The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part L: New York

And so, after six long months of traversing through the American political landscape, I am proud to say that the Nifty Fifty House Party for 2008 has finally reached its final stop this year. After crossing through the home state of Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, the Bullet Train to November heads eastward to a state that plays a significant role in the American and world economy, and this year, a significant role in the future of Congress...

NEW YORK

From its early beginnings in the 1600s as the Dutch colony known as New Netherlands, the Empire State has played a pivotal role in the life of the United States, whose Constitution was ratified by New York, the 11th state to do so, on July 26, 1788. Much of the state is dotted with forests, rivers and farms, and the nation's largest state park, Adirondack Park, is situated here. Despite its relative sparseness, 92 percent of New Yorkers (the whole state) reside in urban areas largely concentrated around New York City. In fact, its center of population is located in Orange County, an exurban county outside New York City, which comprises two-thirds of the state's population and forms the core of the BosWash megalopolis that stretches from the Boston area to the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C. While it is a slow growth state with a large out-of-state migration rate, New York is a leading destination for immigrants from all over the world; 20 percent of New Yorkers are foreign-born.

The New York economy is the third largest in America, worth $1.02 trillion, which would be the world's 16th largest economy if New York was an entire nation. The state's agricultural outputs include nursery stock, dairy, cattle, maple syrup and various fruits and vegetables including cabbage (the nation's largest producer), onions, apples, cherries and grapes (including 30,000 acres of vineyards). Its industrial sectors include publishing, auto parts, garments and scientific equipment, largely concentrated in Upstate New York, while nanotechnology is a major sector in the Albany and Hudson Valley regions and imaging equipment serves an integral part of Rochester's economy. New York City, the nation's largest city, is a major global cultural and financial center, home to many of the largest corporations in the world, various financial services firms, exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ, and numerous attractions from Lincoln Center and Central Park to Times Square and the Statue of Liberty.

A swing state as recent as 1988, New York has emerged as one of the most Democratic states in the country. The state's political liberalism is largely the result of heavily Democratic New York City, where all but one member of its current congressional delegation is a Democrat, as well as the conservative nature of the current Republican Party establishment. Outside of New York City, its suburbs tend to be swing areas, but have leaned more towards the Democrats in recent years. While Upstate New York tends to be more conservative and Republican than the Big Apple, its Republican base is more moderate in comparison to the national party, while Upstate Democrats tend to do well in more urban areas such as Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester and Albany.

One unique aspect of New York politics is electoral fusion, where multiple political parties (such as the Conservative, Working Families and Independence parties) unite behind one candidate. In New York City, it was used to fight Tammany Hall (via the 1933 election of Republican mayor Fiorello La Guardia), the infamous Democratic machine that controlled the city's political establishment well into the postwar era before collapsing in the 1960s. Conservatives usually back Republicans, while Working Families candidates tend to hand out endorsements to Democrats, and candidates of the Independence Party comprise of candidates from both major parties. This year, Barack Obama is expected to carry New York, which is not surprising given that Republicans last won here in Ronald Reagan's 1984 landslide. Meanwhile, the GOP is being targeted for defeat in four of its six congressional seats, with pickups certain in three cases (and especially in one), and another race being closely fought.

Fusion Legend: R = Republican, D = Democrat, C = Conservative, I = Independence, WF = Working Families

