. And it is definitely not a comparison of one America versus the other America. Instead, it served as the lesson of a year where the overwhelming desire for change and forward progress in America overtook the status quo of experience and jaded reflections of our glorious past.

The Democrats emerged victorious on November 4th with the capture of the White House and the pickup of several GOP seats, some of which elected Republicans for decades. They also made gains in the Senate, gained the Governor's Mansion in the swing state of Missouri, and broke into many reliably Republican suburbs, while sweeping Republicans out of New England in the House, shutting Senate Republicans out of the West Coast, and cutting into vaunted GOP strongholds by the likes of Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana, generally restricting Republican victories to Southern states such as Texas and Georgia and Appalachian states by the likes of West Virginia and Kentucky, and stealing one of Nebraska's five electoral votes in the process. With a bad economy, infighting between Republicans over the presidential ticket, and fatigue from a presidency that was anything but inspiring, I knew it was going to be a disaster waiting to happen, but in the end the disaster turned out to be milder than I thought it would be while also providing the prospects of a new Republican future.

A Personal Reflection

For me, 2008 began with a focus on the GOP primary for the 22nd Congressional District here in Texas. Sprawled out over a narrow strip of four counties (in geographical order): Fort Bend, Brazoria, Harris and Galveston, and taking a mixture of working-class small towns, minority enclaves, and affluent suburbs (one or two of these three clusters is definitely rising in population), it was the "accidental representative" in Democrat Nick Lampson versus a field of ten Republicans whose bases were largely derived from their experiences - and their roots. Shelley Sekula Gibbs was the seat warmer in Christmas of 2006 after a colorful career on Houston City Council, but she already damaged herself with her sloppy handling of the dismissal of Tom DeLay's staff, which is not uncommon with new members of Congress.

Ten candidates filed on my side of the fence to take out Lampson. In the early stages, the candidate I endorsed was Dean Hrbacek, the former mayor of Sugar Land whose six years were marked by a time of prosperity for Fort Bend with the beginning stages of Sugar Land Town Square and a host of other economic development initiatives and continued a long line of steady Sugar Land leadership and growth that continues to this day. While the campaign was short-lived (fifth place courtesy of terrible results in the Harris portion), the effort and hard work espoused by me, his supporters and his staff was nothing less than our 110 percent. In the end, I threw my support in the runoff and general election behind Pete Olson, a former Senatorial aide to Senators Phil Gramm and John Cornyn who quickly locked the establishment vote after the ten candidates were set in stone.

But despite the attention given to this race, the primary was overshadowed by the 2-to-1 Democratic edge in Fort Bend and many other large Texas counties thanks to a competitive primary between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and efforts by talk-radio kingpin Rush Limbaugh and others to entice Republicans to cross over and aid Hillary. I knew this problem was evident at my precinct convention in a wealthy Sugar Land neighborhood where many of the guests were walking into the Democrats' convention (though this has more to do with the fact that Texas Democrats have a hybrid primary/caucus fusion versus our plain GOP primaries, and I know very well that there are some Democrats who want to do away or at least tinker with the Texas Two-Step). The only thing that differentiated us from the crowd was the fact that we generally wore suits, slacks and leather shoes versus the usual commonwealth cloths of the Dem caucusers. My uncle, who can best be classified as a libertarian-leaning, anti-Vocal Fringe Republican but cast his vote for Hillary, neither attended their caucus nor wanted to join my convention.

The problems were further exacerbated by the county convention, where our predominantly affluent and Republican precinct fielded a mere 27 delegates out of 40, and some precincts - even ones that John McCain won - even reported ONE delegate. "If you don't like McCain, get over it" became a rallying cry. Of course, John McCain was not my first choice, for my political capital was behind former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani to begin with, and then after Rudy left the race, rallied to former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney on Super Tuesday until he dropped out as well. In my first-ever county convention, while I applied for a state-level delegate slot and lost out to more experienced Republicans, my shortcomings can be seen as only the beginning of my political career as I represent the future of the party.

While I did not campaign between the end of the convention and Election Day (for personal and non-political reasons I am not going to state), I continued to contribute whatever efforts I could through the internet. My curiosity with the nature of the House races and the competitiveness waged by many Democratic candidates inspired me to launch my own research into the most important election in our lifetime. My massive project, cleverly titled The Nifty Fifty House Party, was the end result, and it took an enormous chunk of political capital to do. (As a measure of clarity, the ratings as I predicted then are not what I predicted in the end, for I accidentally erased my final predictions on Election Night.)

A Mixed Blessing

On Election Day, I clicked the vote for McCain on the hope that the old McCain (the earmark-busting maverick who fought for what was right even as his colleagues skewered him) would come back in place of the McCain that emerged (a Bush 43 clone who ditched his maverick image and began to back a great number of the President's flawed "compassionate conservatism" ideals). The campaign received a boost with Sarah Palin who galvanized the conservative base and is now being pegged as the leading GOP candidate for 2012. However, that boost was short-lived as McCain's feeble attempts to galvanize the so-called "base" turned off some more principled conservatives who balked at McCain's support for the artery-clogging $700 billion bailout, while some more sensible Republicans who found fault in Palin's "attack dog" mantra and hardline conservatism shifted their votes to Obama or a third-party candidate. Not all is lost, for Palin will have four more years to cultivate and salvage her image as will many other Republicans who are waiting for their big moment. After all, we may even get a relative unknown to step up to the plate in 2012 just as we did with Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. Whether or not a resurgence will happen by then depends on GOP efforts in the next four years and Obama's record at the White House.

That being said, this is a historic time for America. Barack Obama has broken barriers that some envisioned would never be broken, and even inspired many of my fellow Republicans, some of whom may have crossed the line to cast their ballots for the Illinois Senator. As someone who had the blessing of attending a high school whose largely affluent student body came from a variety of ethnic, cultural, social, economic and political backgrounds, had enormous respect from various faculty members and parents, and had a variety of friends that ranged from cheerleaders and football players to band leaders and drama superstars, guitar aficionados and hip-hop aspirants to computer buffs and DECA marketers, I celebrate the arrival of a new era in America that is defined by what unites us as one country instead of what divides us, and thus far Obama has put together a blue-ribbon team of Cabinet appointees that spans across the political spectrum. At the same time, the failures of 2008 serve to spark the beginning of a much-needed renewal for the Party of Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan.

The race was a wake-up call for my entire family, which usually votes Republican, albeit in a rather negative fashion. My great-aunt, a former GOP precinct chair in Montgomery County north of Houston, or Monco as I personally like to call it, thought young people who turned out strongly for Obama should not be allowed to vote. Another uncle of mine, himself an intelligent business conservative, thought the GOP may have lost the business vote because of the social conservatives' influence. And my cousin, who like me was somewhat undecided before swinging towards McCain in the end, asked me if I was freaking out. The answer? I definitely did not because it is just plain stupid to assume the sky is falling when the vote doesn't go my way. To me, I saw Barack Obama's historic victory not as a shortcoming of GOP efforts, but rather as a mandate on the negative connotations of a stale, outdated GOP brand in need of a good dose of WD-40, and judging from the Facebook status updates on Election Night, a lot of my old high school friends, Republican and Democrat, espoused many views from being scared about having a Democrat (or in one case, a "babykiller") in the White House, to savoring an Obama victory and declaring "It's a beautiful night". For what it was worth, the election was nothing more than a mixed blessing.

