The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part X: Minnesota

Previously, I went through Colorado, a state that Democrats claim is their golden ticket come November given their recent successes in that state and their upcoming convention being held in that state's capital city of Denver. Now the focus shifts to the state where Republicans will be gathering this year to put a new spin on the Elephants Club...

MINNESOTA

Minnesota's three nicknames can be derived from three sports teams, one of which is now in Texas (North Star State = the NHL's Dallas Stars), another which is now down 2-3 in this year's NBA Finals (Land of 10,000 Lakes = the Los Angeles Lakers), and a third of which graces the state's BCS university (The Gopher State = the Golden Gophers of the University of Minnesota). While it is a very large state, three-fifths of it are situated in the Minneapolis-St. Paul region, known collectively as the "Twin Cities". Minnesota is one of the most educated states in America, which is not surprising given that a great amount of educational software provided to us in elementary school was by the Minnesota Educational Computing Corporation, or MECC (think The Oregon Trail), which eventually evolved into The Learning Company (who also provided us with a wealth of educational computer programs).

Minnesota is also a leader in alternative energy, with over 300 service stations offering E85 fuel, and a wind power presence in the state's southwestern portions. With much thanks to the Twin Cities, Minnesota also houses a vibrant arts scene, with strong attendance figures at performing arts venues throughout the region, and the state has even produced its own stars including Bob Dylan, Prince, Soul Asylum, comedian Craig Kilborn, the Coen Brothers, Judy Garland, and Snoopy (Peanuts creator Charles Schulz hails from Minnesota). The Minnesota State Fair is a major attraction that draws hundreds of thousands of guests every year, and winter sports from hockey to curling to ice fishing are common pastimes. Minnesota is home to 3M, retailers Target and Best Buy, and the world-renowned Mayo Clinic.

Politically, progressive policies, along with intensive community involvement, have been the hallmark of the state. Minnesotans are heavily involved in regular exercise, have low rates of everything bad (third lowest infant mortality rate for instance) and high rates of everything good (91% health insurance rate). Its political stylings are very quirky. The Democrats are not Democrats, but instead DFLers (short for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party). The Independence Party, a very strong third party here, is the state's version of Ross Perot's Reform Party, which helped elect professional wrestler Jesse Ventura Governor in 1998. The Republicans are led statewide by Governor Tim Pawlenty, and this year the GOP will be holding its national convention in St. Paul's Xcel Energy Center. However, Minnesota has not shaken off its progressive batter, and the DFL has fielded liberal humorist Al Franken to take on Republican U.S. Senator Norm Coleman, all making for a very interesting election cycle where the Donkey Brigade also aims to reduce the GOP's congressional delegation to a quarter.

NOTE: The primary is on September 9, 2008. Predictions could change based on various circumstances.

District 1 (S-Factor 0.5 GOP): When Gil Gutknecht ran in 1994, he promised voters in this southern Minnesota district (Rochester, Mankato, and the Mayo Clinic) he would serve no more than six terms. Gutknecht chose to run for a seventh, and his ploy backfired in his 2006 defeat to Tim Walz, a teacher, coach and retired member of the National Guard from Mankato. Since then, well over a million dollars been raised by Walz, the more moderate of the 2007 newcomers from Minnesota. Republicans (and the NRCC) have coalesced around Mayo Clinic physician Brian Davis, but State Senator Dick Day will march on to the primary. Wonder if this will make things a little dicey for the GOP, along with the fact that each of the two elephants-in-waiting have cash-on-hand figures under $100K. Prediction: Favor DFL.

District 2 (S-Factor 2.3 GOP): Of the three suburban Twin Cities districts, this covers the south (Apple Valley, Eagan, Burnsville, Lakeville and the counties of Carver, Dakota and Scott). John Kline first came into existence when he spooked redistricted DFLer Bill Luther in 2002. FBI whistleblower Coleen Rowley held Kline to 56% in 2006, but she will not be back this time. Instead, Kline will face former Watertown Mayor Steve Sarvi. Sarvi brags of an internal poll that shows this district as a pickup opportunity, but Kline's funding train is so far outpacing Sarvi for the moment. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 3 (S-Factor 0.3 GOP): Moderate Republican Jim Ramstad represents the most affluent of the three suburban Twin Cities districts (Edina, Minnetonka, Bloomington, Eden Prairie, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth, Coon Rapids), centered in areas west of Minneapolis that are fiscally conservative, socially moderate. Usually, the Republicans dominate life in this district, but an upsurge of moderate DFLers courtesy of the 2006 legislative elections have given the DFL hope, especially now that Ramstad won't be seeking office after nine terms. But the GOP has someone for the seat: former House Republican Leader Erik Paulsen, to fall in the footsteps of Ramstad and Bill Frenzel, whom the incumbent succeeded. The DFL battle, however, was about as messy as the national presidential picture. It all came down to State Senator Terri Bonoff, who built her campaign around the suburban-oriented moderate tack taken by Hillary Clinton, and Iraq War Veteran Ashwin Madia, whose campaign was centered on the change path taken by Barack Obama. In the end, Madia, himself a former Republican (even supporting John McCain in 2000) upended the favored Bonoff. Paulsen has the inside track, but Madia could ride along Obama's coattails. The question is: who has the pull? Prediction: Tossup.

District 4 (S-Factor 12.8 DFL): St. Paul, where Norm Coleman was once mayor, is the dominant focus of this heavily Democratic district which is represented by Betty McCollum. Accountant Ed Matthews is running on the GOP side. Prediction: Solid DFL.

District 5 (S-Factor 20.8 DFL): This is the most liberal district in all of Minnesota, taking in Minneapolis and some surrounding areas, and Keith Ellison, the most liberal of Minnesota's three newcomers from 2006, made history by becoming the first African American member of Congress from Minnesota and Congress' first-ever Muslim. While his candidacy came with some doubts at first in 2006, he is now a legitimate bet for re-election in 2008 over minister Barb Davis White. Prediction: Solid DFL.

District 6 (S-Factor 5.0 GOP): The last of the suburban Twin Cities districts centers on its northern and eastern suburbs (Blaine, Ramsey, St. Cloud, Woodbury, Andover). Michele Bachmann is the most conservative of the three Minnesotans new to Congress this cycle. While she fought off child safety advocate Patty Wetterling by an eight-point margin, some initial gaffes have somewhat stalled her credibility. Elwyn Tinklenberg, a moderate DFLer, is hoping to help shut the GOP out of the state's congressional delegation, but the money edge points to Bachmann. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 5.0 GOP): The northwestern and western shavings of Minnesota, from Bemidji to Moorhead and Fergus Falls on down to Willmar, comprise this heavily rural district. House Ag Committee Chair Collin Peterson has often won re-election to this relatively conservative district, and his GOP challenger, Glen Menze, has yet to impress (and it is most likely going to be a struggle). Prediction: Solid DFL.

District 8 (S-Factor 4.5 DFL): This is my grandfather's native district, centered in his birthplace of Duluth and all of northeastern Minnesota, including Brainerd and International Falls. The district's congressman, House Transportation and Infrastructure Chair Jim Oberstar, has served in the House for 17 terms, even knocking off former U.S. Senator Rod Grams in 2006 with nearly 64%. So far, the GOP has yet to field a challenger. Prediction: Solid DFL.

Next stop: South Carolina.