District 1 (S-Factor 3.8 DEM): Since first being elected in 2002, Tim Bishop (D/I/WF) never won this district with more than two-thirds of the vote, and this year, attorney and Iraq War vet Lee Zeldin (R/C) is running a dark horse bid for this otherwise fairly competitive seat based in eastern areas of Long Island, including Riverhead, Centereach, Smithtown, and the Hamptons. In a normal season, it would be a competitive race, but a poor GOP climate nationally will make a pickup opportunity a hard sell. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 8.3 DEM): When Rick Lazio challenged Hillary Clinton for the U.S. Senate seat held by Pat Moynihan in 2000, Steve Israel (D/I/WF) ran for this seat -- and won. Since then, this fairly competitive district, largely based in western Suffolk County including such areas as Huntington, Brentwood, Commack and Babylon, as well as a portion of Oyster Bay in Nassau County, has become a safe seat for the incumbent. Businessman Frank Stalzer (R/C) will try. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 2.5 DEM): In 2006, House Homeland Security Committee Ranking Member Peter King (R/C/I) faced a strong challenge for his historically Republican Long Island seat that includes Levittown, Oyster Bay and Lindenhurst against Nassau County Legislator Dave Mejias, but prevailed with 56 percent of the vote. The only Republican congressman on Long Island, King is heavily favored this year for reelection over economic development consultant Graham Long (D/WF). Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 10.0 DEM): Carolyn McCarthy (D/I/WF) will be favored to defend this seat against Mineola Mayor Jack Martins (R/C), who is running a dark horse campaign for this fairly Democratic district based in southwest Nassau County that includes Valley Stream, Hempstead and Garden City. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 18.0 DEM): Gary Ackerman (D/I/WF) is heavily favored for reelection in this largely liberal district that covers northern areas of Queens (Flushing, Bayside, Jamaica Estates) and Nassau County (Manhasset, Port Washington) over Republican attorney Liz Berney and Conservative retired immigration officer Jun Policarpio. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 38.0 DEM): Gregory Meeks (D/WF) is heavily favored for reelection in this heavily Democratic Queens (Jamaica, Saint Albans, Cambria Heights) district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 7 (S-Factor 27.5 DEM): Incumbent Joe Crowley (D/WF) will cruise to victory in this Bronx (Pelham Bay, Morris Park)/Queens (Jackson Heights, College Point) district for another term over Bronx Conservative Party Treasurer William Britt (R/C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 27.3 DEM): Jerrold Nadler (D/WF) will win another term in this district that cuts across Manhattan's Upper West Side and such neighborhoods as Greenwich Village and SoHo, as well as parts of Brooklyn (Bensonhurst, Seagate, Coney Island) over financial executive Grace Lin (R/C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 14.0 DEM): Anthony Weiner (D/WF) is a potential Democratic candidate for Mayor of New York City in 2009. This year, the Brooklyn (Flatlands, Mill Basin) and Queens (Kew Gardens, Forest Hills)-based incumbent will be heavily favored over Alfred Donohue (C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 10 (S-Factor 39.8 DEM): Ed Towns (D) fended off a primary challenge from hip hop activist, essayist and former reality TV cast member Kevin Powell in the Democratic primary last month and is now heavily favored to defeat Salvatore Grupico (R/C) in this Brooklyn-based (Bedford-Stuyvesant, Canarsie, Ocean Hill) district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 11 (S-Factor 39.3 DEM): Freshman Yvette Clarke (D/WF) is strongly favored for reelection in this district that takes in the heart of Brooklyn, including Crown Heights, Flatbush and Prospect Heights. Republicans are fielding Hugh Carr, and Conservatives have realtor Cartrell Gore. Neither one has a shot. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 12 (S-Factor 32.8 DEM): Nydia Velázquez (D/WF), who in 1992 became the first ever Puerto Rican woman elected to Congress and the current chair of the House Small Business Committee, should have no trouble defeating frequent candidate Allan Romaguera (R/C) in this district that splits across the NYC boroughs of Brooklyn (Red Hook, Sunset Park), Queens (Maspeth, Woodside), and Manhattan (part of the Lower East Side). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 13 (S-Factor 1.3 DEM): While there are many Republican seats that Democrats are targeting this year and have a good shot at snagging, nothing compares to this district based in Staten Island and portions of Brooklyn including Bay Ridge and Dyker Heights. In fact, it was the last seat to become open (minus one death and two primary defeats that took place afterwards). Vito Fossella was favored for reelection to this district, the most Republican of the New York City seats, until he was stopped for a DWI while driving to see his family -- a family other than the one he is actually married to (Fossella was convicted of this charge on October 17th). When it was revealed that he had an extramarital affair and fathered a child out of wedlock, many called for Fossella to resign or retire, the latter of which did happen.

And if Fossella not seeking reelection was enough to turn heads in the "forgotten borough", the process to find a Republican successor was even more startling. One by one, such notables as District Attorney Dan Donovan and State Senator Andrew Lanza passed over the race, and Republicans settled on Wall Street executive Frank Powers, but not without a family feud: his son Fran Powers considered running as the Libertarian nominee. Then, on the morning of June 22nd, the elder Powers died of a heart attack. And so the party started searching again, and a similar crop of candidates (albeit a lower tier) passed on the race as well, leaving the GOP with former State Assemblyman Bob Straniere, who once represented Staten Island, but moved to Manhattan after he was defeated for reelection in a 2004 primary. To quote a former Staten Island Congressman:

"They couldn't have made a worse mistake. The party was already in desperate shape. They've all but buried it."

- Former Congressman Guy Molinari (R-NY, 1981-1989)