The Meaning of Being Republican

The GOP's problem went well beyond the presidential race. The blame game was alive and well even before the final votes were counted. Moderates want to say that social conservatives' litmus tests and purity police are responsible for the party's decline, while conservatives argue that the party is simply not being conservative or "American" enough. In fact, they are both wrong...they both lost for a variety of circumstances. Some of the moderates that lost either faced difficult situations (especially in regards to the Obama vote and external economic issues which played a role in the defeat of Michigan's Joe Knollenberg and Connecticut's Christopher Shays) or caved in to the Religious Right (as Iowa's Jim Leach did in his support of anti-poker legislation, which I found rather stupid and most likely led to his defeat in 2006). But many moderates also retired as well, among them names like Ohio's Ralph Regula, Minnesota's Jim Ramstad and Virginia's Tom Davis. Meanwhile, for conservatives, it is rather silly that they revel in the increasing conservative ranks of the GOP when in fact a lot of their own went down in defeat as well, from Colorado's Marilyn Musgrave and Idaho's Bill Sali out west to Tim Walberg in Michigan, who was elected in 2006 with help from hardcore conservative groups who helped defeat a more moderate Republican.

Republicans will also have to deal with shifting winds in one of its most reliable voting blocs. The evangelical community is moving more towards a Christian Democracy-inspired platform that diversifies beyond gay marriage and abortion to include the environment, poverty and other issues that unite younger evangelicals. Mike Huckabee is one such example. To go further, I would have cast my vote against Prop 8 if I were in California, to the detriment of my own socially conservative family, because we are long past the days of Jim Crow. Imposing a ban on a certain segment of the population for superficial reasons (i.e. our children will lose their innocence, our children will be indoctrinated, etc.) would have created a sheer ripple effect across the deserts and mountains of California on down to its glorious coastline, and it would have also depressed California's already nightmarish financial situation with companies being forced into anti-discrimination lawsuits, among other irregularities. And I personally would never be a homosexual in any way, shape or form.

Going even further into perspective, on my views on abortion lies a fine line between a social conservative and a Religious Right conservative - I am none of the latter and some of the former in the form of my free subscription to the Consistent Life Ethic which contradicts some of the GOP's platform on issues such as the death penalty, and my middling stance on Planned Parenthood (which should focus more on other services such as emergency contraception, cancer screenings, STD testing, and menopause treatments). And if the Vocal Fringe keeps on bastardizing social conservatism and conservatism in general to the point where conservatives of any stripe are seen as a "hate group", then just like Lyndon B. Johnson once told an aide "We have lost the South for a generation", Republicans might as well lose the coastlines, the well-informed, the youth, and more troubling, the business vote and the suburbs, for a generation, and nothing would boil my blood more than for this to happen. To put it in perspective, the government is one nation under God and will continue to be, but the government is not supposed to be God. The Religious Right is more interested in money and power than ministry and scripture.

Additionally, some of these "conservatives" have either turned out to be hypocrites as evidenced by the falls of some social conservative champions. For starters, Idaho's Larry Craig was seen as a family values conservative but later became known for an act of wide stance cottaging in a bathroom stall at the airport in Minneapolis. And there are also many so-called "conservatives" who have been anything but conservative. For me, there is nothing conservative about record deficits, wasteful spending, and butting into the lives of ordinary Americans (whether in the form of religious theocracy or overzealous nanny statism) simply to please the interests of groups that lack patience such as parents who think it is better to invest their life savings in a concert featuring a tween pop sensation (but not necessarily the stars themselves) that will become only a memory come 2012 as opposed to investing in a college education which lasts a lifetime. People will think I am being an anti-family grinch for what I just said, but we must face hard reality: we cannot mortgage our country on our children's backs anymore, and this is NOT a Democrat or Republican position, this is a REAL conservative position. Parents must be parents, not friends, to their children, and must not be afraid to say NO. Yes, your kids might as well go ahead and cry their eyes out, but my TRUE conservative parents taught me to put what matters long-term ahead of any short-term trend that exists. In full, being a Republican is supposed to mean a belief in fiscal restraint, personal responsibility, a strong and prepared defense, and a hearty commitment to the American Dream, NOT attaching costly and unrelated riders to major bills, conquering and dividing electorates, misplacing economic and defense priorities for personal gain, and prodding into the lives of everyday Americans.

As Ronald Reagan put it:

"If you analyze it I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism. I think conservatism is really a misnomer just as liberalism is a misnomer for the liberals–if we were back in the days of the Revolution, so-called conservatives today would be the Liberals and the liberals would be the Tories. The basis of conservatism is a desire for less government interference or less centralized authority or more individual freedom and this is a pretty general description also of what libertarianism is."

- Ronald Reagan, from Reason Magazine, July 1975

Additionally, Reagan also stated that "All great change in America begins at the dinner table". This is personally true for me as change in America begins with a simple family dinner and a nice family conversation, focused on a reinforcement of family tradition and a detailed foresight into tomorrow where good advice and the American Spirit are fostered. While Reagan serves as an inspiration to me and millions of Republicans, a need for a new brand of conservative leadership is needed to continue the conservative legacy. Reagan has died long ago and is not coming back. It is time to adapt the principles of our past to a new generation of Americans committed to the future.

A New Stage Is Being Set

Now if I were to play my cards, conservatism will be entering a new stage: where aiming to reduce the national debt (inevitable given the bailout bonanza on Capitol Hill), provide a clean environment that also benefits our economy (the Pickens Plan is a giant step forward), and offer an improved, efficient infrastructure (but definitely NOT in the form of the pork-laden Trans-Texas Corridor) will become integral parts of the platform, where constructive issues like immigration, education and health care will be offered in the form of sensible, efficient alternatives to the Democrats' expected bureaucracy and bungling courtesy of such committee chairs as House Ways and Means Committee boss Charlie Rangel, and where hot-button social issues will take a more pragmatic turn, including finding innovative ways to reduce abortion as opposed to the Prohibitionist mantra of simply criminalizing the practice, because given the sickening nature of abortion, there will always be women that have to have one regardless of any efforts that aim to put a stop to it.

Summing it up, the GOP needs to regroup and get its ducks in order. Blaming social conservatives will not work because not all are "easy to command" types dictated by figures like James Dobson, but rather tend to follow the same ethically sound message that I follow in what I call The Ethic. Booting out the business Republicans will further depress the ranks because they provide the innovation, charisma and entrepreneurial spirit that sews the fabric of our future (and in a sense, may force such voters to vote against their interests). Telling the libertarian Ron Paul Republicans to hit the road is elitist at best as they share many of the same values of freedom and liberty that many true conservatives do. Attacking moderates will do nothing more than burn down the big tent and will only serve to relegate Republicans to dreaded permanent minority status. And making us believe that "deficits don't matter" will boil fiscal conservatives' blood and force the GOP down the same road as the Whigs, a road that we are not willing to take and which will also doom the American Dream.

As a Republican who stands strong in the face of adversity along the lines of Lincoln, cherishes the benefits of a clean environment ala Roosevelt, praises the effectiveness of a top-shelf infrastructure that partially bears the namesake of Eisenhower, and espouses the sunny optimism and peace through strength as defined by Reagan, I find the party at a troubling crossroads. Members of my family don't even know the Republicans anymore, and it seems sometimes that I am the only Republican left. With that in mind, I am looking forward to helping rebuild the party and restore its commitment to freedom, prosperity and sound policy. The challenges I will have to deal with won't be easy, but I am very optimistic that with a broad coalition of committed Americans who want to see a return to reason, a restoration of common sense, and a renewal of the American Dream, the Republican Party can make a comeback.