Meanwhile, the Democrats came right off the bat with New York City Councilor Mike McMahon (D/WF) who is now favored to win over Conservative high school development director Tim Cochrane and Independence insurance executive Carmine Morano. Given the nature of this odd race and the GOP climate as it stands, I am going to risk my reputation (and me possibly being called a "liberal" which I am certainly not) on this one... Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 14 (S-Factor 26.3 DEM): Carolyn Maloney (D/WF) first assumed this affluent, liberal district in 1992 when she defeated moderate Republican Bill Green for this East Side Manhattan and Queens (Astoria, Sunnyside) district. Republican attorney Robert Heim and Libertarian Isaiah Matos will try. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 15 (S-Factor 42.3 DEM): This district based in Upper Manhattan including Harlem, Washington Heights and Marble Hill has been the domain of House Ways and Means Committee Chair Charlie Rangel (D/WF) since 1971, and Republican paralegal Ed Daniels will find it very difficult to knock off the longtime incumbent. Martín Koppel is running as the Socialist Workers candidate and Craig Schley is running as an independent. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 16 (S-Factor 43.0 DEM): Another tough district for Republicans: José Serrano (D/WF) should have no trouble fending off Ali Mohamed (R/C). George W. Bush only got ten percent here in 2004 and in 2000, six percent in this district based in the Bronx including neighborhoods such as Bedford Park, Melrose, and Fordham. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 17 (S-Factor 21.0 DEM): Eliot Engel (D/I/WF) will easily defeat Robert Goodman (R/C) in a district that covers neighborhoods and towns such as Riverdale and Woodlawn in the Bronx, Nanuet, Suffern and Spring Valley in Rockland County, and Mount Vernon and Yonkers in Westchester County. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 18 (S-Factor 10.5 DEM): Nita Lowey (D/WF) will be heavily favored for another term in this fairly liberal district that covers portions of Westchester (White Plains, Ossining, New Rochelle) and Rockland (New City) counties over Jim Russell (R/C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 19 (S-Factor 1.0 GOP): In 2006, Democrat John Hall scored an upset victory over incumbent Republican Sue Kelly in this district that stretches across several of New York's Hudson Valley suburbs including all of Putnam and parts of Westchester, Orange, Rockland and Dutchess counties. Republicans' chances at taking back this seat were sidelined when Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board Chairman Andrew Saul dropped out of the race despite posting receipts of $1.47 million through March of this year. The Republican nominee is Iraq War vet and national security activist Kieran Michael Lalor. Fundraising is a major obstacle: Lalor trails the incumbent both in receipts ($544K versus Hall's $2.17 million) and money in the bank ($40K versus the incumbent's $465K). Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 20 (S-Factor 2.0 GOP): Kirsten Gillibrand (D/WF) was the Democrats' control switcher in 2006, becoming the 15th Democrat to pickup a Republican seat that year by defeating Republican John Sweeney, who came under fire due to an incident of domestic violence in which his wife had called police complaining that Sweeney had been "knocking her around". And 15 was the magic number Democrats needed to obtain a majority. The Republicans are fighting back with former New York Secretary of State and former state Republican Party Chair Sandy Treadwell (R/C/I), a former journalist for Sports Illustrated. While he is one of the stronger Republican recruits in this cycle and has raised a total of $6.9 million ($5.9 million of which came from his own pocket), a trifecta of obstacles exist: Gillibrand has $4.48 million in total receipts this cycle (with $3.15 million coming from individual donors), the power of incumbency, and a toxic GOP atmosphere in her favor. The district covers a large swath of Upstate New York surrounding the capital city of Albany including Glens Falls and Saratoga Springs in the north and Hudson in the south. Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 21 (S-Factor 8.8 DEM): While the retirement slates are filled with Republicans, longtime Democrat Mike McNulty is one clear exception. The 10-term incumbent decided not to seek reelection to his traditionally Democratic Capital District (Albany, Schenectady, Troy) seat. The Democrats are looking to former New York State Energy Research and Development Authority President and former State Assemblyman Paul Tonko (D/WF) to keep the seat blue. Republicans, meanwhile, are offering Schenectady County Legislator Jim Buhrmaster (R/C). The Independence Party candidate is Albany County Legislator Phil Steck, who unsuccessfully challenged Tonko for the Dem nod. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 22 (S-Factor 6.0 DEM): This is a fairly competitive seat situated in such cities as Binghamton, Ithaca, Poughkeepsie and Middletown, but Maurice Hinchey (D/I/WF) with should have no trouble knocking off teacher and former congressional aide George Phillips (R/C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 23 (S-Factor 0.0): John McHugh (R/C/I) will be favored for another term against attorney Mike Oot (D/WF) in this split Watertown- and Plattsburgh-centric district. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 24 (S-Factor 0.0): In 2006, when longtime Republican Sherwood Boehlert called it a career after 24 years in this Upstate district based in Utica as well as outlying areas of Syracuse, Oneida County District Attorney Mike Arcuri (D/WF) stepped up to the challenge to flip the seat, facing off against Republican State Senator Ray Meier and winning with 54 percent of the vote in what was seen as a highly competitive seat that year. This year, with the advantage of incumbency, Arcuri will be favored to defeat construction executive Richard Hanna (R/C/I), who has been competitive with $744K in total receipts versus Arcuri's $1.48 million (and outpaces the incumbent in the bank, $345K to $132K), but is facing a difficult GOP climate. Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 25 (S-Factor 3.5 DEM): Longtime Republican incumbent Jim Walsh faced a close race in this swingy Syracuse-to-suburban Rochester district where he was held to 51 percent of the vote. Walsh is retiring, but his 2006 challenger, former congressional aide Dan Maffei (D/WF), is running once again and will aim to flip the seat against former Onondaga County Legislature Chairman Dale Sweetland (R/C) and Green and Socialist candidate Howie Hawkins, a co-founder of the United States Green Party. Sweetland has struggled mightly in fundraising, with only $365K in receipts compared to Maffei's $2.01 million. Based those numbers as well as recent polling (double-digit leads for Maffei), for the Elephant Stampede, this seat can be considered a goner. Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 26 (S-Factor 3.3 GOP): In 2006, then-NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds barely prevailed against industralist Jack Davis, 52-48 in a district that connects suburbs in the Buffalo and Rochester areas including North Tonawanda, Greece, Lockport and Batavia. This year, Reynolds is retiring and businessman Chris Lee (R/C/I) has stepped up to the plate to hold the seat for the GOP. On the Dem side, Davis ran again while the D-Trip had high hopes for Iraq War vet Jon Powers, who was seen as a stronger candidate to take the seat for the Democrats. However, Powers ended up finishing second in the primary, but the well-funded Davis didn't snag the nomination. Instead, it went to environmental attorney Alice Kryzan, who eventually got the D-Trip's endorsement. So far, Lee maintains a slight advantage as evidenced by polling numbers as well as fundraising totals, with Lee having raised $1.52 million including $620K of his own money and Kryzan raking in $801K including $157K coming from Kryzan herself. Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 27 (S-Factor 7.3 DEM): Buffalo and its southern suburbs dominate the district of Brian Higgins (D/WF), who won this seat in 2004 when Republican Jack Quinn decided to call it a career. Higgins is favored to win over tanning salon entrepreneur Dan Humiston (R/I) and retired PR executive Budd Schroeder (C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 28 (S-Factor 15.5 DEM): Incumbent Louise Slaughter (D/I/WF), Chairwoman of the House Rules Committee, will be favored in her bid for a 12th term in this district that stretches out from Niagara Falls to the Rochester area. Accountant David Crimmen (R/C) will try to prove otherwise. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 29 (S-Factor 4.8 GOP): Randy Kuhl (R/C/I) represents the most conservative district in the Empire State, situated in the Southern Tier of the state including the Elmira, Corning and Olean areas, as well as suburbs south of Rochester. Kuhl came to Congress in 2004 to succeed moderate Republican Amo Houghton as the standard bearer for this district. But getting reelected has not been easy for Kuhl; in 2006 he only won 52 percent against retired naval officer Eric Massa (D/WF) a former aide to four-star General and 2004 Democratic presidential candidate Wesley Clark who left the GOP over the war in Iraq. Massa is running again, and the fundraising picture tells a story: both men are waging competitive bids with Massa posting $1.79 million in total receipts and $234K cash on hand and Kuhl racking up $1.35 million with $209K in the bank. One recent independent poll shows Kuhl trailing Massa in recent polling, albeit by single digits. Not surprisingly, this is a bad GOP year: a toxic climate, a shaky economy, a fundraising crisis, and squandered and ineffective political ideas will make reelection difficult for even the safest elephants all across America. As for this race, it will be tough to a T. Prediction: Tossup.

CONCLUSION

After six months of going through 50 states, a third of the Senate, and non-voting delegates (one of which will be brand new going into the 111th Congress), all I can say is that it has been a pleasure to cover the arduous task of taking a look at every congressional seat in the United States. It was not an easy job taking a closer look at what will amount to be our most important election in a lifetime, and in fact, given the rigors of this series, the blog's priorities were heavily shifted from the local political scene in my home base (as well as other topics of my blog), which personally made my blog look somewhat out of place.

In the end, after tinkering and experimenting with various features, the final five states in this segment set the formula: each segment began with one or two opening paragraphs that focused largely on aspects of that state's economic base because the economy is the dominant and number one issue on the minds of American voters this year. Then it focused on one or two paragraphs relating to the political situation both traditionally and in the current year. Finally, the districts were reviewed, and in reviewing everything from fundraising totals to voter trends to the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates, I did the best I could to make my analysis as credible, informative, and unbiased as possible, even though there were times when I let out my inner partisan, which was the last thing I would have wanted in my analysis.

As the 2008 election season draws to a close, I clearly understand that competing with a flurry of more established (and in some cases, more biased, whether left or right) sources was not very easy, but as I look back at the last six months, all I can say is that I am very proud of the analysis I have done and regret nothing. This was the very first time I had ever embarked upon such an ambitious project, and while it was not perfect in the end, the one thing that does matter is that all I tried to be in my analysis was honest, because in a world where one slip of the tongue can deliver a crushing blow to one's credibility and self-esteem, honesty matters more than anything.

As for 2008, this year will be a historic election, and one that will set the stage for the direction of the next generation of Americans. I am looking forward to Election Day, and I am sure the same rings true for millions of Americans across the entire country who feel just as optimistic about the future of their country as I do.

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XLIX: Illinois

After traversing through the beaches and citrus groves of Florida, the Bullet Train to November now heads to a very familiar state in the 2008 race for the White House, where this year the political message runs on a message of change...

ILLINOIS

The largest state in the Midwestern United States, Illinois is often seen as a microcosm of the entire country. One such example is the city of Peoria, where it was said within Vaudeville circles that a certain act's success in Peoria would guarantee it success anywhere. The question "Will it play in Peoria?" now applies to test marketing on various subjects from household products to policy polls, of which Peoria remains a frequent test market despite recent demographic changes in other parts of the country.

Illinois boasts the nation's fifth-largest economy worth $589 billion, with leading industries including chemicals, food processing, plastics, coal mining, and electronics, as well as a significant agriculture base that produces soybeans, corn, dairy and cattle among other crops. In fact, the state's corn crops produce 40 percent of the nation's ethanol and its soybean crops rank first among the 50 states in most years. The state is also fifth in electricity production (first in nuclear power capacity) and seventh in consumption, and serves as a major hub for transportation due to its centralized location. While a largely rural state, the state's population is dominated by Chicago, the nation's third-largest city where over one-fifth of the state's 12.8 million residents reside and which serves as a major center of financial services, tourism and publishing.

Illinois has historically been a swing state, but in recent years has become the Midwest's most Democratic state, largely due to the influence of heavily Democratic Chicago as well as recent inroads by Democrats in the traditionally Republican suburbs of Chicago. Outside of Chicagoland, the northern and central portions of the state tend to be more Republican while southern Illinois has traditionally voted Democratic. The state served as the political base of Presidents Abraham Lincoln and Ulysses S. Grant, and the birth state of another president, Ronald Reagan. This year, Barack Obama will attempt to become the third president from the Land of Lincoln and make history as the first African American elected to hold the White House. With that in mind, Illinois' other U.S. Senator, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin will be up for reelection and is heavily favored, and the state's congressional delegation, particularly on the Republican side, will aim to fight back against an expected Obama wave.