Today, I no longer consider myself a Republican. I am a New Republican. And I am ready to make the commitment to bring a New Day to America. The Elephant Stampede will roar more than it ever has before. The big tent will rise again.

And so Election 2008 comes to a close...

...with tonight's race in State Senate District 17. With 99 percent of the vote (two precincts still at large) in, my new State Senator is Joan Huffman.

Republican Joan Huffman 24,221 (56.31%)
Democrat Chris Bell 18,792 (43.68%)

The Elephant Stampede holds this one. With that, the most important election season of our time draws to a close.

More Huffin' CowBell...

It's now just past nine...

With under two-thirds of the precincts reporting...

Joan Huffman 18,796 (56.62%), Chris Bell 14,397 (43.37%)

I expected a competitive race, but given name recognition and overconfident donkeys on parade, not like this.

One last race...

Hello, it's me again, and while it has been a rather long time since I last truly posted (not including Greetings), I can now report one last race for 2008...which is in my home base.

Between dinner, untangling spare Christmas lights that aren't being used and a showing of a recent film known as The Darjeeling Limited on pay TV (HBO Signature, specifically), I am tracking the Texas Senate runoff in District 17 between Democrat (and former gubernatorial candidate) Chris Bell and Republican Joan Huffman.

As of 7:47 (update and revision)...

Huffman 11,286 (62.33%), Bell 6,820 (37.66%)

There's more to come tonight.

The results are in!

Sorry for the delay, but here are the final results from tonight:

Barack Obama is now the 44th President of the United States, having officially been declared the winner of the race just after the West Coast polls closed.

Democrats have picked up Senate seats in Virginia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Colorado and New Mexico, with competitive races in Georgia, Oregon, Minnesota and Alaska still undecided. The current Senate composition for the 111th Congress is 56 Democrats, 40 Republicans, and 4 seats to be decided.

A number of GOP House seats have gone to the Democrats, though a few seats that were held by Democrats are now in the Republicans' hands (see below for one seat).

The Democrats also picked up a governorship in Missouri.

And here in Fort Bend, the results are a grab bag...

Democrat Chris Bell and Republican Joan Huffman (my two picks) will go to a runoff for the State Senate District 17 seat.

Democrat Richard Morrison has edged Republican Greg Ordeneaux for County Commissioner Precinct 1.

Sugar Land voters supported all four parts of a plan to bring a Cultural Entertainment District here, Missouri City residents voted strongly in favor of a bond issue to improve city parks and the golf course at Quail Valley, and Rosenberg residents (two-thirds in fact) rejected a zoning ordinance proposal.

And in Congressional District 22, Republican Pete Olson defeats incumbent Democrat Nick Lampson to take District 22 back for the Republicans.

As for the White House: John McCain won here...with 50.9 percent compared to 48.6 percent for Obama.

More details later.

Welcome to Election Day 2008

Today is Tuesday, November 4, 2008...Election Day.

Today, all across the United States, millions of Americans will be casting their votes in a historic election that aims to set public policy for the next generation. There are many scenarios that will arise from today's vote, which will aim to shape the destiny of the United States in the coming years.

In America, we will be deciding a new president, the 44th President of the United States. Democrats will look to make history with Senator Barack Obama, who will aim to become the first African American President of the United States, while Republicans will look to move on after the Bush years with Senator John McCain. In addition, a third of the United States Senate (including two special elections), all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, and eleven governorships along with an assortment of ballot initiatives will be at stake. In addition, control of state legislatures is at stake in all 50 states.

In Fort Bend County (my home base), these are the races in my jurisdiction:

• Special election for an open State Senate Seat. This is SD17 which used to be the Kyle Janek seat; former Congressman Chris Bell will attempt to pick up the seat against another Democrat (even though Bell is viewed by the Democratic establishment as the only true Democrat in the race) and four Republican opponents; the leading GOP candidates are former Bush 41 staffer/Republican activist Austen Furse and former State District Judge Joan Huffman. Whether or not a runoff ensues depends on tonight.
  
• The Presidency (of course).
• U.S. Senate (John Cornyn will fight back a dark horse challenge from Rick Noriega).
• Congress (Nick Lampson will attempt to fend off a strong challenge from Pete Olson).
• Various statewide offices, judicial offices and county offices, as well as State Representative (My State Representative, Charlie Howard, is unopposed).
• Four bond proposals related to a new Cultural Entertainment District in Sugar Land, including a minor league baseball stadium, an indoor concert venue, and other facilities along with tax adjustments to pay for the project.
  

Finally, in other parts of Fort Bend, a competitive County Commissioner's race is ongoing, and the community of Weston Lakes is looking to build its inaugural municipal government, among other initiatives.

I will be updating this blog to let you know what is going on...stay tuned!

So, you're not gonna show up?

Given his court-induced win in 2006, Congressman Nick Lampson (D-TX 22) knew that he couldn't take any debate for granted. On October 20th, the Rosenberg-Richmond Area Chamber of Commerce was to sponsor a debate featuring Lampson and Republican candidate Pete Olson, as well as Libertarian candidate John Wieder. Lampson called his decision to take part in the debate 'tentative' back in February while ten Republicans were battling for their party's nomination.

And now Lampson won't be at the debate, leaving the Chamber's board of directors speechless.

The Lampson camp calls it a 'scheduling decision', and spokesperson Trevor Kincaid argues that Lampson did not 'promise to attend'. The camp did make a mention about Lampson's obligations in Washington as well as the incumbent's decision to take part in a Clear Lake-area event of similar nature to the Rosenberg event. What is rather contradictory is whether or not Olson confirmed to take part in the Clear Lake debate...Lampson's spokesperson argues Olson has not committed to the event, but the Olson camp argues their candidate did accept the invitation.

While I agree that the Clear Lake portion is especially important to the district (it contains the Johnson Space Center), this last-minute foible will likely affect Lampson's performance in the Fort Bend portion of the district, throwing the Lampson camp into panic mode -- which will force the Congressman to rely on the Harris portion for a victory.

Chris Bell 2.0 (er...4.0)

The race to replace former State Senator Kyle Janek is growing. Three Republicans are running: former Bush 41 appointee and low-tax activist Austen Furse, GOP precinct chair (nothing significant; there are several) Grant Harpold, and former Harris County felony court judge Joan Huffman.

The fourth candidate pops up, this time a Democrat. The name: Chris Bell.

That's right, the former gubernatorial candidate, one-term congressman, and one-time mayoral candidate is throwing his hat into the ring. In order to win without going to a runoff, Bell will have to amass 50 percent of the vote, and his strengths lie in name recognition and background. The question is, how will he outrun the GOP establishment? The 17th State Senate District, which Janek vacated recently, looks so irregular on paper that it practically resembles a splatter from a Jackson Pollock painting. Don't believe me? Here's the lowdown:

• The district begins in Harris County, in the Bellaire/Meyerland/West University Place area near the Texas Medical Center. This area is relatively pink (slightly GOP but willing to vote Democrat sometimes), and tends to be socially liberal.
• After taking in a chunk of the Sharpstown area, it connects along a stretch of Richmond Avenue beginning west of Voss Road. It then takes in much of west Houston west of Dairy Ashford south of I-10 and west of State Highway 6 north of I-10, including the Alief area, the Energy Corridor, and much of the Katy area within Harris including the Barker Reservoir. Significant GOP areas exist here, though Alief tends to be more Democratic.
  