District 1 (S-Factor 34.5 DEM): Democrat Bobby Rush has been the standard-bearer for this staunchly Democratic district that covers much of Chicago's South Side as well as such south Cook County suburbs as Evergreen Park and Blue Island. He should have no trouble defeating Republican Cook County correctional officer Antoine Members this year. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 34.5 DEM): In this heavily liberal and Democratic district based in southern suburbs of Chicago including Calumet City, Harvey and Chicago Heights, Democrat Jesse Jackson Jr. (that's right, the son of Jesse Jackson) is heavily favored over Republican Anthony Williams. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 10.5 DEM): Dan Lipinski is a moderate by Chicago Democratic standards, and it subjected him to primary challenges from more liberal Democrats in this western Cook County district that includes parts of Chicago and suburbs such as Berwyn, Palos Hills and Oak Lawn. However, they have not been successful with Lipinski pulling off 53 percent of the vote against more liberal competition and the incumbent is now favored to defeat Republican realtor Michael Hawkins. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 30.3 DEM): This unusual district connects two heavily Hispanic portions of Chicago through a narrow strip along Interstate 294, with the northern portion containing a significant Puerto Rican population and the southern part including a large Mexican population. Incumbent Democrat Luis Gutiérrez, who is of Puerto Rican descent, will be heavily favored to win another term over Republican Daniel Cunningham. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 17.5 DEM): Four years after succeeding Governor Rod Blagojevich in this North Side Chicago district that includes the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, Democrat Rahm Emanuel was rewarded for his work as chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (the D-Trip) in the 2006 Dem takeover with the position of House Democratic Caucus Chairman. This year, Emanuel is favored to defeat Republican commercial real estate broker Tom Hanson. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 2.5 GOP): This historically Republican seat is situated in the bulk of the affluent DuPage County suburbs of Chicago, including such towns as Wheaton, Lombard and Carol Stream as well as parts of northwestern Cook County. After a 32-year reign by the late Henry Hyde, Republican Peter Roskam stepped in to succeed the former Chairman of the House Judiciary (1995-2001) and Foreign Affairs (2001-2007) Committees and notable pro-life advocate (known for the Hyde Amendment), but not without a fight: Roskam had to fend off decorated Iraq War vet and Democrat Tammy Duckworth in a race that some thought would swing in Duckworth's favor due to her enormous war chest ($4.52 million versus Roskam's $3.44 million). In the end, Roskam prevailed with 51 percent of the vote. This year, Roskam will face another Democratic Iraq War vet, former Illinois Homeland Security Advisor Jill Morgenthaler, who the D-Trip has hailed as an "emerging" candidate but lacks the warchest of Duckworth (only $740K in total receipts and $101K cash on hand compared to Roskam's warchest of $2.39 million and COH totals of $694K). Then again, imagine what the impact of an Obama campaign in the Senator's home state can do... Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 34.5 DEM): This district is situated in the downtown and west and south sides of Chicago and some western Cook County suburbs. Longtime Democrat Danny Davis will be heavily favored to knock off Republican businessman and Navy vet Steve Miller. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 4.5 GOP): Democrat Melissa Bean entered Congress in 2004 by upending longtime (think 35 years) Republican Phil Crane in a district that covers several northwestern suburbs of Chicago, including Schaumburg, Palatine and McHenry. Republicans have tried unsuccessfully to unseat Bean, who has crafted a more moderate image in comparison to most other Chicagoland Democrats. Wholesaler and former minor league hockey player Steve Greenberg is the GOP candidate in a district that is historically Republican, but compared to Bean's $3 million in receipts, and $349K cash on hand, Greenberg has raised $940K and has only $24K left in the bank. With Obama at the top of the ballot, it will not be easy to wrest this one out of the Donkey Brigade. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 19.8 DEM): This covers some of Chicago's North Shore suburbs, including Evanston, Skokie, Des Plaines and Niles, as well as part of Chicago's North Side. Generally liberal in orientation, it is heavily favorable territory for Democrat Jan Schakowsky over Republican businessman and Air Force vet Michael Younan. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 10 (S-Factor 3.8 DEM): Parts of Lake County (Waukegan, Highland Park) and some other affluent northern Chicago suburbs (Northbrook, Arlington Heights) fall into this historically Republican district situated along the North Shore that has been the domain of moderate Republican Mark Kirk since he succeeded John Edward Porter in 2000. In 2006, Kirk faced a strong challenge from marketing executive Dan Seals who held the incumbent to 53 percent in 2006. There will be a rematch this time, and with Obama at the top of the ticket, Kirk will need every bit of the $4.83 million he has raised to knock off Seals and his $3 million. Prediction: Tossup.