• The district goes southward into Fort Bend County, taking in Meadows Place, much of Sugar Land (myself included) and southern Missouri City, along with a large rural expanse in the southeast of the county that houses the Brazos Bend State Park and the George Observatory. This is a largely Republican area with traces of ethnic diversity.
  
• A significant western shaving of Brazoria County is thrown into the district, including the Lake Jackson and Freeport areas as well as smaller communities such as Sweeny and Surfside Beach. It is a relatively Republican area.
• Galveston County is the next stop in this district, including the heavily Democratic enclave of Galveston Island. And yes, the Galveston Seawall is in this district. A piece of Texas City is thrown into this district as well. The heavily Democratic base here includes unionized refinery workers.
• Finally, the district goes along a stretch of State Highway 87 to include Port Arthur, which boasts a significant African-American population and tends to vote Democrat.
  

While 3-to-2 Republican on paper, a Democrat could conceivably win this seat (hence the boast of so-called "changing demographics"). After all, this was once the domain of State Senator Babe Schwartz, whose liberal-leaning oratory according to Texas Monthly was "the best entertainment the Capitol had to offer."

Now to think about it, how do the dynamics of this race shape up? Stay tuned...

Well you know, we're in deep ____

As if the last two embarrassments weren't bad enough, last night was even worse for the Republican Party, which is still trying to shake off its perception as a party of war, far-right extremism and greed (ideals the majority of Republicans do not, have never, and will never share), and overcome Howard Dean's false myth of the GOP as a "white, Christian party" (more on that later).

In Mississippi, in the heavily Republican 1st District centered in the northern part of the state, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis, who normally would have been a sure shot to win the vacant seat of newly minted U.S. Senator Roger Wicker, ended up squandering his opportunity to Travis Childers, a Democrat chancery clerk in rural Prentiss County. The margin, 54 to 46, was a somewhat significant improvement over Childers 1-percent plurality in the first leg of the special election.

Given that nibblet of more bad news for a party that to my own disbelief can't seem to shake off hardcore lobbyists, distance themselves from the religious right, or keep its pants zipped, many would wonder if this will be another 1974 for the GOP. Sure, Republican strategists will call it a horrible year with Barack Obama drifting closer to the White House, but in my opinion, it is really a good year for Republicans such as myself for four reasons:

1. The Democrats campaigned to the right - Travis Childers is a conservative, meat-and-potatoes Democrat in a district that for decades was home to Jamie Whitten (and fell to Wicker in the Republican Revolution when Whitten retired). Had the Democrat been a wee bit more closer to the party's base, a Republican would hold the seat now. Childers and Davis ran strong campaigns in their parties' respective primaries, and both parties used extensive resources (i.e. Dick Cheney at a Davis rally) to promote their parties' principles.

2. The playbook of Freedom's Watch - Just like in Baton Rouge with Don Cazayoux's victory over Woody Jenkins in Louisiana's 6th District last year, Freedom's Watch, an advocacy front for the War on Terror, shot itself in the foot once again just as it did in Louisiana. The group tried to paint Childers as a hardcore liberal (which Childers shrugged off) and ended up getting booted by one local television station that aired an ad the group produced, for the ad broke the golden rule of a "clean campaign": never sling mud no matter much you crave for the golden calf of victory. Ironically enough, the station happened to be Memphis' Fox affiliate, WHBQ. The organization's marketing did work, though, in Ohio's 5th district, where Bob Latta benefited over Democrat Robin Weirauch, (who unlike Cazayoux and Childers was not a conservative in any way, shape or form but rather a union-vote, lunch-pail Democrat).

3. Opposites attracted - Just like Bill Foster gained the conservative Chicago Tribune's endorsement and Jim Oberweis, that of the liberal Sun-Times' in Illinois' 14th district (which Foster snagged), Childers was painted as the tax cutter and Davis, the tax hiker. When comparing apples to oranges, one common goal of Republicans is to promote fiscal conservatism. However, Childers himself was the one with the pro-growth record whereas Davis was nagged by Childers for raising taxes.

4. The district is conservative, but not overly so - As explained by Jamie Whitten's longstanding tenure in a conservative district, and the prominence of conservative Democrats in the South, it is not a vastly Republican district. But don't get me wrong, this is a red district, and Childers would in the foreseeable future be a target for the GOP. But unlike my district back in Texas which registers a heavily GOP S-Factor in the double digits, Mississippi's 1st has an S-Factor of only 9.5 GOP. Given that, if Childers reneges on his promises, Davis may have a shot to win the seat after all in November. And there are a great many Republicans in bluer districts who are sure shots for re-election this November.

In all, Republicans are not facing 4th and 20, but rather I see a new day coming to the Republican Party. The days of flaunt, extremism and what matters to Washington over common sense, decency and what matters to America are coming to an end. Come 2010, which I predict will be a year of bipartisanship, fresh faces, and new beginnings, and the Republican Party will look nothing like your father's Oldsmobile.

RUNOFF FINALE

The Runoff results are in!

REPUBLICANS

In CD22: Pete Olson 68.5%, Shelley Sekula Gibbs 31.5% - Olson wins in a cakewalk.

In HD144: Ken Legler nudges past Fred Roberts, albeit by just over three percent.

In Harris (D.A.'s race): Pat Lykos wins over Kelly Siegler, 52.6% to 47.4% - just what I wanted to hear. Now we can get REAL change in that office.

And here in Fort Bend: Greg Ordeneaux is leading Tom Stavinoha, 55.3% to 44.7% in the battle for County Commish in Precinct 1. They haven't called this yet, but it appears Stavinoha is out.

DEMOCRATS

In Fort Bend: As for the Democrat in the commish race in Precinct 1, Richard Morrison won handily over Sharon Wallingford. Will his activism (the Grand Parkway issue in the west, the landfill in the east) and one-time run against Tom DeLay sway some GOP voters his way?

RRC (2014): Mark Thompson wins easily over Dale Henry. Next stop: incumbent Michael Williams.


OUT-OF-TOWN SCOREBOARD

CD32: Pete Sessions' Democrat challenger will be Eric Roberson, who won handily tonight over Steve Love.

HD52 GOP: Bryan Daniel will be the nominee. He defeated Dee Hobbs, 53.6% to 46.4%. The Democrat in the race for this seat (which covers Round Rock, Georgetown and other north Austin suburbs) is Diana Maldonado. This is a top-tier race.

HD55: Ralph Sheffield defeats Martha Tyroch, 63.5% to 36.5%. This is the Temple-area seat left open by Dianne White Delisi.

HD81: Tryon Lewis wins in a walk, 3 to 1, over Buddy West in the Odessa area, right next to Tom Craddick's Midland base.

HD112: Angie Chen Button wins the race for this seat in the Richardson area north of Dallas. She defeated Randy Dunning, 53.2% to 46.8%. Button is the mainstream candidate, Dunning was wacky enough to get burned since he reminded me of Dale Gribble. The Democrat in this race is Sandra Phuong VuLe, which means that there will be at least one Asian-American serving in Austin.

That is it for tonight. See you around!

RUNOFF NIGHT

It has been almost a month since I last responded, but here are the early returns...

In CD22: Pete Olson is blowing Shelley Sekula Gibbs off the platoon. With 6% of the vote in the bag, Olson is trouncing "Temper Tantrum" Gibbs, 69 to 31 percent. Get ready for a general election brawl (vs. Nick Lampson).

Over in Harris: Pat Lykos is barely ahead of Kelly Siegler in the DA's race there. The winner gets C.O. Bradford (of HPD fame). And Ken Legler is leading the GOP runoff for the District 144 nomination to succeed Crazy Bob Talton.

And here in Fort Bend: Greg Ordeneaux is barely leading Tom Stavinoha in the fight for the Precinct 1 commish slot with a quarter of returns in. The Democrat the winner faces appears to be Richard Morrison.

This is still early, this is not Virginia.

More primary stuff...

I now have more information from last night...

HD26: Charlie Howard survived a challenge from Paula Stansell and Norm Ley. He will run unopposed.
HD27: Dora Olivo hangs on to win over Ron Reynolds. Next up: Steve Host.
HD140: Armando Walle defeats Kevin Bailey to take the cake in this district...no surprise given Bailey's ties to Tom Craddick.
HD146: Al Edwards gets his old job back, defeating Borris Miles. That's what happens when you barely win in a runoff as a challenger and make headlines going into the primary (i.e. flashing a gun at a party you weren't invited to, mysterious hospital visits, etc.)

In Harris County, County Judge Ed Emmett keeps his day job, defeating Charles Bacarisse. Emmett is the kind of person that can build bridges, so his victory shows that Republicans should appeal to every spectrum of the party, not just the "base". And Kelly Siegler will face Pat Lykos in the runoff (I am supporting Lykos) for District Attorney, a position I was elated to see Chuck Rosenthal vacate given his troubles and sheer arrogance.

Last, but certainly not least, here in Fort Bend, Sheriff Milton Wright fended off a challenge from Billy Frank Teague. And Tom Stavinoha will face Greg Ordeneaux in a runoff for the Republicans in Precinct 1 for County Commissioner, with the Democratic opponent being either Richard Morrison or Sharon Wallingford.

That's all for now...see you later!

PRIMARY NIGHT

Sorry I'm late, but I was over at a couple of campaign stops tonight. After a hard lesson with crawfish, I am now ready to oversee what I am seeing...

In CD22: Dean Hrbacek is coming up short right now...disappointing. The race now is a battle between Shelley Sekula Gibbs and Pete Olson, and I will give out my official endorsement eventually on that deal, even though many would rather not.

DEM Prez: Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are duking it out for the state of Texas, and Hillary just swallowed up Ohio and Rhode Island (Obama got Vermont).

GOP Prez: The main reason why we came up short compared to Democrats, but a good sign nonetheless as John McCain seals the deal tonight, hitting the magic number (1,191). The Dems continue to fight for delegates, no ifs, ands or Floridians and Michiganders about it.

Nonetheless, in both presidential races the precincts are reporting very slowly here.

DEM Senate: It is unclear if Rick Noriega will seal the deal tonight, but he should be their nominee against Sen. John Cornyn, who should be re-elected despite his closeness to Dubya.

Other congressional matchups (as of 11:30):
CD3: Sam Johnson vs. Tom Daley
CD4: Ralph Hall vs. Glenn Melancon
CD6: Dem results too close to call (Winner faces Joe Barton)
CD10: Michael McCaul will get Larry Joe Doherty as his opponent
CD14: Ron Paul wins GOP nomination for his congressional seat by 2-to-1 margin
CD16: Silvestre Reyes wins heavily for Dems
CD18: John Faulk wins right to take on Sheila "C-SPAN Beerfest" Jackson Lee
CD19: Randy Neugebauer vs. Dwight Fullingim
CD23: Lyle Larson will give Ciro Rodriguez a run for his money
CD27: No word yet on Solomon Ortiz's GOP challenger, be it George Benavidez or Willie Vaden
CD32: Eric Roberson and Steve Love will have a runoff, if the margins are consistent with what has come in from the one-third of precincts reported. They won't catch Pete Sessions, though

I will have more come daybreak...

Democrats 2, Republicans 1 = Not The Actual Perspective

Let's face it...In recent weeks, the Democrats have outpolled Republicans largely by a 2-to-1 margin. Some would point that there is more enthusiasm on the left side of the aisle than on the right. But from a broader perspective, a 2-to-1 Democrat majority at the polls is not very troubling to Texas Republicans, and what I will present will explain...

First, the presidential race is already over for the GOP. Polls show John McCain with a huge lead over Mike Huckabee. In spite of Huckabee's chances to appeal to socially conservative voters, he still comes up short compared to large McCain majorities witnessed in suburbs like those of Northern Virginia and Milwaukee after Mitt Romney dropped the ball (To be honest, Mitt would have carried Fort Bend had he stayed in it, and I was going for Rudy Giuliani well before he dropped the ball...I stayed in it well to the end). McCain has picked up Mitt (fiscal conservative), Rudy (classic moderate) and Fred Thompson (Southern conservative) as supporters, and more is surely to come for McCain. By contrast, Huckabee is practically in it either to give religious conservatives a choice, or better yet to give McCain a potential running mate opportunity. Ron Paul is no longer a factor in the race.

By contrast, the Democrats are now at a crossroads. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are playing the shell game when it comes to what they want to win, and who they want to win over. Therefore, Democrats are energized for the first time in years, independents already sold on a McCain GOP nomination are taking a look at this race, and Republicans themselves want to sweeten the pot.

In Clinton's case, she is betting on high voter turnout among older Americans, meat-and-potatoes Democrats who advocate minimum wage and health care, Latinos (older ones mainly), and those who believed in Bill Clinton's legacy. For Obama, the key to victory (and a November honeymoon with McCain...and Ralph Nader) focuses on younger voters (and I know many friends who are Obamacrats and Obamacans), wine-and-cheese Democrats and more affluent socially moderate-to-liberal Republican stereotypes, African-Americans, and those who want something different (including those who agree that Hillary is divisive). As Fort Bend is a family county, I cannot pick sides on this one since Fort Bend represents America, and America as a whole is diverse, united in pride and patriotism, and looking towards a brighter future, much in the same way Fort Bend is.

Therefore, the stakes are more divided in the Dems' den, and therefore the Democrats are the big primary for the moment. Not to mention John Edwards holding out on who to nominate, but he seems to be the eventual veep nominee.

Second, the numbers for early voting statewide show Democrats outpolling the GOP 3-to-1. In fact, only in Montgomery County (which went 3-to-1 for Bush in 2004) did the GOP outpoll Democrats, and cannot think of one Democrat holding elected office other than precinct chair in MonCo, just like the Republicans dominate countywide office here in Fort Bend (it probably won't be the case in Harris though courtesy of the Chuck Rosenthal scandal). Given the proportions, any county whose early voting for Republicans measured four percent or more of registrations this year suggests good prospects for Republicans in 2008...and that bodes well for Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Montgomery, and Williamson county GOPers.

Finally, Republicans have already settled on their choices. Save for the CD22 primary, Texas GOP pools have already been set in stone, with John Cornyn running for re-election, many Republicans without major opponents, and some members of the party now beginning to stand up for what they believe in instead of what their more controversial cohorts have done. In contrast, the Democrats have done poorly in capitalizing on their takeover of Congress, and now Democratic pundits in Austin are aiming to tie Republicans of all stripes, regardless of how independent their voting records are, to Rick Perry and Tom Craddick when in reality many GOP state representatives have taken shots at the two...Charlie Howard for instance attacked Perry for his stance on the HPV vaccine. When apples get compared to oranges, voters will eventually see that the views of a handful of organizations should not set the agenda for our state, or our country.