District 11 (S-Factor 0.8 GOP): With Jerry Weller getting roasted over land deals in Nicaragua among other issues, the incumbent Republican has decided to call it a career after seven terms in this district that largely sits in burgeoning Will County (Joliet) as well as some areas of north central Illinois including Bloomington. The Democrats have scored a major coup with State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson, while Republicans have had quite a scenario: losing its initial nominee, Chicago Ridge police chief and New Lenox mayor Tim Baldermann, when he pulled out of the race. Now they have another, much more well-heeled candidate in businessman Marty Ozinga, who runs a family-owned concrete business. Halvorson is aided by political experience and the ballot presence of Obama, while cash competitiveness (as well as the unpopularity of Governor Blagojevich) may help Ozinga. The polls tell a different story...Halvorson has consistently been in the lead. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 12 (S-Factor 5.0 DEM): Longtime Democrat Jerry Costello will be favored for another term in this southern Illinois district (East St. Louis, Belleville, Carbondale) over college student and Navy vet Tim Richardson. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 13 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): Moderate Republican Judy Biggert has generally won reelection without difficulty in this historically Republican seat based in Chicago's southwestern suburbs including Naperville, Downers Grove, Bolingbrook and Orland Park. Obama's presence at the top of the ticket along with the usual playbook of the Democrats (tie the incumbent to a president who isn't even on the ballot) could be beneficial to marketing executive Scott Harper, who the D-Trip is hailing as an "emerging" candidate. Money talks: Biggert has $1.25 million in receipts, $405K cash on hand, and experience. Harper has $873K raised, $253K available, and the prospect of Obamatails. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 14 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): When former House Speaker Dennis Hastert bid adieu to his historically Republican seat, it launched a free-for-all of sorts with a number of candidates from both parties apiece seeking this district situated largely in the growing Fox Valley exurbs of Chicago (Aurora, Elgin) and stretching out to towns such as DeKalb and Dixon. The Republicans nominated investment banker and dairy magnate Jim Oberweis, a former candidate for U.S. Senate in 2002 and 2004 and for Governor in 2006, to run in a district that also includes the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, or Fermilab. And out of the Fermilab came physicist and businessman Bill Foster, who snagged the nomination for the Democrats. In the end, Foster defeated Oberweis in a special election where he won 53 percent of the vote. Both men are running again, this time with Foster having the advantages of incumbency (and Obamatails present). Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 15 (S-Factor 5.8 GOP): Moderate Republican Tim Johnson will be favored for another term in this Central Illinois district that includes areas such as Champaign, Mattoon and Danville over Vietnam vet and retired State Department employee Steve Cox. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 16 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): Don Manzullo has represented this northern Illinois seat that stretches out from the Rockford area eastward to some suburbs of Chicago such as Crystal Lake since 1992. Barrington Hills Village President Bob Abboud is the Democrat-in-waiting. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 17 (S-Factor 4.8 DEM): Freshman Democrat Phil Hare has no opponents in this district that includes the Decatur, Quincy and Quad Cities (Moline, Rock Island) areas. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 18 (S-Factor 5.3 GOP): Ray LaHood is leaving behind this historically Republican seat based in Peoria and Springfield that landed in his hands in 1994 when he succeeded then-outgoing House Minority Leader Bob Michel in a year when Republicans took control of the House. A wunderkind is the GOP nominee this time around in 27-year old State Representative Aaron Schock, who started his career as a member of the Peoria School Board when he was a 19-year-old Bradley University student and later served as its President before entering his current position in 2004. The Democrats had a rockier situation with finding a nominee, first settling on former NBA coach and TV commentator Dick Versace until he bowed out of the race. Substituting Versace is former radio and television broadcaster Colleen Callahan, who will have an uphill battle of sorts going up against Schock. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 19 (S-Factor 7.5 GOP): John Shimkus represents the most conservative district in Illinois, situated in rural southern Illinois including Springfield, Centralia and Collinsville. The Democrat-in-waiting is Illinois Department of Public Health official Daniel Davis. Prediction: Solid GOP.

Next stop: The last state...

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part XLVIII: Florida

With only six days left before America decides, the Bullet Train to November now heads southeast from the rugged terrain of Utah to a state marked by rapid growth, an economy of leisure, and a reputation for not being your normal swing state...

FLORIDA

Once home to Spanish, English and French settlements centuries ago, Florida became the 27th state admitted to the Union on March 3, 1845, and seceded just 16 years later to briefly join the Confederate States of America. Since returning to the Union following the end of the Civil War, Florida has emerged as one of the fastest-growing states in the country, having grown with each Census by over 20 percent over its history, and is now the fourth most populous state, on the verge of surpassing New York to become number three on the rankings of largest states within a few years.

The state's economy, the nation's fourth largest, is largely defined by a tourist economy of 60 million visitors annually; such attractions include amusement parks such as Walt Disney World, Busch Gardens, SeaWorld and Universal Orlando, Major League Baseball spring training particularly in the central portion of the state, cruise ship ports at the Port of Miami, auto racing events such as the Daytona 500, and hundreds of miles of beaches throughout the state. Other major industries include international banking in Miami, a large aerospace economy buoyed by the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, and agriculture including two-thirds of America's citrus production.

As opposed to its strongly Democratic past, present-day Florida is best defined as a swing state, having only voted for the Democrat in 1964, 1976 and 1996. South Florida, including the Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach areas which have a significant Jewish population, has traditionally voted more liberal and Democratic compared with the rest of the state, with a notable exception being its Cuban American population which has historically been more conservative and Republican in comparison. Meanwhile, northern areas of the state such as Pensacola and Jacksonville with significant military voting blocs as well as the Fort Myers area in southwest Florida tend to vote Republican. The swing area in Florida is along the burgeoning jurisdiction of Interstate 4, which connects the rather competitive Orlando and Tampa/St. Petersburg areas (though most of the suburbs in both metro areas tend to vote Republican whereas the larger cities are more Democratic). Senior citizens, who make up a quarter of the state's population, are also a key and growing voting bloc in Florida which makes issues such as retirement security highly important.

In the race for the White House, the 2000 election was especially controversial as recount proceedings dragged on into December of that year, with the final result being a 537-vote margin in favor of George W. Bush, who would also go on to win the 2004 election by a more comfortable five percent margin. This year, recent polls have been slightly favoring Barack Obama over John McCain for the state's 27 electoral votes, while several House seats across the state are facing some competition in one form or another.