These facts should not discourage Republicans from going to the polls. We have a competitive CD22 race...a competitive HD26 race...competitive Precinct 1 races...and come May, a competitive race for Mayor in Sugar Land.

Vote March 4...it will be the one day you will never regret!

New predicted matchup: McCain vs. Obama

In tonight's Beltway/Chesapeake/Potomac/Capital Primaries...John McCain and Barack Obama came away with victories.

In Virginia, Mike Huckabee had the early edge thanks to religious conservatives in rural areas who don't realize that abortion and gay marriage are not issues worth talking about in this election; we only use the plank to appease those who otherwise would not elect a fiscally conservative or military-friendly Republican. My advice to rural evangelicals: the economy and Iraq are the big issues now, get over it.

But the victory for McCain can be credited to three places: the military communities in the Hampton Roads area as well as the Richmond area, but most importantly victory can be credited to the suburbs of Washington, D.C. To those in Northern Virginia who live in the cozy confines of affluent suburbia which tend towards the Tom Davis/John Warner variety of elephant bully pulpits (my term for top-tier GOP officials), we salute you.

Of course, for the Democrats victory goes to Barack Obama, whose message translated into wins across almost every metropolitan area in the Commonwealth. Only Southwest Virginia - Rep. Rick Boucher's slice of the state -- went to Hillary Clinton.

Obama also scored wins tonight in Maryland and the District of Columbia. John McCain did the same thing on the GOP side -- with less stress since Huckabee's social conservatism does not play well in the nation's capital -- or Maryland.

And it appears we'll have one or two more open seats. In Maryland's CD-4 (most of Prince George's County), Al Wynn is just about on his way out. Donna Edwards will be the new Congresswoman in what is a heavily African-American -- albeit strongly Democratic -- suburban Washington district.

And we could see a new congressman in CD-1, which George W. Bush won with 62% of the vote in 2004. This is a pretty much safe Republican district save a strong Democrat effort. But Wayne Gilchrest is essentially the Ron Paul of the Northeast, and unlike coastal Texans who are proudly Libertarian to an extent, Gilchrest is a tad more liberal than Paul in a number of ways. Right now, it is down to Maryland State Senator Andy Harris, who is now barely leading Gilchrest.

The election is looking rather interesting. More updates as they come.

P.S. The Writers' strike has just ended, a relief we can all enjoy. Now I can look forward to my favorite shows once again.

Previewing the Texas congressional primaries...

We are now less than a month from our state primary, and the stakes are high in the race for President, especially now that the Lone Star State has become key to both parties (especially in one). But we should not overlook the challenges present in the 32 congressional races...as well as the Senate election coming up this November.

Take note: Red is for Republicans, blue for Democrats, Libertarians are gold, and purple means they are Constitutionalists (supporters of the Constitution Party).

So now, here's a look at the 32 congressional seats and how they stack up:

District 1 (Tyler/Longview/Lufkin) - Louie Gohmert has held this seat since 2004 and had no trouble winning in 2006 against a weak Democrat on the ballot. This time, Gohmert is only facing token opposition from Constitutionalist James Stephen King and swimming pool contractor Roger Owen, who is now running as an independent. Odds: Gohmert with 75-80%.

District 2 (Humble/Kingwood/Beaumont) - Ted Poe also coasted last year with almost two-thirds of the vote. The strong GOP vote in Harris is enough to more than cancel out the Democrat union vote in Beaumont. And this time, he only has Libertarian Craig Wolfe to deal with. Odds: Poe with 75-80%.

District 3 (Plano/Richardson/Garland) - Sam Johnson represents what is arguably a strong GOP district nestled in the affluent northern suburbs of Dallas. Johnson is getting close to 80 years old and is speculated to retire sometime as early as the 2010 cycle. George W. Bush won two-thirds of the vote here, but Democrats gained ground in 2004 as John Kerry fared three points better than Al Gore did in 2000, whereas Dubya lost four, making it a Republican district that puts fiscal conservatism and pro-growth politics ahead of the concerns of the religious right (and Johnson fared worse in 2006 with only 62.5%). Two Republicans are challenging Johnson: businessman Wayne Avellanet and retired pilot Harry Pierce. The Democrats are fielding attorney Tom Daley and retiree Ron Minkow. Odds: Johnson will win 60-65%.

District 4 (Frisco/Rockwall/Sherman/Texarkana) - Ralph Hall is the oldest member of Congress, and Republicans predict he will retire in the foreseeable future. Four are stepping up to the plate to challenge Hall, the strongest candidates appearing to be NASCAR team owner Gene Christensen and former Frisco mayor Kathy Seei. Glenn Melancon is running on the Dem ticket again, and VaLinda Hathcox (a former candidate for Land Commissioner) is going to challenge Melancon for the right to face Hall...if the latter gets past the first round which he will likely do. Odds: The GOP, regardless of the candidate, should win 60-70%.

District 5 (Garland/Mesquite/northeast Dallas) - Republican Jeb Hensarling is a strong fiscal conservative nonetheless. And that's the kind of conservatism that wins votes in the 5th. Dubya scored two-thirds of the vote each time here. And Jeb will have it easy going this time, only token opposition exists. Odds: Hensarling 80-85%.

District 6 (Arlington/Corsicana/Ennis) - Joe Barton has been around for a long time -- ever since Phil Gramm traded in this seat for the Senate. The Democrats held him to 61% last time, but the two times before that showed two-thirds of the vote going to Barton...and Bush. Speaking of Bush, there is a Democrat running with the name Bush: attorney Steve Bush, and also educator Ludwig Otto. Odds: Barton in a walk 65-70%.

District 7 (West Houston) - Last time, John Culberson got 59% of the vote and in 2004 John Kerry gained ground over Bush, who lost five while Kerry gained four. But if it weren't for the religious right, this would still be the dominant GOP district in Greater Houston (a title the 8th holds for now). The Democrats are thinking Culberson is vulnerable and have fielded wind energy executive Michael Skelly. Nonetheless, Skelly's resume for a Democrat is very impressive: a successful energy entrepreneur (pro-business plank), has plans to put more health care in the hands of patients and doctors and not our government (not HillaryCare), supports a diplomatic surge in addition to our surge in Iraq (a very pragmatic approach nonetheless), and he is Irish-American. It should be noted that this was one of the best performing districts for Kinky Friedman, which shows that what's good for West Texas (George W. Bush, Rick Perry, Tom Craddick) is not necessarily good for west Houston, where private tolls are persona non grata. Another challenge is that the Democrats' strength is almost entirely concentrated in the eastern portion (around the purple confines of HD134 which includes Bellaire and West U), but much of west Houston (save for a few minority pockets) is GOP territory, and Culberson is a grassroots master, even if Skelly takes his message out to Jersey Village and the Memorial area. Odds: Culberson 55-65%.

District 8 (The Woodlands/Conroe/Huntsville/Jasper) - George W. Bush got 72% here last time and 69% in 2000, but Kevin Brady has typically done worse here, albeit by a couple of points (67.3% in 2006, 68.9% in 2004). The last two times, he faced a nutcase by the name of James Wright, having seen his archived website which is basically profanity-laced propaganda that looks more like a congressional campaign website run by a 4-year-old. This time, a saner Dem exists to challenge Brady: non-profit director and one-time Montgomery County Hospital District candidate Kent Hargett. Brady should win anyway. Odds: Brady with 65-70%.

District 9 (Southwest Houston and the South Side) - Democrat Al Green was unopposed last time, and will face token opposition this time. Odds: Green blows the opposition out of the water, 80-90%.

District 10 (North Austin/Northwest Harris/Brenham) - This is a very far-reaching district, and Republican Michael McCaul lost a lot of ground winning only 55.3% last time against a heavily underfunded Democrat. John Kerry also gained a lot in 2004 compared to Gore in 2000, 38% compared to Gore's 33%, and Bush lost six points between the lines. Two Democrats are on the ballot: television courtroom judge Larry Joe Doherty and Iraq contractor Dan Grant. Doherty will do well in rural areas, Grant in more urbane ones. The question is: which one will save the day on March 4? Yet the GOP should have no trouble winning this seat. Odds: McCaul 55-65%.

District 11 (Midland/Odessa/San Angelo) - This district should be a rout for Mike Conaway. Odds: Conaway 75-80%.

District 12 (Fort Worth) - Kay Granger is a relatively moderate Republican in a 2-to-1 GOP district. The Democrat is realtor Tracey Smith. Odds: Granger will win big, 65-75%.

District 13 (Amarillo/Wichita Falls) - Mac Thornberry is going to win another term, whether businessman Roger Waun likes it or not. Odds: Thornberry 75-80%.

District 14 (Victoria/Lake Jackson/Galveston/Cinco Ranch) - Ron Paul may be a second-tier candidate for President, but Paul's message resounds very well here in southeast Texas which he has proudly represented for many years and served as our first GOP congressman in decades. There are conservatives who don't like some of his stances, something Friendswood City Councilman Chris Peden hopes to take advantage of. Odds: Regardless of the Republican, and Paul is likely to win, the Democrat-less race will be a walk, 75-80%.

District 15 (McAllen/Beeville) - Ruben Hinojosa is a relatively moderate Democrat in the heavily rural and Hispanic South Texas region. Salesman Eddie Zamora is the GOP candidate this time, and Hinojosa should pull away as he has always done. Odds: Hinojosa takes home 60-65%.

District 16 (El Paso) - The last time a Republican faced Silvestre Reyes, the latter got two-thirds at the polls. That should be no different this time around. Odds: Reyes 65-70%.

District 17 (Waco/Bryan/College Station) - Chet Edwards has won in Central Texas by being a moderate Democrat and taking stances not representative of Democrat orthodoxy. Republican Rob Curnock is looking to prove Edwards vulnerable. Odds: Edwards 55-60%.

District 18 (Downtown Houston) - This district has traditionally been the hope of liberal African-American voters in southeast Texas, having produced Barbara Jordan, Mickey Leland, Craig Washington and the current incumbent, Sheila Jackson-Lee. Two Republicans who sharply disagree with her politics, Ron Paul activist John Faulk and magazine publisher TJ Baker Holm, are hoping to be the sacrifical lamb in November. Odds: Jackson-Lee 80-85%.

District 19 (Abilene/Lubbock) - Two Democrats are looking to take on Republican Randy Neugebauer in an arguably safe district that Neugebauer took control of in a special election when Larry Combest bailed out. Odds: Neugebauer takes home 70-80%.

District 20 (Most of San Antonio within Loop 410) - In a very Democratic and Hispanic district, one name stands above all: Gonzalez. And Charlie Gonzalez should have the race to himself over Republican retiree Robert Litoff. Odds: Gonzalez with 75-85%.

District 21 (Northeast San Antonio and the Hill Country) - Lamar Smith was the lone Republican survivor in a judicially mandated re-draw of the state's congressional districts. He will win handily -- with no Democrat on the ballot. Odds: Smith snags 75-80%.

District 22 (Sugar Land/Pearland/southeast Houston) - This was Tom DeLay's district -- which was surrendered to the Democrat incumbent, Nick Lampson thanks to our relegation to the write-in ballot, and a mediocre GOP candidate in former Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. As I mentioned on this blog earlier, I have endorsed former Sugar Land mayor Dean Hrbacek, a tax attorney with a strong record of cutting taxes. Among the others: John Manlove is also a former mayor (in this case Pasadena, and is backed by Sugar Land's current mayor, David Wallace as well as the mayors of Pearland, League City, Friendswood and Deer Park, among other areas). Pete Olson is a former Gramm and Cornyn aide. Jim Squier served as a District Court Judge. Bob Talton has legislative experience, which the others don't have. Cynthia Dunbar is a pro-ID conservative who serves on the State Board of Education. Kevyn Bazzy and Brian Klock are Army and Navy reservists, respectively. And Ryan Rowley is a high-tech Gulf War veteran. Whoever wins will have a great shot at taking back CD22. Odds: Lampson will be held to 40-50% in this 2-1 GOP district.

District 23 (Northwest and South San Antonio/Del Rio) - Democrat Ciro Rodriguez took this district out of Henry Bonilla's hands when the latter beared the wrath of a judicial redistricting. Attorney Quico Canseco has raised a lot of money, and Lyle Larson has served as a commish in Bexar County. Odds: Rodriguez will be held to 45-55%.

District 24 (The Mid-Cities of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex) - Republican Kenny Marchant snagged 60% in 2006, five points worse than Bush in 2004. This district has a lot of Hispanic voters, which explains the numbers above. Tom Love is the Democrat in the race. Odds: Marchant 60-65%.

District 25 (Austin and the Colorado Valley) - Democrat Lloyd Doggett got much of his Austin base back in 2006, but also got the Colorado Valley as well. Doggett is not vulnerable, though. The Republicans only have an environmental contractor, George Morovich, in the running. Odds: Doggett will win 60-70%.

District 26 (Denton County/northern Fort Worth) - Michael Burgess took home 60% in what was a relatively good year for the Democrats. The Dems have a former congressional aide vying for the seat, Ken Leach. Odds: Burgess wins anyway, 60-70%.

District 27 (Corpus Christi/Brownsville) - Any Democrat in South Texas who wonders why staunch liberals don't get elected here in the first place should go down to Corpus Christi, where Solomon Ortiz has held his own from the get-go (1982, to be specific). But Ortiz actually lost ground here in 2006, with only 57% of the vote and Bush actually won here in 2004, compared to a tie in 2000 with Al Gore. The Republicans are fielding two-time defending GOP candidate and former Ingleside mayor Willie Vaden, and George Benavidez as well. Odds: Ortiz wins 55-65%.

District 28 (Laredo) - Henry Cuellar is probably one of the most conservative Democrats - and arguably the most conservative minority Democrat - in Congress. Cuellar has staying power against Republican health care consultant Jim Fish. Odds: Cuellar 60-70%.

District 29 (East Houston) - Gene Green represents a strongly Hispanic district, but don't expect Green to face a challenge anytime soon given his 3-to-1 win last time. Eric Story is running again for the seat. Odds: Green wins 70-75%.

District 30 (South Dallas) - Eddie Bernice Johnson has been representing this heavily African-American and Hispanic district since its birth in 1992 and will roll over any Republican that comes into view. Odds: Johnson in a rout, 80-90%.

District 31 (North Austin suburbs/Fort Hood) - John Carter represents a 2-1 GOP district, but fell into the same trap as John Culberson above: surrendering almost 40% of the vote to an underfunded Democrat. But like Culberson, John Carter should have no trouble powering past his Democratic opponent this time, radio producer Brian Ruiz. Odds: Carter wins 55-65%.