District 1 (S-Factor 18.8 GOP): This is Joe Scarborough's old congressional district, based in Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach and Destin and largely influenced by military and veterans' issues. While Democrats have a plurality in this conservative district, it has proven to be favorable territory for Jeff Miller, who should have no troubling defeating Democratic businessman and Vietnam vet Jim Bryan. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 (S-Factor 2.0 GOP): The capital city of Tallahassee and Panama City dominate this rather competitive district that has been held by Democrat Allen Boyd since 1996. Marketing executive Mark Mulligan is the GOP nominee. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 16.5 DEM): This is the most unusual district outside of South Florida, taking in majority African-American segments of Jacksonville and Orlando, as well as parts of Gainesville. Corrine Brown, the only person ever to hold the seat since the creation of its current incarnation, is running unopposed. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 15.0 GOP): Ander Crenshaw will be favored for re-election in this conservative district based in Jacksonville and some of its surrounding areas including Atlantic Beach, Yulee, Lake City, and areas east of Tallahassee. Democrats will try with professional engineer and Navy vet Jay McGovern. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 4.5 GOP): Ginny Brown-Waite seized this district from Democrat Karen Thurman in 2002. It is based in the southern tail of the Nature Coast region that includes much of Tampa's northern suburban areas including Brooksville, Homosassa Springs and Zephyrhills. Her 2006 Democratic opponent, John Russell is running again. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): Cliff Stearns represents a district that includes Ocala and western areas of Jacksonville, as well as the portion of Gainesville that includes the University of Florida, Stearns is favored for re-election against Democratic entrepreneur and attorney Tim Cunha. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): Republican John Mica, chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, will be favored for re-election in this district, which stretches from St. Augustine southward to Palm Coast, Daytona Beach, and northern suburbs of Orlando including Deltona and Altamonte Springs, against Democrat Faye Armitage. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 8 (S-Factor 3.3 GOP): This competitive district, based in Orlando and some of its surrounding suburbs (Eustis, Conway, Ocoee), has been the domain of Republican Ric Keller since 2000. But Keller, who faced a close challenge from Democratic businessman Charlie Stuart in 2006, has alienated some voters in part due to his breaking of a pledge to serve no more than four terms, and faced another close call -- this time in the GOP primary -- against scandal-plagued radio talker Todd Long, winning with only 53 percent of the vote. As for the Democrats, Stuart lost this year's primary, but their nominee is of note: attorney and former telecom executive Alan Grayson is best known for his recent crusade against fraudulent contractors in Iraq. Grayson may also benefit from a growing Hispanic population (particularly Puerto Ricans). While Keller is not to be counted out, the prospects for reelection already are dimming, if they haven't already. Prediction: Tossup.