District 32 (North Dallas) - Democrats have fielded three candidates in this North Dallas district: retired attorney Dennis Burns, realtor Steve Love, and attorney Eric Roberson. But despite a rather large Hispanic population (36% to be specific), the race should still be winnable for Republican incumbent Pete Sessions. After all, this is North Dallas. Odds: Sessions wins 55-65%.

Finally, I predict that the U.S. Senate race in Texas will pit incumbent Republican John Cornyn against Democrat State Representative Rick Noriega, and Cornyn will win 55-65%.

This is going to be an interesting election season. As time goes on, we'll see what happens.

The Lowdown on the Presidential Nomination

We have already gone through 10% of the primary phase (60% of it coming from the GOP)...and still no leader on the leaderboard. That of course will change as we approach Florida, which in my opinion represents the true depiction of America (unlike Iowa, which is not very diverse).

First, the Democrats, whose race is now down to Hillary and Barack...at least in terms of the likelihood factor. John Edwards should drop out, but hasn't yet. This is what has happened:

Iowa: Obama 1st, Edwards 2nd, Clinton 3rd, Richardson 4th, Biden 5th, Dodd 6th
New Hampshire: Clinton 1st, Obama 2nd, Edwards 3rd, Richardson 4th
Michigan: Clinton 1st, Uncommitted 2nd (Obama and Edwards skipped it when the Dems stripped Michigan of its delegates)
Nevada: Clinton 1st, Obama 2nd, Edwards a very, very distant 3rd

Now my predictions:
South Carolina: Obama 1st, Clinton 2nd, Edwards 3rd (drops out)
Florida: Clinton 1st, Obama 2nd (no delegates there either)

Let's face it, the Democrat race is as I said earlier, now down to Hillary and Barack. She'll take the momentum with her to Denver.

Now for the Grand Old Party, and what a Grand Old Party it has been!...

Iowa: Huckabee 1st, Romney 2nd, Thompson 3rd, McCain 4th, Paul 5th, Giuliani 6th, Hunter 7th, Tancredo 8th (dropped out earlier)
Wyoming: Romney won the county conventions
New Hampshire: McCain 1st, Romney 2nd, Huckabee 3rd, Giuliani 4th, Paul 5th, Thompson 6th, Hunter 7th
Michigan: Romney 1st, McCain 2nd, Huckabee 3rd, Paul 4th, Thompson 5th, Giuliani 6th, Hunter 7th
Nevada: Romney 1st, Paul 2nd, McCain 3rd, Huckabee 4th, Thompson 5th, Giuliani 6th, Hunter 7th (dropped out afterwards)
South Carolina: McCain 1st, Huckabee 2nd, Thompson 3rd, Romney 4th, Paul 5th, Giuliani 6th, Hunter 7th (didn't he drop out earlier?!?)

And then there were six: Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Paul, Romney and Thompson, though I may have to cut out the latter based on what happens in the coming days...and Florida is anyone's guess.

Come January 29th, and we'll have a better sense of what is going on.

My official endorsement for District 22...

In 2006, Tom DeLay left behind a strongly conservative congressional district that was viewed as "trending Democratic" due to DeLay's gerrymandering that made other Greater Houston districts more Republican (e.g. putting Galveston and Cinco Ranch in Ron Paul's District 14, putting River Oaks in John Culberson's District 7, etc.) while adding a heavily pro-union portion of Galveston County that is chock full of unionized refinery workers. In November of that year, I hoped that Shelley Sekula-Gibbs would help keep our district beaming red, as opposed to the Democrats' perceived confidence that a "real change" meant their so-called New Direction (and in other words, a Nick Lampson victory). I got 50% of what I wanted, with Shelley getting the rest of DeLay's term and Lampson the full new term with a Nancy Pelosi-led Congress. And I then again, I wanted David Wallace to be the GOP candidate instead of Sekula-Gibbs.

Both Shelley and Nick have fallen short. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs has been an embarrassment to the district, because when you begin your stay on Capitol Hill, you expect to serve your constituents (and your staff) with honor, not with a temper tantrum as evidenced by "The Walkout". And Nick Lampson, despite being touted among the least partisan Democrats, has even himself voted in lockstep with Nancy Pelosi's failed agenda (even the conservative Gene Taylor of Mississippi (from a district hit by Katrina) voted for Pelosi), which ranges from locking Republicans out of certain perks despite promises of an open and honest Congress to voting to expand the qualification pool for SCHIP, which is supposed to only go to those who truly need it (the ones who can't afford private plans but are too rich for Medicaid). Special services like SCHIP are meant to be for those who definitely need it, NOT those who choose to bilk the government for money, which in turn bloats our budget and causes deficits. Not to mention Lampson taking money from MoveOn.org, which took out a full page of the New York Times to condemn General Petraeus.

With David Wallace out of the race for Congress (and not running for re-election as mayor), GOP operatives in CD22 had to find a way to court (and energize) the "Anybody But Shelley" movement, because even some of her votes on Houston City Council (e.g. chasing out fellow City Councilmembers because of a debate against immigrant sanctuary on the day of a funeral for a Houston police officer killed by a Mexican national, supporting a national sales tax on many things (even cars), etc.) have been of a flip-flop nature. And the GOP has one candidate (of many) that will stand out amongst the crowd and possesses the best chance to send Nick Lampson back to Beaumont.

The candidate I am endorsing in CD22 is the former Mayor of Sugar Land: Dean Hrbacek. When Dean Hrbacek was mayor, our taxes went down 33%, our economic development rose from the ground, improved our mobility with the US 59 expansion (it may still be clogged now, but don't blame us, Fort Bend is growing fast). He has also enjoyed life in every part of the district, graduating in Pearland, going to college over in Clear Lake, going to the UH Law School, becoming a CPA, and running a tax law firm right here in Sugar Land. I would have still voted for Dean in 2002, only problem was I could not vote because I too young; my first election came in 2004 when I of course voted for DeLay and Dubya. Finally, I should mention that just because Dean Hrbacek supports traditional values (he is a lifetime member of the NRA and supports traditional marriage) doesn't mean there's no room for social moderates and social liberals. Regardless of whether you are pro-life or pro-choice, whether you support the war or don't, or whether you are pro-business or pro-labor, there is room for you in the Republican Party. Below I will explain to you why...

While Democrats choose to pride themselves on heavy cash coffers from corporate donors that tend to support a party that is in the majority more just to be on the "winning" team, and also depend on the support of celebrities and left-wing groups such as MoveOn.org, Republicans aim to attract the average American, and those who believe that good policy, not money is the key to victory. You may find it hard to see it now, and even I myself find it difficult to see positivity in the GOP, but when you look at legends like Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan, as well as current leaders of recent such as Rudy Giuliani (who ran a proven conservative government in one of the most liberal locales, New York City) and Arnold Schwarzenegger (who has come from behind to find new solutions to our global warming problems), you will find that Republicans are proven when it comes to empowering the individual to chart their own course in life, because it's your money and it's your life that matter more, not Washington's. I should also mention that Republicans have America's most popular governor, Charlie Crist of Florida.

In 2008, the GOP is energized and poised to prove the media (even Fox) and celebrities wrong: We are going to make it back to the plateau, and if any race should be a priority for the elephants, it should be getting Dean Hrbacek to Washington and restoring our district's conservative roots. And no, the district is NOT trending Democratic, it only has become fed up with partisan leadership (both of past Republican Congresses and the current Democrat one).

To find out more about Dean Hrbacek, go here: deanforcongress.com