District 9 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): After succeeding his father Michael Bilirakis in 2006, incumbent Gus Bilirakis will be favored over attorney Bill Mitchell in this north suburban Tampa district. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 10 (S-Factor 1.3 DEM): Since 1970, Republican Bill Young has been the standard bearer in this swing district based in much of Pinellas County including St. Petersburg and some of its surrounding areas including Pinellas Park, Largo and Dunedin. Young will face Dunedin mayor Bob Hackworth. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 11 (S-Factor 11.8 DEM): Freshman Democrat Kathy Castor is safe in this district based in Tampa and St. Petersburg. She will easily defeat Republican architect Eddie Adams Jr., whom Castor defeated in 2006. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 12 (S-Factor 5.0 GOP): In this district centered in suburbs east of Tampa including Lakeland, Brandon and Winter Haven, Republican Adam Putnam, who first came to this district in 2001 as the youngest member of Congress and is now House Republican Conference Chairman, will be favored over Democratic Navy vet Doug Tudor. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 13 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): Something must be fishy about this Sarasota-centric district. In 2002, Katherine Harris, the Florida Secretary of State who became famous for her role in the 2000 election snafu, became the district's representative. Then, while Harris became the GOP U.S. Senate nominee -- and lost -- against incumbent Bill Nelson in 2006, Republican auto dealer Vern Buchanan barely held on to victory over Democratic banker Christine Jennings with a mere 369 votes. The recount, triggered by Jennings, dragged on into the new Congress. Jennings is running once again, but Buchanan will have the advantages of incumbency and favorable polling numbers aiding him in this fairly competitive district. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 14 (S-Factor 9.8 GOP): The name Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy, while it is a rather unusual name, has some meaning in the early-20th century sports world. The first Connie Mack was the longtime two score and a half manager of the Philadelphia Athletics long before they moved to California, and the second served as an executive for that team before going into real estate in Fort Myers. The third became a U.S. Senator from Florida, and the fourth came to Congress in 2004 to replace then-newly minted CIA Director Porter Goss in this strongly Republican Fort Myers-based district and is now heavily favored to defeat businessman Robert Neeld. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 15 (S-Factor 3.8 GOP): After 14 years in Congress, Republican Dave Weldon has decided to go back to his medical practice, putting his district situated in such cities as Vero Beach, Kissimmee and Melbourne in play. Republicans have recruited State Senator Bill Posey for this seat, while physician Steve Blythe has the Democrats' nomination. The D-Trip is not watching this race. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 16 (S-Factor 2.5 GOP): This historically Republican district that serves as a boundary of sorts between Central and South Florida, going from Port Charlotte to Punta Gorda and parts of the West Palm Beach area, became competitive in 2006 when then-incumbent Republican Mark Foley came under the microscope for sending explicit e-mails to former Congressional pages and turned what would have evolved as an "emerging race" by the D-Trip in 2006 into a full-fledged battle as Foley resigned. Democratic entrepreneur Tim Mahoney wound up benefitting, defeating Republican State Representative Joe Negron, whose name could not replace Foley on the ballot despite holding Mahoney to 49.5 percent and a margin of 1.8 percent. On the GOP side, Negron is not running again, but the Elephant Stampede is still targeting this seat with Army vet and attorney Tom Rooney, who beat two other well-funded challengers to win a very expensive primary. The nastiness enabled Mahoney to become a slight favorite until revelations that Mahoney himself had an affair with a mistress (and at least one other) began to emerge. Now Mahoney is damaged goods with only a few days remaining 'til the Sunshine State decides. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 17 (S-Factor 35.3 DEM): This is one of two majority African-American districts in South Florida, taking in northern areas of Miami and stretching northward to Hollywood and Pembroke Pines. Kendrick Meek is unopposed. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 18 (S-Factor 4.3 GOP): Ileana Ros-Lehtinen made history in 1989 by becoming the first Cuban American woman ever to be elected to Congress. Her district covers much of Miami, Coral Gables and the Florida Keys. The D-Trip is targeting this race with Colombian American businesswoman Annette Taddeo, who has raised an impressive warchest of $966K and has the backing of the D-Trip. But Ros-Lehtinen's warchest is more significant ($1.64 million and $730K cash on hand versus Taddeo's COH of $5K) and polls have shown Ros-Lehtinen with a double-digit advantage. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 19 (S-Factor 20.8 DEM): Robert Wexler will be heavily favored for re-election in his strongly Democratic West Palm Beach-area district (which also includes Greenacres, Margate and Coral Springs) against building contractor Edward Lynch. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 20 (S-Factor 17.8 DEM): Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who first represented this Fort Lauderdale-area district (which also includes Aventura, Dania Beach, Weston and Wilton Manors) in 2004 to succeed unsuccessful U.S. Senate candidate Peter Deutsch, will be favored for re-election without a Republican opponent. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 21 (S-Factor 5.8 GOP): Democrats are targeting all three of South Florida's Cuban-American districts, and of the three, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, whose district is situated in areas west of Miami including Hialeah, Kendall and Olympia Heights, is the most vulnerable. Former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez is running a strong campaign against the eight-term incumbent in a race that pits two of the most prominent Cuban American leaders in all of South Florida. On the financial front, Diaz-Balart has amassed a warchest of $2.74 million and has $2.63 million cash on hand (the latter from previous races), while Martinez has been competitive with $1.77 million raised and $693K in the bank. For the most part, Diaz-Balart has been barely ahead of Martinez with polling margins generally in the single digits. But in a poor GOP climate, Martinez could pull off an upset. Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 22 (S-Factor 3.3 DEM): Being the former State Senate Minority Leader and the best-financed challenger in the nation in 2006, Ron Klein was the perfect candidate for Democrats in this district that stretches southward along the Atlantic Ocean from West Palm Beach to Boca Raton. Klein used his enormous warchest which eventually amounted to $4.19 million to take out longtime Republican Clay Shaw. This year, he will face Iraq War vet Allen West, a retired Army officer and African American Republican whose fundraising has struggled to keep pace with Klein (the incumbent has $3.79 million in receipts and $1.82 million cash on hand while West has only $476K in funds raised and $129K COH). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 23 (S-Factor 30.5 DEM): One bad apple spoiled the resume for Alcee Hastings, who was being sought for the chairmanship of the House Intelligence Committee, as revelations of his 1989 conviction for corruption and perjury that resulted in the loss of his federal judgeship came back to haunt him. But Hastings is a safe bet for reelection in this heavily Democratic, majority African American district situated in the Florida Everglades against med school professor and physician Marion Thorpe Jr. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 24 (S-Factor 3.0 GOP): This suburban Orlando/Space Coast district (Winter Park, Titusville, Port Orange) was drawn to elect then-Florida House Speaker Tom Feeney, who served in this position during the controversial 2000 Florida recount, in which Feeney was in charge of efforts to certify Florida's Republican electors to the Electoral College. Now Feeney is facing controversy over reports that, among other controversies, Feeney went to Scotland on a golfing trip paid for by disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. In fact, Feeney recently put out an ad apologizing for the trip. The D-Trip is targeting this seat with former State Representative Suzanne Kosmas whose warchest of $1.71 million in receipts has been competitive with Feeney's $1.99 million. However, with a Dem internal showing Kosmas with a double-digit lead (23 points to be specific) and the NRCC pulling the plug on Feeney, a pickup appears likely. Prediction: Leans DEM.

District 25 (S-Factor 4.0 GOP): This is the newest of the three Cuban-American seats in South Florida, situated in the southern end of the state between Fort Myers and Miami. Mario Diaz-Balart has represented this seat from the start (the district was created following the 2000 Census). The D-Trip is also targeting the seat, with the former chair of Miami-Dade's Democratic establishment, Joe Garcia, who also happens to be the former Executive Director of the Cuban American National Foundation. This profile has bolstered Garcia's campaign, which has amassed $1.48 million in total receipts. But the younger Diaz-Balart also has a strong warchest, boasting a total of $2.3 million raised and a huge cash on hand advantage: $1.62 million to Garcia's $235K. Like the race in the nearby 21st District, this race will also be close. Prediction: Leans GOP.

Next stop: 2 states left...and they are big ones!